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2 PREFACE The agro-processing industry is among the sectors identified by National Development Plan (NDP, 2011), Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP, 2015) and Agricultural Policy Action Plan (APAP, 2015) for its potential to spur growth and create employment because of its strong backward linkage with the primary agricultural, forestry and fisheries industry. DAFF established the Directorate: Agro-processing Support in 2011 to complement the interventions undertaken by several government departments, notably, the Department of Trade and Industry. One of the main functions of the Directorate is to provide timely and updated economic Agro-processing information to monitor the performance of the sector and provide an insight into the effects of economic policies and exogenous factors. To achieve this purpose, the Directorate publishes regular quarterly economic reviews review of the agro-processing industry. This publication Quarterly Economic Review of the Agro-processing Industry in South Africa: January to March 2015 evaluates the performance of the nine divisions within agroprocessing during the first quarter of These divisions, which are in line with the Standard Industrial Classification, are, tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel, leather and leather products, footwear, wood and wood products, paper and paper products, rubber products and furniture. The main economic indicators reviewed are the changes in producer price, production volume, value of sales, capacity utilisation by large enterprises, formal employment and trade balance. A sector specific outlook is also presented for selected divisions. Any comments and suggestions on the content of the publication are most welcome. Victor Mahlogedi Thindisa Director: Agro-processing Support Pretoria Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries did everything to ensure the accuracy of the information reported in this publication. The department will, however, not be liable for the results of action based on this publication. 1

3 CONTENTS PREFACE... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY STATE OF THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY THE AGRO-PROCESSING INDUSTRY TOBACCO TEXTILES WEARING APPAREL LEATHER AND LEATHER PRODUCTS FOOTWEAR WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS PAPER AND PAPER PRODUCTS... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.8 RUBBER PRODUCTS FURNITURE REFERENCES Compiled by Deborah Makola with inputs from: Vhutshilo Khorombi and Betty Seshibe Sefala Building Office Belvedere Street, Arcadia, South Africa All correspondence can be addressed to: Director: Agro-processing Support Private Bag X416, Pretoria 0001, South Africa Tel.: +27 (12) Fax: +27 (12) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This publication is also available on the internet at: 2

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Real growth in the South African economy moderated by 1,5% in the first quarter of 2015, following a growth of 4,1% recorded in the fourth quarter of Growth in real gross domestic production slowed to an annualised rate of 1,3% cent in the first quarter of This disappointing growth performance reflected a contraction in the real output of the secondary sector and slower growth in the primary and tertiary sectors. During the first quarter, the rubber products division showed a considerable increase of 7,7 % in production volume, followed by paper and paper products (5,8%), leather and leather products (3,8%), textiles (3,5%), wearing apparel (2,0%), food (0,9%) and wood and wood products (0,3%) divisions. However, footwear, furniture and beverages divisions registered a negative growth of 3,6%, 3,3% and 0,9%, respectively in the quarter under review. Due to the modest growth in production volume of most of the agro-processing products, the nominal value of sales of agro-processing moderated by 1,0% compared to the previous quarter of 1,5%. Therefore, the total value of sales grew modestly from R million in the preceding quarter to R million during the first quarter of The growth in value of sales was registered for wood and wood products (4,8%), leather and leather products (3,3%), wearing apparel (3,0%), rubber (0,5%), textiles (0,3%). However, footwear, paper and paper products, furniture, food and beverages divisions registered a negative growth of 9,4%, 3,8%, 3,1%,1,5% and 0,6%, respectively during the first quarter of During the first quarter of 2015, the following divisions registered a positive trade balance: tobacco (R211,3 million), beverages (R1 771 million), paper and paper products (R 532,8 million), and wood and wood products (R211, 3 million), while the following divisions registered a negative trade balance (furniture (R 5 499, 5 million), wearing apparel (R4 447, 2 million), rubber (R 3 394, 8 million), textiles (R2 936,,5 million), food (R2 384, 3 million), footwear (R 1 479,6 million) and leather and leather products (R 296, 5 million). As a result, the total agro-processing trade deficit widened from R12 763,5 million in the preceding quarter to R ,4 million during the first quarter of The agro-processing industry created formal jobs during the first quarter of 2015 due to the marginal production growth of most of its divisions. Divisions that created a significant number of jobs were as follows: beverages and tobacco (1 930), furniture (1 065), food products (945) textiles (846), wearing apparel (670), rubber (406), leather and leather products (175) divisions. However, jobs were shed in the wood and wood products (1 029), paper and paper products (554) and footwear (353) divisions. Hence, formal employment in agro-processing industry increased by in the previous quarter to during the first quarter of INTRODUCTION Global economic growth increased during the first quarter of 2015 prompted by the growth of advanced economies. The South African economy moderated as the tertiary sector maintained a positive growth. The mining sectors rebounded substantially as compared to the preceding quarter. However, the primary and the non-primary sector moderated during. This quarterly review assesses the economic performance of the agro-processing industry, given growth increase of both global and domestic economic activities during the first quarter of

