Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources,

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014"

Transcription

1 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, Highlights This document sets out the forecasts for GDP growth, the labor market, price fluctuations, State revenues from taxes and revenues from other sources in The document is divided into five sections: Section I describes in brief the methodology of the macroeconomic forecasts. Section II lists the key assumptions; Section III presents the macroeconomic forecasts and the reasons for the anticipated changes in the different components. Chapter IV presents the forecasts for State revenues from taxes, and Section V presents the forecasts for revenue from other sources. Section I: Forecasting Methodology The forecast model is an econometric model consisting of two parts. The first part estimates the GDP components in nominal terms and the fluctuations in prices of the GDP components, on a quarterly basis. The second part generates forecasts for aggregates in the labor market. In addition to the model-based forecasting, the forecasts relate to two areas of specific relevance to the budget years: (a) the start of natural gas production from the Tamar reserve; (b) the effect of the fiscal consolidation. 1

2 Start of Natural Gas Production from the Tamar Reserve As of the end of March 2013, natural gas is being produced from the Tamar reserve on an annual scope of 4.5 BCM, with the rate or production expected to increase gradually until 2015, when production will amount to 10.5 BCM per year. Concurrently with the start of production from the Tamar reserve, production from the Yam Tethys reserve is expected to decrease significantly in the coming years. In order to quantify the effect of the production of natural gas on the Israeli economy, the quantities of gas that will be produced during were calculated, taking into account the forecast for domestic demand as determined by the Tzemach Committee. We estimated the savings in consumption of energy substitutes for gas (fuel oil and diesel oil) and quantified the effect of the change in consumption on the GDP. According to our estimate, the production is expected to contribute to growth approximately 0.9 percentage points in 2013 and 0.5 percentage points in Beginning in 2015, the effect of natural gas production on the GDP growth rate will be low (see Diagram 1). Diagram 1: Expected Contribution of Domestic Production of Natural Gas to the GDP, % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.90% 0.50% 0.14% 0.07% 0.12% 0.11% 0.02% ה תרומ ה ל תמ ג ה תרומ rateה לקצ growthב to annual הצמי ח ה ה שנ Contributionתי Contribution to GDP 2

3 Effect of the Fiscal Consolidation on Growth Changes in public expenditure could affect demand in the economy, thus also affecting the growth rate in the short term. The budget for provides for a significant decrease in the deficit (planned for 2014). To estimate the effect of the fiscal consolidation on growth we calculated the expected changes in the cyclically adjusted deficit (henceforth CAD) 1. We estimated the effect of the changes in CAD on the GDP assuming that the fiscal multiplier of the change in CAD is According to our estimate, as a result of the fiscal consolidation in 2014 growth in that year will decrease by 0.4 percentage points. Without consolidation, the high budget deficit could potentially reduce growth to a much greater extent. Section II: Assumptions Below are the main forecasting assumptions used and an explanation of the way in which they were formulated. Relevant International Indicators The assumptions in the model regarding the international environment are largely based on forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (see Annex A). The model assumes that the U.S. economy will grow during 2013 and 2014 at rates of 1.9% and 3.0% respectively (see Diagram 2). World trade will recover gradually, expanding in 2013 by 3.6% and in 2014 by 5.3%. The model also relates to changes in oil prices, which are expected to remain at the same level as in The Cyclically adjusted deficit takes into account the amount of the deficit and the position of the economy in the business cycle (boom or recession). 3

4 Diagram 2: Growth in the U.S. and the World Trade Volume (annual percentage change) 15% 10% 5% 0% 7.0% 2.9% 12.5% 6.0% 2.5% 3.6% 5.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% -5% -3.1% -10% -15% -10.6% Sources: IMF, BEA. U.S. GDP הסחרהעולמי ת הראג במ World trade Domestic factors The forecast model uses three key indicators that affect domestic demand: (a) share indexes (TA 100 and NASDAQ); (b) exchange rates, and (c) interest rates. We assume that the share indexes will rise at an annual rate of 6%, both in 2013 (starting from June) and in 2014; the exchange rates will remain around their current level; the Bank of Israel's interest rate will not change significantly in 2013 and will increase gradually during Labor Market In the labor market, we rely on the demographic forecasts of the Central Bureau of Statistics to forecast the workforce (population aged 15 and over). 4

