IPv6 Market Drivers and IPv6

Transcription

1 IPv6 Market Drivers and IPv6 Transition Strategies for Fixed Wireline Operators Nav Chander Research Analyst, Business Network Services Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda IPv6: Why Now? Transition Options Comparing Economics of Transitions IDC Jul-12 2

3 Exploding Traffic Growth Stressing Networks MORE DEVICES MORE APPLICATIONS MORE CONTENT MORE ON-DEMAND ACCESS IDC Jul-12 3

4 Today s Traffic Flows: Many to Many Private Cloud/ Datacenter HQ Regional Office Branch Office, Mobile Worker Internet Cloud Services Management Provisioning Security Consumer Cloud Applications Google Amazon Cloud Applications CRM ERP Home Complexity will require IPv6 Benefits: Simplicity, Security and Connectivity IDC Jul-12 4

5 Fixed Broadband: Digital Home Vision IDC Jul-12 5

6 Streaming Video and Audio Driving Nearly Half of BB Traffic, and Growing Wireline Mobile Source: IDC Worldwide Internet Broadband, Bandwidth, 2012 IDC Jul-12

7 IPv6: Reasons To Plan 1. We ARE running out of addresses 2. IPv6 is not backward compatible with IPv4 3. Government mandates (initiatives) 4. Two protocol world is a reality 5. Customer centric opportunities IDC Jul-12 7

8 IPv6: Why Now? On February 3, 2011, the last available IPv4 addresses where allocated by the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) IDC Jul-12 8

9 Smart Mobile Devices: Diversity,Explosion Unit Shipment (Millions) Connected Devices Smart Devices Grow 3x Media Tablet Smartphones Desktops Portables Source: IDC, 2012 IDC Jul-12 9

10 Non Traditional Devices Video-surveillance Support for sensor networks Real time network analytics Gaming, appliances, Cars Worldwide Non Traditional Devices, 2009 and 2012 (M) Source: IDC, 2010 IDC Jul-12 10

11 IPv6 transition market drivers IPv6 content availability (% of content available over IPv6) 25% 44% 63% 82% 95% Service Provider IPv6 device readiness (% of devices with IPv6 capability) 50% 60% 80% 90% 98% IDC Jul-12

12 Key Considerations for Operators When do you run out of IPv4 addresses? When is most of the content available on IPv6 network? Service Segment Mobile Enterprise Wireline Now Devices are already being actively deployed with IPv6 addresses Growing rapidly Varies NAT is already being used at peering points where run out has occurred Slower ramp Due to enterprise specific applications and longer development cycles Now A combination of NAT and IPv6 enabled CPE are being deployed Growing rapidly What is the device/cpe refresh frequency? Short refresh cycle Longer refresh cycle Longer refresh cycle IDC Jul-12

13 Essential Guidance The reality of IPv6 is finally here The broadband wireline network is evolving from a fixed, datacentric model, to an application-driven, multi-media and flexible bandwidth model, driven by more video content than ever before IPv4 and IPv6 address implementations will coexist within global service providers' networks and customers Impact of increased real-time application content, traffic growth and high growth rate of smart connected devices accentuates the issue of IPv4 address depletion CAPEX Economics for Fixed broadband wireline network transition to IPv6 are compelling IDC Jul-12 13

14 Poll Questions Q1. At what stage is your business prepared for adopting IPv6? a. No plans to date b. Planning started in 2012 or earlier c. Implementing IPv6 in backbone Q2. What transition technology are you planning to use or have you used to deploy IPv6? a. 6rd b. Dual-Stack c. DS-Lite d. other IDC Jul-12 14

15 Gina Nienaber Market Manager, GMCC SP Route and Switch 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15

16 IPv6 Transition Mechanism Hidden Costs? Hidden Opportunity? 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16

17 WHEN? 91 of Top500 WEB sites globally, +~2500 smaller sites 28.6% 68.3% 3.2% IPv6 Testing Source : Cisco (measured IPv6 enabled sites * traffic/pages), collected and compiled by Hugo Kaczmarek - Cisco 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17