5 The quarterly review is organised as follows: section two and three summarise the global economy and the state of the domestic economy, respectively, during the first quarter of Section four provides the impact of the global and domestic economy on the nine divisions of the agro-processing industry in brief. The review presented in this section assesses how the performance of the global and domestic economy during the quarter affected the producer price, production volume, sales, capacity utilisation, trade and employment of each division. In addition, an outlook for the first quarter of 2015, is presented for selected divisions. The outlook presents the expectation of domestic sales, export, investment and employment, among others, for the next quarter compared to their levels a year ago. 2. OVERVIEW OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Complex forces that affected global activity in 2014 are still shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, such as population aging and declining potential growth; global shocks, such as lower oil prices; and many country- or region-specific factors, such as crisis legacies and exchange rate swings triggered by actual and expected changes in monetary policies. Overall, global growth is projected to reach 3,5% and 3,8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, in line with the projections in the January 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. Growth is projected to be stronger in 2015 relative to 2014 in advanced economies, but weaker in emerging markets, reflecting more subdued prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil exporters as presented in Table 2.1. The world output data projects that the global economy will grow by 3,5% in 2016, but increase by 3,8% in Table 2.1: Overview of the world economic outlook projections (percentage change) Source: IMF (2015) Projections World Output 3,4 3,4 3,5 3,8 Advanced Economies 1,4 1,8 2,4 2,4 US 2,2 2,4 3,1 3,1 Euro area 0,5 0,9 1,5 1,6 Japan 1,6 0,1 1,0 1,2 Emerging market and developing economies 5,0 4,6 4,3 4,7 China 7,8 7,4 6,8 6,3 India 6,9 7,2 7,5 7,5 Russia 1,3 0,6 3,8 1,1 Brazil 2,7 0,1 1,0 1,0 Sub-Saharan Africa 5,2 5,0 4,5 5,1 South Africa 2,2 1,5 2,0 2,1 Global growth is projected to reach 3,5% and 3,8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, in line with the projections in the January 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. Growth is projected to be stronger in 2015 relative to 2014 in advanced economies, but weaker in emerging markets, reflecting more subdued prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil exporters. Medium-term prospects have become less optimistic for 4

6 advanced economies, and especially for emerging markets, in which activity has been slowing since Table 2.2: Seasonally adjusted estimated growth rates of world manufacturing output, Share in the world manufacturing value added (2010) Growth rate compared to the previous quarter (Quarter-to- Quarter) Growth rate compared to the same period of previous year (Year-on-Year) World 100,0 4,4 2,8 Industrialised economies 67,7 0,0 1,3 North America 22,4-0,3 3,7 Europe 24,7 0,4 1,2 East Asia 17,2-0,3-2,0 Developing and emerging industrial economies(by development group) 32,3 11,2 5,3 China 15,3 17,8 7,2 Emerging industrial economies 13,8 1,0 1,3 Other developing countries 2,7-4,8 1,4 Developing and emerging industrial economies(by region) 32,3 11,2 5,3 Africa 1,5 0,9 2,1 Asia and Pacific 21,7 14,0 6,6 Latin America 5,8-1,4-2,1 Others 3,3 2,5 3,7 Source: UNIDO (2015) and Quantec (2015) The world manufacturing output growth rate during the first quarter 2015 is presented in Table 2.2. Compared to the same period of the previous year (year-on-year), world manufacturing output moderated by 2,8% supported by 1,3% growth of industrialised economies, 5,3% of developing and emerging industrial economies, (by development group). The main contributor during the period of growth of the world manufacturing output was the 67,7% growth of industrialized economies, which is largely directed by the growth rates of North America, Europe and East Asia by 22,4%, 24,7% and 17,2%, respectively. The quarter-toquarter growth of world manufacturing output was marginal mainly as a result of weak performance of North America and East Asia. However, for Europe growth of manufacturing output was positive. Table 2.3: Seasonally adjusted estimated growth rates of output by the manufacturing sector, (in % compared with the same period of the previous year). Developing and emerging industrialised economies Industrialised economies South Africa World Food and beverages 4,8 0,4 7,4 2,4 Textiles 4,2-0,9 4,1 2,9 Wearing apparel, fur 5,5-5,2-1,5 2,7 Leather, leather products and 2,8-2,5-4,4 (leather) 1,4 5

7 footwear 7,8 (footwear) Wood products 3,3 1,1 3,7 1,9 Paper and paper products 2,6-1,3-4,6 0,1 Furniture and other manufacturing 7,0 2,1-0,3 4,6 Source: UNIDO (2015) and Quantec (2015) Table 2.3 shows the year-on-year seasonally adjusted growth rates of selected agroprocessing industries in the world for the period 2015:Q1. South Africa s food and beverages, textile, wood products, footwear, paper and paper and furniture and other manufacturing products division grew above world s average growth while, wearing apparel and leather and leather products and footwear fell below. The South African textile, wearing apparel, fur and paper and paper products, food and beverages, leather and leather products, footwear, furniture and other manufacturing and wood products divisions performed below developing and emerging industrialised economies, while food and beverages, textiles, wood products, and footwear performed above Industrialised economies. Table 2.4: Seasonally adjusted estimated growth rates of output by manufacturing sector, (in % compared to ) Developing and emerging industrialised economies Industrialised economies South Africa World Food and beverages 9,9 0,5 2,9 4,7 Textiles 15,1 1,8-0,4 11,7 Wearing apparel, fur 16,4 3,1-2, Leather, leather products and footwear 10,4 1,2-1,4 (leather) 3,2 (footwear) 7,8 Wood products 15,6 0,0 5,5 5,2 Paper and paper products Furniture and other manufacturing 9,0 0,5-5,9 3,4-2,3 3,4 1,9 0,4 Source: UNIDO (2015) and Quantec (2015) Table 2.4 shows quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted growth rates of agro-processing industries during the first quarter of Most of the South African agro-processing divisions performed below developing and emerging industrialised economies except furniture and other manufacturing. However, South Africa performed better on wood products and furniture and other manufacturing compared to the Industrialised economies and the world during 6

