Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption

Transcription

1 Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption Global Forecast Update Cisco Knowledge Network (CKN) Presented by Cisco SP Thought Leadership Team June 2014

2 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned. Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast Service Adoption Forecast FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI Cisco Pub lic 2

3 Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users More Devices 21 Billion Connections Growth Catalysts Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6- Fold Speed Increase More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic Cisco Pub lic 3

4 Establishing the Zettabyte Era By 2018, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes per year What is a zettabyte? One trillion gigabytes Approximately (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) 1.6 zettabytes is equal to: 13X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes) 1 day / 24 hours of ultra- HD video per person of the world population Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 4

5 By 2018, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes per year, up from 18 exabytes in 2013 (nearly 11- fold growth). 190X More than all IP traffic generated in Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram) 4 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco and/or Cis c o aits nd affiliates. / or its a ffiliate All rights s. All reserved. rig hts s e rve d. Cis c o Pub lic 5

6 VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth Projected in 2010 Actual Exabytes per Month IP Traffic in 2013 Internet Traffic in 2013 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 6

7 Global IP Traffic Growth / Top- Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to % CAGR Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 7

8 Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate at 38% CAGR APAC will Generate 35% of all IP Traffic by 2018 Exabytes per Month Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (23% CAGR) Middle East and Africa (MEA) (38% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (18% CAGR) North America (NA) (20% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR) 6.8% 7.8% 4.1% 14.6% 30.8% 21% CAGR % Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 8

9 Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top- Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11- Fold from % CAGR Exabytes per Month EB 2.6 EB 4.4 EB 7.0 EB 10.8 EB 15.9 EB Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 9

10 Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (70%) from APAC will Generate 42% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 Exabytes per Month Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC) Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, % CAGR % 9.4% 10.3% 12.0% 18.6% 42.4% Cisco Pub lic 10

11 Global Internet Users Growth By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users North America 317 Million by 2018 CAGR 2% Western Europe 346 Million by 2018 CAGR 1.4% Central/Eastern Europe 339 Million by 2018 CAGR 8.6% Latin America 371 Million by 2018 CAGR 9.6% Middle East & Africa 431 Million by 2018 CAGR 15.1% Asia Pacific 2.1 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11.2% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Cisco Confidential Pub lic 11

12 Global Device Growth By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections North America 3.4 Billion by 2018 CAGR 13% Western Europe 2.8 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Central/Eastern Europe 1.6 Billion by 2018 CAGR 10% Latin America 1.7 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Middle East & Africa 2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9% Asia Pacific 9.2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Cisco Confidential Pub lic 12

13 By 2018, over half of the world s population (52%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 50% of all device/connections will be mobile- connected. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 13

14 Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps) North America 2.5- fold Growth Mbps Western Europe 2.5- fold Growth Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.6- fold Growth Mbps Latin America 2.6- fold Growth 6 16 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.6- fold Growth 6 15 Mbps Asia Pacific 2.7- fold Growth Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Cisco Confidential Pub lic 14

15 Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic North America 40.5 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 84% Western Europe 19.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79% Central/Eastern Europe 10.2 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 70% Latin America 8.9 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 81% Middle East & Africa 5.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79% Asia Pacific 47.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 77% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or a / its affiliates. a s. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Public 15

16 Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage Average Traffic per User In 2013 By 2018 Future 15 GB per month 30 GB per month 75 GB per month Average Traffic per Household In 2013 By 2018 Future 36 GB per month 73 GB per month 150 GB per month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 16

17 Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Asia- Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa ,049 1,384 8, , , , , ,983 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 17

18 Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage MB Traffic/month 2 Hours of Video 2 Hours of Audio 5 Video Calls 2 App Downloads 3.0 GB Traffic/month 20 Hours of Video 10 Hours of Audio 10 Video Calls 20 App Downloads Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 18