18 HOW? IPv4 Internet IPv6 Internet IPv4 Core Dual Stack Core P+PE (L3) Dual Stack Dual Stack Core Dual Stack Core NAT IPv4 Access Network 6rd BR v6 over v4 6rd or L2TP LNS IPv4 Access Core + Access (L2) (ex: DOCSIS 3.0) AFTR v4 over v6 NAT MAP or DS-Lite MAP (4rd BR) 6 4 IPv6 Access Network NAT Subscriber Network CE Subscriber Network CE Subscriber Network CE Subscriber Network CE Subscriber Network IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT STATEFUL IPv6 Rapid Deployment INCREMENTAL! STATELESS Native Dual Stack IPv6-Only Access Network INCREMENTAL! STATELESS IPv6-Only Subscriber 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18

19 Market inputs Segment Size Transition Scenario(s) % of IPv6 Content IPv6 penetration rate per Household Peak Bandwidth/Sub Avg Ports per Households Architecture inputs Number of CGN Sites Type of CGN and technology used Modular vs. fixed solution (AR9K, CRS, ASR1K) Chassis Size and selection I/O line card selection CGN: Dimensioning rules Nbr of XLATE Max Bandwidth Max CGN Traffic per Chassis Equipment inputs CGN equipment Configuration Capacity Unitary cost Power consumption HW maintenance service License cost for transition options 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19

20 April 2012 How much? Key Assumptions IPv4 Core IPv4 Internet Engines Required: Session Per Device Throughput Per Device NAT NAT NAT Subs x devices per sub x sessions per device Subscriber IPv4 public addresses Exhausted All traffic is translated Core 4 devices per subscriber 500 Sessions per device Annual subscriber growth rate of 10% 5 million residential subscribers IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. IPv4 Core IPv4 Access NAT Subscriber DS Core 6rd BR v6 over v4 6rd IPv4 Access IPv6 Internet CE Engines only required for content that is not reachable via IPv6 IPv4 Access Subscriber Network Subs x devices per sub x bandwidth per device Maximize IPv6 traffic (25% yr 1-95% yr 5) Minimize IPv4 traffic CGNAT Bi-pass 4 IPv6/6rd-capable devices per subscriber 500 Sessions per device Annual subscriber growth rate of 10% 5 million residential subscribers No additional cost for 6rd on CPE IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT + 6rd Cisco Confidential 20

21 Hidden Costs? Cost Type NAT444 State per Session Opex NAT rd Security Opex Lawful Intercept Opex Applications Opex 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 21

22 How much? CGN Only 6rd + CGN CGN444 CAPEX/OPEX Growing Cost driven by subscriber growth and application complexity (sessions per user) CGN44 Cost Capped - IPv6 Content 6rd Cost does not increase much as a function subscriber growth or application complexity 69% 1 capex savings by turning on 6rd + CGNAT (6rd solution eases CGNAT requirements and paves path to Dual Stack) 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 22

23 Automatically schedule its own restock. Elderly patients can wear a small wireless device that monitors their heart condition. Your network enabled car will automatically turn on the air-conditioning in your house Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 23

24 Nav Chander, Research Manager Enterprise Telecom & Infrastructure IPv6 for Fixed SPs Validated with T1 SP Available NOW!! IPv6 for Mobile SPs Coming Soon! Sept Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 24

25 Incremental transition steps available Stateless is more cost effective Use Stateful mechanisms only if you MUST New Business opportunities on horizon Build a path to IPv6 Services Now! OPEX IoT Stateful Mechanisms! 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 25

26 Fixed Broadband IPv6: Key Business Recommendations Recommendations Conserve Private IPv4 Address space Plan for IPv6 address deployment Direct connectivity to IPv6 content enables new revenue opportunities 6rd and NAT444 provides an easier and less costly CAPEX investment for an IPv4 to IPv6 network transition Support for new peer-to-peer and on-demand IPv6 application providers expands customer reach and reduces subscriber churn IDC Jul-12 26

27 Questions Please contact us at: Nav Chander, Research Manager Enterprise Telecom & Infrastructure IDC Jul-12 27

28 Thank You