Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
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1 Under Embargo Until February 5, 2014 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global and North America (NA) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update February 2014
2 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco s IP Thought Leadership Cisco VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Data Global Mobile Speed Data Cisco Confidential 2
3 Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds More Mobile Users More Mobile Video Billion Billion Mbps Mbps Billion Billion % of Traffic % of Traffic Cisco Confidential 3
4 Overview Cisco Confidential 4
5 By 2018, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes per year, up from 18 exabytes in 2013 (nearly 11-fold growth). 190X More than all IP traffic generated in Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram) 4 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
6 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11-Fold from % CAGR EB 2.6 EB 4.4 EB 7.0 EB 10.8 EB 15.9 EB Cisco Confidential 6
7 Year in Review 2013 Strong Growth Reported Worldwide Country Trend Korea As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 70% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q China Mobile data traffic of China s top 3 mobile operators grew 72% from mid-2012 to mid Japan Mobile data traffic grew 92% in 2012 and 66% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2013, according to Japan s MIC. India Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 112% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 116% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q Australia As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 47% from mid-2012 to mid Italy As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 34% Y/Y. France As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 60% from 2Q 2013 to 2Q Germany As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 40% in Sweden As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 69 percent from mid-2012 to mid Russia Vimpelcom reported mobile data traffic growth of 106% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q Other Vodafone s Y/Y global mobile traffic growth was 60% from 1Q FY12 to 1Q FY13. Vodafone s European traffic grew 35% during FY 12-13, up from 18% the previous FY Cisco Confidential 7
8 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (70%) from APAC will Generate 42% of all Mobile Data Traffic by Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC) % CAGR % 9.4% 10.3% 12.0% 18.6% 42.4% Cisco Confidential 8
9 Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Data Traffic Will Increase Nearly 11-Fold From 1.5 EB/month in 2013 to 15.9 EB/month by 2018 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 7.6-fold Growth 389 to 2,954 PB/mo 7.5-fold Growth 254 to 1,900 PB/mo 13.2-fold Growth 124 to 1,641 PB/mo Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 12.6-fold Growth 92 to 1,158 PB/mo 14.1-fold Growth 106 to 1,490 PB/mo 12.8-fold Growth 524 to 6,718 PB/mo Cisco Confidential 9
10 Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa ,049 1,384 8, , , , , ,983 Cisco Confidential 10
11 Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage MB Traffic/month 2 Hours of Video 2 Hours of Audio 5 Video Calls 2 App Downloads 3.0 GB Traffic/month 20 Hours of Video 10 Hours of Audio 10 Video Calls 20 App Downloads Cisco Confidential 11
12 Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2013 to 2018 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region s Mobile Data Traffic Growth Region # of Mobile Users # of Mobile Devices / M2M # of Users 2GB / Month Avg. Mobile Speed Mobile Data Traffic Asia Pacific 2.7B users +4% (CAGR) 5.1B connects +8% (CAGR) 835M 2GB users +76% (CAGR) 2 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 6.7 EBs/Mo +67% (CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe 385M users +1% (CAGR) 874M connects +6% (CAGR) 128M 2GB users +108% (CAGR) 2.3 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.6 EBs/Mo +68% (CAGR) Latin America 467M users +2% (CAGR) 947M connects +6% (CAGR) 137M 2GB users +101% (CAGR) 1.0 Mbps +8% (CAGR) 1.2 EBs/Mo +66% (CAGR) Middle East & Africa 733M users +5% (CAGR) 1.6B connects +8% (CAGR) 207M 2GB users +107% (CAGR) 0.9 Mbps +11% (CAGR) 1.5 EBs/Mo +70% (CAGR) North America 301M users +2% (CAGR) 736M connects +12% (CAGR) 156M 2GB users +21% (CAGR) 4.5 Mbps +21% (CAGR) 3.0 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Western Europe 364M users +1% (CAGR) 938M connects +10% (CAGR) 148M 2GB users +35% (CAGR) 3.0 Mbps +14% (CAGR) 1.9 EBs/Mo +50% (CAGR) Note: The numbers above pertain to 2018, and the CAGR s are for period. Cisco Confidential 12
13 Drivers Cisco Confidential 13