5 Section III: Macroeconomic forecasts and Analysis of Results In the economy is expected to grow at a slower rate than in previous years. The start of natural gas production from the Tamar reserve will contribute significantly to overall growth figures. Thus, in 2013 the growth rate is expected to stand at 3.8% (including natural gas production), while in 2014 the economy will grow by 3.3%. These growth rates include the contribution of natural gas production, amounting to 0.9 percentage points in 2013 and 0.5 percentage points in The expansion of global demand is expected to boost exports, while investments in capital assets are expected to contract following the completion of large one-off projects. The fiscal consolidation is expected to affect growth mainly in Exports and Imports Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 5.7% in 2013 and by 4.7 % in 2014 (see Table 1). In 2012, exports of goods slowed due to slowdown in global trade, whereas exports of services (including the sale of startups) continued to grow rapidly. Exports of goods are expected to rebound in , in line with the expansion in global trade. In addition, exports of services are expected to expand in light of the improvement in the capital markets and the growth of the U.S. economy (especially in 2014). Imports of goods and services grew by 7.5% in The growth in imports is expected to slow, mainly due to decrease in energy imports following the start of the flow of natural gas from the Tamar reserve. Private Consumption Private consumption is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2013 and by 3.0% in 2014, following moderate growth in This growth reflects on the one hand the closing of the gap that developed in , during which private consumption lagged behind GDP growth, and on the other hand the anticipated effect of the fiscal consolidation, and mainly the increase in the consumption tax burden in

6 Public Consumption Public consumption is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2013 and by 2.3% in 2014, following higher growth in However, the growth rates in public consumption are relatively higher than in the past. The forecasted increase stems from the expansion of employment in the public services along with an increase in real wages. Investments The years saw rapid growth in investments. Investments in fixed assets in 2012 amounted to 19.2% of GDP a record level compared to previous years. The growth in investments was attributable to one-off projects: the construction of natural gas infrastructure and an upgrading of the Intel production facilities in Kiryat Gat. With the completion of these projects, the rate of growth of investments has slowed. The building sector also is showing some cooling. As a result we foresee limited growth in investments in fixed assets during 2013 and a recovery in the course of % Diagram 3: Investments in fixed assets (percent of GDP) 17.2% average for % 19.1% 18.3%18.2% 15% 10% 6

7 Inflation Prices are expected to rise in 2013 an average of 1.7% however, the rate of increase in prices during the year (year-end to year-end) will be higher. Inflation in 2014 will average 2.3%, affected by consumption tax hikes in the second half of 2013 (year-end effect). Employment and Wages Growth in employment is expected to slow during The number of employees grew at a rapid rate in the past three years, beyond the natural growth in the workforce. As a result, unemployment has declined significantly and there has been a substantial improvement in the participation rate. Nevertheless, the slowdown in economic growth, along with the fiscal consolidation, will impact negatively on the labor market and hinder further improvement in the unemployment and participation rates. It should be remembered that the natural gas sector, which will contribute significantly to growth in , is not labor-intensive. Wages rose at a slow rate in , below the growth in per-capita GDP. In , wage growth is expected to accelerate somewhat, mainly in the business sector. Wages in the public sector will be affected, on the one hand, by the wage agreements that were signed in recent years, and by restraining measures in the budget, on the other. Risks in the Forecast The ongoing crisis in the Eurozone, the uncertainty over the recovery of the U.S. economy and the slowdown in the emerging economies could substantially impact the forecast. There is also considerable uncertainty regarding domestic factors. The start of natural gas production from the Tamar reserve has put upward pressure on the shekel, which, if it persists, could affect the balance of trade and investments. A worsening in Israel's security and in the geopolitical situation also could impede the growth rate. 7

8 Table 1: Growth Rates of the Real GDP and Its Components, Real growth rates (percent) Average excl. natural gas contribution 2014 excl. natural gas contribution Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Gross domestic product Private consumption Public consumption Gross investment Investment in fixed assets Exports Exports of goods excl. diamonds Exports of services Imports Imports of goods and services excl. diamonds Business GDP Unemployment

9 Table 2: Consumer Price Index and the Labor Market, Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Consumer Price Index Change (annual-average over annual-average, percent) Change (December over December, percent) Wages Average wage in current prices (NIS) Annual change in current prices (percent) Annual change in fixed prices (percent) Israeli employed persons Number of employed persons (thousands) Annual change (percent) Unemployed persons Unemployed persons (thousands) Unemployed persons (percent) Participation rate (percent)