8 3. STATE OF THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY During, the growth of South African economy moderated by 1,3%, following a growth of 1,5% it registered. The growth is triggered by positive performance of the mining, primary sector; tertiary sector and non-primary sector (see Table 3.1). The primary sector grew by 3,3% in the first quarter of 2015, following by a remarkable growth 13,3% in the preceding quarter. Growth in the agricultural sector contracted sharply by 16,6% in the first quarter of 2015 following a growth of 7,5% in the preceding quarter. The mining sector, tertiary and non-primary sectors moderated by 10,2%, 1,5% and 0,8% in the first quarter of 2015, following a growth of 15,2%, 2,1% and 1,8% registered in the previous quarter. However, the manufacturing sector, contracted by 2,4% in 2015:Q1 following a growth of 9,5% recorded in the previous quarter. The disappointing performance of the manufacturing sector reflected sustained weak domestic demand, local infrastructure constraints and lower commodity prices Table 3.1: South African economic growth rate (percentage change at seasonally adjusted annualised rates Sector Q Q Q Q Year (2014) Q Primary sector -17,2-1,0 5,2 13,3 0,0 3,3 Agriculture 4,8 5,6 9,5 7,5 5,6-16,6 Mining -22,8-3,0 3,9 15,2-1,6 10,2 Secondary sector -3,8-2,5-0,4 7,2 0,4-1,4 Manufacturing -6,4-4,0-1,0 9,5 0,4-2,4 Tertiary sector 1,7 1,9 2,4 1,8 2,1 1,5 Non-primary sector 0,4 0,9 1,8 3,0 1,8 0,8 Total -1,6 0,5 2,1 4,1 1,5 1,3 Source: Reserve Bank (2015) The real production of the primary sector moderated at an annualised rate of 3,3% in the first quarter of 2015 following a significant growth of 13,3% in the preceding quarter. Agriculture production contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2015, partly neutralizing a further increase in the real value added by the mining sector. 7

9 % 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 % 26.0 Figure 3.1: Quarterly unemployment rate Source: Statistics SA (2015a) The unemployment rate for 2015:Q1 increased by 25,2% as compared to 24,3% recorded in the previous quarter. The number of employed people increased by in Q1: 2015 compared to Q4: Large quarterly gains were observed in the Finance ( ), Agriculture ( ) and Private households industries (69 000). Job losses were recorded in the Trade, Transport and Community and social services industries ( , and respectively). Compared to the same period last year, employment increased by Large annual increases were observed in the Agriculture ( ), Finance ( ) and Construction ( ) industries. The largest decrease in employment was observed in the Trade industry ( ) (see Figure 3.1). Figure 3.2: Total CPI and PPI inflation CPI PPI Source: Statistics SA (2014b, 2015c) 8

10 During the first quarter of 2015, the average producer and consumer price inflation moderated by 3,4% and 4,5%, respectively. Compared to the average producer and consumer price inflation, the producer price increased more for wood and wood products (20,2%) and furniture and other manufacturing products (10,3%) divisions. The consumer price of food products moderated mainly because of the moderation in prices of food products, fish and fish products, fruit and vegetables and meat and meat products by 6,9%, 3,8%, 5,2% and 12,7%, respectively. However, oils and fats contracted by 2,5% in the quarter under review. Table 3.2: Exchange rates of the rand (percentage change) Weighted average 1 31 March 2014 to 30 June 2014 Source: Reserve Bank (2015) Table 3.2 shows the exchange rates of the rand, during the first quarter of The trade weighted average exchange rate of the rand grew by 3,7% during the first quarter of 2015 following a rebound of 0,3% recorded in the previous quarter. Despite having depreciated against the US dollar, the rand appreciated against the euro, partly reflecting the differences in economic performance between the US and euro area. 4. THE AGRO-PROCESSING INDUSTRY 30 June 2014 to 30 Sep Sep 2014 to 31 Dec Dec 2014 to 27 Feb ,4-2,0 0,3 3,7 Euro 0,7 1,7 1,3 9,0 US dollar -0,2-5,6-2,9 0,6 Chinese Yuan -0,4-6,5-1,8 1,6 British pound -2,5-1,2 1,5 1,6 Japanese yen -1,7 1,9 6,2 0,3 The FAO (1997) defines agro-processing as a subset of manufacturing that processes raw materials and intermediate products derived from the agricultural sector. Therefore, the agro-processing industry basically transforms products originating from agriculture, forestry and fisheries. According to the Standard Industrial Classification, the agro-processing industry comprises the following 11 divisions: food products, beverages, tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel, leather and leather products, footwear, paper and paper products, wood and wood products, rubber and furniture. This section reviews the economic performance of nine divisions 2 during the first quarter of 2015 given the global and domestic economic situation during the period. 1 The Reserve Bank calculates the nominal effective exchange rate of the rand based on trade in and consumption of manufactured goods between South Africa and its most important trading partners. It is calculated against 15 currencies. The weights of the five major currencies are in brackets: Euro (0,34), US dollar (0,14), Chinese yuan (0,12), British pound (0,10), Japanese yen (0,10). 2 The Directorate: Agro-processing Support prepares a separate economic review for the food and beverage industry. However, in this report when the overall agro-processing industry s sales, export, import and employment is reported the eleven divisions including the food and beverages are incorporated. 9