19 Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2013 to 2018 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region s Mobile Data Traffic Growth Region # of Mobile Users # of Mobile Devices / M2M # of Users 2GB / Month Avg. Mobile Speed Mobile Data Traffic Asia Pacific 2.7B users +4% (CAGR) 5.1B connects +8% (CAGR) 835M 2GB users +76% (CAGR) 2 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 6.7 EBs/Mo +67% (CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe 385M users +1% (CAGR) 874M connects +6% (CAGR) 128M 2GB users +108% (CAGR) 2.3 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.6 EBs/Mo +68% (CAGR) Latin America 467M users +2% (CAGR) 947M connects +6% (CAGR) 137M 2GB users +101% (CAGR) 1.0 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 1.2 EBs/Mo +66% (CAGR) Middle East & Africa 733M users +5% (CAGR) 1.6B connects +8% (CAGR) 207M 2GB users +107% (CAGR) 0.9 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.5 EBs/Mo +70% (CAGR) North America 301M users +2% (CAGR) 736M connects +12% (CAGR) 156M 2GB users +21% (CAGR) 4.5 Mbps +21% (CAGR) 3.0 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Western Europe 364M users +1% (CAGR) 938M connects +10% (CAGR) 148M 2GB users +35% (CAGR) 3.0 Mbps +14% (CAGR) 1.9 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Note: The numbers above pertain to 2018, and the CAGR s are for period. Cisco Pub lic 19

20 VNI Forecast Update, Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends 1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use 6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends) 2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE 7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption 3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi- Fi 8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth 4 Wi- Fi Dominates Access Technology 9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption 5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology 10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps Cisco Pub lic 20

21 Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections Billions of Devices % CAGR M2M (18.6%,35.2%) Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%) Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%) TV (10.0%,12.8%) PCs (12.2%,7.0%) Tablets (2.3%,5.0%) Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 21

22 Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K 250 UHD 18 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps SD 2 Mbps Connected 4K TV Sets (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 22

23 Average Global Traffic per Device (2013) M2M Module = 78 MB Smartphone = 1.0 GB Tablet = 4.0 GB Internet Set- Top or Dongle = 8.0 GB Laptop/PC = 22.7 GB Ultra High Definition TV * Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, = 22.9 GB* Cisco Pub lic 23

24 Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non- PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic Exabytes per Month % CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%) M2M (0.4%,2.8%) Tablets (2.2%,14.0%) Smartphones (3.5%,16.3%) TV (26.5%,23.6%) PCs (67.2%,42.8%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cis c o VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 24

25 Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non- PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic Exabytes per Month % CAGR Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.2%) Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%) M2M (0.5%,3.7%) TV (4.7%,6.2%) Tablets (3.1%,18.0%) Smartphones (5.0%,21.0%) PCs (86.4%,50.5%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 25

26 Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Will Gain 14 Points to Reach 39% Share Billions of Devices Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%) Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%) Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%) 8% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 26

27 Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Billions of De vic e s or Connections % 29% 3% 4G 3G 2G 48% 44% 8% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, % 26% 15% Cisco Pub lic 27

28 Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 54% Share Billions of Devices % CAGR Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections 68% 61% 54% 46% 74% 79% 54% 46% 32% 39% 21% 26% * Smart devices are those having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 28

29 Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia- Pacific Middle East & Africa % 54% 65% 93% 45% 83% 15% 61% 14% 55% 17% 47% 10% 36% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 29

30 Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 96% Share of Traffic Exabytes per Month Non-smart Traffic Smart Traffic 12% 88% 10% 90% 9% 91% 93% 95% 96% % CAGR * Smart traffic is generated by devices with advanced computing capabilities and a 3G connection (or higher). 7% 5% 4% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 30

31 Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia- Pacific Middle East & Africa % 96% 98% 100% 95% 100% 75% 95% 81% 96% 85% 95% 76% 90% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 31

33 Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita M2M Connections (M) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR) Latin America (23% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR) North America (27% CAGR) Western Europe (24.6% CAGR) 4.7 B 2.3 B 2.9 B 3.7 B 5.9 B 7.3 B 26% CAGR 1, Source: Machina Research, Cis c o VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 33

34 Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 21- fold from 2013 to % CAGR Petabytes per Month 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR) Latin America (87.5% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR) North America (91.1% CAGR) Western Europe (85.5% CAGR) 1.2 EB 2.1 EB 3.7 EB 1, EB 0.3 EB 0.6 EB Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 34

