Cisco Visual Networking Index Trends and Insights into an Evolving Service Provider Landscape. Doug Webster January 21, 2015

Transcription

1 Cisco Visual Networking Index Trends and Insights into an Evolving Service Provider Landscape Doug Webster January 21, 2015

2 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco s IP Thought Leadership Cisco VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Data Connections Adoption Usage Bitrates and Speeds VNI Global Mobile Speed Data Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

3 VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth Exabytes per Month IP Traffic in 2013 Projected in 2010 Actual Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

4 Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to % CAGR 21% CAGR Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

5 Establishing the Zettabyte Era By 2018, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes per year 1.6 zettabytes is equal to: 13X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes) 1day / 24 hours of ultra-hd video per person of the world population What is a zettabyte? One trillion gigabytes Approximately (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

6 Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users Growth Catalysts More Devices 21 Billion Connections Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6-Fold Speed Increase More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

7 Global Internet Users Growth By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users > ½ World s Population North America 317 Million by 2018 CAGR 2% Western Europe 346 Million by 2018 CAGR 1.4% Central/Eastern Europe 339 Million by 2018 CAGR 8.6% Latin America 371 Million by 2018 CAGR 9.6% Middle East & Africa 431 Million by 2018 CAGR 15.1% Asia Pacific 2.1 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11.2% Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Confidential 7 7

8 Global Device Growth By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections North America 3.4 Billion by 2018 CAGR 13% Western Europe 2.8 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Central/Eastern Europe 1.6 Billion by 2018 CAGR 10% Latin America 1.7 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Middle East & Africa 2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Asia Pacific 9.2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Confidential 8 8

9 By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 50% of all device/ connections will be mobile connected. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast,

10 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD, and UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business and Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Deliver Networks (CDNs) and Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile and Fixed Data Caps 10

11 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD, and UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business and Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Deliver Networks (CDNs) and Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile and Fixed Data Caps 11

12 Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K 250 UHD 18 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps SD 2 Mbps Connected 4K TV Sets (M)

13 Growing Definition of Global Internet Video Ultra-HD Internet Video Will Account for 8% of Traffic in 2018 Petabytes per Month 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.05%, 8%) High Def (HD) Video (24%, 46%) Standard Def (SD) Video (76%, 46%) % CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

14 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD, and UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business and Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Deliver Networks (CDNs) and Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile and Fixed Data Caps 14

15 Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M per Capita 26% CAGR M2M Connections (M) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,304 2,912 3,722 4,734 5,922 7,268 1, Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

16 Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections Billions of Devices % CAGR M2M (18.6%,35.2%) Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%) Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%) TV (10.0%,12.8%) PCs (12.2%,7.0%) Tablets (2.3%,5.0%) Other Portable Devices (5.2%, 4.1%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

17 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD, and UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business and Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Deliver Networks (CDNs) and Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile and Fixed Data Caps 17

18 Busy Hour versus Average Hour Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average 1,400 1,200 1,000 Average Hour Busy Hour 26% CAGR Traffic (Gbps) % CAGR Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

19 Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018 Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic Global APAC LATAM NA WE CEE MEA Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

20 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD, and UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business and Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Deliver Networks (CDNs) and Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile and Fixed Data Caps 20

21 By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 16% (2B) in % CAGR Number of Devices (B) B 0.7B IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices B 4.7B Source: Cisco VNI Global IPv6 Forecast,

22 Closing Thoughts 22

23 The Network Effect of the Beautiful Game Just the IP Streaming of the World Cup is estimated to be 4.3 Exabytes That s nearly three times the amount of the entire monthly broadband traffic for Brazil. 23

24 Cisco VNI Web Sites IP Traffic Forecast: Service Adoption Forecast: Press Release White Papers / FAQs Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask-vnisa@cisco.com Source: Cisco VNI Global IPv6 Forecast,

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