INTRODUCTION TO THE ETHANOL SUPPLEMENT

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION TO THE Program planning for export market development must take into account the diversity of market development programs, geographic realities, economic conditions, the nature of constraints and opportunities, the capabilities of partners and institutions, and what will work in specific markets and circumstances. At the same time, we look for common elements and dynamics that enable us to apply our experience in one market to our efforts in another. THIS SECTION CONTAINS A. A brief overview of the market, illustrating dynamics of growth and government support of ethanol. B. SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK A brief description of supply/demand basics, country overview, trade and market share issues and policy issues. C. U.S. EXPORTS A brief overview of current U.S. exports to select markets. D. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT Some briefs contain a description of the Council s plans for promoting ethanol in the market. *All information is from either the United States Department of Agriculture, Growth Energy and/or the Council.

2 CHINA ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT Fuel ethanol programs have been in place since the early 2000s. Since 2008, policy dictates that biofuels production cannot compete with crops intended for human or animal consumption. Policy change has led to increased interest in alternative feedstocks, such as cassava and sweet sorghum. Mandatory blend rate for gasoline in specified markets is 10%. In 2014, the mandate fully covered 6 provinces and an additional 30 cities across 5 other provinces. The blend rate ranges between 8% and 12%, depending on production levels. The National Energy Administration oversees biofuels regulations and research. Public concern about poor air quality in China has put pressure on the government to take steps toward reducing pollution and improving fuel quality. The transportation sector has been identified as a prime source of pollution in urban centers. The biofuels industry is advocating ethanol as a way to reduce pollutants. CHINESE SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Domestic ethanol production was estimated to reach 2.8 million kiloliters (739.7 million gallons) in % growth from This is due to growth in fuel consumption in provinces with blend mandates. Production of ethanol accounts for less than 1% of China s total liquid fuel production. Seven ethanol plants are licensed for fuel ethanol production. Each of these plants has a designated distribution market in provinces where ethanol blending is mandated. The government controls grain ethanol production and has reduced financial support for production. Domestic ethanol is produced from grains (76% from corn and 14% from wheat), but the government has promoted the use of non-food grains, including cassava and sweet sorghum. A 5% temporary import tariff is applied to denatured ethanol. In China, ethanol in gas is marked on pumps as E93/ E97. The number denotes octane rather than volume content. There are now 140 million cars in China. 115 U.S. EXPORTS China imported a 10,500 ton (13,300 kiloliters or 3.5 million gallon) shipment of U.S. ethanol in early The U.S. ethanol was used for a trial to study the economic viability of ethanol imports. The trial proved that imports are feasible, but resulted in government scrutiny as current regulations do not allow the use of imported ethanol for transportation fuel. Future imports would require changes to national energy policies and rules and regulations.

3 COLOMBIA ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT The blend mandate for ethanol in gasoline is set at 8%. The mandate was temporarily increased from 8% to 10% between December 2013 and January 2014 in order to reduce inventories. Blends can vary from between 8% and 10%, with higher blends being produced at major blending facilities. The Ministry of Mining and Energy regulates the blend levels for ethanol and determines the market price for gasoline and diesel. Biofuels consumption in Colombia is entirely dependent on blend mandates. COLOMBIAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK All ethanol is produced from sugar cane. Biofuels production has displaced 48% of sugar exports. Five ethanol production facilities provide fuel ethanol. Total ethanol production was estimated at 390,000 kiloliters ( million gallons) in An additional sugar cane ethanol plant is expected to come online in 2015, adding an additional 12,000 kiloliters (3.17 million gallons). Imports of ethanol represent only 1% of total biofuel consumption, with most imports coming from Ecuador. Fuel ethanol imports totaled 21,000 kiloliters (5.55 million gallons) in 2013 and 10,000 kiloliters (2.64 million gallons) in U.S. EXPORTS In 2013, U.S. ethanol exports jumped 4,270% to 16,700 kiloliters (4.41 million gallons) and continued to grow in early U.S. ethanol landed in Colombia is competitively priced compared to Colombian-produced ethanol and other origins. The growth of U.S. imports led Colombian producers to seek government protection. On April 29, 2014, the Colombian government issued a regulation that restricts ethanol imports. This regulation was enacted despite the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement which provides zero duties for U.S. ethanol. A Colombian port. 116