35 Globally, M2M connections will grow more than 3- fold from 2013 (2.3B) to 2018 (7.3B) Globally, M2M traffic will account for 3% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.4% in 2013 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 35

36 Internet of Everything Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018 Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018 Smart Cars (M) Smart Cars Traffic (PB/Month) Source: Machina Research,, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 36

37 Global Mobile M2M Connection Growth Global Mobile M2M Connections will Grow 6- Fold from ; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G Billions of M2M Connections B 28% 71% 3G 2G 4G 0.5 B 34% 64% 0.8 B 1.1 B 41% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, B 50% 9% 2.0 B * In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014,1.5% connections, in 2015, 3% connections and in 2016,5.6% connections are 4G. 41% 56% 47% 48% 51% 35% 14% 43% CAGR Cisco Pub lic 37

38 Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8- Fold from ; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity 52% CAGR M M M M M M Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Millions of Connected Wearables 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% % with Emb e d d e d Ce llular Conne c tivity Cisco Pub lic 38

39 Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Maintain the Largest Share Millions of Connected Wearables * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable device share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Western Europe (25%, 26%) North America (42%, 34%) Middle East & Africa (3%, 4%) Latin America (5%, 5%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%, 6%) Asia Pacific (21%, 25%) 22 M 36 M 58 M 88 M 127 M 52% CAGR M Cisco Pub lic 39

40 Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36- Fold from % CAGR Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Monthly Traffic (PB) 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% % of Smartphone Traffic Cisco Pub lic 40

41 Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America Will Maintain the Largest Share 70 Western Europe (17%, 21%) 105% CAGR North America (65%, 50%) 61 Middle East & Africa (1%, 2%) 50 Latin America (2%, 3%) 40 Central & Eastern Europe (3%, 5%) 30 Asia Pacific (12%, 19%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable devices traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Monthly Traffic (PB) Cisco Pub lic 41

43 Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps) North America 2.5- fold Growth Mbps Western Europe 2.5- fold Growth Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.6- fold Growth Mbps Latin America 2.6- fold Growth 6 16 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.6- fold Growth 6 15 Mbps Asia Pacific 2.7- fold Growth Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or a / its affiliates. a s. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Public 43

44 Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries Video Minutes per Viewer Source: Cisco VNI, Indonesia India Argentina Italy Brazil Australia Mexico China Chile Russia Canada U.K. New Zealand Spain U.S. France Germany Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps) Sweden Japan Video Minutes per Viewer Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer) Cisco Pub lic 44

45 Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences 10 Mbps 50 Mbps 100 Mbps 55% of all broadband connections by 2018 Online Video (HD movie download) 22 minutes (UHD movie download) 2 hours 22% of all broadband connections by 2018 Online Video (HD movie download) 4 minutes (UHD movie download) 23 minutes 3% of all broadband connections by 2018 Online Video (HD movie download) 2 minutes (UHD movie download) 12 minutes Cisco Pub lic 45

46 Global Wi- Fi Speed Acceleration 2.2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (10 Mbps) to 2018 (21 Mbps) North America 2- fold Growth Mbps Western Europe 2- fold Growth Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 2.4- fold Growth 9 21 Mbps Latin America 2- fold Growth 5 10 Mbps Middle East & Africa 2.1- fold Growth Mbps Asia Pacific 2.1- fold Growth Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or a / its affiliates. a s. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Public 46

47 Surge of Hotspots Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018 Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014 Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 47

48 Future of Wi- Fi as Wired Complement Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web ac 3.6 Gbps Max Applications Enabled High Resolution Video Wired Complement b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video Number of ac Home CPE to Increase 13- fold from 2013 to 2018 Cisco Pub lic 48

49 Global Mobile Speed Growth Nearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps) North America 2.6- fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps Western Europe 1.9- fold Growth 1.6 to 3.0 Mbps Central/Eastern Europe 1.7- fold Growth 1.4 to 2.3 Mbps Latin America 1.5- fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps Middle East & Africa 1.7- fold Growth 0.5 to 0.9 Mbps Asia Pacific 1.5- fold Growth 1.3 to 2.0 Mbps Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco c o and/or a / its affiliates. a s. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Public 49