10 Table 3: Real GDP and Nominal GDP, Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Change in real GDP (percent) GDP in current prices (NIS billions) Rate of change in nominal GDP (percent) Date of preparation of the forecasts: May 7, 2013 Annex A Key Assumptions 2012 (Actual) US GDP Growth Model assumptions 1.2% 3.1% IMF (April 2013) 2.2% 1.2% 3.1% OECD (May 2013) 2.1% 2.8% World Trade Model assumptions 3.6% 5.3% IMF 2.5% 3.6% 5.3% OECD 3.5% 5.2% Oil prices (rate of change) 24.4 )-1.5%( 23.2 )-1.6%( 24.1 ) 1.1%( Tel Aviv %- 8.2% 6.1% NASDAQ 11.6% 11.4% 6.3% 11

11 Section IV: Forecast of State Revenues from Taxes 2, The budget forecast for was prepared in May 2013, when the actual collection figures for January-April were already known. The forecast does not include the effect of the Iscar transaction on tax revenues, since the details of the transaction, the amount at which it will be taxed and the timing of the tax were not known at the time. Forecast for 2013 State revenues from taxes in 2013 are projected to amount to NIS billion, broken down as follows: NIS billion in direct taxes, NIS billion in indirect taxes 3 and NIS 5.7 billion in fees (see Table 4). This is a real increase (net of the change in the consumer price index) of 5.7% compared to actual tax revenues in The forecast of revenues for 2013 assumes a real increase of 2.9% in the GDP (excluding natural gas) and an increase of 1.7% in GDP prices (for a complete list of the macroeconomic assumptions see Tables 1 to 3 above). The nominal growth and the increase in macroeconomic variables will add approximately NIS 8.6 billion to tax collection in A net tax increase is expected as well, estimated at NIS 8.7 billion, due to changes in legislation. This amount consists of an additional net tax of NIS 6.0 billion, which has already been implemented, and another proposed tax increase of NIS 2.7 billion 4, assuming that it will be adopted in its entirety by the Knesset. The forecast further assumes that advancing the payment of tax on dividends immediately prior to the tax increase at the end of 2011 raised tax collection by one-time revenues of NIS 2.0 billion in 2012 and will reduce tax collection in 2013 by NIS 1.5 billion. In addition, it was assumed that the taxing of trapped profits will yield one-time revenues of NIS 3.0 billion in The forecast also takes into account that as of 2 These are State revenues from taxes that are collected by the Israel Tax Authority as well as revenues from fees that are collected by the government ministries. The revenues here do not include VAT on defense imports and do not include revenues of other entities in the public sector that also collect taxes and mandatory payments: the National Insurance Institute and the Local Authorities. 3 In 2004 the Income Tax and Land Taxation Department and the Customs and VAT Department were merged as the Israel Tax Authority. In this section we refer to the two former tax departments as "direct taxes" and "indirect taxes," respectively. 4 In 2014, upon full maturity, the increases proposed by the government will add tax revenues of NIS 12.8 billion see Table 6. 11

12 April 2013 the Israel Electric Corp. has switched to natural gas instead of diesel oil, which will reduce excise revenues from diesel oil by NIS 0.4 billion in 2013 and by an additional NIS 0.4 billion in Net of legislative changes and net of tax on trapped profits, and discounting the effect of the advancement of dividend tax payments, tax revenues are expected to grow by 2.1% in real terms in 2013 compared to This is a nominal increase of 3.8% in 2013 compared to tax revenues in 2012, below the expected GDP nominal growth rate of 4.7% (excluding natural gas 5 ). Based on the performance figures until April, collection in the first third of 2013 increased at a nominal rate of 3.3% over the same period last year, thus the forecast for 2013 assumes a slightly accelerated increase of 4.3% in collection in May- December 2013 compared to the same period last year. The slow growth in the first third of the year is attributable mainly to high income tax refunds which are not expected to continue at the same rate during the rest of the year. Forecast for 2014 In 2014 State revenues from taxes are projected to amount to NIS billion, broken down as follows: NIS billion in direct taxes, NIS billion in indirect taxes and NIS 6.0 billion in fees (see Table 5). This is a real increase (net of the change in the consumer price index) of 7.4% compared to the forecast for The forecast of revenues for 2014 assumes a real increase of 2.8% in the GDP (excluding natural gas) and an increase of 2.3% in GDP prices, as well as a net tax increase, estimated at NIS 13.3 billion, due to changes in legislation. This amount consists of a net tax increase of NIS 0.5 billion, which has already been decided upon, and another proposed tax increase of NIS 12.8 billion, assuming that it will be adopted in its entirety by the Knesset. In addition, it was assumed that stronger enforcement (which is conditional in part on legislation that has still not been adopted by the Knesset) will yield an initial sum of NIS 2.1 billion in As against this, a 5 The flow of gas from the Tamar reserve is not expected to contribute significantly to tax revenues in the short term. 6 Upon full maturity, the increased enforcement measures will yield approximately NIS 3 billion starting from