4 INDIA ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT India approved a National Biofuels Policy in December 2009 that encourages the use of renewable fuels. Proposes to supplement fuel supply with a 20% biofuels mandate, using both ethanol and biodiesel by In November 2012, the Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs recommended a 5% ethanol blend mandate. This mandate has been partially successful in recent years when there is a surplus of sugar production. The policy calls for biofuels to be developed from non-food feedstocks grown on degraded soils or wastelands that are not otherwise suitable for agriculture. Gasoline accounts for only 20% of India s fuel demand; diesel dominates the market at 73% of fuel demand. Combined demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to grow in the next few years as vehicle ownership expands. Growth of transportation and petroleum consumption has a negative effect on air quality in India. INDIAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK India produced 2 million kiloliters ( million gallons) of ethanol in Production is expected to grow to 2.1 million kiloliters ( million gallons) in About 25% of total ethanol production is used for fuel, with the other 75% going to beverage usage, Indian oil producers are expected to procure 550,000 kiloliters (145 million gallons) of fuel ethanol in This represents 2.1% of India s fuel market for Most ethanol is produced from sugarcane molasses. Lower availability of sugarcane and sugarcane molasses as well as higher prices of molasses can lead to disruptions in ethanol supplies. India exports ethanol to Ghana, South Korea, Nigeria, Singapore and Cameroon for fuel, industrial and beverage purposes. The United States, Brazil, South Africa, Bhutan and Pakistan are the major importers of ethanol into India. During an ethanol assessment mission in Southeast Asia, representatives from USGC, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy viewed a sugarcane mill. 117

5 INDONESIA ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT A National Energy Policy formalized the development of biofuels in Indonesia. Progressive mandates call for a 3% mandate by 2015, increasing to 10% in 2020 and 15% in Fuel imports are increasing as fuel consumption outpaces domestic production. The government believes that consumption of domesticallyproduced biofuels can help keep fuel imports at a manageable level, narrow the trade deficit and stabilize the exchange rate. The government wants to accelerate the biofuels mandate programs and set more ambitious targets for biofuel use. INDONESIAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Gasoline demand in Indonesia is expected to grow at a rate of 2.8% between 2014 and Increasing car ownership will sustain gasoline demand growth in the long run. More than 80% of cars on the road are expected to be gasoline-powered. The Indonesian biofuels program was ended in Disagreements over the price formula has resulted in no meaningful consumption of ethanol thus far. A retail station that USGC, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy viewed during their ethanol assessment mission to Southeast Asia in December. 118

6 JAPAN ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT In 2010, the government introduced a policy to introduce 823,723 kiloliters of biofuels (217.6 million gallons) by Currently, ethanol blending is allowed up to a 3% limit; ETBE is blended at 7%. Ethanol is only used in three prefectures where ethanol production facilities are located. Greenhouse gas reduction standards require a 50% reduction in CO 2 emissions over gasoline, and thus only Brazilian ethanol qualifies for use. Japan s national biofuels blend goal is 10% by E-10 vehicles and fuel have been approved in Japan, but the impact of this is small because of limited supplies. Public perception of corn-based ethanol is negative. Domestic ethanol production focuses on using non-food feedstocks. ETBE is preferred over ethanol. ETBE can be produced from domestically produced ethanol, as well as from ethanol imported from Brazil via processing in the United States. It is more costly for Japanese oil distributors to renovate facilities for direct blending than to import ethanol that was processed in the United States. JAPANESE SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Four ethanol production facilities in operation that produced 24,000 kiloliters (6.24 million gallons) in Between 2015 and 2023, gasoline use is expected to decline to 11.5 billion gallons. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT Push for a revision of the greenhouse gas reduction standards in the 2017 New Energy Policy. Examine ethanol versus ETBE in the Japanese market. Educate the Japanese public about the food versus fuel debate. Representatives from the Council, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy traveled to Japan in September to explore the potential for U.S. ethanol in those markets. 119

7 SOUTH KOREA ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT KOREAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Ethanol produced in Korea is used for beverage and industrial purposes, not fuel. No fuel mandate for ethanol. The Korean RFS was announced in July 2013, but only mandates the use of biodiesel. Diesel demand is approximately twice that of gasoline in Korea. Numerous feasibility studies have been carried out to verify the implementation of ethanol use. Initial movement toward a mandate was inspired by a 2005 visit from the president of Brazil. Public perception of corn-based ethanol is negative. Public discussion about future investment in biofuels production technologies is focused on advanced biofuels. MTBE is inexpensive and can be produced domestically. Korean government does not regard MTBE as a hazardous chemical. Ethanol is expensive and must be imported for fuel use. There are no refineries capable of blending ethanol into fuel. MTBE does not require new infrastructure or technology. Fuel companies are resistant to the idea of transitioning to ethanol because of the high costs of installing new infrastructure. Oil companies produce their own MTBE and switching to ethanol would cut into their profit margins. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT Promote biofuels in Korea. Representatives from the Council, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy traveled to Korea in September to explore the potential for U.S. ethanol in those markets. 120