14 Global Mobile Users From Over 4 Billion in 2013 to Nearly 5 Billion by 2018 at 3.5% CAGR Global Mobile Users Growing 3.2X Faster Than Global Population North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2013: 278 M 2018: 301 M CAGR 1.6% 2013: 349 M 2018: 364 M CAGR 0.9% 2013: 361 M 2018: 385 M CAGR 1.3% Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2013: 419 M 2018: 467 M CAGR 2.2% 2013: 565 M 2018: 733 M CAGR 5.3% 2013: 2,153 M 2018: 2,653 M CAGR 4.3% Cisco Confidential 14
15 Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7 Billion in 2013 to Over10 Billion by 2018 at 8% CAGR North America 2013: 425 M 2018: 736 M CAGR 11.6% Western Europe 2013: 590 M 2018: 938 M CAGR 9.7% Central/Eastern Europe 2013: 655 M 2018: 874 M CAGR 5.9% Latin America 2013: 717 M 2018: 947 M CAGR 5.7% Middle East & Africa 2013: 1,116 M 2018: 1,628 M CAGR 7.9% Asia Pacific 2013: 3,506 M 2018: 5,107 M CAGR 7.8% Cisco Confidential 15
16 Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will Nearly Double From 1.4 Mbps (2013) to 2.5 Mbps (2018) North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps 1.9-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.0 Mbps 1.7-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.3 Mbps Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps 1.7-fold Growth 0.5 to 0.9 Mbps 1.5-fold Growth 1.3 to 2.0 Mbps Cisco Confidential 16
17 Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2018 Video Drives 69% of Global Mobile Data Traffic, Up From 53% in 2013 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 67% of traffic by % CAGR 71% of traffic by % CAGR 64% of traffic by % CAGR Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 72% of traffic by % CAGR 76% of traffic by % CAGR 69% of traffic by % CAGR Cisco Confidential 17
18 Top Trends Cisco Confidential 18
19 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 19
20 Billions of Devices Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Will Gain 14 Points to Reach 39% Share Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%) Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%) Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%) 8% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Cisco Confidential 20
21 Billions of Devices or Connections Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share 7 6 4G 3G 2G 59% 5 68% 48% % 26% 2 29% 1 8% 15% 0 3% Cisco Confidential 21
22 Billions of Devices Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 54% Share Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections 8% CAGR % 74% 68% 61% 54% 46% % 46% 32% 39% 21% 26% * Smart devices are those having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity. Cisco Confidential 22
23 Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa % 54% 65% 93% 45% 83% 15% 61% 14% 55% 17% 47% 10% 36% Cisco Confidential 23
24 Exabytes per Month Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 96% Share of Traffic Non-smart Traffic Smart Traffic 12% 88% 10% 90% 9% 91% 93% 95% 96% % CAGR * Smart traffic is generated by devices with advanced computing capabilities and a 3G connection (or higher). 7% 5% 4% Cisco Confidential 24
25 Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa % 96% 98% 100% 95% 100% 75% 95% 81% 96% 85% 95% 76% 90% Cisco Confidential 25
26 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 26
27 Billions of M2M Connections Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from ; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G B 28% 71% 3G 2G 4G 0.5 B 34% 64% 0.8 B 41% * In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014,1.5% connections, in 2015, 3% connections and in 2016,5.6% connections are 4G. 41% 56% 1.1 B 47% 48% 1.6 B 50% 9% 2.0 B 51% 35% 14% 43% CAGR Cisco Confidential 27
28 Millions of Connected Wearables % with Embedded Cellular Connectivity Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from ; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity 52% CAGR M M M M M M % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Cisco Confidential 28
29 Millions of Connected Wearables Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Maintain the Largest Share Western Europe (25%, 26%) North America (42%, 34%) Middle East & Africa (3%, 4%) Latin America (5%, 5%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%, 6%) Asia Pacific (21%, 25%) 22 M 36 M 58 M 88 M 127 M 177 M * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable device share 52% CAGR Cisco Confidential 29
30 Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from Monthly Traffic (PB) % of Smartphone Traffic 105% CAGR % 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Cisco Confidential 30
31 Monthly Traffic (PB) Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America Will Maintain the Largest Share Western Europe (17%, 21%) North America (65%, 50%) Middle East & Africa (1%, 2%) Latin America (2%, 3%) Central & Eastern Europe (3%, 5%) 34 Asia Pacific (12%, 19%) 105% CAGR * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable devices traffic share Cisco Confidential 31