11 2012: Q1 R million 4.1 TOBACCO During the first quarter of 2015, the quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year producer price index of tobacco products increased by 3,9% and 10,3%, respectively (see table 4.2). Table 4.1: Producer price index for tobacco products (base 2012 = 100) Indices % change between and 109,4 116,2 120,7 3,9 10,3 Source: Statistics SA (2015c) and 2015: Q Figure 4.1: Quarterly trade balance of tobacco Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) Figure 4.1 shows the quarterly trade balance for tobacco during the first quarter of The year-on-year export of tobacco increased by 11,3% following a 5,1% growth recorded in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year import of tobacco moderated by 4,6% from a growth of 27,6% recorded during. On the other hand, the quarter-to-quarter export of tobacco contracted by 14,2% as compared to the 14,7% increase registered in the fourth quarter of 2014, while the import of tobacco rebounded by 0,5% following a contraction of 5,6% registered in the previous quarter. As a result, the trade surplus of tobacco decreased from R644,0 million in the previous quarter to R53,2 million during. 10

12 Figure 4.8: Number of formal employment: beverage and tobacco products Source: Statistics SA (2015f) Figure 4.2 shows number of formal employment in the beverages and tobacco divisions in 2015:Q1. The year-on-year formal employment in the beverage and tobacco industry decelerated by 0,6% following a contraction of 3,3% registered in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter number of formal employment increased marginally by 4,9% following a growth of 4,1% registered during the fourth quarter of As a result, jobs were created in 2015:Q TEXTILES Table 4.2 presents the producer price index for textiles during the first quarter of The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter producer price of textiles for domestic output increased by 4,1% and 0,7%, respectively. Table 4.2: Producer price index for textiles (base 2012=100) Indices 2014:Q1and % change between and Textile 107,3 110,7 111,4 4,1 0,7 Source: Statistics SA (2014a) 11

13 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) 110 Figure 4.2: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: textiles Textiles Other textile products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for textiles contracted by 0,5% following a growth of 6,6% in the previous quarter, while the year-onyear physical adjusted volume of production of textiles moderated by 4,2% following a growth of 6,8% in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for other textile moderated by 0,7% following a growth of 1,0% in 2014:Q4, while other textile year-on-year physical volume of production marginally increased by 3,4% from a moderate growth of 2,3% recorded in the previous quarter. Table 4.3: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Textiles (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 69,1 30,9 1,3 0,8 0,1 24,1 4,6 73,7 26,3 1,6 0,4 0,0 20,8 3,5 72,0 28,0 1,4 1,3 0,0 22,4 3,9 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) Table 4.3 shows that the utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in the textiles division increased moderately year-on-year and decreased slightly quarter-to-quarter during the period under review. Insufficient demand was the main reason for the under- utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises of textiles, followed by other reason and a shortage of raw materials. 12

14 2012: Q1 R million 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.3: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): textiles Textiles Other textile products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) For the period under review, the year-on-year physically adjusted value of sales for textiles moderated by 6,8% following a growth of 15,1% in 2015:Q1, while the quarter-to-quarter contracted by 2,5% following a growth of 5,8% in the previous quarter. However, the quarterto-quarter value of sales for other textile products increased marginally by 0,4% following a growth of 0,2% in the previous quarter and the year-on-year moderated by 5,5% following a growth of 6,5% recorded in the preceding quarter Figure 4.4: Quarterly trade balance of textiles Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) 13

15 Figure 4.4 shows the quarterly trade balance of textiles during the first quarter of The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year export of textiles contracted by 16,8% and 4,2% following a growth of 8,8% and 5,9%, respectively in the previous quarter, The quarter-toquarter import trade balance of textile rebounded by 13,0% following a contraction of 5,9% recorded in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year of textile import substantially increased by 14,8% following a growth of 4,7% in the previous quarter. As a result, the trade deficit of the textile industry increased from R2 139,9 million in to R2 936,6 million in Figure 4.4: Number of formal employment: textiles Preparation and spinning of textile fibres; weaving of textiles Other textiles Source: Statistics SA (2015f) The quarter-to-quarter formal employment in other textiles division moderately increased by 3,6% following a growth of 0,4% recorded in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year formal employment in other textiles division rebounded by 2,4% following a contraction of 2,1% recorded in the previous quarter. The quarter-to-quarter formal employment in the preparation and spinning of textile fibres, weaving of textiles rebounded by 1,1% following a contraction of 2,0% in 2014:Q4. However, the year-on-year decelerated by 0,9% following a contraction of 4,4% in the previous quarter. As a result, 846 jobs were created 2015:Q1. Table 4.4: Net balance of the BER manufacturing survey: Textiles 2014:Q3 2015: Q2* Domestic sales volumes Export sales volumes Production volumes Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence

16 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) 2014:Q3 2015: Q2* Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business conditions in 12 months time *Expected Source: BER (2015) Table 4.4 presents the manufacturing survey of the textile division conducted by BER during the first quarter of The year-on-year outlook for the next quarter shows that all variables are expected to decrease. 4.3 WEARING APPAREL Table 4.5 shows that during the first quarter of 2015, the year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter producer price index for domestic wearing apparel output increased by 5,0% and 1,3%, respectively. Table 4.5: Producer price index for wearing apparel (base 2012 = 100) Domestic output Source: Statistics SA (2015c) Indices and % change between and Wearing apparel 111,6 115,7 117,2 5,0 1, Figure 4.6: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: wearing apparel Wearing apparel Knitted or crocheted fabrics Source: Statistics SA (2015d) 15

17 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.6 shows that the year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter physical volume of production for knitted and crocheted fabrics decelerated by 14,2% and 4,8%, respectively following a contraction of 14,3% and 1,9%, respectively registered in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter volume of production for wearing apparel contracted by 1,6% and 2,2%, in the quarter under review following a growth of 8,9% and 1,7%, respectively in 2014:Q4. Table 4.6: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Wearing apparel (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 80,0 20,0 0,4 0,9 0,3 15,4 2,2 85,5 19,5 0,6 0,9 0,3 15,6 2,2 79,5 20,5 0,6 0,9 0,3 15,6 2,2 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) Table 4.6 shows that the utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in the wearing apparel division decrease year-on-year and modestly increased quarter-to-quarter of the period under review. Insufficient demand remained the key reason behind low capacity utilisation, followed by other reason such as low productivity and shortage of skilled labour. Figure 4.7: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): wearing apparel Wearing apparel Knitted, crocheted articles Source: Statistics SA (2015d) 16

18 2012: Q1 R million As shown by figure 4.7, the year-on-year seasonally adjusted value of sales for wearing apparel moderated by 3,0% following a growth of 9,5% registered in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year seasonally adjusted value of sales for knitted and crocheted articles decelerated by 11,6% during 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 17,2% registered in the fourth quarter of However, the quarter-to-quarter value of sale of wearing apparel contracted by 4,7% following a growth of 4,5%, while the value of sale of knitted and crocheted articles rebounded by 2,4% following a contraction of 7,6% in the preceding quarter. The year-on-year total wearing apparel moderated by 1,3% in 2015:Q1 following a marginal increase of 10,9% in the previous quarter Figure 4.8: Quarterly trade balance of wearing apparel Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) Figure 4.8 shows the trade balance of wearing apparel division. The quarter-to-quarter export value of wearing apparel contracted by 22,0% following a growth 21,4% in the previous quarter. However the year-on-year export value increased modestly by 22,5% following a growth of 17,5% in the previous quarter. The quarter-to-quarter import of wearing apparel rebounded by 12,4% following a contraction of 1,0% registered in the previous quarter, however the year-on-year import of wearing apparel increased significantly by 11,6% following a growth of 6,0% in. As a result, the trade deficit of the wearing apparel industry increased from R3 508, 9 million in the preceding quarter to R4 447, 3 million during the quarter under review. 17

19 Figure 4.4: Number of formal employment: wearing apparel Knitted and crocheted fabrics and articles Wearing apparel, except fur;dressing and dying of fur, articles of fur Source: Statistics SA (2015f) During 2015:Q1 the year-on-year formal employment of knitted and crocheted fabric and articles industry decelerated by 2,0% following a contraction of 5,0% of the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter rebounded by 2,9% in 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 0, 1% in the previous quarter. The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter formal employment of wearing apparel industry rebounded by 1,1%and 1,3% in following a contraction of 2,0% and 1,4%, respectively registered in the preceding quarter. As a result, the total formal employment in the wearing apparel division created 670 jobs in 2015:Q1. Table 4.7: Net balance of the BER manufacturing survey: Clothing 2015: Q2* Domestic sales volumes Export sales volumes Production volumes Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business condition in 12 months time *Expected Source: BER (2015) 18

20 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) Table 4.7 presents the manufacturing survey of the clothing division conducted by BER during the first quarter of The year-on-year outlook shows that all other variables are positive except for general business conditions. 4.4 LEATHER AND LEATHER PRODUCTS Figure 4.10: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: leather and leather products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The year-on-year seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for leather and leather products decelerated by 4,5% during 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 6,6% registered in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter volume of production for leather and leather products contracted by 1,5% in 2015:Q1 following a growth of 3,8% registered in the fourth quarter of 2014 (see Figure 4.10). Table 4.8: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Leather and leather products (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Labour Skilled Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 70,2 29,7 5,3 0,2 0,5 22,1 1,3 74,6 25,4 4,0 0,2 0,8 19,3 1,1 70,3 29,7 4,5 0,2 0,6 22,5 1,9 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) The utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in the leather and leather products division increased marginally year-on-year but declined modestly quarter-to-quarter. The quarter-to-quarter decline in the utilisation of leather and leather products is reflected by the decrease in the physical volume of production. Among the reasons for underutilisation, 19