51 Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi- Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018 Petabytes per Month 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR) 21% CAGR % 39% 13% 36% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 51

52 Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi- Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by % CAGR ,000 Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Petabytes per Month 100,000 80,000 60,000 Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR) 15% 24% 17% 40,000 20,000 44% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 52

54 Metro vs. Long- Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 54

55 Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic Non-CDN Internet Traffic (63.8%, 44.7%) CDN Internet Traffic (36.2%, 55.3%) Exabytes per Month Source: Cis c o VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 55

57 Global IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 79% of Global IP Traffic by 2018 Petabytes per Month 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 Gaming (0.05%, 0.09%) File Sharing (13%, 6%) Web/Data (21%, 15%) IP VOD (23%, 19%) Internet Video (42%, 60%) 21% CAGR ,000 20, * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 57

58 Global Internet Video Traffic Growth Internet Video Will Account for 75% of Global Internet Traffic by 2018 Petabytes per Month 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 Gaming (0.07%, 0.11%) File Sharing (19%, 8%) Web/Data (24%, 17%) Internet Video (57%, 75%) 23% CAGR ,000 20, * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 58

59 Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra- HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018 Petabytes per Month 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 11%) High Def (HD) Video (36%, 52%) Standard Def (SD) Video (64%, 37%) 25% CAGR ,000 20, * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 59

60 Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP VoD Growth Ultra- HD IP VoD Will Account for 22% of Global IP VoD Traffic by 2018 Petabytes per Month 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.2%, 22%) High Def (HD) Video (57%, 71%) Standard Def (SD) Video (43%, 7%) 16% CAGR ,000 5, * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 60

61 Long Tail Video Top 10* Sites Account for 41% of Videos Viewed (and >39% of Video Minutes) 300 Video Minutes (B) Top Video Sites Cisco Pub lic 61

62 Long Tail Video (Traffic) Top 10* Sites Account for 60% of Video Traffic Exabytes per month (EB) Top Video Sites Cisco Pub lic 62

63 Top Global Internet Video Sites by Traffic Volume (PC- Based Viewing) Site PB per Month Site PB per Month 1 Google / YouTube 1,977 2 FC Youku & Tudou Dwango LETV.COM IQIYI.COM Sohu.com Inc NETFLIX.COM TENCENT Inc Facebook Xunlei Networking VEVO Vimeo Mail.ru Group Dailymotion Ustream ALLMYVIDEOS.NET BIGCINEMA.TV NOWVIDEO.SX Yahoo Sites 56 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 63

64 Global Internet Video Consumption Short Form Most Popular Video Minute (B) % Short Form Video Site 39% Long Form Video Site 4% Extra-Long Form Video Site 1% Micro-Video Site Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 64

65 Growing Length of Global Internet Video Long Form Video Will Account for 72% of Internet Traffic by 2018 Petabytes per Month * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Long Form Video (64%, 72%) Short Form and Micro Video (34%, 28%) 30% CAGR Cisco Pub lic 65

67 Global Residential Market, by 2018: 63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013). Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013). Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 67

68 Global Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption CAGR % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Time Delayed TV Video on Demand VoIP Online Gaming Online Music Social Networking Online Video Digital TV 0.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of g lob al TV house hold s will b e 1.8 b illion. Cisco Pub lic 68

69 Residential Services Implications / Opportunities Residential Market Dynamics More / new connections Preference for mobility Need to monetize increased network demand Residential Opportunities for Service Providers Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections Partner and form new ecosystems with OTTPs Develop Wi- Fi / mobility plans Bolster service portfolio with value- added IoE / M2M applications Cisco Pub lic 69

70 Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018: There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013). Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 70

71 Global Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR % 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Consumer LBS Mobile Mobile Gaming Mobile Music MMS Mobile Video Mobile Banking & Commerce Mobile Social Networking 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 2018 % Adoption Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion. Cisco Pub lic 71

72 Consumer Mobile Implications / Opportunities Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics More / new devices and connections Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile Demand for Wi- Fi offload and faster speeds Need to monetize increased network demand Consumer Mobile Opportunities for Service Providers Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services Shared data plans Blend service offers with online services / content Developing / monetizing Wi- Fi offers Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands) Cisco Pub lic 72