13 sum of NIS 3.0 billion was deducted from the forecast base in respect of one-time taxation of trapped profits in Net of legislative changes and net of tax on trapped profits, and discounting the effect of the advancement of dividend tax payments, tax revenues are expected to grow by 4.4% in real terms in 2014 compared to This is a nominal increase of 6.8% in 2014 compared to tax revenues in 2013, above the expected GDP nominal growth rate of 5.2% (excluding natural gas), resulting from increased enforcement in 2014 and the partial closing of the gap between tax collection and GDP growth in 2013, arising from an unusual increase in tax refunds in the first third of the year. Table 4: Collection Forecast for 2013 (rounded NIS billions) Total Direct Indirect Fees 2012 Actual collection Base correction advancement of dividend collection Basis for forecast Implemented legislative changes Nominal growth and increase in macroeconomic variables Switch of Israel Electric Corp. from diesel oil to natural gas as of April Advancement of dividend tax collection Forecast before trapped profits, enforcement and proposed legislative changes Trapped profits Increased enforcement Forecast before proposed legislative changes Proposed legislative changes Budget forecast Table 5: Collection for 2014 (rounded NIS billions) Total Direct Indirect Fees 2013 Forecast before trapped profits, enforcement and proposed legislative changes Base adjustment Advancement of dividend tax collection Basis for forecast Implemented legislative changes Nominal growth and increase in macroeconomic variables Switch of Israel Electric Corp. from diesel oil to natural gas full year Advancement of dividend tax collection Forecast before enforcement and proposed legislative changes Increased enforcement Forecast before proposed legislative changes Proposed legislative changes Budget forecast

14 Legislative Changes In legislative changes will add approximately NIS 19.2 billion NIS 11.7 billion in 2013 and an additional NIS 7.5 billion in 2014 (see Table 6, item 1). Legislative changes include tax on trapped profits, which will add a one-time amount of NIS 3.0 billion in Excluding trapped profits, the additional collection in 2014 over 2012 will stand at the same NIS 19.2 billion, but the breakdown by years will be different NIS 8.7 billion in 2013 over 2012 and NIS 10.5 billion in 2014 over 2013 (Table 6, item 3). Out of the said total of NIS 19.2 billion, NIS 6.5 billion derive from legislative changes that were implemented until May 2013 (including a tax increase on tobacco at the beginning of May Table 6, item 4), while the remaining NIS 12.8 billion have still not been approved by the Knesset. Some of the changes, per the government's proposal, are due to take effect in June and July (VAT increase to 18% and increased purchase tax on alcoholic beverages) and in August (increased purchase tax on residential apartments), adding NIS 2.7 billion already in 2013 (see Table 6, item 5). Table 6: Effect of Legislative Changes on Tax Collection, (NIS millions, year over year and cumulative effect) 2014 Cumulative Total including trapped profits Direct 4,640 4,460 9,100 Indirect 7,030 3,100 10,130 Total 11,670 7,560 19, Trapped profits Direct 3,000-3, Total excl. trapped profits Direct 1,640 7,460 9,100 Indirect 7,030 3,100 10,130 Total 8,670 10,560 19, Implemented until May 2013 (excl. trapped profits) Direct 1, ,100 Indirect 4, ,380 Total 6, , To be implemented Direct 390 7,610 8,000 Indirect 2,280 2,470 4,750 Total 2,670 10,080 12,750 14

15 Tax Burden To summarize, the government tax burden, which is the percentage of total State revenues from tax in the GDP (including natural gas), which stood at 23.5% of GDP in 2012, is expected to increase to 23.9% of GDP in 2013 and to 24.8% of GDP in 2014, i.e. an increase of 1.3% of GDP over two years (see Diagram 4-A). The development of the tax burden was impacted by frequent changes in the tax laws. Thus, the downward trend in tax rates during was reversed starting in Furthermore, collection in will be affected by the advancement of tax payments on dividends at the end of Diagram 4-B shows the tax burden net of legislative changes and net of the advancement of dividend tax payments. This is an estimate of the tax burden as it would have been had the tax rates of 2014 been applied from 2001 until 2014, and it provides a picture of the tax system's performance. The tax burden in this definition follows the business cycle until 2011 it increases in periods of rapid growth and decreases in crisis periods. For example, the tax burden fell to a low in 2009, due to the global crisis, and recovered as expected in , although at a lower intensity than in the previous cycle. However, despite growth rates of around 3% since then, the tax burden declined again in , even below its level in Only in 2014 will the tax burden increase by 0.2% of GDP compared to

