PwC Global Media Outlook

Transcription

1 PwC Global Media Outlook

2 Consumer/end-user & advertising spending 5 year historical & 5 year forecast data 50 countries 13 segments Business-to-business Consumer and educational book publishing Consumer magazine publishing Filmed entertainment Internet access spending Internet advertising Music Newspaper publishing Out-of-home advertising Radio TV subscriptions and license fees Television advertising Video games 2

3 Where is the big picture heading?

4 Shipments of tablets and smartphones are expected to show a double-digit yearly growth Worldwide shipments of connected devices 2,500 2,000 1,892 2,084 2,260 Tablet CAGR F 23% 1,683 Unit sales - millions 1,500 1, ,217 1,469 Smartphone Portable PC 16% 1% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Desktop PC -4% 4

5 Mobile Internet penetration is expected to catch up to, and even pass, fixed broadband in some regions Fixed broadband and mobile Internet penetration Fixed Mobile Mobile Western Europe Percent Fixed BRIC F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 5

6 Digital and Internet access drive growth in the Scandinavian Entertainment & Media market Scandinavian Entertainment & Media market USD in billions Internet access Digital Nondigital CAGR F 8.4% 11.9% -0.4% 1.7% Digital is defined as: online and mobile Internet advertising mobile TV subscriptions digital music electronic home video online and wireless video games digital consumer magazine circulation spending digital newspaper circulation spending digital trade magazine circulation spending electronic consumer, educational, and professional books satellite radio subscriptions 6

7 Internet and moving pictures are expected to drive growth, while traditional media is expected to stagnate Scandinavia growth by E&M segment F Internet advertising 9.5% Out-of-home advertising 6.0% Television advertising Video games 3.5% 4.1% Music Radio Business-to-business Television subscriptions 2.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% Filmed entertainment Consumer and educational book publishing 0.3% 1.0% USD 27.3 bn CAGR: 1.7% USD 29.7 bn Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing -2.3% 0.1% F 7

8 Entertainment and Media growth rates F * Scandinavia 2.9% UK 4.0% Germany 2.5% Russia 10.1% US 4.8% France 2.4% Global 5.6% China 12.0% Japan 1.2% Brazil 10.8% India 13.5% *including Internet access Mature: 3.6% BRIC: 11.0% 8

9 Digital share of revenues in Scandinavia follows the global trend Share of digital revenue for selected media types in Scandinavia TV advertising Recorded Music Magazines Newspapers % 50% 4% 6% 2017F 4% 74% 15% 12% F CAGR of total segment 4.1% 1.3% 0.1% -2.3% 9

10 Advertising market in Scandinavia is expected to grow by 3.0% annually, where digital advertising takes market share from printed newspapers 2012 Consumer magazines 4% Other 9% Consumer magazines 4% Other 10% 2017F B2B 5% Television 21% Digital advertising 30% CAGR 3.0% B2B 3% Television 22% Digital advertising 41% Newspaper, print 30% Newspaper, print 20% 10

11 Where are the tipping points and segment variations?

12 Digital revenues are expected to grow by 13.2% annually Digital CAGR Western Europe F E-book publishing 26.6 % Digital television advertising 24.1 % Digital consumer magazine publishing 23.5 % Digital filmed entertainment 21.3 % Digital newspaper publishing 14.9 % Digital business-to-business 11.9 % USD 33.9 bn CAGR 13,2% USD 63.0 bn Internet advertising 9.6 % Digital music 9.6 % F 12

13 Internet advertising continue to grow, lead by online video and mobile Scandinavia Internet advertising USD in billions Video Mobile Search Classified Banner/display CAGR F 50.0% 19.4% 9.2% 6.6% 8.4% F2014F2015F2016F2017F 13

14 Mobile advertising will overtake classified revenues globally by Classified advertising will continue to be strong in Scandinavia Global Internet advertising 80 Scandinavia Internet advertising 1.4 USD in billions USD in billions

15 Growth in digital newspaper revenues will not compensate for the decline in print revenues Scandinavia newspaper market USD in billions % 3% 57% 3% 56% 4% 54% 5% % 52% 50% 49% 48% 47% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% Print advertising Digital advertising CAGR F -4.6% 9.3% % 40% 40% 41% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42% 41% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Print circulation Digital circulation -2.2% 27.9% 15

16 Consumer magazine revenues in Scandinavia are expected to remain flat Scandinavia consumer magazine market CAGR 0.1% USD in billions % 25% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 25% 1.2 1% 1% 1.0 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% % 74% 73% 72% 70% 68% 67% 65% 63% 60% 0.4 Print advertising Digital advertising Print circulation CAGR F 0.1% 17.2% -3.0% % 2% 2% 4% 5% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 8% Digital circulation 53.4% 16

17 Filmed entertainment market is expected to grow by 0.9% annually driven by VOD and streaming Scandinavia filmed entertainment market CAGR F USD in billions % 4% 69% 30% 6% 64% 29% 7% 64% 31% 8% 61% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 36% 10% 12% 15% 18% 21% 25% 58% 55% 51% 47% 44% 39% Cinema tickets Electronic home video 3.1% 20.7% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Physical home video -6.6% 17

18 Even though Over-the-top (OTT) will earn a small portion of revenue, operators cannot ignore it 6% 6% Global OTT share of overall pay TV revenues (2017) Scandinavian OTT share of overall pay TV revenues (2017) According to 2013 PwC Consumer Intelligence Survey in the US, a full half of consumers aged said they are likely to use the Web to satisfy their entertainment needs. "A couple of people I know have been cancelling their cable altogether and they just use (an OTT service) because it s cheaper. There are some things that you can do with the Internet that you can t get with cable. - Customer vs. 18

19 Pay TV industry will remain resilient, despite threats from streaming and VOD Subscription revenues in Scandinavia USD in billions % 94% 93% 92% 91% 89% % 96% 97% 97% Over-thetop/streaming VOD (TV distributors) Television subscriptions CAGR F 47.3% 8.4% 0.8% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 19

20 OTT / streaming revenue will drive the vast majority of the growth in electronic home video in Scandinavia Scandinavia filmed entertainment market USD in millions Over-thetop/streaming VOD CAGR F 47.3% 8.4% F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 20

21 CEO perspective: Entertainment and Media 80% of E&M CEOs are confident about their company s prospects for revenue growth over the next three years despite perceived threats like uncertain economy, fiscal debt, and new market entrants Striving for positions, competitiveness and growth: Agility and customer insight: extract, utilize and capitalize Big Data Digital innovation: create and develop competitive advantages Distribution strategies the right content at the right time, on the right platforms, at the right prices Cost levels and efficiency minimize fixed cost base 21

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23 Find your own Outlook story online... Oslo Eivind Nilsen Partner, revisjon Tlf: Oslo Per Carlsson Senior Manager, revisjon Tlf:

24 PwC. All rights reserved. In this context, PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers AS, Advokatfirmaet PricewaterhouseCoopers AS, PricewaterhouseCoopers Accounting AS and PricewaterhouseCoopers Skatterådgivere AS which are member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.