BIOFUELS. Market situation. Projection highlights

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "BIOFUELS. Market situation. Projection highlights"

Transcription

1 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS BIOFUELS Market situation Cereals, oilseeds and vegetable oil prices in 2014 continued their decrease in nominal terms. This, coupled with the strong decline in crude oil prices in the second half of the year, led to lower world ethanol 3 and biodiesel 4 prices in a context of ample supply for both products. The policy environment around biofuels remained uncertain, with the absence of a final rulemaking by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for policies in 2014 and 2015, and by the fact that the European Union s 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies adopted in October 2014 that did not define clear targets for biofuels beyond The evolution of the crude oil price and various domestic policy signals provided incentives to the Brazilian ethanol industry. Projection highlights This Outlook assumes that ethanol use in the United States will be limited by the 10% ethanol blend wall 5 and that cellulosic ethanol will not be available on a large scale until the last years of the projection period. For the European Union, the fulfilment percentage of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 6 target coming from biofuels expressed in energy share is assumed to reach 7% by In Brazil, the Outlook assumes that Brazilian retail prices of petrol over the first part of the next decade will be kept slightly above international prices. 8 Elsewhere in the world, biofuel sectors in general continue to be driven by a mix of price trends and effective policy support. Proposed production and consumption targets vary considerably across countries leading to a wide range of growth prospects for individual countries. Decreases in crude oil and biofuel feedstock prices should lead to a strong decline in ethanol and biodiesel prices at the beginning of the projection period. Subsequently, both ethanol and biodiesel prices are expected to recover in nominal terms close to their 2014 levels (Figure 3.7). Global ethanol and biodiesel production are both expected to expand to reach, respectively, almost and 39 billion litres (Bln L) by Food-crop based feedstocks are expected to continue to dominate ethanol and biodiesel production over the coming decade as indicated by the lack of investment in research and development (R&D) for advanced biofuels, the size of the required investments and the lack of policies visibility for operators. Most of the additional ethanol production is expected to take place in Brazil. Incentives based on national biofuel policies will continue to influence biodiesel production patterns. Indonesia will surpass the United States and Brazil in the latter years of the outlook period to become the second largest biodiesel producer behind the EU. Ethanol use in the United States will be limited by the ethanol blend wall and by declining gasoline use in the latter years of the projection period. In Brazil, ethanol use expansion is linked to the high mandatory anhydrous ethanol blending requirement and to a differential taxation system that allows hydrous ethanol to compete with gasohol at least in some states. In the European Union, biodiesel use is projected to increase to its highest level in 2019 when the RED target is assumed to be met. 126

2 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS Ethanol and biodiesel trade in the next ten years is not expected to expand. The bilateral ethanol trade that occurred between Brazil and the United States is not expected to take place as the need for sugarcane based ethanol to fill the US advanced mandate should remain limited. Argentina and Indonesia continue to dominate biodiesel exports, the United States and EU are the only significant importers. The future evolution of the political will to support biofuel blending in transportation fuel represents the key uncertainty to the sector. This decision process will be shaped mainly by macroeconomic developments in key countries, relative prices of feedstocks and fossil fuels, prevailing views on environmental benefits of biofuels and the global food security situation. Figure 3.7. Evolution of biofuel world prices Expressed in nominal terms (left panel) and in real terms (right panel) Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel USD/hl USD/hl Note: Ethanol: wholesale price, US, Omaha; Biodiesel: Producer price, Germany, net of biodiesel tariff and energy tax. Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture Statistics (database), The expanded biofuels chapter is available at 127

3 Main assumptions Policies targeting the biofuels sector have been introduced in several countries since 2005 to achieve improvements in energy security, to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, to enhance export opportunities for high value added products as well as sometimes to foster rural development. They include support measures and also targets or mandates for biofuel use. In the United States, the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 defined the Renewable Fuel Standard programme known as RFS2. 1 Under this programme, EISA established four quantitative annual mandates up to 2022: the total and advanced mandates that require fuels to achieve respectively at least a 20% and a 50% GHG reduction as well as the biodiesel and the cellulosic mandates that are nested within the advanced mandate. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provided on an annual basis, the minimum quantities for each of the four classes of biofuels required. In November 2013 the EPA made a proposal 2 to reduce the total, the advanced and the cellulosic mandates for This proposal was based on the fact that the production capacity for cellulosic ethanol has lagged well behind the mandated quantities specified in EISA and that the ethanol blend wall 3 issue represents a circumstance that warrants a reduction in the mandated volumes under the inadequate domestic supply waiver provision in the RFS2. The proposal created controversy throughout the biofuel industry resulting in the final EPA rulemaking on 2014 and 2015 mandates still not being issued. Given the lower crude oil price levels assumed in the projection and the current difficulties encountered in supplying E15 to US consumers, it is assumed that the amount of ethanol being consumed in low blend mixes in the United States will not exceed the blend wall level of 10% over the next decade. Due to decreasing gasoline use in the United States over the projection period, limitations in the expansion of domestic ethanol use related to the blend wall issue and limited development of the flex-fuel vehicle fleet in a context of lower crude oil prices, the Outlook assumes the total mandate should be almost 60% lower than what is specified in RFS2 for The Outlook assumes that by 2024 only 2% of the cellulosic mandate specified by EISA in 2007 will be implemented because of low investments due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of biofuel policies and the low crude oil prices and that the difference between the EISA cellulosic mandate and the assumed mandate will be entirely waived. The biodiesel mandate should remain constant. So, the need for sugarcane based ethanol imports to fill the advanced gap 4 is expected to be decreasing and limited over the outlook period. The biodiesel blender tax credit is not expected to be reinstated. In the European Union, the 2009 RED 5 states that renewable fuels (including nonliquids) should increase to 10% of total transport fuel use by 2020 on an energy equivalent basis. In October 2014, the European Council adopted the 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies 6 with targets of a 40% cut in GHG emissions by 2030 when compared to 1990 and of 27% renewable energy by The framework does not propose concrete targets for the transport sector after The European Council is expected to confirm in the course of 2015 a European Parliament s vote that reduces the amount of first generation biofuels that can be counted towards the renewable energy targets from 10% to 7% and that forces biofuels suppliers to report the estimated levels of emissions caused by Indirect Land-Use Change (ILUC). This should lower uncertainties concerning the use of first and second generation biofuels over the first part of the projection period in the European Union. This Outlook assumes a continuation of actual mandates and tax reductions by EU countries. Similar to what is happening in the United States, second-generation biofuels are not expected to take-off in the European Union. When accounting for the fact that each unit of second generation biofuel consumed, including those produced from used cooking oil, counts double for the purpose of the Directive, the projection assumes that the portion coming from biofuels expressed in energy share will reach 7% by It is assumed that additional progress towards the RED target should be related to the development of other energy sources for transportation including electric cars.

