(Draft) Thailand Energy Master Plan April 2014 Energy Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University

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1 (Draft) Thailand Energy Master Plan April 2014 Energy Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University 1

2 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

3 National vision 2027 Security of food and fuel Environment friendly Self-sustain and competitiveness National energy policy 1. Contribution of national income 2. Energy security 3. Reasonable price 4. Renewable energy 5. Energy efficiency Key decision focus of energy master plan 3 1. Energy security Security of supply Diversification of energy mix RE and EE Research and development on technology National security 2. Social acceptance and environment friendly Confidence and trust Share benefit Low environmental impact

4 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

5 List of Key Driving Forces Good governance Concrete policies without intervention of political will Integrated management and collaboration in between stakeholders Knowledge management Globalization and open of free market Monopoly in energy sector and geopolitics Macroeconomics and economic restructuring Vulnerability of oil price Government policy Economics Progress of technology development Diverse of technology Information technology and smart grid Local technology Technology Agriculture and water Agricultural price and production Community-owned business and co-operative Water-Energy-Food NEXUS Natural disasters Social Environment Rule of medias and public informration Public participation Changing behavior and adaptation Income gap Climate policy: mitigation and adaptation Local environmental management

6 Priority in term of Impact v.s. Uncertainty Impact I. Caution Public participation and awareness Income gap and benefit sharing Climate policy Economic restructuring Investment on infrastructure and energy resources III. Low impact II. Critical Uncertainty Oil price vulnerability and geopolitics Governance and intervention by political will Globalization and free market Zoning and resource management Agricultural production and price Development of energy project in neighbor countries Medias and public information 6 Uncertainty

7 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

8 Explored future scenarios Oil price increases gradually, as expectation Long-term energy policy is concrete, intervention from politics is only short run Scenario 1: Healthy Scenario 3: Great influenza Scenario 2: Cancer stage I Scenario 4: Coma Unstable policies, energy polices is influenced by political will for long run 8 Oil shock, supply shortage due to unrest in Middle East

9 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

10 10 Structure of National Energy Demand and Supply

11 Key assumptions Coma Reference Healthy Healthy+ Macro economics Annual GDP growth approx 3.8% Economic restructuring Rely on the contribution of energy and labor intensive industries and economic sectors Restructure to less energy and labor intensive industries and economic sectors with higher value-added Population and household size Population is growing with slower rate, size of household is reduced. Expected oil 145 USD/bbl 125 USD/bbl 100 USD/bbl Infrastructure of railway system Energy efficiency improvement at compared to 2011 Peak load management and efficiency on power generation โครงการท ย งไม อน ม ต ไม เก ดข น 5% Delay for 3-5 years 12.5% 25% (On target) No improvement on load shape and efficiency of power generation On target 35% (Beyond target) 20% for peak load management, 10-20% for power plant efficiency 11

12 Key assumptions Coma Reference Healthy Healthy+ Domestic production Alternative energy Commercialized Tech.: Biomass, Biogas, 1 st gen- Biofuel, PV 20 % of target Based on proven and probable reserve perspectives (2P) 80 % of target On target Illustration tech.: 2 nd gen Biofuel, Wind, Biogas from energy crop 20 % of target 50 % of target On target Compressed Biogas (CBG) 20 % of target 50 % of target 80 % of target HEV/PHEV/EV Market share of 10 % of LDV Market share of 25% of LDV Market share of 50 % of LDV Market share of 75 % of LDV Biofuel from algae No use Half of healthy scenario 1.5 times of target on 12

13 Primary Energy Demand 250 Healthy 250 Reference Coma Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalents Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalents Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalents Healthy Solid Fuels Crude Oil Natural Gas Hydropower Renewables Nuclear l Equivalents Million Tonnes of Oil

14 Final Energy Consumption Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalents HEA+ HEA REF COM HEA+ HEA REF COM HEA+ HEA REF COM HEA+ HEA REF COM HEA+ HEA REF COM HEA+ HEA REF COM Industrial Transport Residential Commercial Agriculture Others Electricity Solid Fuels Oil Products Natural Gas Renewables

15 Energy Intensity compared to selected countries Compound Annual Averaged Growth Rate (CAAGR) Final energy intensity China Africa Indonesia Middle-East Asia World North America South Korea Latin America Europe Japan Thailand (2010) Coma () Reference () Healthy () Healthy+ () Final energy intensity [koe/us 05p] CAAGR ( ) [%] CAAGR (2010-) [%]

16 Energy import/export 100 Net Import / Primary Energy [%] Healthy+ Healthy Reference Coma Net Import [Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalents] 16 Primary Energy Secondary Energy Solid Fuels Crude Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Electricity Oil Products

