Climate change and water (food) security
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1 Climate change and water (food) security By Prof Tore Furevik Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of BSRS on water, climate & society, 14 June 2016
2 Earth deserves it nick name the blue planet. It is the only known planet to have stable bodies of liquid water on its surface. Essential for all life forms as we know them. 71% of the surface is covered by water. Distributed equally over the planet, would make a 2700 m tick layer. Only a tiny fraction available to mankind. Drinking water, agriculture, industry, energy. Water is vital for all natural and human systems. The availability is threatened by climate change. 2
3 Water cycle Climate change Climate extremes Risks and impacts Future climate Food produc9on Paris agreement 3
4
5 5 Water cycle
6 Water on Earth 3 km Global warming 100 m 1 m All water, floating freshwater, available 6
7 Water and Climate 3 km Liquid form World oceans absorbs / transports heat Ground water drinking water, agriculture Soil moisture food, regulates climate Lakes drinking water, agriculture Rivers - water supply, hydropower, erosion Precipitation drinking water, soil moisture Clouds Reflection, regulates climate Global warming 100 m 1 m Frozen form Ice caps Antarctica and Greenland Other glaciers, sea ice, snow cover permafrost - Reflection, water storage, sea level, erosion Gas form Water vapour Greenhouse effect, evaporation, precipitation, heat transport 7
8 Direct (1000 km 3 yr -1 ) From energy 1000 km 3 yr -1 = m 3 s -1 Rodell et al (2015) The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century
9 Annual evaporation Ellen Viste Bjerknes Centre
10 Annual precipitation Ellen Viste Bjerknes Centre
11 The green planet Ellen Viste Bjerknes Centre
12 Seasonal migration of rainfall NASA
13 Transport of water in the atmosphere Mats Bentsen Bjerknes Centre
14 October 2014 Flooding in West- Norway 14
15 Odda, 29 October 2014 Rune Sævig/Heidi Grotle, BT
16 Climate change 16
17 1000 ton CO 2 per second April 2015: 400,8 ppm (April 2016: ppm) Nasa, April 2015 NASA, 3. April 2015
18 Drivers: popula9on, economy, energy, carbon intensity (Total CO 2 =popula9on x bnp/capita x energy/bnp x CO 2 /energy) Shanghai 19. April Photo: Johannes Eisele, AFP
19 Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 19 Helge Drange, Bjerknes Centre
20 Global temperature Helge Drange, Bjerknes Centre
21 Global temperature Helge Drange, Bjerknes Centre
22 Global temperature change Ed Hawkins, U Reading
23 Global precipitation trend More precipitation high latitude and tropics. Less in subtropics. IPCC AR5 SPM
24 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Climate extremes
25 Global distribu9on of temperatures <= Extremely cold Very cold Cold Normal Warm Very hot Extremely hot => 1/20 yrs 1/400 yrs Hansen et al, 2012
26 Central European heat wave summer 2003 (Jul-Aug anomaly) Madrid London Paris Oslo Roma JJA temperatures 3.6 C above normal 30,000-50,000 dead of heat stress Italy: 36% drop in maize yields France: 30% decrease maize, 25% in fruit harvests, 21% in wheat yields Refs: UNEP 2007; Easterling 2007; Earth Policy Institute 2006; Eurosurveillence 2005
27 Russian heat wave Summer summer 2010 Lasted one month Ca dead of heat stress 25% reduction in crops Estimated costs: 15 bus$ Unusual weather + global warming Source: Wikipedia
28 US heat wave and drought summer August 2012: Half of US counties designated disaster zone End of September: 64% of US has drought 51% of the maize and 38% of soybeans rated poor or very poor by US Dep. of Agriculture By far the most expensive natural disaster in US history ( bill USD)