4 Prices In Brazil, flex-fuel vehicles can either run on gasohol a mixture of gasoline and anhydrous ethanol or on E100 (hydrous ethanol). The anhydrous ethanol mandatory blending requirement for gasohol is expected to remain at 27% 7 over the outlook period. Over the past several years, the Brazilian government through Petrobras 8 kept domestic retail prices of petrol significantly below international prices in an attempt to temper inflation. Given the strong recent decrease of international crude oil prices and the need for Petrobras to recover financially, Brazilian petrol retail prices are expected to be slightly above international prices over the first part of the next decade 9. This coupled with differentiated taxation between hydrous ethanol and gasohol as well as the increased blending requirement for anhydrous ethanol should help the Brazilian ethanol industry in the domestic market. However international opportunities will remain limited due to biofuel policy uncertainties. In a number of emerging economies, ambitious biofuel production targets had been envisaged in recent years. Many of them are reassessed in light of the actual development in their domestic sectors and also against possible export opportunities in the future. The Outlook foresees a slower growth for most of the targets compared to recent years, especially in the ethanol sector. Outside of the United States, European Union and Argentina, biodiesel production is heavily dependent on policies in palm oil producing countries, especially Indonesia. Its policies support continued strong growth of its biodiesel sector in order to utilise domestic palm oil resources to replace imported diesel fuel. Increasing blending of biodiesel use has been made mandatory in transport fuel as well as for diesel used in power plants. In conjunction with the drop in crude oil prices, the world ethanol price is projected to decrease from USD 59.7/hl in 2014 to USD 51.7/hl in It should then increase over the projection period to reach USD 60.3/hl by 2024 (Figure 3.7). Expressed in real terms, the world ethanol price is expected to be 17% lower in 2024 than its 2014 value. Several factors are expected to influence the level of ethanol prices. Price controls in Brazil will keep domestic gasoline prices, and thus also ethanol prices, above international levels at least in the short run making exports to the European Union unattractive to Brazilian producers. The world ethanol price in the latter years of the projection period is expected to remain relatively flat. Modest import demand growth from a variety of countries can be supplied by both the United States and Brazil without the need for higher prices. Figure Share of feedstocks used for biofuel production Ethanol Biodiesel Other Biomass Jatropha Vegetable oils Other Ligno-cellulosic biomass Molasses Wheat Sugar crops Coarse grains % Note: Sugar crops include ethanol produced from sugar cane as well as sugar beets in the European Union. Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database),

5 Production World biodiesel prices expressed in real terms are expected to decrease by 20% over the outlook period reflecting the projected evolution of the vegetable oil prices. Demand for biodiesel should be mostly driven by policies in place and not by market forces. Biodiesel trade is not expected to grow. Coarse grains and sugarcane will remain the dominant ethanol feedstock, while vegetable oil continues as the feedstock of choice in biodiesel production (Figure 3.7.2). Ligno-cellulosic biomass based ethanol is projected to only account for about 2% of world ethanol production by Biofuel production is expected to consume 10.5% and 13% of global coarse grains and vegetable oil production respectively in By 2024, 25% of global sugarcane production is used to produce ethanol, up from 21% in This increase is related to sustained domestic ethanol demand and to the relatively better profitability of the Brazilian ethanol industry compared to the domestic sugar industry 10. Global ethanol production is projected to increase during the outlook period from about 114 Bln L in 2014 to nearly Bln L by 2024 (Figure 3.7.3). Two-thirds of this increase is expected to originate from Brazil mostly to fill domestic demand. The two major ethanol producers by far remain the United States and Brazil followed by the European Union and the People s Republic of China (Figure 3.7.4). In the United States, the projected total biofuel production is driven by the assumptions on how the EPA will deal with the total, advanced, biodiesel and cellulosic mandates in the coming decade 11. Both the economic recovery and low crude oil prices lead to increasing gasoline use in the United States in 2015 and The total amount of ethanol blended in regular cars should thus be slightly above the 2014 level in both years and the conventional gap 12 will reach its maximum in 2016 (52.4 Bln L) to afterwards decrease to 50 Bln L by The US ethanol supply growth over the remaining period will mostly arise from ligno-cellulosic biomass based ethanol, where growth is assumed to happen from 2020 onwards to reach 1.3 Bln L by Altogether, ethanol production in the United States is projected to modestly increase over the next ten years from 57.2 Bln L in 2014 to 56.7 Bln L by Figure Development of the world ethanol market World ethanol production World ethanol trade bln L Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database),

6 Figure Regional distributions of world ethanol production and use in 2024 China 7% Thailand 2% India 2% Production Other 9% Thailand 2% India 2% Other 11% Use European Union 7% United States 42% European Union 8% China 7% United States 41% Brazil 31% Brazil 29% Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), Ethanol markets in Brazil are driven by increasing domestic demand for anhydrous ethanol due to the 27% blending requirement in gasohol, and the demand for hydrous ethanol by the flex-fuel vehicles fleet because of a differential taxation system that slightly favours ethanol in relation to gasohol in some states. Brazilian ethanol production is projected to increase by 50% from 28 Bln L in 2014 to 42.5 Bln L in In the European Union, ethanol production for fuel (mainly from wheat, coarse grains and sugar beet) is projected to reach a maximum of almost 10 Bln L in 2019 when the RED target is assumed to be met and then to decrease to 9.5 Bln L by 2024 because of decreasing gasoline and thus ethanol use. Beginning in 2017, when the new sugar regime enters into force, it is expected that the production of ethanol from sugar beets will be less profitable than sugar production given the expected increase in the price of sugar beets. Ligno-cellulosic biomass based ethanol should remain marginal over the outlook period. Apart from Brazil, most countries in the developing world slow their production growth compared to their recent fast development and expand production levels only modestly in the coming decade. India remains a significant producer of ethanol focussing on the domestic fuel and non-fuel markets, while Thailand is poised to increase its production to meet growing regional demand in the second half of the projection period. Global biodiesel production is expected to reach 39 Bln L by 2024 corresponding to a 27% increase from 2014 (Figure 3.7.5). The European Union is expected to be by far the major producer of biodiesel (Figure 3.7.6). Other significant players are Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Policy rather than market forces will continue to influence production patterns in almost all countries. In the European Union, biodiesel production is projected to follow a similar path as ethanol production and to reach its maximum in 2020 with 13.6 Bln L when the RED target is met. By 2024, production is expected to decline to 13.1 Bln L due to lower demand for both biodiesel and diesel. The United States is expected to lose its position as the second largest biodiesel producer in the next ten years. In fact, the end of the biodiesel blenders tax credit means that domestic biodiesel production will remain close to but not surpass the biodiesel mandate level of 4.8 Bln L.