21 2012: Q1 R million 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million insufficient demand remained the main reason, followed by shortage raw materials then other reasons such as low productivity Figure 4.11: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): leather and leather products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted value of sales for leather and leather products moderated by 0,3% following a growth 4,3% in the previous quarter. However, the year-onyear value of sales of leather and leather products decelerated by 0,7% following a contraction of 1,9% in the previous quarter Figure 4.12: Quarterly trade balance of leather and leather products Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) 20

22 Figure 4.12 presents the quarterly trade balance of leather and leather products. The quarter-to-quarter export of leather decelerated by 15,5% following a contraction of 5,1% in the previous quarter while, the year-on-year export of leather and leather products moderated by 0,1% following a growth 16,2% in the previous quarter. However, the import of leather and leather products of contracted by 12,3% following a growth of 7,0% in the previous quarter. The year-on-year import trade balance of leather and leather products increased marginally by 14,3% following a growth of 12,4% registered in the previous quarter. As a result, the trade deficit increased from the R308, 4 million recorded in the previous quarter to R296, 4 million in the first quarter of Figure 4.13: Number of formal employment: leather and leather products Source: Statistics SA (2015f) The year-on-year formal employment in the leather and leather products industry rebounded by 4,5% from a contraction of 3,1% in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter formal employment in the leather and leather products division rebounded by 3,8% following a contraction of 2,6% in the previous quarter. As a result, 175 jobs were created in 2015:Q1 4.5 FOOTWEAR The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter producer price index of footwear for domestic output increased by 5,4% and 1,5%, respectively during the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 4.9). Table 4.9: Producer price index for footwear (base 2012 = 100) Indices and Domestic output % change between and 104,9 108,8 110,3 5,4 1,5 21

23 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) 120 Figure 4.14: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: footwear Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The year-on-year seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for footwear products increase significantly by 7,8% during following a growth of 2,3% registered in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter volume of production for footwear products rebounded by 3,2% in 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 3,8% in the previous quarter (see Figure 4.14). Table 4.10: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Footwear (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 87,0 13,0 2,4 1,9 0,0 8,8 0,0 86,1 13,9 0,2 1,9 0,0 9, ,8 13,2 1,9 1,0 0,0 9,8 0,6 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) The utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in the footwear division marginally decreased year-on-year and slightly increased quarter-to-quarter during 2015:Q1 (see Table 4.10). The quarter-to-quarter increase in capacity utilisation is consistent with the increase of production in the division during the period under review. Insufficient demand is the main reason behind low capacity utilisation followed by shortage of raw materials. 22

24 2012: Q1 R million 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.15: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): footwear Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The year-on-year seasonally adjusted value of sales of the footwear moderated 9,0% following a growth of 14,8% in the previous quarter. During the first quarter of 2015, the quarter-to-quarter value of sales decelerated by 3,0% following a contraction of 4,4% in the previous quarter (see Figure 4.15) Figure 4.16: Quarterly trade balance of footwear Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) 23

25 Figure 4.16 shows that quarter-to-quarter export of footwear contracted by 26,9% following a growth of 31,2% in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year export of footwear moderated by 21,9% following a growth of 22,7% in the previous quarter. However, the yearon-year import of footwear increased modestly by 18,2% during the first quarter of 2015 following a growth of 14,2% in the previous quarter, while the quarter-to-quarter import of footwear rebounded by 24,2% following a contraction of 18,5% recorded in the preceding quarter. As a result, the trade deficit increased from R1 029,2 million in 2014:Q4 to R1 479,6 million in the first quarter of Figure 4.17: Number of formal employment: footwear Source: Statistics SA (2015f) The quarter-to-quarter formal employment of the footwear industry decelerated by 3,8% following a contraction of 5,1% in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year formal employment of the footwear industry rebounded by 3,3% following a contraction of 3,3% in the previous quarter. As a result, 353 jobs were shed in 2015:Q1 (see Figure 4.17). 4.6 WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS The producer price for domestic output of wood and paper products increased year-onyear and quarter-to-quarter by 3,5% and 2,0%, respectively during the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 4.11). Table 4.11: Producer price index for wood and paper products (base 2012 = 100) Indices and Domestic output % change between and 106,4 107,9 109,9 3,5 2,0 Source: Statistics SA (2015c) 24

26 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) Figure 4.18: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: wood and wood products Sawmilling and planing of wood Products of wood Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) The quarter-to-quarter physical volume of production for sawmilling and planning of wood products increased modestly by 7,1% in 2015:Q1 following a growth of 4,9% in previous quarter. However, the year-on- year physical volume of production increased significantly by 12,6% following a growth 2,6% in the previous year. The volume of production for wood products rebounded by 3,5% in 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 1,7% in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year physical volume of production moderated by 3,7% from a growth of 5,8% in the previous quarter. Table 4.12: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Wood and wood products (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 81,5 18,5 1,7 1,3 0,0 10,4 5,0 83,9 16,1 2,1 1,9 0,1 8,6 3,4 82,8 17, ,8 0,1 9,5 3,9 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) Based on Table 4.12, the year-on-year, utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises of wood and wood products division marginally increased, while the, the quarter-to-quarter utilisation marginally decreased. Insufficient demand and other reasons such as downtime because of maintenance, lower productivity and seasonal factors were the main reasons for underutilisation of production capacity in the division. 25