16 Diagram 4-A: Tax Burden in and Forecast for (State revenues from taxes as a percentage of GDP) Original data Diagram 4-B: Tax Burden Net of Legislative Changes and Timing Differences in and Forecast for (as a percentage of GDP) Original data 16

17 Section V: Forecast of Revenue from Other Sources The forecast of revenue from other sources is impacted mainly by economic developments in Israel and the world and by demographic changes. This forecast includes five revenue items: loans from the National Insurance Institute, military grants, VAT on defense imports, income from interest, and other revenues (comprised mainly of income from dividends of government corporations and royalties on natural resources). The forecasts were prepared using econometric models of NII revenues and expenses and the other revenues component, as well as simulations. This section presents the forecast of revenue from other sources discounting the effect of the policy measures proposed in the State budget for these years. In the wake of the global economic crisis, government revenue from other sources declined significantly. Thus, whereas the average revenue from other sources in stood at NIS 33.2 billion per year, in this average declined to only NIS 27.7 billion per year. Since 2008 there has been a significant decline in all components of revenue from other sources as a percentage of GDP. Diagram 5: Development of Other Revenue Components (as a percentage of GDP) Loans from the National Insurance Institute Grants from the U.S. Other revenues. VAT on defense imports Interest 17

18 The forecast of revenue from other sources for is based on macroeconomic forecasts, current developments in 2013 and demographic forecasts of the Central Bureau of Statistics. In we foresee a continuation of the uptrend in real wages that began in 2010, although at a more moderate rate compared to Thus, real wages are expected to grow in 2013 by 0.8% and in 2014 by 0.9%, compared to growth of 1.2% in Furthermore, we assume that the participation rate in will stand at 63.7%. As to the demographic forecasts, we assume that the population will grow at a rate of 1.4% in each of the years 2013 and 2014, slightly below the growth rate in previous years. As to the composition of the population, we assume that the rate of growth of the population aged 65 and over will stand respectively at 3.8% and 3.7% in 2013 and In light of the economic and demographic developments, revenue from other sources in 2013 (discounting policy measures to be approved in the budget framework) is expected to total NIS 28.9 billion, NIS 900 million more than in This increase stems mainly from an expected rise in loans from the National Insurance Institute. In 2014 we foresee a more substantial increase of NIS 2.0 billion in revenue from other sources, which will stand at NIS 30.9 billion. Table 5: Forecast of Non-Tax Revenues, (NIS billions) Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast VAT on defense imports Interest Loans from the National Insurance Institute Defense aid Other revenues Total other revenues

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015 BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Percent 70 The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 60 50 Before-Tax Income Federal Taxes Top 1 Percent 40 30 20 81st

More information

An Evaluation of the Possible

An Evaluation of the Possible An Evaluation of the Possible Macroeconomic Impact of the Income Tax Reduction in Malta Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:2, pp. 41-47 BOX 4: AN EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Report to the public of the discussions in the Bank of Israel prior to the setting of the interest rate for June 2006

Report to the public of the discussions in the Bank of Israel prior to the setting of the interest rate for June 2006 Bank of Israel Report to the public of the discussions in the Bank of Israel prior to the setting of the interest rate for June 2006 The broad-forum discussion took place in the Bank of Israel on 24 May

More information

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly

More information

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF Prepared by the Staff of the JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION March 1, 2005 JCX-4-05 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...

More information

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics

The Federal Reserve System. The Structure of the Fed. The Fed s Goals and Targets. Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Economics 202 Principles Of Macroeconomics Professor Yamin Ahmad The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Supplemental Notes to Monetary

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 JUNE 2015 ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 Prepared by: MESSAGE FROM THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Dear colleagues: Engineers

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE & REVENUE SCOTLAND 2013-14 MARCH 2015

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE & REVENUE SCOTLAND 2013-14 MARCH 2015 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE & REVENUE SCOTLAND 2013-14 MARCH 2015 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE & REVENUE SCOTLAND 2013-14 MARCH 2015 The Scottish Government, Edinburgh 2015 Crown copyright 2015 This publication is

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

Macroeconomics Instructor Miller Fiscal Policy Practice Problems

Macroeconomics Instructor Miller Fiscal Policy Practice Problems Macroeconomics Instructor Miller Fiscal Policy Practice Problems 1. Fiscal policy refers to changes in A) state and local taxes and purchases that are intended to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives.