7 Figure Development of the world biodiesel market bln L World biodiesel production World biodiesel trade Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), Figure Regional distributions of world biodiesel production and use in 2024 Production Use Thailand 3% Argentina 7% Indonesia 18% Other 13% United States 12% European Union 34% Brazil 13% Thailand 3% Argentina 4% Indonesia 15% Other 13% United States 17% European Union 35% Brazil 13% Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), Brazil is expected to become the third largest biodiesel producer over the projection period to meet increasing biodiesel demand boosted by the domestic mandate. The 11% increase in biodiesel production expected for Argentina should satisfy both domestic and international demand. Biodiesel production in Indonesia is projected to continue strongly to satisfy the increasing domestic blending requirements and to maintain a significant export level. The currently installed production capacity of around 8 Bln L is already sufficient to support the estimated production level of 6.8 Bln L by Such a production level

8 Use would consume about 14% of the domestically produced palm oil and constitute 35% of the domestic use in Indonesia by end of the projection period. Production in Malaysia continues to expand as well, but levels of about 0.6 Bln L because of a small domestic market and only limited export opportunities for palm oil based biodiesel. Thailand has grown its biodiesel sector to about 1 Bln L in recent years, but is expected to remain at about this level as no growth in the domestic demand is foreseen. Colombia, another emerging biodiesel producer, may reach 1 Bln L by 2024, all for domestic consumption as well. Global ethanol use is projected to increase by 21 Bln L during the outlook period. Ethanol use in Brazil expands by 11.5 Bln L representing 55% of the global increase. This expansion is linked to the mandatory 27% anhydrous ethanol blending requirement in gasohol, to the development of the flex-fuel industry and to a differential taxation system that allows hydrous ethanol to compete with gasohol at least in some Brazilian states. Import demand for Brazilian ethanol should be relatively limited in the early years of the projection period, as domestic ethanol prices are expected to move in line with domestic gasoline prices and thus to be slightly above international prices. Given the blend wall issue and the assumed levels of the advanced, cellulosic and biodiesel mandates in the United States, it is assumed that the Brazilian sugarcane based ethanol import demand from the United States to fulfil the advanced biofuel mandate will be limited over the projection period. Ethanol use in the United States is limited by the blend wall and the declining petrol use prospects from 2017 to the end of the projection period. The blend wall is expected to remain at 10% through the projection period. A limited development of the flex-fuel car sector is assumed given the low crude oil prices assumptions. In this context, ethanol use is expected to remain close to 55 Bln L leaving the United States in a net export position throughout the projection period. In the European Union, ethanol fuel use is expected to expand by 3.4 Bln L over the projection period and to amount to an average volume share of 7.8% in petrol types for transport fuels by In Argentina, ethanol use is also expected to expand to 0.5 Bln L due to a domestic mandate. Ethanol use in developing countries is divided into fuel and other uses, with non-fuel use often taking the largest share. Biofuel consumption is driven by blending targets or mandates. A number of emerging economies are using ethanol in low level blends and plan to increase the blending ratios over the next decade. Examples include India, Thailand, Colombia, Philippines, Viet Nam, and Nigeria. Biodiesel use is expected to increase by 8.3 Bln L. In the European Union, biodiesel use is projected to increase from 12.7 Bln L in 2014 to its highest level of almost 14.8 Bln L in 2020 when the RED target is assumed to be met. Over the rest of the outlook period, biodiesel use is expected to decrease to 13.4 Bln L in 2024 because of the declining diesel use prospects, increased energy efficiency and the assumed continuation of the double counting rules under RED. The lower volume represents an average share of biodiesel in diesel type fuels of 6.4%. Biodiesel use in Indonesia is projected to increase steadily from about 2 Bln L in to 5.6 Bln L in About 4.5 Bln L of this will be consumed as transport fuel and the remaining 1.1 Bln L will be used by the energy sector. On average, the share of biodiesel in all diesel fuel is estimated to grow by about 12% over ten years. Such a substitution into biofuel will add value to the domestically produced palm oil, reduce GHG emissions and provide a significant reduction of diesel imports to improve the current accounts of Indonesia. In the United States, the mandate for biodiesel is assumed to stay constant over the projection period at 4.8 Bln L. The end of the biodiesel blenders tax credit in 2014 implies a drop in US biodiesel use from 6.7 Bln L in 2014 to 5.5 Bln L in Given a decreasing

9 biodiesel to diesel consumer price ratio from 2017 onwards and the ethanol blend wall, US biodiesel consumption is projected to reach 6.6 Bln L by 2024 helping fulfil the advanced and total mandates. 13 Biodiesel should therefore capture a share of the other advanced gap, lowering the need to import sugarcane based ethanol. In a context of declining diesel consumption, biodiesel blending in diesel type fuels is expected to be 2.6% in Biodiesel use in Brazil is expected to rise up to 5 Bln L by 2024, given a 7% domestic biodiesel blending requirement and a steady expected demand for diesel. In Argentina, the domestic mandate implies biodiesel use will reach more than 1.4 Bln L in 2024 up by a fourth over the projection period. Biodiesel blending requirements are in effect in several developing countries. Countries that are currently using notable amounts of biodiesel are India, Colombia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan and Viet Nam. Most countries are starting form very low levels of consumption and will remain at 1% 3% blending, but a few countries are expected to reach about 10% blending by the end of the outlook period. Trade Global ethanol trade is set to remain stable over the outlook period. The United States is expected to remain a net exporter with about 2 Bln L of maize based ethanol exported by 2024 and also a modest importer. The need for sugarcane based ethanol imports to fill the advanced gap is expected to be limited and decreasing over the outlook period, the stable advanced mandate being filled by biodiesel and from 2020 by a modest development of cellulosic ethanol. US ethanol exports are not expected to increase much over the projection period as import demand is limited. The bilateral trade that happened in the past few years between Brazil and the United States is not projected to occur over the next ten years. In the early years of the projection period, Brazilian exports are expected to remain low when compared to the recent past as the Brazilian ethanol industry will mostly fill sustained domestic demand and domestic ethanol prices should be slightly above international ones. Brazilian ethanol imports will remain limited due to logistical issues. In the second half of the projection period, Brazilian ethanol and gasoline prices are expected to move in line with international ones. Brazil is thus expected to expand modestly sugarcane based ethanol exports reaching about 3.5 Bln L by Altogether, developing countries are net exporters of ethanol. Argentina is expected to develop its ethanol industry and to export 0.6 Bln L by The European Union, Japan and Canada are the major ethanol importers. Their combined import needs expand by 1.1 Bln L over the projection period. In the EU, 14% of ethanol use will be imported towards the end of the projection period. Biodiesel trade is projected to remain stable over the next ten years, with Argentina remaining the major exporter followed by Indonesia. The export growth potential of both countries is expected to be limited due to domestic biodiesel targets and mandates as well as sustainability requirements in the European Union. With the RED target defined in 2020, net import demand in the European Union is expected to decrease to about 0.3 Bln L by The United States is expected to be a net importer of biodiesel over the projection period with the biodiesel tax credit assumed not to be reinstated and the increase in domestic biodiesel use to meet the total and advanced mandates. Argentina is expected to supply most of the imports given the EPA s decision in early 2015 to allow Argentinean biodiesel producers to fulfil the record keeping requirements of the RFS2. Trade of palm oil based biodiesel remains an important export commodity for Indonesia. Volumes have dropped significantly from their peak in 2012, but are expected to rebound in 2015 to about 1.1 Bln L and to remain stable during the outlook period. Malaysia also exports about 0.3 Bln L throughout the period, but is expected to keep its focus on the export of palm oil. Tanzania and Mozambique, have developed small, export oriented sectors, they are projected to maintain these activities at about the current