27 2012: Q1 R million 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.19: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): wood and wood products Sawmilling and planing of wood Products of wood Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The value of sales in the sawmilling and planning of wood increased moderately by 7,5% in 2015:Q1 following a growth 5,3% in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year value of sales increased substantially by 11,7% following a growth of 2,4% in the previous year. The quarter-to quarter value of sales in the products of wood rebounded by 3,2% following a contraction of 0,7% in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year value of sales moderated by 6,0 % following a growth of 7,7% in the previous quarter Figure 4.20: Quarterly trade balance of wood and wood products Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) 26

28 The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year export of wood and wood products moderated by 2,1% and 14,7% in, following a 6,3% and 24,0%, respectively registered in the previous year. However, the quarter-to-quarter import of wood and wood products rebounded by 16,0 % in the quarter under review following a contraction of 5,0% in, while the year-on-year import increased marginally by 10,9% following a growth of 9,6% registered in the preceding quarter. As a result, the trade balance decreased from R358,4 million in the previous quarter to R211,3 million during 2015:Q1 (see Figure 4.24) Figure 4.21: Number of formal employment: wood and wood products Sawmilling and planing of wood Products of wood Source: Statistics SA (2015f) The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter employment of sawmilling and planing of wood decelerated by 4,9% and 5,9% in, following a contraction of 3,1% and 0,9%, respectively in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter products of wood contracted by 0,8% from an unchanged growth in 2014:Q1, while the year-on-year formal employment of wood products grew by 0,4% following an unchanged growth in the previous quarter. As a result, 219 jobs were shed in 2015:Q1. 27

29 Table 4.13: Net balance of the BER manufacturing survey: Wood and wood products 2015: Q2* Domestic sales volumes Export sales volumes Production volumes Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business condition in 12 months time *Expected Source: BER (2015) Table 4.13 presents the manufacturing survey of the wood and wood products division by BER during 2015:Q1. The year-on-year outlook for 2015:Q2 is positive for most variables except for general business conditions and employment. 4.7 PAPER AND PRINTED PRODUCTS The producer price for domestic output of paper and printed products increased year-onyear and quarter-to-quarter by 8,8% and 3,4%, respectively during the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 4.14). Table 4.14: Producer price index for paper and paper products (base 2012 = 100) Indices % change between and and Domestic output Paper and paper 111,0 116,4 119,8 8,8 3,4 products Source: Statistics SA (2015c) 28

30 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 2014:Q4 Index (2010 = 100) 110 Figure 4.22: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: paper and paper products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year physical volume of production for paper and paper product contracted by 5,9% and 4,6%, during the first quarter of 2015 following a growth of 5,5% and 8,0%, respectively as recorded in the previous quarter. Table 4.15: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Paper and paper products (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 85,5 14,5 1,1 1,3 0,2 5,9 6,0 88,0 12,0 1,1 1,3 0,1 4,6 4,9 84,4 15,6 0,0 1,6 0,3 6,7 6,5 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) Table 4.12, shows that the utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in the paper and paper products division decreased both year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter. The yearon-year decrease in the utilisation of production capacity is reflected by the decrease in volume of production. Insufficient demand and other reasons (such as downtime because of maintenance, lower productivity and seasonal factors) remained the main reasons for underutilisation of production capacity. 29

31 2012: Q1 R million 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.23: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): paper and paper products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter value of sales in the paper and paper products contracted by 1,4% in 2015:Q1 following a growth of 5,4% in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year value of sales moderated by 6,1 % following a growth of 13,2% in Figure 4.24: Quarterly trade balance of paper and paper products Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year export of paper and paper products contracted by 3,6% and 4,1%, following a growth of 2,8% and 13,8%, respectively in preceding quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter import of paper and paper products decelerated by 7,4 % following a contraction of 3,0% in, while the year-on-year import moderated by 3,7% following a growth of 10,0% registered in the preceding quarter. As a result, the trade 30

32 surplus increased from R468,2 million in the previous quarter to R612,7 million during 2015:Q1 (see Figure 4.24) Figure 4.25: Number of formal employment: paper and paper products Source: Statistics SA (2015f) Formal employment in the paper and paper products division contracted by 1,4% quarteron-quarter during the first quarter of 2015 following a growth of 0,3% in the preceding quarter. However, the year-on-year formal employment in the paper and paper products division decelerated marginally by 6,0% in 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 5,9% in 2014:Q4 (see Figure 4.25). As a result, 554 jobs were shed in 2015:Q1. Table 4.16: Net balance of the BER manufacturing survey: Paper and paper products Domestic sales volumes 2015: Q2* Export sales volumes Production volumes Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business conditions in 12 months time *Expected Source: BER (2015)