32 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 32
33 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by Mobile File Sharing (2.9%) Mobile M2M (5.7%) Mobile Audio (10.6%) Mobile Web/Data (11.7%) Mobile Video (69.1%) Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share % CAGR Cisco Confidential 33
34 Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 82% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2013 Cloud Will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10% 82% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90% Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic IP Voice File Sharing File/App Downloading Mobile Cloud Traffic Video Streaming Audio Streaming Online Gaming Social Networking Web Browsing Online Storage Cisco Confidential 34
35 Top Global Traffic Generating Apps Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android) Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android) Facebook Social Media Netflix Video Streaming YouTube Video Streaming Instagram Image Sharing Netflix Video Streaming Dropbox File Sharing TubeMate Video Downloading Facebook Social Media Instagram Image Sharing YouTube Video Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News SoundCloud Audio Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News VLC Media Player Video Streaming Skype Communications BSPlayer Video Streaming Twitter Communications Spotify Audio Streaming Dropbox File Sharing NYTimes News Spotify Audio Streaming Hulu Video Streaming Pandora Audio Streaming TubeMate Video Streaming Cisco Confidential 35
36 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 36
37 Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa , , , , , , Cisco Confidential 37
38 Mobile Device Data Traffic 2013 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons M2M Module = 6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Wearable Device = Smartphone 7 X 49 X Tablet = 127 X Laptop = = 227 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Cisco Confidential 38
39 Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type 2013 MBs per Month 2018 MBs per Month Non-Smartphone M2M Wearable Smartphone 529 2,672 Tablet 1,374 5,609 Laptop 2,455 5,095 Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month Cisco Confidential 39
40 Wearable Device Usage Day in the Life of Smart Glass (249 MB) High Usage Scenario Traffic in MB Video Communication Navigation Audio Streaming Video Upload Cisco Confidential 40
41 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 41
42 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by G 3-3.5G 4G 46% 4 51% 9% 2 60% 30% % Cisco Confidential 42
43 Globally, in 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo, 14.5X higher than the 153 MB/mo for non-4g connections Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 43
44 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by % of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 48% % *Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks Cisco Confidential 44
45 Mobile and Offload Traffic from Mobile-Connected Devices Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 51% 44% 60% 56% 49% 40% 2G 3G 4G Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic Cisco Confidential 45
46 Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 69% by Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 51% by Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 46
47 Petabytes per Month Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic 120, ,000 80,000 Mobile Data (67% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (13% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR) 23% CAGR % 42% 60,000 40,000 20,000 48% Cisco Confidential 47
48 Cellular vs. Wi-Fi Only Tablets Ratio Global Tablet Connectivity: Cellular vs. Wi-Fi Only Cellular Continues to Gain Share 70% Wi-Fi Only Cellular 60% 50% 40% 66% 58% 42% 30% 34% 20% 10% 0% Cisco Confidential 48
49 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 49
50 Mobile Network Speeds to Increase Nearly 2-fold by 2018 Average Mobile Connection Speed (1.4 Mbps in 2013); Will Grow at a 13% CAGR Reaching 2.5 Mbps by 2018 (kbps) GLOBAL Global Mobile Connection Global Smartphone Connection Global Tablet Connection BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa ,387 1,728 1,585 1, , ,676 3,983 4,864 4,591 5,584 2,010 1,735 1, , ,908 2,304 1,946 1, , ,147 5,504 6,132 6,298 6,983 2,620 2,183 1, , ,396 2,988 2,452 1, , ,509 6,756 7,044 8,018 8,998 4,549 3,003 1, , CAGR % 12% 14% 21% 14% 8% 8% 11% 11% Cisco Confidential 50
51 Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi exceeds Mobile speeds during (Mbps) GLOBAL Global Mbps BY REGION North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa Cisco Confidential 51
