Cisco Global Cloud Index November 2014

Transcription

1 Cisco Global Cloud Index November 2014

2 Global Cloud Index Forecast Methodology Projecting Data Center and Cloud Traffic Growth The methodology begins with the installed base of workloads categorized by workload type and implementation and then applies the volume of bytes per workload per month to obtain the traffic for current and future years. Installed Base of Workloads Bytes of Traffic per Workload per Month Percent Traffic Within Data Center and Data Center to Data Center = Traffic Analyst Data Measured Data Measured Data Detailed methodology description and specific analyst sources included in complete GCI report 2

3 Cisco VNI and Global Cloud Index Data Distinctions and Overlap of 2017 Traffic Forecasts Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Global Cloud Cloud Index Index (GCI) (GCI) D A B C D A B + = 1.6 ZBs Non-Data Center Traffic NOT included in GCI Data Center-to-User Traffic This is the overlap between VNI and GCI 6.4 ZBs B C 0.7 ZBs B 1.5 ZBs A 0.1 ZBs + + = 8.6 ZBs B C D Data Center-to-User Traffic (17%) This is the overlap between VNI and GCI Data Center-to-Data Center Traffic (8.5%) Traffic that flows from data center to data center Within Data Center (74.5%) Traffic that remains within the data center 3

4 GCI Forecast Update, Top 5 Data Center/ Cloud Trends Growth of Global Data Center Relevance and Traffic Continued Global Data Center / Cloud Virtualization Cloud Service Delivery Models (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) Internet of Everything (IoE) Data center by traffic by destination Data center and cloud IP traffic growth Business vs. consumer cloud traffic Traditional DC vs. Cloud DC virtualization Public vs. private cloud workloads* Service delivery workload analysis for Total Cloud* Service delivery workload analysis for Private Cloud* Service delivery workload analysis for Public Cloud* Potential impact of Big Data on global data centers* Consumer cloud storage analysis* Multi-device ownership & IPv6 adoption foster cloud growth 5 Global Cloud Readiness Internet ubiquity Network speeds and latency analysis * New content for GCI Forecast Update 4

5 Global Data Center Traffic Growth Data Center Traffic Nearly Triples from 2013 to 2018 Zettabytes per Year Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, % CAGR

6 Global Data Center Traffic by Region Asia Pacific to Have Highest Traffic Volume by 2018, Middle East & Africa to Experience Highest Traffic Growth North America 2013: 1.1 Zettabytes 2018: 2.7 Zettabytes CAGR 20% Western Europe 2013: 516 Exabytes 2018: 1.3 Zettabytes CAGR 20% Central & Eastern Europe 2013: 190 Exabytes 2018: 640 Exabytes CAGR 28% Latin America 2013: 194 Exabytes 2018: 553 Exabytes CAGR 23% Middle East & Africa 2013: 68 Exabytes 2018: 366 Exabytes CAGR 40% Asia Pacific 2013: 1.1 Zettabytes 2018: 3.1 Zettabytes CAGR 24% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

7 Global Data Center Traffic by Destination, 2013 Most Data Center Events/Content Stays Within the Data Center Data Center-to- Data Center 6.6% Data Centerto-User 16.7% Within Data Center 76.7% A B Within Data Center (76.7%) Storage, production and development data, authentication Data Center-to- Data Center (6.6%) Replication, CDN, intercloud links C Data Center-to-User (16.7%) Web, , internal VoD, WebEx, et al. 7

8 Global Data Center Traffic by Destination, 2018 Most Data Center Events/Content Stays Within the Data Center Data Center-to- Data Center 8.5% Data Centerto-User 17.0% Within Data Center 74.5% A B Within Data Center (74.5%) Storage, production and development data, authentication Data Center-to- Data Center (8.5%) Replication, CDN, intercloud links C Data Center-to-User (17%) Web, , internal VoD, WebEx, et al. 8

9 Cloud Definition by Measured Service On Demand/ Self Service Rapid Elasticity Cloud Broad Network Access Resource Pooling 9

10 Workload Definition A server workload is defined as a virtual or physical set of computer resources assigned to run a specific application or provide computing services for one or many users. No Virtualization Scenario Virtualization Scenario 1 Workload = 1 Physical Server 1 Workload = Virtual Machine (VM) VM1 VM2 Physical Server VM3 Definition developed and applied for the purpose of the GCI Forecast 10

11 Cloud Workloads Surpass Traditional Workloads Over Three-Quarters (78%) of all workloads will be in Cloud by Traditional Data Center (-2% CAGR) Cloud Data Center (24% CAGR) 22% 14% CAGR Installed Workload in Millions % 78% 50 0 Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, %

12 Global Cloud Workload Distribution Asia Pacific Workloads Grow More Than 6-Fold from 2013 to 2018 North America Will Maintain Largest Share of Cloud Workloads by 2018 North America 2013: 30.5 Million 2018: 69.3 Million CAGR 18% Western Europe 2013: 16.0 Million 2018: 35.8 Million CAGR 18% Central & Eastern Europe 2013: 1.0 Million 2018: 3.8 Million CAGR 31% Latin America 2013: 1.2 Million 2018: 5.2 Million CAGR 34% Middle East & Africa 2013: 0.8 Million 2018: 4 Million CAGR 39% Asia Pacific 2013: 7.5 Million 2018: 47.5 Million CAGR 45% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