More information

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures Provisional Translation Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures December 20th, 2004 Cabinet Approval 1. Main Economic Indicators for FY2004 and FY2005 Gross domestic

More information

STABILITY PROGRAMME 2014-2017

STABILITY PROGRAMME 2014-2017 STABILITY PROGRAMME 2014-2017 COUNCIL OF MINISTERS APRIL 30 2014 Stability Programme 2014-2017 The Council of Ministers has approved today the referral to Brussels of: The Stability Programme 2014-2017,

More information

STATE OF ARKANSAS Department of Finance and Administration

STATE OF ARKANSAS Department of Finance and Administration STATE OF ARKANSAS Department of Finance and Administration OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR 1509 West Seventh Street, Suite 401 Post Office Box 3278 Little Rock, Arkansas 72203-3278 Phone: (501) 682-2242 Fax: (501)

More information

BAHAMAS. 1. General trends

BAHAMAS. 1. General trends Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 1 BAHAMAS 1. General trends Growth in the Bahamian economy slowed in 2013 to 0.7%, down from 1.0% in 2012, dampened by a decline in stopover tourism,

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

On March 11, 2010, President Barack

On March 11, 2010, President Barack U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Introduction Exports Support American Jobs Updated measure will quantify progress as global economy recovers. On March 11, 21, President Barack

More information

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2013) XXX draft COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EN EN COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

More information

Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio

Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio BY ALEX BRILL May 2014 This report was sponsored by American Freedom Builders, Inc., a 501(c)4 organization. The author is solely responsible for

More information

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS Leadership makes the difference January 211 The Economic Impact of Corporate Tax Rate Reductions January 211 Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters Author:

More information

April 2015 Revenue Forecast. Methodology and Technical Documentation

April 2015 Revenue Forecast. Methodology and Technical Documentation STATE OF INDIANA STATE BUDGET AGENCY 212 State House Indianapolis, Indiana 46204-2796 317-232-5610 Michael R. Pence Governor Brian E. Bailey Director April 2015 Revenue Forecast Methodology and Technical

More information

Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal

Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal Cláudia Rodrigues Braz 1 1. Introduction From the end of the 1990s until 2005 (with a break in 2002), there was a gradual deterioration in the structural

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

The Shares of Indiana Taxes Paid by Businesses and Individuals: An Update for 2006

The Shares of Indiana Taxes Paid by Businesses and Individuals: An Update for 2006 The s of Indiana Taxes Paid by es and Individuals: An Update for 2006 Larry DeBoer Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University October 2007 Summary The s of Indiana Taxes Paid by es and Individuals:

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

ANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

ANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS The aim of this note is first to illustrate the impact of a fiscal adjustment aimed

More information

In recent years, fiscal policy in China has been prudent. Fiscal deficits

In recent years, fiscal policy in China has been prudent. Fiscal deficits 1 Fiscal Policy in China STEVEN DUNAWAY AND ANNALISA FEDELINO* In recent years, fiscal policy in China has been prudent. Fiscal deficits have been lower than budgeted, because revenue overperformances

More information

CHAPTER 7: AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY

CHAPTER 7: AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY CHAPTER 7: AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY Learning goals of this chapter: What forces bring persistent and rapid expansion of real GDP? What causes inflation? Why do we have business cycles? How

More information

Gross fixed capital formation: new figures old problems

Gross fixed capital formation: new figures old problems KfW Investment Barometer Germany: September Frankfurt, 7 th October Gross fixed capital formation: new figures old problems R&D expenditure now officially counts as investment. The investment rates of

More information

Convergence Programme Denmark 2015

Convergence Programme Denmark 2015 Convergence Programme Denmark 2015 March 2015 Index 1. Challenges, Goals and Strategy towards 2020... 3 1.1 The macroeconomic scenario towards 2020... 3 1.2 Goals and strategy towards 2020... 6 2. The

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

COMMUNICATION THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS

COMMUNICATION THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS 114th Congress, 1st Session House Document 114-51 THE 2015 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS COMMUNICATION

More information

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy

More information

LEVEL ECONOMICS. ECON2/Unit 2 The National Economy Mark scheme. June 2014. Version 1.0/Final

LEVEL ECONOMICS. ECON2/Unit 2 The National Economy Mark scheme. June 2014. Version 1.0/Final LEVEL ECONOMICS ECON2/Unit 2 The National Economy Mark scheme June 2014 Version 1.0/Final Mark schemes are prepared by the Lead Assessment Writer and considered, together with the relevant questions, by

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

FISCAL POLICY* Chapter. Key Concepts

FISCAL POLICY* Chapter. Key Concepts Chapter 15 FISCAL POLICY* Key Concepts The Federal Budget The federal budget is an annual statement of the government s expenditures and tax revenues. Using the federal budget to achieve macroeconomic