73 Global Business Market, by 2018: There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users (62% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 3.9 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013). Average business internet user will have 1.8 devices and connections There will be 1.4 billion bus ine s s mobile de vic e and c onne c tions (up from million in ). Average business mobile user will have 2.4 mobile devices and connections Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 73

74 Global Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption CAGR % 50% Desktop Video Conferencing 40% 30% Room Based Video Business LBS Conferencing Mobile Audio 20% Conferencing 10% IP Telephony Web Conferencing SMS 0% w/o Video -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% -10% 2018 % Adoption Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million. Cisco Pub lic 74

75 Business Services Implications / Opportunities Business Market Dynamics More / new devices and connections growing demand for BYOD Low penetration of mobile devices Growing demand for service transition from fixed to mobile Premium security Business Segment Opportunities for Service Providers Enhance productivity, customer support Cloud services and storage network, computing, infrastructure Offer vertical specific IoE / M2M services Blending and bundling with other services Cisco Pub lic 75

77 Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour Traffic (Gbps) 1,200 1, Average Hour Busy Hour 28% CAGR % CAGR Source: Cis c o VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 77

78 Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic Global APAC LATAM NA WE CEE MEA Source: Cis c o VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 78

80 By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6- capable, up from 16% (2B) in % CAGR Number of Devices (B) B 0.7B IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices B 4.7B Source: Cis c o VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 80

81 IPv6- Capable Fixed/Mobile Devices Forecast, North America 2 Billion by Million in % CAGR Western Europe 2 Billion by Million in % CAGR Central/Eastern Europe 794 Million by Million in % CAGR Latin America 821 Million by Million in % CAGR Middle East & Africa 702 Million by Million in % CAGR Asia Pacific 4 Billion by Million in % CAGR Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, Cisco c o and/or a / its affiliates. a s. All rights reserved. s e rve d. Cisco Public 81

83 Top Mobile User Profiles: Top 1 Percent Generates10 Percent in Sept % Percentage of Top 1 percent to total MB/mo 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 52% 24% 16% Top 1 % Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, % Cisco Pub lic 83

84 Remaining 99% Growing Faster than Top 1% MB per User per Month 100% Top 1% 90% Remaining 99% 80% 70% 84% 90% 60% 50% 52% 40% 48% 30% 20% 10% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 84

85 Top 10% Consumes Nearly as Much as the Remaining 90% Top Tie r %Us age 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Top 1% Oct-12 Remaining 99% Top 5% Jun-13 Remaining 95% Top 10% Remaining 90% Top 20% Remaining 80% Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 85

86 All Top Tiers Increase in Usage from 2011 to 2013 Megabytes per Month 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Top 20% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1% 0 Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 86

87 3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month Percentage of Users 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3% 0% Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than 5 GB 2 GB 200 MB 20 MB Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 24% 75% 93% 97% Greater than 1 MB Cisco Pub lic 87

88 ios Usage Surpasses Android 1,400 Megabytes per Month 1,200 1, MB/mo 1,325 MB/mo 1,255 MB/mo 652 MB/mo 960 MB/mo 1,296 MB/mo Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 0 Android ios Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 88

89 Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption % Number of Mobile Data Plans 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 739 MB 425 MB 1,261 MB 922 MB Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, ,890 MB 1,081 MB Unlimited Tiered Cisco Pub lic 89

90 Number of Shared Plans Increase No Impact on Usage % Number of Mobile Data Plans 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 792 MB 648 MB Oct MB 946 MB Sep-13 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Regular Plans Shared Plans Cisco Pub lic 90

91 Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits Country % Broadband HH > 250 GB % Mobile Users > 2 GB Global 2.1% 3.8% North America 4.7% 21.6% Western Europe 1.6% 9.5% Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3% Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9% Latin America 2.4% 1.0% Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 91

92 Cisco VNI Web Sites IP Traffic Forecast: Service Adoption Forecast: Press Release White Papers / FAQs Cisco VNI Web- based Tools / Free Apps IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: traffic- inquiries@cisco.com Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: ask- vnisa@cisco.com Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, Cisco Pub lic 92

93 Thank you.