13 Global Traditional Workload Distribution Decline to Single-Digit Growth for Traditional Workloads in Most Regions North America 2013: 25.6 Million 2018:18.7 Million CAGR -6% Western Europe 2013: 13.2 Million 2018: 9.2 Million CAGR -7% Central & Eastern Europe 2013: 1.3 Million 2018: 1.3 Million CAGR 0.1% Latin America 2013: 1.4 Million 2018: 1.7 Million CAGR 3% Middle East & Africa 2013: 1.0 Million 2018: 1.2 Million CAGR 5% Asia Pacific 2013: 8.8 Million 2018: 13.7 Million CAGR 9% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

14 Workload Density Cloud Will Outpace Traditional Data Center by 3 Fold 8 7 Traditional Data Center Cloud Data Center 8% CAGR 6 Average Workload Density X 3X 2% CAGR 1 0 Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

15 Global Cloud Traffic Growth Cloud Traffic Will Nearly Quadruple from 2013 to % CAGR Zettabytes per Year Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

16 Global Data Center Traffic: Traditional vs. Cloud Cloud Accounts for Three-Quarters of Data Center Traffic by Traditional Data Center (8% CAGR) Cloud Data Center (32% CAGR) 24% 23% CAGR Zettabytes per Year % % 0.0 Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, %

17 Global Cloud Traffic by Region Asia Pacific to Have Highest Traffic Volume by 2018, Middle East & Africa to Experience Highest Traffic Growth North America 2013: 643 Exabytes 2018: 2.1 Zettabytes CAGR 26% Western Europe 2013: 311 Exabytes 2018: 988 Exabytes CAGR 26% Central & Eastern Europe 2013: 85 Exabytes 2018: 442 Exabytes CAGR 39% Latin America 2013: 89 Exabytes 2018: 394 Exabytes CAGR 35% Middle East & Africa 2013: 31 Exabytes 2018: 262 Exabytes CAGR 54% Asia Pacific 2013: 489 Exabytes 2018: 2.3 Zettabytes CAGR 37% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

18 Private vs. Public Cloud Hybrid Cloud is a Combination of Private and Public Clouds Enterprise Network Service Provider Network Private Cloud Hybrid Cloud Public Cloud 18

19 Private Cloud Bigger Than Public Cloud But Public Cloud is Growing Faster than Private Cloud Installed Workloads in Millions Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, Public Cloud Data Center (33% CAGR) Private Cloud Data Center (21% CAGR) 22% 78% 31% 69% % CAGR

20 Workload Density Private Cloud Will Outpace Traditional Data Center by 4.5 Fold Traditional Data Center Public Cloud Data Center Private Cloud Data Center 7% CAGR Average Workload Density % CAGR 2 2% CAGR 0 Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

21 Cloud Service Models Software as a Service (SaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Platform as a Service (PaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Cloud Customer Manages Cloud Provider Manages 21

22 Global Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Popular Cloud Service Model Through 2018 Installed Workloads in Millions PaaS (21% CAGR) IaaS (13% CAGR) SaaS (33% CAGR) 15% 44% 41% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, % 28% 59% % CAGR

23 Global Private Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Adopted Cloud Service Model by 2018; Grows the Fastest Installed Workloads in Millions PaaS (16% CAGR) IaaS (3% CAGR) SaaS (37% CAGR) 16% 49% 35% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, % 22% 64% % CAGR

24 Global Public Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Popular Cloud Service Model Through 2018; IaaS Grows Fastest Installed Workloads in Millions Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, PaaS (40% CAGR) IaaS (46% CAGR) SaaS (24% CAGR) 10% 25% 65% 13% 40% 47% % CAGR

25 Internet of Everything (IoE) Data Generation Comparison Data generated by IoE apps will reach 400 ZBs per year by That s 276 times higher than traffic projected to go from data centers to end users by (1.5 ZBs) 25

26 Big Data Examples (2014) GB per Hour Hubble Telescope Smart Building Retail Branch Car* Oil Well Hospital Manufacturing Facility Self-Driving Car Train* Airplane* Particle Accelerator ,000 2,700 5,000 40,000 60,000,000 * These represent the latest models 26

27 2014 Big Data Example: Aviation Boeing 787 Produced on Board: 40 TB per hour Transmitted to Data Center: 0.5 TB per hour 1.25% of Data Transmitted, Local Data is 80x Higher 27

28 2014 Big Data Example: Healthcare Hospital Patient Produced in Hospital per Patient: 10 GB per year Transmitted to Data Center: 80 MB per year 0.8% of Data Transmitted, Local Data is 125x Higher 28

29 Will Data Created Exceed Data Consumed? Average Traffic Per User Potential Medical Data Per User GB per Year 360 GB per Year 480 GB Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

30 By 2018, half of the world s population (50%) will have residential Internet access. By 2018, there will be 4.5 device/connections per residential internet user. By 2018, 53% of all residential Internet Users will use Personal Cloud Storage. Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,