10 levels. India has started to import small quantities of biodiesel, but no significant expansion is expected Main issues and uncertainties The development of biofuel markets in the recent past has been strongly related to biofuel policy packages in place, the macroeconomic environment and the level of crude oil prices. This Outlook differs from previous editions by the assumption of lower energy prices which do not favour short- to medium-term development of first-generation biofuels and investment in research and development (R&D) for advanced biofuels produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass, waste or non-food feedstock. Enabling higher levels of energy security was at the centre of the initial setup of biofuel policies. With lower crude oil prices and major biofuel producing countries such as Brazil and the United States becoming less dependent on imported fossil fuels, questions related to energy security might get lower priority. A stochastic scenario on the effect of higher crude oil prices is presented in Chapter 1. A major uncertainty is the evolution of biofuel policies around the world. It is likely that those policies will face downward revisions in the future. This was indicated by the November 2013 EPA proposal to lower the biofuels mandates in the United States and by the recent adoption of the 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies with no concrete proposals for biofuels use in the European Union beyond However the biofuels industries in major producing countries might counterbalance this trend at least in the short term. This is evident in Brazil where recent policy decisions in terms of taxation and blending requirements were rather favourable to the ethanol and sugar industries and in the United States with the difficulties for the EPA to announce mandates levels for 2014 and The uncertainties regarding the future of biofuel policies in key countries might act as an impediment to new investment decisions in R&D for advanced biofuels. The developments for the biofuel markets over the next ten years are conditional on the assumption that most of the biofuels to be produced in the next decade will be based on agricultural feedstock. Biofuel production is thus likely to have direct or indirect effects on the environment and on land use in the medium term; which in turn should be taken into account when biofuel policies are going to be revised. Notes The blend wall term refers to short run technical constraints that act as an impediment to increased ethanol use. Even if the maximum blend of ethanol for conventional petrol vehicles is set in the United States at 15% for vehicles produced in 2001 or later the dispensing of E15 and E85 is still not widespread. E15 and E85 refer to gasohol with respectively 15%and 85% volume of ethanol blended into petrol. E10 is still the most commonly available gasohol in the United States. 4. The advanced gap corresponds to the difference between the advanced mandate, and the biodiesel and cellulosic mandates. It corresponds to fuels being able to achieve a 50% greenhouse gas reduction This 27% blending requirement was approved by the Brazilian government in March The former level was 25%

11 8. Petrobras is a semi-public Brazilian multinational energy corporation. 9. A description of the Brazilian ethanol industry and its link with the level of gasoline prices is provided in Chapter More details are provided in Chapter Those assumptions have been described in the previous section. 12. The conventional gap is the difference between the total and advanced mandates as defined by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). It is often seen as an implied maize based ethanol mandate. The assumed mandate levels are based on the blend wall limit and on the evolution of gasoline use in the United States. 13. Biodiesel like sugarcane based ethanol qualifies for the advanced mandate. It is important to note that a unit of biodiesel counts for 1.5 units of advanced mandate.

12 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.8. Biofuel projections: Ethanol PRODUCTION (mln L) est Growth DOMESTIC USE (%) 1 (mln L) est Growth (%) 1 FUEL USE (mln L) Growth (%) 1 SHARE IN GASOLINE TYPE FUEL USE (%) NET TRADE (mln L) 2.. Not available Note: est: Data for 2014 are estimated. 1. Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). 2. For total net trade, sum of all positive net trade positions. Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture Statistics (database). doi: est Energy share est Volume share est NORTH AMERICA Canada United States of which second generation EUROPE European Union of which second generation OCEANIA DEVELOPED Australia OTHER DEVELOPED Japan South Africa SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Mozambique Tanzania LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru ASIA AND PACIFIC China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Turkey Viet Nam TOTAL est

13 ANNEX: COMMODITY SNAPSHOT TABLES Table 3.A1.9. Biofuel projections: Biodiesel PRODUCTION (mln L) Growth (%) 1 DOMESTIC USE (mln L) est est Growth (%) 1 SHARE IN DIESEL TYPE FUEL USE (%) NET TRADE (mln L) Energy share est Volume share est est NORTH AMERICA Canada United States EUROPE European Union of which second generation OCEANIA DEVELOPED Australia OTHER DEVELOPED South Africa SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Mozambique Tanzania LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Argentina Brazil Colombia Peru ASIA AND PACIFIC India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Turkey Viet Nam TOTAL Not available Note: est: Data for 2014 are estimated. 1. Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). 2. For total net trade, sum of all positive net trade positions. Source: OECD/FAO (2015), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, OECD Agriculture Statistics (database). doi:

14 From: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 Access the complete publication at: Please cite this chapter as: OECD/FAO (2015), Biofuels, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director-General of FAO. The views expressed and conclusions reached in this report do not necessarily correspond to those of the governments of OECD member countries, or the governments of the FAO member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at or the Centre français d exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at

OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS

OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS Market situation Global oilseeds production in the 214 marketing year (see glossary for a definition of marketing year) reached record levels for the

More information

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012. Chapter 3. Biofuels

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012. Chapter 3. Biofuels OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012 Chapter 3 Biofuels 87 Biofuels were added to the Outlook in 2008 as an emerging sector that would increasingly affect agricultural markets. This has certainly

More information

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011 GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011 Presentation Overview Global Outlook Biofuels Mandates in 2010 Total

More information

DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS

DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS Market situation International prices of all dairy products continued to decline from their 2013 peak, in particular for skim milk powder (SMP) and whole

More information

Impacts of the EU biofuel policy on agricultural markets and land use

Impacts of the EU biofuel policy on agricultural markets and land use Impacts of the EU biofuel policy on agricultural markets and land use Modelling assessment with AGLINK-COSIMO (2012 version) Sophie Hélaine Robert M barek Hubertus Gay 2 0 1 3 Report EUR 26107 EN European

More information

Liquid Biofuels for Transport

Liquid Biofuels for Transport page 1/11 Scientific Facts on Liquid Biofuels for Transport Prospects, risks and opportunities Source document: FAO (2008) Summary & Details: GreenFacts Context - Serious questions are being raised about

More information

FACT SHEET: BIOFUELS. Solving our climate and oil woes? By Alexandra Morel University of Oxford

FACT SHEET: BIOFUELS. Solving our climate and oil woes? By Alexandra Morel University of Oxford FACT SHEET: BIOFUELS Solving our climate and oil woes? By Alexandra Morel University of Oxford 1 The Issue The live performance sector has shown a particular interest in biofuels as offering a partial

More information

World Fuel Ethanol. Analysis and Outlook. Prepared for METI. Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht

World Fuel Ethanol. Analysis and Outlook. Prepared for METI. Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht Analysis and Outlook Prepared for METI By Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht 1 Some basic concepts By production route: Fermentation vs. Synthetic By composition: Anhydrous vs. Hydrous By end-use: Beverage,

More information

Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud homme. International Fertilizer Industry Association

Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud homme. International Fertilizer Industry Association A/07/06 January 2007 32 nd IFA Enlarged Council Meeting Buenos Aires, Argentina 5-7 December 2006 World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand, Global Fertilizer Supply and Trade 2006 2007 Summary Report Patrick

More information

SUGAR. Market situation. Projection highlights

SUGAR. Market situation. Projection highlights 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS SUGAR Market situation International sugar prices fell by more than 30% in 2014. The prospect of a global sugar production deficit has led to a price increase at the start of the

More information

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012 Chapter 5 Oilseeds and Oilseed Products 133 5. OILSEEDS

More information

TOWARDS A SADC FUEL ETHANOL MARKET FROM SUGARCANE: REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS AND A MODEL FOR REGIONAL SECTORAL INTEGRATION. Wolfe Braude Emet Consulting

TOWARDS A SADC FUEL ETHANOL MARKET FROM SUGARCANE: REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS AND A MODEL FOR REGIONAL SECTORAL INTEGRATION. Wolfe Braude Emet Consulting TOWARDS A SADC FUEL ETHANOL MARKET FROM SUGARCANE: REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS AND A MODEL FOR REGIONAL SECTORAL INTEGRATION Wolfe Braude Emet Consulting Presentation overview What s happening globally with

More information

INTRODUCTION TO THE ETHANOL SUPPLEMENT

INTRODUCTION TO THE ETHANOL SUPPLEMENT INTRODUCTION TO THE Program planning for export market development must take into account the diversity of market development programs, geographic realities, economic conditions, the nature of constraints

More information

II. Merchandise trade

II. Merchandise trade II. Merchandise trade World merchandise trade grew by 2 per cent in volume terms in 2012 against a backdrop of weak global demand and declining prices. This is significantly less than the 5 per cent increase

More information

II. Merchandise trade

II. Merchandise trade II. Merchandise trade Merchandise trade increased by 5 per cent in volume in 211. The strongest momentum was achieved by trade in manufactured goods, which grew by.5 per cent. Key developments in 211:

More information

Wheat Import Projections Towards 2050. Chad Weigand Market Analyst

Wheat Import Projections Towards 2050. Chad Weigand Market Analyst Wheat Import Projections Towards 2050 Chad Weigand Market Analyst January 2011 Wheat Import Projections Towards 2050 Analysis Prepared by Chad Weigand, Market Analyst January 2011 Purpose The United Nations

More information

Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut

Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut OECD/IEA 214 World biofuels produc@on end of rapid expansion? mb/d billion litres/yr 2.5 14 2. 12 1 1.5 8 1. 6.5 4 2. 21 23

More information

The European Renewable Energy Directive and international Trade. Laurent Javaudin Delegation of the European Commission to the U.S.

The European Renewable Energy Directive and international Trade. Laurent Javaudin Delegation of the European Commission to the U.S. The European Renewable Energy Directive and international Trade Laurent Javaudin Delegation of the European Commission to the U.S. The European Union 27 Member States 490 million people 2 Outline The Present:

More information

Overview of Sugar Policies and. Market Outlook

Overview of Sugar Policies and. Market Outlook Overview of Sugar Policies and Introduction Market Outlook Agricultural production to expand by 60% to meet food demand of the world population of 9 billion by 2050 World sugar trade > USD 24 billion -

More information

SUGARCANE POTENTIAL Food & Energy. 30 October 2013

SUGARCANE POTENTIAL Food & Energy. 30 October 2013 SUGARCANE POTENTIAL Food & Energy 30 October 2013 SA Sugar Industry economic contribution SA sugarcane industry is Diverse agriculture, sugars (raw, refined, specialised), syrups and range of by-products

More information

Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario

Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook CEDIGAZ February 215 Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario 4 3 %/year 199-213 213-235 6 Main consuming markets - %/year (213-235)

More information

Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2014 2015

Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2014 2015 A/14/140b November 2014 IFA Strategic Forum Marrakech (Morocco), 19-20 November 2014 Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2014 2015 Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud homme International Fertilizer Industry Association

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

More information

Land - a scarce resource. Report on the interaction between food, animal feed and bioenergy. February 2008 Summary

Land - a scarce resource. Report on the interaction between food, animal feed and bioenergy. February 2008 Summary Danish Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Food Feed Bioenergy Nature Forest Urban areas Other non-food Recreational areas Land - a scarce resource Report on the interaction between food, animal

More information

AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE?

AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE? GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY PROJECT AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE? Dr. Rodolfo Quintero-Ramírez March 24 th, 2010 Sao Paulo, Brazil ? FOOD ANIMAL FEED AGRICULTURE BIOENERGY BIOPRODUCTS

More information

Dominican Republic. Qualifying conditions. Benefit calculation. Defined benefit. Targeted. Key indicators. Dominican Republic: Pension system 2010

Dominican Republic. Qualifying conditions. Benefit calculation. Defined benefit. Targeted. Key indicators. Dominican Republic: Pension system 2010 Dominican Republic Dominican Republic: Pension system 21 The pension system is a contributory scheme, based on individual capitalisation accounts. All workers, both public and private, and their employers

More information

112 March 2011 Journal of Food Distribution Research 42(1) much room for growth to the 36 billion gallons in 2022 as mandated by the RFS2. It has been

112 March 2011 Journal of Food Distribution Research 42(1) much room for growth to the 36 billion gallons in 2022 as mandated by the RFS2. It has been Government Policy and Ethanol: What Does the Future Hold? Daniel Staley and Sayed Saghaian The worlds of government and agribusiness have become intertwined with the increase in ethanol production that

More information

Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed?

Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed? Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed? Summary Increasing the amount of biofuel that can be blended into gasoline will contribute

More information

Authors: Simone Pfuderer, Grant Davies, Ian Mitchell

Authors: Simone Pfuderer, Grant Davies, Ian Mitchell Annex 5 The role of demand for biofuel in the agricultural commodity price spikes of 2007/08 Annex 5 The role of demand for biofuel in the agricultural commodity price spikes of 2007/08 Authors: Simone

More information

10.1 An Overview. 10.2. Monthly Behaviour Movements in Wholesale Price Index

10.1 An Overview. 10.2. Monthly Behaviour Movements in Wholesale Price Index 10. PRICE MOVEMENTS 10.1 An Overview The trends in wholesale price index and consumer price indices had perhaps been never so diverging as during the current period. While the wholesale prices index shows

More information

GET THE FACTS RIGHT AND KILL THE MYTHS

GET THE FACTS RIGHT AND KILL THE MYTHS GET THE S RIGHT AND KILL THE MYTHS Given the ongoing debate on ethanol benefits, it is important to distinguish fallacious myths from honest facts MYTH #1 Brazilian sugarcane ethanol leads to the deforestation