8 MEXICO ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT Does not have a biofuels mandate. The government passed a law aimed to develop the ethanol industry and support the domestic sugar industry. Legislation resulted in two public tenders in 2009 and 2011 by Pemex and the Mexican Department of Energy to source ethanol, but ethanol could not be supplied by domestic bidders at a price that could compete with MTBE, and the tenders failed. In December 2013, Mexico enacted a bill to open up the energy sector to competition. Under the reforms, Pemex will need to be profitable and able to compete with domestic and international competitors. In September 2014, it was announced that Pemex would start a bidding process for purchasing fuel ethanol made from sugarcane and sorghum. Use of fuel ethanol in Mexico is non-existent. Ethanol imported from the U.S. is used for industrial purposes. Environmental impacts of petroleum and MTBE are not considered to be concerns. Use of ethanol would be entirely driven by economics. In order to implement a biofuels mandate, ethanol would need to be more cost-effective. It was announced that an ethanol gas station would be opening in June of Two more stations are planned. The ethanol is reportedly to be made from Mexican sugarcane. MEXICAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Mexico consumed 13.4 billion gallons of gasoline in 2013, with 45% of that supply coming as finished gasoline from the United States. Ethanol promotion efforts have been focused on developing local industry. There is no commercially-produced ethanol. High domestic sugar prices prevent domestically-produced ethanol from being competitive. The Council gains insights into Mexico s ethanol market from SAGARPA s Office of Natural Fibers and Biofuels Office Director Jesús Arroyo and his staff. 121

9 PERU ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT Peru has a 7.8% blend mandate for ethanol in gasoline. Peru has two modern ethanol production facilities that use sugarcane as a feedstock. Increasing the blend mandate from 7.8% to 10% or higher would likely be met with opposition from gasoline producers. Gasoline is refined to reach very high octane levels prior to adding ethanol; the same octane levels could be reached at a lower cost if ethanol were blended. PERUVIAN SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Gasoline demand has suffered due to competition. Demand for LNG and LPG accounted for 40% of total fuel use in Taxis and buses are among the vehicles that have switched from gasoline to LNG and LPG. U.S. EXPORTS Imports make up a significant percentage of ethanol consumption. Domestically-produced sugar cane ethanol can be exported to the European Union at a profit. Approximately 90% of total imports to Peru came from the United States in Peru assesses a 6% import duty and a 20% excise tax on imported ethanol. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT Work to maintain U.S. market share. Look for opportunities to influence policy to increase the mandate. A joint team representing the Council, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy visited Peru in November to assess the potential for U.S. ethanol exports to that country. 122

10 PHILIPPINES ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT Has an ethanol mandate in place. Blend rates started at 5% in 2009 and increased to 10% in August Blend rates are expected to increase to 20% by 2020 and remain at this level until Due to the 10% ethanol blend mandate, MTBE has been banned in the Philippines. Very little public pressure to repeal the mandate or replace ethanol. PHILIPPINE SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Ethanol is currently produced by four plants, with up to three more coming online in the coming years. Domestic production is not sufficient to fill the mandate. Low productivity of the local sugarcane industry create inefficiencies in ethanol production. Domestically produced ethanol is expensive, at about twice the cost of ethanol produced in the United States. In order to comply with the mandate, it is estimated that the Philippines would need to build 15 more ethanol plants by The Department of Energy has expressed an interest in learning more about alternative feedstocks for biofuels production. Gasoline blenders are required to fill the mandate with domestically-produced ethanol before using import permits to fill deficits. This makes compliance with the mandate difficult. This prevents blenders from taking advantage of the forward curve of ethanol. U.S. EXPORTS The Philippines imported 74,600 kiloliters (19.7 million gallons) of ethanol from the United States in 2013, a 980% growth from U.S. imports make up the largest percentage of imports, with 25% market share. Brazil and Thailand are responsible for 15% and 11% of imports respectively. Above: In November, the Council led a delegation of industry leaders representing the USDA, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy to the Philippines to assess factors contributing to the large exports of U.S. ethanol to Southeast Asia and evaluate future opportunities for growth. Left: The Philippines represents one of the few markets in the world that is truly short on ethanol. Last year, the country imported 194 million liters (51 million gallons) of U.S. ethanol. 123 STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. ENGAGEMENT Evaluate ways to further increase U.S. market share by building confidence in the cost savings and reliability of U.S. ethanol. Work with the Philippines Department of Energy on research into alternative feedstocks for ethanol production, via technology exchange and promotion of sweet sorghum as a feedstock.

11 VIETNAM ETHANOL MARKET SNAPSHOT Gas stations began distributing E-5 the week of Dec. 1, Ethanol was produced from cassava. More cities were also expected to begin selling E-5 in December. E-5 was reported to be selling at the same price as non-ethanol gasoline. The cities of Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Can Tho, Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Quang have a total demand of up to half a million metric tons of ethanol when using an E-5 blend. An E-5 policy is expected to be implemented nationwide in The policy was delayed a year due to poor consumer uptake and challenges with supplies. SUPPLY/DEMAND AND OUTLOOK Current installed ethanol production is approximately 535,000 kiloliters ( million gallons). This production could supply the nationwide E-5 mandate. In June 2014, ethanol producers were on the verge of bankruptcy. Only about 20% of production was used to fulfil the 5% mandate, with remaining stocks exported at a loss. High feedstock prices resulted from low cassava yields and caused plants to report negative margins. A bioenergy plant that USGC, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy representatives visited during their ethanol assessment mission in Southeast Asia. 124