Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil

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1 Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil

2 Land Use for Ethanol (2006) BRAZIL Ethanol production from sugarcane Agricultural area (million ha) Sugarcane to Sugarcane (billion litres/year) (million bbl/day) ethanol (total) Production To replace 10% total gasoline consumption* To replace 10% total petroleum consumption* Sugarcane agricultural area in the world 20 UNITED STATES Ethanol production from corn Agricultural area (million ha) (billion litres/year) (million bbl/day) Corn to ethanol Corn (total) Production Corn agricultural area in the world 144 World s total agricultural area: 1,228 million hectares *World petroleum consumption (2005): 4,478 billion litres/year * World gasoline consumption (2005): 1,292 billion litres/year

3 ETHANOL DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1 st Generation Technology Maize (US) a Sugarcane (Brazil) b European Union [i] Area used million/ha Liters (billion) Gallons (billion) Area million/ha Liters (billion) Gallons (billions) Liters (billion) Gallons (billion) c d / e nd Generation Technology US Brazil European Union Liters (billion) Gallon (billion)?? a.productivity in 2006: 3,647 l/ha corn b.productivity in 2006: 6,138 l/ha sugarcane c.18% of total maize area in the US; 3.2% of total maize area in the world. d.13% of total sugarcane area in the world; 47% of the sugarcane area in Brazil. a.present EU production 2 billion liters/year mainly from sugarbeets. [i] Biofuels Research Advisory Council, Biofuels in the European Union A vision for 2030 and beyond. 40 pp x 21.0 cm. ISBN ISSN (EUR series Luxemburg). Available at:

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5 Comparison of the Production Costs of Ethanol in Brazil, United States and Germany (HENNIGES and ZEDDIES, 2004). Cost in /1000 liters USA Corn German y Wheat German y Beets Brazi l Cane Buildings 0,39 0,82 0,82 0,21 Equipment 3,40 5,30 5,30 1,15 Labor 2,83 1,40 1,40 0,52 Insurance, taxes and other costs 0,61 1,02 1,02 0,48 Feedstock 20,9 3 27,75 35,10 9,80 Other operation costs 11,3 1 18,68 15,93 2,32 Total Production Cost 39,4 7 54,97 59,57 14,48 Sale of byproducts 6,71 6,80 7,20 Government subsidies 7,93 Net Production Cost 24,8 3 48,17 52,37 14,48

6 Energy balance of alcohol production from different feedstocks 12 energy output/input ratio (from fossil fuels) Sugarcane Sugar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood ethanol feedstock

7 Map of Brazil locating sugarcane cultures Amazon Forest Pantanal grasslands Atlantic Rainforest Sugarcane cultures

8 Introduction The Brazilian Alcohol Program The world largest commercial program on biomass Started in 1975 by Federal Government Decision from Brazilian Federal Government to produce ethanol in addition to sugar (from sugarcane): objective of reducing petroleum imports (Gulf War). Highoctane fuel in vehicles, replacing lead and/or MTBE. 1,300,000 cars running on pure (hydrated) ethanol in Brazil 2,300,000 flexfuel vehicles (both ethanol and gasoline, any blend) all gasoline blended with (anhydrous) ethanol: 20 to 26% of ethanol in volume basis gasohol Nowadays economically competitive to gasoline 8

9 The Economic Competitiveness of Alcohol Fuel Compared to Gasoline 1000 price paid to ethanol producers; gasoline prices (2004) US$ / m Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m 3 ) Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline price BR regular gasoline price

10 Industrial Yield Brazil (in liters of hydrous alcohol equivalent per hectare) 2024 Fonte: Datagro +3.77% per year in 29 years

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12 Energy Contained in 1,000 tons of Sugar Cane (in tons of oil equivalent ) Sucrose Bagasse Tops and Leaves Fonte: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000

13 Composition of sugarcane bagasse Cellulose 46% Others 8% Lignine 21% Hemicellulose 25%

14 Sales of Flex Fuel cars in automobiles in Brazil 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 66,0% 64,5% 59,1% 52,6% 50% 59% 52% 77% 78% 76% 77% 80% 81% 77% 71% 80% 77% 77% 66% 73% 67% 69% 82% 88% 86% 83% 84% 88% 86% 86% 83% 84% 82% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29% 27% 40% 35,7% 43,4% 41,4% 32,2% 27,0% 34% 27,7% 21,9% 19,0% 19,0%18,2% 23,9% 25,2% 19,3% 13,8% 13,3% 12,7% 18,3% 17,9% 18,1% 9,9% 15,6% 15,6% 14,1% 13,1% 13,0% 12,4% 8% 9% 10% 10% jan/05 mar maio julho set nov jan/06 mar maio julho set nov jan/07 mar mai jul set Flex Fuel Gasolina

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16 Land Use Brazil (2006) Main crops hectares Wheat 1,558, % Cassava 1,901, % Coffee 2,325, % Rice 2,974, % Beans 4,016, % Sugar cane 6,152, % Maize 12,602, % Soybeans 22,006, % Other crops 10,786, % Total 64,325, % Source: faostat.fao.org

17 Land Use United States (2006) Main crops hectares Rice 1,142, % Barley 1,194, % Sorghum 1,998, % Maize (for forage and silage) 2,395, % Seed cotton 5,187, % Cotton lint 5,586, % Cottonseed 5,586, % Alfalfa for forage and silage 9,067, % Wheat 20,280, % Maize 28,590, % Soybeans 28,983, % Other crops 8,957, % Total 118,968, % Source: faostat.fao.org

18 Land Use World (2006) Main Crops hectares Sugar cane 20,398, % Groundnuts 22,231, % Sunflower seed 23,700, % Bean 26,540, % Rapeseed 27,796, % Millet 32,845, % Seed cotton 34,732, % Cotton lint 35,021, % Cottonseed 35,291, % Sorghum 41,500, % Barley 55,516, % Soybeans 92,988, % Maize 144,376, % Rice 154,323, % Wheat 216,100, % Other crops 375,478, % Total 1,338,843, % Source: faostat.fao.org

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