More information

The impact of biofuels on the world fertilizer market

The impact of biofuels on the world fertilizer market The impact of biofuels on the world fertilizer market By Oliver Hatfield, Director Integer Research Ltd TFI Conference, November 2007 Presentation overview Definitions and scope Factors which translate

More information

83 rd IFA Annual Conference Istanbul (Turkey), May 2015

83 rd IFA Annual Conference Istanbul (Turkey), May 2015 A/15/67b June 2015 Final Version 83 rd IFA Annual Conference Istanbul (Turkey), 25-27 May 2015 Fertilizer Outlook 2015-2019 Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud homme International Fertilizer Industry Association

More information

Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: Potential supply, impacts, and implications for the CDM

Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: Potential supply, impacts, and implications for the CDM Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: Potential supply, impacts, and implications for the CDM Wathanyu Amatayakul and Göran Berndes Department of Energy and Environment, Physical Resource Theory Chalmers University

More information

World Energy Outlook Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Tokyo, 28 November

World Energy Outlook Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Tokyo, 28 November World Energy Outlook 2013 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Tokyo, 28 November The world energy scene today Some long held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2016-2019 December 2016 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2016-2019 Economic activity in Malta is expected to remain robust over the projection horizon, supported

More information

Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook. 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015

Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook. 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015 Agricultural Reinsurance in Latin America Actual Situation & Outlook 4 th Reinsurance Congress Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) April 2015 AGENDA Commodity Price & Food Consumption Context Worldwide Agriculture

More information

Renewable Energy Development and Environment in Thailand: Rangsan Sarochawikasit

Renewable Energy Development and Environment in Thailand: Rangsan Sarochawikasit Renewable Energy Development and Environment in Thailand: Rangsan Sarochawikasit 1. Thailand national energy policy Dr Thaksin Shinawatra s government has formulated an energy policy to emphasize and promote

More information

Energía nuclar para el siglo XXI 18 y 19 de junio de 2007 UIMP, Santander

Energía nuclar para el siglo XXI 18 y 19 de junio de 2007 UIMP, Santander Energía nuclar para el siglo XXI 18 y 19 de junio de 2007 UIMP, Santander European Electricity Markets: Current Trends and Outlook ENERGY MARKET EXPERIENCE François Nguyen Senior Policy Advisor International

More information

Rising Food Prices CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

Rising Food Prices CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES Rising Food Prices CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent steep price increases of major crops (cereals, oilseeds) were triggered by a combination of production remaining somewhat below trend

More information

Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 216-225 OECD/FAO 216 PART I Chapter 1 Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 216-225 This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term

More information

CAS Chemistry Research Report Delivering the latest trends in global chemistry research

CAS Chemistry Research Report Delivering the latest trends in global chemistry research CAS Chemistry Research Report Delivering the latest trends in global chemistry research China Takes Lead in the Commercialization of Bioethanol www.cas.org Summary In 2009, the United Nations Environment

More information

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts Wally Tyner Collaborators: Dileep Birur, Tom Hertel, Farzad Taheripour Main Topics Energy and agricultural markets

More information

Classifying Biofuel Subsidies: Farm Bill and WTO Considerations

Classifying Biofuel Subsidies: Farm Bill and WTO Considerations U.S. Agricultural & Biofuels Policy Classifying Biofuel Subsidies: Farm Bill and WTO Considerations 12:00-1:30 pm, September 14, 2010 Rayburn Office Building, Room B - 340 Randy Schnepf Specialist in Agricultural

More information

The Sugarcane Industry : a sustainable source of renewable energy 30 JULY 2012

The Sugarcane Industry : a sustainable source of renewable energy 30 JULY 2012 The Sugarcane Industry : a sustainable source of renewable energy 30 JULY 2012 1 Presentation Outline Industry Location Contribution to the Economy Global Focus on Greener Technologies Global Competitiveness

More information

Renewable energy in transport

Renewable energy in transport Renewable energy in transport Source: http://worldwideed.staradvertiserblogs.com/2009/11/23/fun-day-monday-free-transport-from-naia-airport World transport energy use is growing rapidly Source: IEA Energy

More information

World Energy Outlook 2013. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency

World Energy Outlook 2013. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Copenhagen, November 26th The world energy scene today

More information

October 16, 2014. UNICA s Comments on Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Availability for the LCFS.

October 16, 2014. UNICA s Comments on Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Availability for the LCFS. October 16, 2014 VIA ELECTRONIC MAIL Mike Waug Branch Chief, Alternative Fuels Section California Air Resources Board 1001 I Street Sacramento, CA 95814 RE: UNICA s Comments on Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol

More information

Biofuels: Demand. Ethanol and Biodiesel

Biofuels: Demand. Ethanol and Biodiesel Biofuels: Demand for Ethanol and Biodiesel Example: India Compiled by Dr Shoumen Palit Austin Datta School of Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dr Shoumen Palit Austin Datta, MIT shoumen@mit.edu

More information

Biofuels and Commodity Markets Palm Oil Focus 1. P. Thoenes 2,3 FAO, Commodities and Trade Division

Biofuels and Commodity Markets Palm Oil Focus 1. P. Thoenes 2,3 FAO, Commodities and Trade Division Biofuels and Commodity Markets Focus 1 P. Thoenes 2,3 FAO, Commodities and Trade Division Abstract: In the last few years, demand for ethanol and biodiesel derived from grains, vegetable oils, sugar and

More information

Building a Sustainable Biofuels Business: an Overview of the Market and BP Biofuels

Building a Sustainable Biofuels Business: an Overview of the Market and BP Biofuels Building a Sustainable Biofuels Business: an Overview of the Market and BP Biofuels BP Biofuels a growing alternative Presentation title second line if required Kristen Kurczak, BP Biofuels Johannesburg,

More information

Sustainable Energy and Biofuel Strategies for Colombia BIOFUELS MARKET STUDY

Sustainable Energy and Biofuel Strategies for Colombia BIOFUELS MARKET STUDY Sustainable Energy and Biofuel Strategies for Colombia BIOFUELS MARKET STUDY 1 Outline of Biofuel Market Study STEP1 Diagnosis national situation Overview the situation of the biofuels in Colombia, STEP2

More information

Satellite Earth Observation - Educational initiatives of Belgian Science Policy 10 YEARS OF IMAGING SOUTH AMERICA SPOT VEGETATION

Satellite Earth Observation - Educational initiatives of Belgian Science Policy 10 YEARS OF IMAGING SOUTH AMERICA SPOT VEGETATION Agrofuels and the Rainforest The agrofuels boom A number of Latin and Central American countries (namely Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala) are currently experiencing

More information

Economic Survey website :

Economic Survey website : Commodity profiles 5.26 Among essential commodities, seven items, namely jowar, potato, tea, sugar, gur, coking coal and groundnut, exhibited high inflation rates in 2004-05. An analysis of trends of weekly

More information

Australia. Qualifying conditions. Benefit calculation. Defined contribution. Key indicators: Australia. Australia: Pension system in 2014

Australia. Qualifying conditions. Benefit calculation. Defined contribution. Key indicators: Australia. Australia: Pension system in 2014 11. PENSIONS AT A GLANCE 215: COUNTRY PROFILES AUSTRALIA Australia Australia: Pension system in 214 Australia s retirement income system has three components: a means-tested Age Pension funded through

More information

82 nd IFA Annual Conference Sydney (Australia), 26-28 May 2014

82 nd IFA Annual Conference Sydney (Australia), 26-28 May 2014 A/14/65b June 2014 Final Version 82 nd IFA Annual Conference Sydney (Australia), 26-28 May 2014 Fertilizer Outlook 2014-2018 Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud homme International Fertilizer Industry Association

More information

GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW

GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW ITEM 5 GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table of Contents GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW - TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES... 1 SUMMARY... 2 INTRODUCTION... 3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE...

