Interest rates, the exchange rate and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Transcription

1 Interest rates, the exchange rate and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Governor Svein Gjedrem Mid-Norway Chamber of Commerce and Industry November Inflation Moving year-average and variation in CPI. Per cent CPI Variation in CPI Inflation target Sources: Statistics Norway and

2 Low inflation CPI and CPI-ATE. -month change. Per cent Inflation target CPI CPI-ATE - - Source: Statistics Norway Strong economic growth GDP mainland Norway. Annual growth. Per cent - Average Sources: Statistics Norway and

3 Prolonged cyclical upswing GDP mainland Norway. Index. Quarter =. Seasonally adjusted 9 Q 9 Q 99 Q - 9 Number of quarters 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Tight labour market Registered unemployed. Percentage of labour force Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV)

4 Wage share ) and registered unemployment Per cent Wage share, left-hand scale Unemployment, right-hand scale ) Labour costs as share of factor income. Market-oriented enterprises in mainland Norway. Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) and Wage-earners real wages and corporate earnings Annual growth. Per cent - Wage-earners real wages Corporate earnings Sources: Statistics Norway and

5 Capacity utilisation Regional network. Share of respondents that report they will have problems accommodating an increase in demand. Per cent Building and construction Industry Total Retail trade Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Source: 9 s regional network REGION NORTH-WEST Møreforsking Molde REGION SOUTH- WEST International Research Institute of Stavanger REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Centre for Economic Research at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning REGION EAST REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Region Central Norway: Moderate to solid growth Growth is expected to continue Investments are expected to increase Employment is expected to increase Source:

6 House prices and credit to households Change in -month moving average. Annual rate. Per cent Credit (C) House prices - - Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, Econ Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Regional house prices -month change. Per cent. January October Møre and Romsdal Oslo Agder Rogaland Trøndelag Norway, total Hedmark - Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. - Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, Econ Pöyry, Statistics Norway and

7 Turnover and number of houses for sale Seasonally adjusted. January October Number of houses for sale Turnover Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no and Econ Pöyry Terms of trade Index, 9 Q =. -quarter moving average 9 9 Total Traditional goods and services Sources: Statistics Norway and

8 Population growth and net inward migration In thousands. 9- ) Registered employees from new EU countries s of persons in the period Jan.-Oct. Latvia Population growth Estonia Lithuania Poland Net inward migration ) Estimate calculated as sum Q Q. Sources: Statistics Norway and Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs Productivity growth in the business sector ) Trend. Annual growth in per cent ) Mainland Norway excluding public sector, export industry, electricity supply and housing services. Sources: Statistics Norway and

9 Credit spreads on US subprime asset-backed securities First half of vintage. Percentage points Rating BBB- Rating AAA Rating A Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Source: Lehman Brothers. Spreads between -month money market rates and expected key rates ) Percentage points UK Euro area... US.... Norway ).. Apr. Jun. Aug. Oct. ) The expected key rate is measured by Overnight indexed swap (OIS). ) Estimates. Sources: Bloomberg and 9

10 Policy rates and forward rates Per cent. Forward rates on November US UK Norway Euro area Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.9 Jan. Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Bloomberg and 9 -month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ) January December 9 I- (left-hand scale) November 9 November 9 Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale) 9 - ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters (EcoWin) and

11 Gas price USD/Sm Oil price (Brent Blend) and gas price Per barrel in USD and euro. Januar May 9 ) Futures prices in euros are calculated on the basis of the exchange rate on November. Oil price (USD) Gas price Statoil/Hydro (USD) Oil price (Euro) Nov. Nov. ) Oil price USD/barrel 9 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Investment in oil and gas recovery including pipeline transport Investment level in billions of NOK (constant -prices) Sources: Statistics Norway and

12 International commodity prices in USD Index, = Price of fresh Norwegian salmon In NOK Metals Food Industrials All items Non-food agriculturals Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), The Economist and Statistics Norway Government Pension Fund - Global Transfers to government budget and expected real returns In billions of -kroner Expected real returns Cyclically adjusted transfers Transfers 9 Source: Ministry of Finance (National Budget )

13 Underlying growth in spending over government budget and growth in mainland GDP Per cent. 9 ) Underlying spending growth Growth in mainland GDP ) Estimates for and from Ministry of Finance Sources: Ministry of Finance (National Budget ) and Statistics Norway 9 9 Key policy rate Inflation (CPI) Baseline scenario Monetary Policy Report /. Per cent. Q Q Capacity utilisation Underlying inflation (CPI- ATE) Sources: Statistics Norway and

14 9 9 Key policy rate Inflation (CPI) Baseline scenario Monetary Policy Report /. Per cent. Q Q % % % 9% Capacity utilisation Underlying inflation (CPI- ATE) Sources: Statstics Norway and