More information

TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW

TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW OVERVIEW 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW Themes.... 3 Stabilizing Public Services.... 3 Plan to Return to Balance.... 4 Jobs, Economic Growth and Diversification.... 5 Expense.... 5 Revenue... 6 Debt Management

More information

INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS MIDTERM- SAMPLE QUESTIONS

INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS MIDTERM- SAMPLE QUESTIONS INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS MIDTERM- SAMPLE QUESTIONS MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) In May 2009, Ford Motor Company's sales

More information

Section B Developments in the Domestic Government Bond Market and in Global Bond Markets in 2005

Section B Developments in the Domestic Government Bond Market and in Global Bond Markets in 2005 Section B Developments in the Domestic Government Bond Market and in Global Bond Markets in 2005 Section B Developments in the Domestic Government Bond Market and in Global Bond Markets in 2005 1. Macro-Economic

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies.

11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies. Framework of Analysis CHAPTER 12 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use

More information

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand Suppose that the economy is undergoing a recession because of a fall in aggregate demand. a. Using

More information

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions Executive Summary The (LTFP) report is an update from the preliminary report presented in January 2009 and reflects the Mayor s Proposed Budget for Fiscal Year 2010 and Fiscal Year 2011. Details of the

More information

Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics The U.S. Economy Employment outlook: 2002 12 The U.S. economy to 2012: signs of growth Based on the assumptions used in developing economic projections, real GDP is expected to grow during the next decade,

More information

MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.

MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. Suvey of Macroeconomics, MBA 641 Fall 2006, Final Exam Name MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) Modern macroeconomics emerged from

More information

Chapter 12. Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run

Chapter 12. Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run Chapter 12. Aggregate Expenditure and Output in the Short Run Instructor: JINKOOK LEE Department of Economics / Texas A&M University ECON 203 502 Principles of Macroeconomics Aggregate Expenditure (AE)

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Chapter 13. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Analysis

Chapter 13. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Analysis Chapter 13. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Analysis Instructor: JINKOOK LEE Department of Economics / Texas A&M University ECON 203 502 Principles of Macroeconomics In the short run, real GDP and

More information

Answers to Text Questions and Problems. Chapter 22. Answers to Review Questions

Answers to Text Questions and Problems. Chapter 22. Answers to Review Questions Answers to Text Questions and Problems Chapter 22 Answers to Review Questions 3. In general, producers of durable goods are affected most by recessions while producers of nondurables (like food) and services

More information

Table of Contents. A. Aggregate Jobs Effects...3. B. Jobs Effects of the Components of the Recovery Package...5. C. The Timing of Job Creation...

Table of Contents. A. Aggregate Jobs Effects...3. B. Jobs Effects of the Components of the Recovery Package...5. C. The Timing of Job Creation... 1 Table of Contents A. Aggregate Jobs Effects...3 B. Jobs Effects of the Components of the Recovery Package...5 C. The Timing of Job Creation...7 D. Breakdown by Industry...7 E. Effects on Different Demographic

More information

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today. Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025. Defense 2.7 3.3 2.2 2.

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025. Defense 2.7 3.3 2.2 2. CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 Percentage of GDP Major Health Care Programs Mandatory Spending Social Security Other

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1

Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1 Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1 Key Terms national income accounting: a system economists use to collect and organize macroeconomic statistics on production, income, investment,

More information

IV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (40)

IV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (40) 199Q1 1997Q1 1999Q1 21Q1 23Q1 2Q1 27Q1 29Q1 211Q1 213Q1 IV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (4) This section analyses the investment dynamics in the euro area since the global financial

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Author Name(s): Michael Hardie, Andrew Jowett, Tim Marshall & Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract The UK s trade performance

More information

Contents. List of Tables. The Capital Market, Insurance and Saving Division Annual Report 2004

Contents. List of Tables. The Capital Market, Insurance and Saving Division Annual Report 2004 Life Insurance The Capital Market, Insurance and Saving Division Contents Introduction... 4 1. Life insurance sector structure... 5 2. Operational characteristics... 7 Profit from life insurance business...