More information

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis 1. Introduction The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties Tassos Haniotis Director of Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations; Communication DG Agriculture and Rural

More information

CHAPTER TWENTYONE FOOD, GLORIOUS FOOD: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES. October 2007

CHAPTER TWENTYONE FOOD, GLORIOUS FOOD: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES. October 2007 CHAPTER TWENTYONE FOOD, GLORIOUS FOOD: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES October 27 FOOD, GLORIOUS FOOD: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Structural factors behind rising food prices in the BRICs higher incomes and demand

More information

Photograph by P. Casier, CGIAR. Africa s enormous potential for regional trade in staples is not being exploited

Photograph by P. Casier, CGIAR. Africa s enormous potential for regional trade in staples is not being exploited Photograph by P. Casier, CGIAR Africa s enormous potential for regional trade in staples is not being exploited 11 Africa Can Help Feed Africa Africa has considerable variation in its climatic conditions

More information

The table Key facts for Brazil in Education at a Glance 2015 presents a summary of figures for Brazil and the OECD average.

The table Key facts for Brazil in Education at a Glance 2015 presents a summary of figures for Brazil and the OECD average. Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators is the authoritative source for information on the state of education around the world. It provides data on the structure, finances and performance of education systems

More information

Global Biodiesel Market Trends, Outlook and Opportunities. Will Thurmond

Global Biodiesel Market Trends, Outlook and Opportunities. Will Thurmond Global Biodiesel Market Trends, Outlook and Opportunities Will Thurmond Will Thurmond President, Emerging Markets Online http://www.emerging-markets.com markets.com Author, Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market

More information

Have Recent Increases in International Cereal Prices Been Transmitted to Domestic Economies? The experience in seven large Asian countries

Have Recent Increases in International Cereal Prices Been Transmitted to Domestic Economies? The experience in seven large Asian countries Have Recent Increases in International Cereal Prices Been Transmitted to Domestic Economies? The experience in seven large Asian countries David Dawe ESA Working Paper No. 08-03 April 2008 Agricultural

More information

Benchmarking of Biodiesel Fuel Standardization in East Asia Working Group

Benchmarking of Biodiesel Fuel Standardization in East Asia Working Group Chapter 2 Energy Situation in the World Benchmarking of Biodiesel Fuel Standardization in East Asia Working Group July 2010 This chapter should be cited as Benchmarking of Biodiesel Fuel Standardization

More information

Chapter 2 Analysis and Outlook of China s Sugar Industry Development

Chapter 2 Analysis and Outlook of China s Sugar Industry Development Chapter 2 Analysis and Outlook of China s Sugar Industry Development Xue Xu and Hailong Xia Abstract In this paper, sugar s production, consumption and trade status in China are reviewed systematically,

More information

Europe s exports of manufactured goods totalled almost US$ 5 trillion in 2013

Europe s exports of manufactured goods totalled almost US$ 5 trillion in 2013 Europe s exports of manufactured goods totalled almost US$ 5 trillion in 2013 Merchandise exports by region and product, 2013 (US$ billion) 4% Increase in Europe s exports of manufactured goods in 2013

More information

PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE BIOFUELS

PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE BIOFUELS PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE BIOFUELS food shortages, land availability, trade distortions rural development, energy security, savings, sustainability standards deforestation, land-use change, high food prices

More information

Biofuels in Europe at the Crossroads Implications for your business

Biofuels in Europe at the Crossroads Implications for your business Biofuels in Europe at the Crossroads Implications for your business 1. Introduction There are a number of key issues facing the EU biofuels sector going forward which suggest that the sector has reached

More information

production combination is ethanol (low value) and succinic acid (high value), together with acetic acid and electricity as co-products.

production combination is ethanol (low value) and succinic acid (high value), together with acetic acid and electricity as co-products. Summary The increasing world energy demand, depletion and unequal distribution of fossil resources, and the dangers caused by climate change are the driving forces for the development of alternative energy

More information

Palm Oil as Feedstock for Biodiesel: Production and Export from Malaysia

Palm Oil as Feedstock for Biodiesel: Production and Export from Malaysia Workshop on Developing Sustainable Trade in Bioenergy Nara, Japan, 12 May 2010 Palm Oil as Feedstock for Biodiesel: Production and Export from Malaysia Puah Chiew Wei, Ph.D. Malaysian Palm Oil Board Ministry

More information

Fuel Ethanol in Europe Outlook in the light of policy uncertainty. LMC International, Oxford, UK Platts Biofuels Conference, June 2013 www.lmc.co.

Fuel Ethanol in Europe Outlook in the light of policy uncertainty. LMC International, Oxford, UK Platts Biofuels Conference, June 2013 www.lmc.co. Fuel Ethanol in Europe Outlook in the light of policy uncertainty LMC International, Oxford, UK Platts Biofuels Conference, June 2013 www.lmc.co.uk The EU Fuel Ethanol Market in Context Demand for ethanol

More information

Please note that all IEA data are subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEA website:

Please note that all IEA data are subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEA website: Excerpt from: 2 - EXCERPT FROM ELECTRICITY INFORMATION (2015 edition) The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Electricity Information (2015 edition). Please note that we strongly advise

More information

4. PENSIONS AT A GLANCE/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN COUNTRY PROFILES ARGENTINA. Argentina

4. PENSIONS AT A GLANCE/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN COUNTRY PROFILES ARGENTINA. Argentina Argentina Argentina: Pension system in 21 The pension system has two components: a basic component and an additional social insurance component. For those aged 7 and above there is also an age-related

More information

2. Energy supply and demand: trends and prospects

2. Energy supply and demand: trends and prospects 5 2. Energy supply and demand: trends and prospects Energy demand is expected to increase considerably in the coming years as the result of population growth and economic development (EIA, 2007). Many

More information

Meat and Meat products: price and trade update Issue 1 May 2014. Meat and Meat products. Price and Trade Update: April 2014 1

Meat and Meat products: price and trade update Issue 1 May 2014. Meat and Meat products. Price and Trade Update: April 2014 1 Issue 1 May 2014 Weekly Newsletter Meat and Meat products Price and Trade Update April export prices stable Meat and Meat products Price and Trade Update: April 2014 1 The FAO Meat Price Index averaged