33 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) Table 4.16 shows the manufacturing survey of paper and paper products division by BER during the first quarter of The year-on-year outlook for the second quarter of 2015 is negative for most variables except for fixed investment. 4.8 RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS The quarter-on-quarter producer price for domestic output of rubber and plastic products increased by 0,3%. However, the year-on-year contracted by 0,4% during the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 4.17). Table 4.17: Producer price index for rubber products (base 2012 = 100) Indices % change between and and Domestic output Rubber products 117,8 117,1 117,4-0,4 0,3 Source: Statistics SA (2015c) 130 Figure 4.26: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: rubber products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter physical volume of production for rubber products contracted by 9,2% following a growth of 7,3% in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year physical volume of production decelerated by 1,9% following a contraction of 0,9% in the previous quarter. 32

34 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Table 4.18: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Rubber products (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Shortage of Insufficient Other Raw Labour demand materials Skilled Semi and unskilled 85,0 15,0 0,9 1,7 0,0 12,2 0,2 85,6 14,4 0,3 0,9 0,0 13,3 0,0 78,2 21,8 0,4 0,9 0,0 20,5 0,0 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) As seen on Table 4.18, the year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises in rubber products decreased. The quarter-to-quarter slowdown in the utilisation of production capacity is consistent with the decrease in volume of production. Insufficient demand and skilled labour continued to be the main reasons for underutilisation of production capacity Figure 4.27: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): rubber products Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter value of sales in the rubber products division contracted by 9,3% and 10,2% respectively, in following a growth of 3,5% and 6,5%, respectively in the previous quarter. (see figure 4:27). 33

35 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.28: Quarterly trade balance of rubber products Export Import Source: Statistics SA (2015) The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year of export of rubber products contracted by 17,5% and 0,3% in following a growth of 0,1% and 4,3%, respectively in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter value of import rebounded by 2,3% in 2015:Q1 following a contraction of 5,9% in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year import increased by 13,2 % following a growth of 10,3% in the preceding quarter (see Figure 4.28). Owing to the relative increase of import to export, the trade deficit, increased from R2 870,8 million in the previous quarter to R3 394,8 million in the first quarter of (See figure 4.28) Figure 4.29: Number of formal employment: rubber products Source: Statistics SA (2015f) 34

36 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 Index (2010 = 100) Formal employment in rubber products division rebounded by 3,7% quarter-to-quarter in 2015:Q1 following an unchanged growth of 0,0% in 2014:Q4. However, the year-on-year formal employment rebounded by 2,8% following a contraction of 3,4% in the previous quarter (see Figure 4:29). As a result, 406 jobs were created in 2015:Q FURNITURE The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter producer price for domestic output of furniture and other manufacturing increased by 11,0% and 2,9%, respectively during the first quarter of 2015 (see Table 4.19). Table 4.19: Producer price index for furniture and other manufacturing (Base 2012=100) Indices % change between and Domestic output and 2015: Q4 106,5 114,6 117,5 11,0 2,9 130 Figure 4.30: Seasonally adjusted physical volume of production: furniture Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The quarter-to-quarter physical volume of production for furniture products rebounded by 1,9% in following a contraction of 3,6% in the previous quarter. However, the yearon-year physical volume of production decelerated by 0,3% following a contraction of 3,3% in the previous year. 35

37 2010: Q1 2010: Q2 2010: Q3 2010: Q4 2011: Q1 2011: Q2 2011: Q3 2011: Q4 2012: Q1 R million Table 4.20: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Furniture (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Raw materials Shortage of Skilled Labour Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 79,7 20,3 1,2 1,5 0,0 17,3 0,3 90,5 9,5 0,9 1,5 0,0 7,1 0,1 76,8 23,2 0,8 1,5 0,0 20,9 0,0 Source: Statistics SA (2015e) Utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises of furniture decreased marginally yearon-year. However, it decreased modestly as compared to the previous quarter. (see Table 4.20). The quarter-to-quarter slowdown in the utilisation of production capacity is not consistent with the volume of production. Insufficient demand and skilled labour remained the main reasons for underutilisation of production capacity Figure 4.31: Seasonally adjusted value of sales (current prices): furniture Source: Statistics SA (2015d) The value of sales in the furniture division modestly increased by 3,3% in following a growth of 1,0% in the previous quarter. Similarly, the year-on-year value of sales increased modestly by 10,6% following a growth of 6,0% in the previous year. 36

38 2012: Q1 R million Figure 4.32: Quarterly trade balance of furniture Export Import Source: Quantec EasyData (2015) The quarter-to-quarter growth of export of furniture contracted by 24,1% following a 7,8% growth in the previous quarter, while the year-on-year export of furniture decelerated by 19,4 % following a contraction of 10,4 % in the previous quarter. However, the quarter-to-quarter value of import decelerated by 4,0 % following a contraction of 14,5% in the preceding quarter, while the year-on-year import contracted by 8,8% following a growth of 2,1% in 2015:Q1 (see Figure 4.32). As a result, the trade deficit increased from R5 475,7 million in the previous quarter to R5 499,5 million in the period under review Figure 4.33: Number of formal employment: furniture Source: Statistics SA (2015f) 37

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