More information

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT V 1. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In 1997, the external current account deficit was 8.1 billion krónur, corresponding to 1. percent of GDP. It declined from 8.9 b.kr., or 1.8

More information

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Introduction Since the outbreak of the credit crunch crisis in 2008, and the subsequent European debt crisis, it has become clear that there are large macroeconomic imbalances

More information

Insurance Market Outlook

Insurance Market Outlook Munich Re Economic Research May 2014 Premium growth is again slowly gathering momentum After a rather restrained 2013 (according to partly preliminary data), we expect growth in global primary insurance

More information

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER 213-23 August 19, 213 The Price of Stock and Bond Risk in Recoveries BY SIMON KWAN Investor aversion to risk varies over the course of the economic cycle. In the current recovery,

More information

COMMUNICATION THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS

COMMUNICATION THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS THE 2016 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS COMMUNICATION FROM THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND

More information

ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. Executive Summary

ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. Executive Summary Republic of Serbia FISCAL COUNCIL ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Executive Summary The 2015 Budget Bill envisages a deficit at the central government level in the amount

More information

April/2014 ISSN 2367-5020. May/2014 BULGARIAN ECONOMY. June/2014. Monthly Report. July/2014. August/2014. September/2014. October/2014.

April/2014 ISSN 2367-5020. May/2014 BULGARIAN ECONOMY. June/2014. Monthly Report. July/2014. August/2014. September/2014. October/2014. April/214 ISSN 2367-52 May/214 BULGARIAN ECONOMY Monthly Report June/214 July/214 August/214 September/214 October/214 November/214 December/214 BULGARIAN ECONOMY Monthly Report April/214 This issue of

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, January 3, 16. January 3, 16 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 16 (English translation prepared by the Bank's

More information

FDIC. October 2, 2014. The Board of Directors MEMORANDUM TO: Diane Ellis Director FROM: Division of Insurance and Research

FDIC. October 2, 2014. The Board of Directors MEMORANDUM TO: Diane Ellis Director FROM: Division of Insurance and Research m FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 55017th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20429-9990 Division of Insurance and Research October 2, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: SUBJECT: The Board of Directors Diane

More information

Economic Review, April 2012

Economic Review, April 2012 Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest

More information

Table C-6 Insurance company market share insurance reserves in the

Table C-6 Insurance company market share insurance reserves in the Life Insurance The Capital Market, Insurance and Saving Division Contents Introduction... 4 1. Structure of the life insurance sector... 6 2. Operational characteristics... 8 Profit from life insurance

More information

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder,

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder, 2014 Investment Shareholders Update Dear Shareholder, As we look back on the first half of 2014, I m happy to report that Meridian s continued focus on serving and meeting the needs of our Members while

More information

Macroeconomics Machine-graded Assessment Items Module: Fiscal Policy

Macroeconomics Machine-graded Assessment Items Module: Fiscal Policy Macroeconomics Machine-graded Assessment Items Module: Fiscal Policy Machine-graded assessment question pools are provided for your reference and are organized by learning outcome. It is your responsibility

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Vladimir Tomsik Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Small Talks Symposium 9 October 2015 Investor Seminar 10 October 2015 IMF/WB Annual Meeting

More information

Quarterly Economics Briefing

Quarterly Economics Briefing Quarterly Economics Briefing March June 2015 2016 Review of Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic

More information

SAVING PLANS SAVING PLANS

SAVING PLANS SAVING PLANS SAVING PLANS 1 Table of contents 1. General... 3 2. Accumulation in savings plans...5 Table G-1: Accumulation in all savings plans in the years 1997-...5 Table G-2: Accumulation in all savings plans classified

More information

Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number

Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) If during the past decade the average rate of monetary growth

More information

2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest

2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest 2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest Content The main orientations of the 2000-2003 Stability Programme p. 3 1. Budgetary and socio-economic policy

More information

Background. Key points

Background. Key points Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority

More information

Economic Snapshot for February 2013

Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Christian E. Weller on the State of the Economy Christian E. Weller, associate professor, Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

S.Y.B.COM. (SEM-III) ECONOMICS

S.Y.B.COM. (SEM-III) ECONOMICS Fill in the Blanks. Module 1 S.Y.B.COM. (SEM-III) ECONOMICS 1. The continuous flow of money and goods and services between firms and households is called the Circular Flow. 2. Saving constitute a leakage

More information

Measuring GDP and Economic Growth

Measuring GDP and Economic Growth 20 Measuring GDP and Economic Growth After studying this chapter you will be able to Define GDP and explain why GDP equals aggregate expenditure and aggregate income Explain how Statistics Canada measures

More information

When Will the U.S. Job Market Recover?

When Will the U.S. Job Market Recover? March 2012 In this newsletter, we focus on the U.S. job market. The economic recovery post-2008 is often referred to as a "jobless recovery" given the persistently high unemployment rate. In this paper

More information

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017 Box 1 Projection assumptions Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 1. Introduction Projections

More information