29 Impacts can be global
30 Heat waves. May 2015 India. July 2015 Europe.
31 Droughts. Dec 2015 Somalia, Ethiopia and California California 1. Dec 2015 Light Red = Extreme drought Dark red = Exceptional drought
32 Heat waves. May 2016 India, Thailand, Canada
33 Fort McMurray, Canada 2400 houses destroyed
34 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Risks and impacts
35 Risk a function of three factors IPCC AR5 WG2 fig TS-1
36 Many factors lead to vulnerability IPCC AR5 WG2 fig 13.5
37 Impacts of climate extremes Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes ( )
38 More weather- and climate events? Four 9mes more reported events in four decades Floods and storms most frequent Floods increased most WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes
39 Billion US$ 1000 Higher economic costs? Total loss : 864 billion USD Five 9mes increase Floods and storms highest loss Storms increased most WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes
40 Higher death tolls? Total deaths : people. No overall trends Economic development More resilient socie9es A new type of risks extreme temperatures : deaths in Europe WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes
41 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Future climate
42 Temperature changes towards the end of this century ( business as usual scenario) O ºC ( C, vs , RCP8.5) Bjerknes Bjerknessenteret Centre
43 Percentage chance for a growing season to be warmer than ever observed Percent (%) Battisti og Naylor (2009)
44 Changes evapora9on minus precipita9on (Red areas = dryer, Blue areas = we_er) (mm/day, vs , RCP8.5) IPCC AR5 Bjerknessenteret technical summary
45 Extreme summer temperatures + less precipitation => droughts Drought index (PSDI) based on 22 climate models (SRES A1B) Dryer Wetter Serious drought 45 Dai, Clim. Change (2010)
46 Change in mean annual streamflow for a 2 deg warming IPCC AR5 WG2 Fig TS-6
47 Change in flood frequency (present 100 years event) IPCC AR5 WG2 Fig TS-6
48 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Food produc9on
49 Effects of climate change on production of maize Global loss similar to total annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) Lobell et al, 2011
50 Effects of climate change on production of wheat Global loss similar to total annual production of wheat in France (33 MT) Lobell et al, 2011
51 Effects of climate change on food production IPCC AR5 SPM Fig 2
52 Less food, more variable crop yield IPCC AR5 WG2 Fig 7-7
53 Climate driven changes in food production 2000 to % -25% 0% +25% +50% % change between yrs 2000 and 2050 Müller mfl. (2010) Wheeler & von Braun (2013)
54 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Paris agreement
55 The 2 C target and carbon budget What we can use in total 790 GtC Have used : 515 GtC What is left 275 GtC 2/3 of our carbon budget already used 3/4 of all known oil, gas, coal resources must stay in ground (Unless large-scale carbon capture and storage) IPCC AR5 WGI SPM
56 Saturday 12 Dec 2015 at 7.27pm: I see the positive reactions, I see no objections, the Paris agreement is adopted!
57
58 The Paris agreement ü covers all countries, all emissions (Kyoto only 10-15%) ü builds on 186 national climate plans that will be revised and strengthened every 5. year ü will keep warming well below 2 degrees and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1,5 degrees (requires negative emissions in latter part of the century) ü From 2020 at least 100 billion USD each year for technology support to poor countries. ü Poor countries impacted by climate change can get support, but no automatics
59 Paris agreement requires rapid and strong emission cuts and nega9ve emissions a`er 2050? Is it possibly to achieve the 1,5 degree target? Published by AAAS Fawcett et al. Science, 2015
60 Renewable energy still small but fastest increasing Global carbon project
61 Wind and solar energy revolu9on Bloomberg.com
62 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Conclusion
63 We are on a path towards 4 C warming by the end of the 21 st century Huge nega9ve impacts due to extreme summer temperatures, droughts or flooding, sea level rise, food produc9on, Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland Some impacts beyond adaptation limits for natural and human systems Paris mee9ng for the first 9me an agreement encompassing all na9ons, all emissions Poli9cal, economical, technological trends point in the same direc9on: A green shi` has started, and will accelerate in the coming years!
64 Sist det var 2 grader varmere på Grønland THE END
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