Trends in Global Markets for Corrugated Packaging

Transcription

1 Trends in Global Markets for Corrugated Packaging FPPA 16 th Annual Convention March 4, 2013 Dick Storat, President, PSSMA & President, RSA, Inc. 1

2 Paper Shipping Sack Manufacturers Association (PSSMA) National trade association of multiwall sack and bag producers. Members represent over 90% of US production Industry sales of $1.2 Billion Comprehensive statistical program Strong Associate & International Member Program Visit 2

3 Richard Storat & Associates, Inc. Economic consulting services for the paper packaging and allied industries Focus on industry level analysis of Containerboard and corrugated Kraft paper and multiwall sacks Support Trade Associations in statistical programs and analysis Publish Scoring Boxes TM, a monthly analysis of containerboard markets Timely delivery of key industry statistics Extensive graphs highlight current industry trends Quick-read incisive analysis of market conditions Tools to make informed decisions 3

4 Scoring Boxes TM 4

5 Agenda Global Corrugated Market Profile and Growth Projections US Corrugated Market Trends

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7 9% of World Total or 18 billion square meters Source: ICCA

8 Top 15 Country Ranking by Corrugated Output 2010 China USA Japan Germany Italy India France Brazil South Korea Spain Indonesia UK Thailand Poland Canada Source: ICCA % Share 19 Top 1 = 25% of Global Production Top 3 = 50% of Global Production Top 15 = 80% of Global Production 24

9 Factors Affecting Global Corrugated Demand Economic Growth Industrial Production Population Growth Per Capita Income and Growth Per Capita Corrugated Consumption Corrugated Construction (Basis Weight) 9

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11 Source: RSA, Inc. 11

12 Industrial Production vs. Corrugated Production ( ) Ind. Prod. Corr'd Prod. Percent North America Europe Pacific Rim China Rest of Asia C & S America World Source: ICCA

13 Source: RSA, Inc. 13

14 Source: RSA, Inc.

15 Source: World Bank, RSA, Inc.

16 Source: World Bank, RSA, Inc.

17 Source: RSA, Inc.

18 Africa = 2) Source: ICCA, RSA Inc.

19 *(5%) *(6%) *(21%) *(9%) *(24%) *(25%) *2011 shares Source: ICCA *(10%) 19

20 Source: ICCA 20

21 Source: ICCA

22 Source: ICCA PSSMA Multiwall, Source: The ICCA Natural Packaging Choice

23 Source: ICCA 23

24 Source: ICCA 24

25 Source: ICCA 25

26 Source: ICCA 26

27 Global Corrugated Trends Summary Per capita corrugated output will grow by 30-35% in Asia, but marginally elsewhere Better packaging productivity and environmental awareness will drive more packaging reduction Corrugated s share of packaging should not change significantly Global corrugated demand will grow at an average annual rate of 3-4%, compared to 2.8% average growth over the past 5 years. China holds a 25% share of global corrugated output and will contribute half of global corrugated growth. Retail Ready Packaging will grow share of corrugated packaging Microflute continues to offer above average growth potential Decorative print will grow faster than the overall rate of corrugated Source: RSA, Inc., ICCA 27

28 Factors Affecting US Corrugated Markets Economic Activity Consumption of Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Activity Containerboard Consumption Inventory Changes 28

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30 Source: BEA 30

31 Source: BEA 31

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34 Source: US Federal Reserve 34

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40 Containerboard Flows January 2013 (000 Tons) Other Sources (Imputed): 66 Capacity: 3,067 Unmade: 89 Production: Op. Rate Mills Liner: 2,122 Medium: 857 Consumption: 2,533 Corrugators Made for Export: Richard Storat & Associates, Inc. Made Exported Jan Dec Liner Medium 43 49

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43 Monthly Change in Containerboard Flows December 2012 January 2013 (000 Short Tons) = Change in US Mill Shipments Change in Change in = + + Exports Imputed Other Uses Change in Box Plant Domestic Receipts 1 1 Box Plant Domestic Receipts = Corrugator Consumption + Inventory Accumulation - Imports Source: RSA, Inc.

44 THANK YOU Thank you for the opportunity to participate! What are your questions and feedback? Dick Storat