World Fuel Ethanol. Analysis and Outlook. Prepared for METI. Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht

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1 Analysis and Outlook Prepared for METI By Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht 1

2 Some basic concepts By production route: Fermentation vs. Synthetic By composition: Anhydrous vs. Hydrous By end-use: Beverage, Industrial, Fuel 2

3 The production route Synthetic ethanol: Ethylene, coal; non-renewable Fermentation ethanol: Grains, sugar crops, tapioca, wood etc; renewable 3

4 The largest synthetic producers Aprechim Chempetrol Neftochim Jilin Chemicals Japan Ethanol Mossgas Sodes Equistar BP SADAF Sasol Capacity (1000 tonnes/y) 4

5 Share of synthetic ethanol Fermentation 95% Synthetic 5% 5

6 Composition Anhydrous: 99 pure, may be used in fuel blends. Hydrous: 96 pure, may be used as 100% fuel substitute. 6

7 Fuel alcohol in Brazil mln litres Hydrous Anhydrous 7

8 End use Beverage alcohol: Alcoholic spirits: vodka, shochu etc. Industrial alcohol: Cosmetics, paints, inks. Fuel alcohol: Blends or pure form. 8

9 Ethanol production by type in mln litres Industrial Beverage Fuel 9

10 Grains Sugar 10

11 2003 Grains Sugar 11

12 2013 Grains Sugar 12

13 The drivers of growth I Ethanol is good for the environment (Kyoto) good for rural areas reduces dependence on oil imports enhances technological knowledge base 13

14 The drivers of growth II Demand is virtually unlimited. Cost reduction potential is huge. A tried and tested technology. 14

15 Success factors for biofuels Feedstocks Technology Policy 15

16 World fuel ethanol production by feedstock Sugar crops 61% Grains 39% 16

17 Ethanol yields per ha USA (corn) Brazil (cane) France (beet) Production (litres/ha) 17

18 Ethanol yields per tonne of feedstock USA (corn) Brazil (cane) France (beet) Production (litres/tonne) 18

19 Gross feedstock costs per litre of fuel ethanol USA (corn) Brazil (cane) France (beet) Costs (US Cents/litre) 19

20 Energy balance by feedstock RME (Biodiesel) Wheat US corn Sugar beet Biomass Sugar cane Energy output/energy input 20

21 The case for political support Ethanol may serve socially desirable goals but it... is more expensive than gasoline faces an unfavourable opportunity cost structure 21

22 Production cost reducing subsidies Feedstock price support. Capital cost support. Income tax concessions. 22

23 Income enhancing subsidies Excise tax concessions. Guaranteed (captive) markets. Price guarantees. Direct price support 23

24 Ethanol in Brazil in per cent Ethanol Gasoline 24

25 Brazil ethanol vs. gasoline economics in % Price advantage of alcohol over gasoline 25

26 Brazil s ethanol/methanol trade mln litres Imports Exports 26

27 Determinants of volatility in Brazil The weather: El Nino, La Nina. Sugar cane serves as raw material in two (four) markets: Sugar (domestic and international) Ethanol (domestic and international) 27

28 Brazil ethanol vs. sugar economics 0.45 BRL/kg of total recoverable sugars Sugar domestic Anhydrous alcohol 28

29 Brazil ethanol vs. sugar economics % Profitability domestic sugar/ethanol 29

30 Brazil ethanol vs. sugar economics 0.35 BRL/kg of total recoverable sugars Sugar exports (VHP) Anhydrous alcohol (AAC) 30

31 Brazil ethanol vs. sugar economics % Profitability sugar exports/ethanol 31

32 Remedies Spread cane growing over the country. Decouple ethanol from sugar production (dedicated ethanol-forexport plants). 32

33 US ethanol mln litres Clean Air Act California RFS (?) Tax incentive (Y2) Output (Y1) 33

34 Will high stocks boost US ethanol exports? hl Imports Exports Net trade 34

35 The European Union hl Sweden Spain France 35

36 The European Union hl EU total 36

37 EU to become net ethanol importer hl Imports Exports 37

38 Fuel ethanol in Asia/Pacific India: mandate, blending started 2003, country-wide blending seen in Thailand: tax reductions, investments subsidies. China: mandate in some regions. Australia: tax exemption, direct support. 38

39 The 2002 supply/demand balance in Asia/Pacific hl Importers Exporters S Korea Philippines Japan Singapore Taiwan Brazil China S Arabia USA India Thailand S Africa Australia Argentina 39

40 Current suppliers in Asia/Pacific Current suppliers with potential Brazil Thailand India South Africa 40

41 Future suppliers in Asia/Pacific Future suppliers with potential Peru Central America Colombia 41

42 The Mega-Project in Peru Domestic and international effects Introduce E-10 Replace MTBE/lead Fight coca (cocaine) Export to the US under Andean Pact Export to Japan 42

43 Export potential under the Mega-Project litres Exports 43

44 Central America Domestic and international effects Introduce E-10 Replace MTBE/lead Provide alternative outlet for sugar cane Export to the US under CBI Export to Japan (?) 44

45 Colombia Domestic and international effects Introduce E-10 Replace MTBE/lead Exports? 45

46 World Trade in Fuel Ethanol 1990s 46

47 World Trade in Fuel Ethanol in the Future 47

48 Imports By country (very optimistic scenario) in mln litres Other Japan USA Europe 48

49 Imports By country (optimistic scenario) in mln litres Other Japan USA Europe 49

50 Imports vs. beverage and industrial ethanol trade in mln litres Fuel ethanol Other 50

51 Production By country in mln litres EU Australia India Thailand China Colombia Peru Central America Canada USA (fuel) Brazil (fuel) 51

52 Conclusions World production will continue to grow strongly Trade will grow as well but pace will depend on The sugar-alcohol economics New investments in origins Establishment of a viable trading system (futures) Solution of the subsidy issue Overall outlook is very bright 52

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