Wangari Maathai Memorial Lecture Micro Business College, Ambo

Transcription

1 Wangari Maathai Memorial Lecture Micro Business College, Ambo Challenge of the Balance: A 21 st Century narrative on Environment and Development Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General India

2 Anthropocene Epoch Anthropocene period humans are changing the planet Research published from University College of London & Leeds University puts 1610 as the the date of start of Anthropocene a century after Columbus found Americas and Europeans started colonising.

3 Orbis Spike & Little Ice Age

4 Cyclone Pam & global warming Destroyed Vanuatu 90% of housing in Vanuatu s capital, Port Vila, badly damaged by winds of up to 250km/h Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines to the recent floods in Malawito unseasonal rainfalland and hailstorms in India, extreme weather events are hitting the poorest of the world.

5 1. Humans are changing climate systems Recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are highest in history The atmospheric concentration of key greenhouse gases is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years, Warming of climate system is unequivocal

6 Increasing emissions

7 Rising concentration: 400 ppm CO 2 Since 1750, concentrations of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O have increased by 40%, 150% and 20%, respectively

8 Temperature: 0.85 O C over ; last 3 decades warmest

9 2. Impacts are unprecedented Since 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented dover decades d to millennia i omany terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have started t dt to adapt (hiftdth (shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns etc.) in response to ongoing climatechange change

10 Sea level rise: Over by 0.19 m Global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 mm/yr between and 3.2 mm/yr between

11 Acidity of the Oceans is increasing Since the industrial revolution, the ocean has become 26 percent more acidic and its ph level is falling

12 Shrinking Arctic Ice: million km 2 per decade since 1979 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Glaciers have continued to shrink worldwide

13 Extreme weather events are increasing

14 3. Poor countries and poor communities suffered most o Climate change has started to erode developmental gains o Between 2001 and 2006 low income countries lost about 0.3% GDP due to extreme events; developed nations lost only about 0.1%. Rapidly developing countries, India and China, lost about 1% of their GDP o Climate change has already affected the hydrological systems in many countries and reduced dcrop yields

15 4. Impacts are going to get worse o Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all scenarios. o Heat waves will occur more often and last longer o Extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. o Ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise. o Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people, species and ecosystems.

16 Severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts

17 The Climate Challenge: Global 2 O C pathways

18 With limits to technology Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T)

19 The Technology Conundrum Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T) P 2050 = 1.67 P 2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion)

20 The Technology Conundrum Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T) P 2050 = 1.67 P 2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion) C 2050 = 4 C 2000 (2 3% annual increase)

21 The Technology Conundrum Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T) P 2050 = 1.67 P 2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion) C 2050 = 4 C 2000 (2 3% annual increase) E 2050 = 1/7 E 2000 (85% below 2000 level)

22 The Technology Conundrum Emission (E) = Population (P) x Consumption (C) x Emission intensity of Technology(T) P 2050 = 1.67 P 2000 ( 6 billion to 10 billion) C 2050 = 4 C 2000 (2 3% annual increase) E 2050 = 1/7 E 2000 (85% below 2000 level) T 2050 = 1/47 T 2000 (7.5%/yr. improvement)

23 Efficiency is not sufficiency

24 The true climate challenge What kind of global regime can enable this to happen? 24

25 The Development Challenges 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels More than 1.5 billion people without electricity More than 1 billion have no access to clean water About 800 million people chronically undernourished 2 million children die every year from diarrhea 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases 25

26 In a world with rising inequality 26

27 In a truly unequal world In 2016, for the first time in human history 1% people will own more wealth than remaining 99% Inequality rising everywhere Poorest half of population in both developed and developing world controls less than 10% of wealth Income inequality equals inequality of opportunity and extends to gender, ethnicity, disability, and age. Inequality = bad development = political instability, violence and conflict 27

28 Recap We are changing the climatic system with disastrous results for the poorand the ecosystem Climate change is eroding development gains Urgent action required to reduce emissions to keep global temperature rise below 2 O C. Technology alone can not reduce emissions 20% of the world consumes 80% of resources Large parts of the world is under developed and a largepartof humanity is poorand yet to start consuming 28

29 Flawed economic model Current growth model; highly capital, resource and pollution intensive Small populations; use disproportionate share of resources; create huge pollution; invest massive amounts in containing adverse impacts of growth; but continue to stay behind the problem Current model of environmental management not able to contain pollution. Current economic model not working to meet the needs of all We need to reinvent economic environment environment model 29

30 A new economic environment model? How to eradicate eadcatepoverty? How to achieve sustainable models of consumption and production? How to provide for development for all in a carbon constrained constrained world? How to build resilient economies especially for the most vulnerable? How to get to a green economy?

31 Narrative 1: A new economic indicator to measure prosperity GDP does not provide po dethe right tsg signals asfor valuing au growth, which is just and sustainable (many perverse incentives) Bhutan: Gross National Happiness France: Commission on the Measurement of economic Performance and Social Progress Set of indicators to that promotes not growth but welfare, inclusive development, equality and environment sustainability

32 Narrative 2: Equal rights & entitlement to global commons to all Create Ceateaa global goba and national a framework for equal rights and entitlement to global atmospheric space for all, which will in turn build conditions for limits on consumption and production Without this framework, it is clear that the world has no real incentive to move away from its current unsustainable economic growth model.

33 Apportioning global commons

34 Narrative 3: Build ecological assets & the resilience of local ecosystems Availability aab tyof water for drinking, irrigation & ecosystem will be key for improving livelihoods and well being of people p The way to build a water resilient society is to promote community owned decentralised water management assets; every drop of water is harvested and recycled and reused. Global right to work programme (MNREGA in India) to build ecological assets employment & resilient ecosystem

35 Narrative 4: Leapfrog the technology treadmill From fossil fuel and dcentralised grid dto renewable e abe energy and decentralised grid Fromresource resource and energy inefficient buildings and cities to sustainable cities and green buildings Frompersonal mobility to most advanced public transport Fromenergy inefficient appliances to most efficient gadgets (incandescent to LEDs) We arestill building, we have the opportunity to leapfrog

36 Narrative 5: From products to services We need mobility not cars; communication and not mobile phones; cooling & heating and not air conditioners; shelter and not buildings We need services and not products Our businesses, therefore, have to move from selling products to selling services Selling products is about selling increasing numbers each year this is growth every year more material each year more resource extraction & pollution Selling services is about saving material increasing the life of products less resources

37 Narrative 6: From global to local production & consumption Direct investment e t and dpolicy and fiscal incentives es for local production and local consumption High value export led, mechanised production and consumption gets dollars, taxes and few wealthy people; p not jobs, equality and sustainability Localization is the new development paradigm building local grids, small industries, organic argiculture, smart cities Selling services (not products)

38 Challenge of the balance The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed. M.K.Gandhi 38