31 Global Personal Cloud Storage Majority (53%) of Consumer Internet Users Will Use Cloud Storage by 2018 Consumers in Millions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,131 1,387 1,650 1,817 1,984 17% CAGR Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, ; Juniper Research

32 Global Personal Cloud Storage Growing Internet Access & Multi-Device Ownership (Fixed/Mobile) Drives Cloud Storage Adoption 100% Residential Internet Users as a % of Population 60% CEE LATAM APAC WE NA 20% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, MEA Average Number of Devices and Connections Per Internet User 32

33 Global Personal Cloud Storage Traffic % CAGR Exabytes per Year Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, ; Juniper Research 33

34 Cloud Readiness - Internet Ubiquity - Network Speeds and Latency Analysis 34

35 Regional Internet Access Ubiquity (2013) 100% Fixed Internet Penetration 80% 60% 40% 20% LATAM APAC CEE WE NA MEA 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Mobile Internet Penetration 35

36 Regional Internet Access Ubiquity (2018) 100% 80% NA WE Fixed Internet Penetration 60% 40% LATAM CEE 20% MEA APAC 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mobile Internet Penetration 36

37 Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Apps/Network Requirements Basic Cloud Apps Intermediate Cloud Apps Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251 1,000 kbps Latency: ms Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms 37

38 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2014) Supporting Business & Consumer Applications on Fixed Networks* In 2014, 109 countries met the single advanced application criteria for fixed network, compared to 79 countries last year. * Non-Concurrent Apps 38

39 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2014) Supporting Business & Consumer Applications on Mobile Networks* In 2014, 52 countries met the intermediate single application readiness criteria for mobile networks compared to 42 countries last year. * Non-Concurrent Apps 39

40 Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps Basic Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Network Requirements: Download Speed: kbps Upload Speed: -600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms Stream basic video/music Text communications VOIP Web browsing Web conferencing Cloud based learning management system Network Requirements: Download Speed: 7,000 kbps + + Upload Speed: 2,600 kbps Latency: ms SD Video conferencing Personal content locker HD video streaming Electronic health records ERP/CRM VoLTE Network Requirements: Download Speed: -21,000 kbps Upload Speed: -9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms Virtual office Connected medicine HD video conferencing Stream ultra HD video High frequency stock Trading Connected car safety applications 40

41 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2014) Supporting Business & Consumer Applications on Fixed Networks (Concurrent Apps) Basic Cloud Application Ready Intermediate Cloud Application Ready Advanced Cloud Application Ready Hong Kong High South Korea Luxembourg Romania Average Broadband Speed CEE APAC WE NA UAE Lithuania Netherlands Chile Uruguay Israel Low MEA LATAM High Latency Low 41

42 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2014) Supporting Business & Consumer Applications on Mobile Networks (Concurrent Apps) Basic Cloud Application Ready Intermediate Cloud Application Ready Advanced Cloud Application Ready High Uruguay UAE Oman Australia China Average Broadband Speed APAC CEE NA WE Low MEA LATAM High Latency Low 42

43 Focus on Latency: Asynchronous vs Synchronous Storage ASYNCHRONOUS SYNCHRONOUS Personal Content Locker Standard Backup Asynchronous Storage Latency Disaster Recovery Systems Data and Transaction Replication Synchronous Storage Latency 100 ms 5 ms 43

44 No. of Speed Tests MEA Highlight South Africa DL Speeds th 20 th 30 th 40 th 50 th 60 th 70 th 80 th 90 th Download (DL) Speeds in kbps Percentiles 44

45 Fixed Overall Network Characteristics (2014) 3 rd DL st DL rd UL rd UL st DL nd DL th UL th UL th DL th DL st UL st UL 5.6 North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe 6 th DL th DL th UL th UL th DL th DL th UL th UL nd DL rd DL nd UL nd UL 5.0 Latin America Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific 45

46 Mobile Overall Network Characteristics (2014) 1 st DL st DL nd UL 4.3 1st UL nd DL nd DL rd UL nd UL th DL th DL st UL th UL 0.9 North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe 5 th DL th DL th UL th UL th DL th DL th UL th UL rd DL rd DL th UL rd UL 1.6 Latin America Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific 46

47 Globally IPv6 User Projections are Nearly 24% by 2018 Source: Forecast Simulation Tool at 6lab.cisco.com 47

48 Significant Deployment of IPv6 AT&T IPv6 Deployment Comcast IPv6 Deployment Verizon Wireless IPv6 Deployment Deutsche Telecom IPv6 Deployment Source: World IPv6 Launch Organization 48

49 Cisco Global Cloud Index Where to Find More Information / Direct Questions Public URL: Please direct GCI questions to: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Media Release GCI White Paper Cloud Readiness Report GCI Q&A GCI Highlights Tool Cloud Readiness Tool 49

50 Thank you.

51 No. of Speed Tests North America Highlight US DL Speeds th 20 th 30 th 40 th 50 th 60 th 70 th 80 th 90 th Download (DL) Speeds in kbps Percentiles 51