More information

Global Agriculture Markets: Today and

Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow AgriEvolution Summit New Delhi, India JB Penn Chief Economist December 5, 2013 1 bal Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow Brief Historic Review (2000-2013)

More information

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In

More information

GG102 Unit 2. Energy Lecture 4. Hydropower and Biofuels

GG102 Unit 2. Energy Lecture 4. Hydropower and Biofuels GG102 Unit 2. Energy Lecture 4 Hydropower and Biofuels Fuel Sources used in the USA Renewables = 8 % of fuel used in the USA Petroleum Fuel Type Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Power Renewable Energy (solar,

More information

World Energy Outlook London, 12 November

World Energy Outlook London, 12 November World Energy Outlook 2013 London, 12 November The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters

More information

Outlook for Sugarcane Biofuels Building on Brazil s s Experience with ethanol

Outlook for Sugarcane Biofuels Building on Brazil s s Experience with ethanol BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION UNIÃO DA INDÚSTRIA DE CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR Outlook for Sugarcane Biofuels Building on Brazil s s Experience with ethanol Joel Velasco Chief Representative North America

More information

Quel avenir pour le modèle brésilien en matière de biocarburants?

Quel avenir pour le modèle brésilien en matière de biocarburants? Groupe d Economie Mondiale (GEM) Sciences Po Quel avenir pour le modèle brésilien en matière de biocarburants? Marcos S. Jank President, Brazilian Institute for International Trade Negotiations Professor

More information

BIOENERGY IN GERMANY: STATUS QUO AND OUTLOOK

BIOENERGY IN GERMANY: STATUS QUO AND OUTLOOK fnr.de BIOENERGY IN GERMANY: STATUS QUO AND OUTLOOK Berlin 24 Oct 2014 Vincent Pelikan Outline Bioenergy in Germany The Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR) A Success Story Status quo o Bioenergy as a

More information

The Value Proposition for Cellulosic and Advanced Biofuels Under the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard

The Value Proposition for Cellulosic and Advanced Biofuels Under the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard The Value Proposition for Cellulosic and Advanced Biofuels Under the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard Executive Summary This paper demonstrates that the federal Renewable Fuel Standard ( RFS ) established

More information

Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil

Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil Biofuels: how much, how fast and how difficult. Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil Land Use for Ethanol (2006) BRAZIL Ethanol production from sugarcane Agricultural area (million

More information

How to reposition the energy sector s role in economic development, through innovation policies

How to reposition the energy sector s role in economic development, through innovation policies 1st Policy dialogue on energy efficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean: towards sustainable institutionalities How to reposition the energy sector s role in economic development, through innovation

More information

Outlook for Sugarcane Ethanol

Outlook for Sugarcane Ethanol BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION UNIÃO DA INDÚSTRIA DE CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR Outlook for Sugarcane Ethanol An Update on the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Leticia Phillips washington@unica.com.br www.unica.com.br

More information

Energy Megatrends 2020

Energy Megatrends 2020 Energy Megatrends 2020 Esa Vakkilainen 1 NOTE The data included in the following is mainly based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA is considered the most reliable source

More information

RENEWABLE ENERGY. Medium-Term Market Report2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020. Secure Sustainable Together

RENEWABLE ENERGY. Medium-Term Market Report2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020. Secure Sustainable Together RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020 Secure Sustainable Together RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market

More information

Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions

Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions 5A.1 A global effort will be needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to arrest climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

More information

Biofuels policy: Some insights from Brazil

Biofuels policy: Some insights from Brazil A Global Perspective on the EU Biofuel Subsidies Reform Biofuels policy: Some insights from Brazil Géraldine Kutas Senior Advisor to the President for International Affairs Head of International Affairs

More information

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry J.P. Gervais Chief Ag Economist March 2015 @jpgervais Canola Canola is one component of the environment for oil producing crops Growth in demand has supported

More information

Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions

Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions Annex 5A Trends in international carbon dioxide emissions 5A.1 A global effort will be needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to arrest climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

More information

Presentation overview

Presentation overview U.S. Ethanol Expansion: How the Agricultural Sector Adjusts & Challenges to Future Expansion Paul Westcott U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service AAEA Annual Meeting Orlando, Florida

More information

18 March World Biofuels Markets Brussels, Belgium

18 March World Biofuels Markets Brussels, Belgium 18 March 2009 World Biofuels Markets Brussels, Belgium Presented by Meghan Sapp, Secretary General Partners for Euro-African Green Energy www.pangealink.org History & Current Status of Biofuel Production

More information

Solar with Jobs: Towards sustainable Energy Products from Sugarcane in Southern Africa. SANEA 12 October 2011

Solar with Jobs: Towards sustainable Energy Products from Sugarcane in Southern Africa. SANEA 12 October 2011 Solar with Jobs: Towards sustainable Energy Products from Sugarcane in Southern Africa SANEA 12 October 2011 Presentation Outline Tongaat Hulett - Background Sugarcane Agriculture & Processing International

More information

Please address your inquiries to balances@iea.org.

Please address your inquiries to balances@iea.org. Excerpt from: ii - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (215 edition) The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Energy Balances of OECD Countries (215 edition). Please note that

More information

RE: Proposal to introduce the Liquid Fuel (Ethanol) Amendment Bill in 2015 Submission by Mackay Sugar Limited in response to the Discussion Paper

RE: Proposal to introduce the Liquid Fuel (Ethanol) Amendment Bill in 2015 Submission by Mackay Sugar Limited in response to the Discussion Paper 29 June 2015 Project Manager Queensland Biofuel Mandate PO Box 15456 CITY EAST QLD 4002 Dear Sir RE: Proposal to introduce the Liquid Fuel (Ethanol) Amendment Bill in 2015 Submission by Mackay Sugar Limited

More information

Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update: December

Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update: December December 215 Milk and Milk Products Price and Trade Update Weekly Newsletter Milk and Milk Products Price and Trade Update: December 215 1 INTERNATIONAL PRICES: Weak import demand causes prices to fall

More information

The World's Energy Outlook Post COP21. Kamel Ben Naceur International Energy Agency, Paris Brussels, April 19 th, 2016

The World's Energy Outlook Post COP21. Kamel Ben Naceur International Energy Agency, Paris Brussels, April 19 th, 2016 The World's Energy Outlook Post COP21 Kamel Ben Naceur International Energy Agency, Paris Brussels, April 19 th, 2016 The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil

More information

2/23/2011. Our Multi-Client Services. Global Biofuels Center. Presentation Overview

2/23/2011. Our Multi-Client Services. Global Biofuels Center. Presentation Overview 2/23/211 Presentation Overview Biofuels Policy & Market Issues in the U.S. Intertek Trends in Energy Kuntal Vora, Manager, Alternative Fuels Service February 1, 211 Capabilities and Product Offerings Global

More information