52 Mbps Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.6x Higher than Average by 2018 Smartphone Speeds are 2.8x Higher than Average by Tablets Smartphones All Mobile Devices Mbps 7 Mbps 3 Mbps Cisco Confidential 52
53 Mbps Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 6X Higher than Average by G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by G 3G All Network Types 2G Mbps 5 Mbps 3 Mbps 92 Kbps Cisco Confidential 53
54 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 54
55 Percentage of Top 1 percent to total MB/mo Top Mobile User Profiles: Top 1 Percent Generates10 Percent in Sept % 50% 40% 30% 52% Top 1 % 20% 24% 10% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 55
56 MB per User per Month Remaining 99% Growing Faster than Top 1% 100% Top 1% 90% Remaining 99% 80% 70% 84% 90% 60% 50% 52% 40% 48% 30% 20% 10% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 56
57 Top Tier %Usage Top 10% Consumes Nearly as Much as the Remaining 90% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Top 1% Oct-12 Remaining 99% Top 5% Jun-13 Remaining 95% Top 10% Remaining 90% Top 20% Remaining 80% Cisco Confidential 57
58 Megabytes per Month All Top Tiers Increase in Usage from 2011 to ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Top 20% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1% 10,000 5,000 0 Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 58
59 Percentage of Users 3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Greater than 5 GB Greater than 2 GB Greater than 200 MB Greater than 20 MB Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 3% 24% 75% 93% 97% Greater than 1 MB Cisco Confidential 59
60 Megabytes per Month ios Usage Surpasses Android 1,400 1,200 1, MB/mo 1,325 MB/mo 1,255 MB/mo 652 MB/mo 960 MB/mo 1,296 MB/mo Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep Android ios Cisco Confidential 60
61 % Number of Mobile Data Plans Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption 100% 80% 60% 739 MB 1,261 MB 1,890 MB Unlimited Tiered 40% 20% 425 MB 922 MB 1,081 MB 0% Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 61
62 % Number of Mobile Data Plans Number of Shared Plans Increase No Impact on Usage 100% 80% Regular Plans Shared Plans 60% 792 MB 1.4 MB 40% 20% 946 MB 0% 648 MB Oct-12 Sep-13 Cisco Confidential 62
63 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 63
64 Number of Devices (B) Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 4.9B Total IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections B % CAGR B Cisco Confidential 64
65 Exabytes per Month Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2018, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 42% of Mobile Data Traffic % CAGR EB/ month EB/ month Cisco Confidential 65
66 VNI Mobile Forecast Update, Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Measuring IoE Adoption Emerging Wearable Devices 3 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Dominance 4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G) 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds Wi-Fi Wins 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Managing Top Mobile Users 8 Adopting IPv6 Beyond an Emerging Protocol 9 Defining Mobile Prime Time Peak vs. Average Usage Cisco Confidential 66
67 Tbps Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic Cisco Confidential 67
68 Conclusion Cisco Confidential 68
69 Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, Key Takeaways / Summary Global Mobile Data Traffic By 2018, mobile data traffic will reach 15.9 EBs/per month (190 EBs annually). Global Mobile Traffic Offload By 2018, 52% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks. Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic By 2018, smart devices will generate 96% of global mobile data traffic. Global Mobile Video By 2018, over 69% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video. Global Mobile Network Speeds By 2018, avg mobile connection speed will nearly double (1.4 Mbps to 2.5 Mbps). Global Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, there will be 1.4 mobile connections per capita globally. Cisco Confidential 69
70 Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; Get more info see Tools and Resources Cisco Confidential 70
71 Thank you.
72 Exabytes per Month Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth Last Year Global Mobile Data Traffic Accelerated in % 70% 74% 68% 61% 54% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cisco Confidential 72
73 Average Mobile Connection; Traffic per Month MB Traffic/month 1 Hour of Video 2 Hours of Audio 1 Video Call 1 App Download 1.8 GB Traffic/month 10 Hours of Video 10 Hours of Audio 3 Video Calls 10 App Downloads Cisco Confidential 73
74 Number of Devices (B) Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 3.5B Smartphones/Tablets IPv6-Capable M % CAGR B Cisco Confidential 74
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