17 Energy import/export compared to selected countries Net Import / TPES [%] Coma Healthy+ Thailand OECD Asia China Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Africa Reference Healthy Net Import / TPES [%] Coma Philippines Healthy+ Thailand Cambodia 0 Vietnam 10 Malaysia20 30 Myanmar Indonesia Reference Healthy Middle East -200 GDP (PPP)/Population [billion 2005 USD/Cap.] -200 GDP (PPP)/Population [billion 2005 USD/Cap.] 17

18 Energy import/export Oil and gas import/export in ASEAN 18 ท มา: World Energy Outlook Special report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, IEA 2013

19 Energy import/export Oil and gas import/export in selected countries 19 ท มา: World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA

20 Energy-related GHG emission Tonnes CO2 Equivalent per Capita Per capita energy-related GHG in Thailand Reference Coma Healthy Healthy+ CO 2 emission/population [t CO 2 /Cap.] Asia Africa Compared to selected countries China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East World Thailand Non-OECD Americas OECD Coma Reference Healthy Healthy+ GDP (PPP)/Population [billion 2005 USD/Cap.] 20

21 Summary of demand and supply outlook Energy dem mand and supply Environment and energy cost Key indicators 2011 Primary energy demand per capita in (2011= 1) Final energy demand per capita in (2011= 1) Healthy+ Healthy Reference Coma Energy intensity in (2011= 1) Diversification index (percent) Net import per primary energy (Percent) Energy-related GHG per capita in (2011= 1) Primary energy expenditure in (2011= 1)

22 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

23 Energy Vision to : Be secured and efficient, drive national economies, and create energy intellectual society 1. Efficient and 2. Secured energy Green Give priority for efficiency over fuel supply chain. Concern on environment impact Provide safeguard for energy supply security. Create import strategies and energy diplomacy. Minimize impact of oil price vulnerability 3. Driver for Economic Focus more on investment in energy sector to drive the economics. Trade off with energy imported value. 4. Energy intellectual society Focus on public participation. Let people get more involve in decision making on public policy. Focus on community-based businesses. 23

24 Strategy 1: Give priority on energy efficiency and environment concern. Indicator Target Energy Intensity (EI) Reduce EI at least 30-40% in compared to 2011 level (Equivalent to percent annually) Share of Renewable Energy At least 25% of final consumption in Energy-related GHG per capita Allow to increase not over 50% compared to the level in

25 Strategy 1: Give priority on energy efficiency and environment concern. Improve energy efficiency on end-use sector and supply chain of fuel. Support RE market and create environment to reach full economic potential in concern with national energy security, economic viable, value-added creation, import content and life cycle environment impact. Create energy pricing scheme based on market value or actual cost with the incentives and penalties for shaping into efficient and clean energy use. Avoid subsidizing on fossil fuel. Social welfare can be adopted by applying non-pricing social assistance program. Restructure economic and industrial activities toward low energy and labor intensive activities and create value-added Promote research, development, demonstration and deployment of local technology. Initiate international collaboration to monitor and keep tracking the progress of advanced energy technology. 25

26 Strategy 2: Secure energy and create confidence Indicator Target Indicator reflecting confidence of the user related to energy security Energy supply is secured, corresponding to the future demand, and be able to cope with unexpected risk properly. Indicator for energy mix diversification Primary energy is diverse. Share of natural gas for power generation is less than 50% of total generation 26

27 Strategy 2: Secure energy and create confidence Explore and invest in domestic and globally potential energy resources Create mechanism to be safeguard from external risks. Diversify sources of import energy, reduce the dependency on high-risk countries Develop action plan for emergency response. Diversify fuel mix in power generation: decrease share of natural gas, replaced by clean coal and renewable energy. Support self-dependency for potential users to relieve impact of external risk. 27

28 Strategy 3: Drive energy sector as engine for national economic development Indicator Target Investment in energy sector Investment in energy sector is approaching value of energy importing. Impact of energy project in local and provincial economy RE and community-based energy businesses become flagship project of each provinces Imported content of RE technology Imported content is improved significantly 28

29 Strategy 3: Drive energy sector as engine for national economic development Facilitate and open opportunities for private energy businesses to earn revenue back, in compensation with the future import value. Develop energy infrastructure in connecting with neighbor countries, geared up to ASEAN connectivity. Support domestic RE related industries to reduce import content, in particular RE technology. Stimulate local and provincial economy by promote RE project and communityowned businesses. Restructure energy business toward competition and give confidence to the players and investors. 29

30 Strategy 4: Moving toward energy intellectual society ด ชน ช ว ด เป าหมาย Indicator reflecting understanding in energy sector Most people understand energy situation currently and in the future. Energy become part of the living for the people. Indicator reflecting acceptance and participation from the people in energy sector Most people has positive attitude on energy project development. 30

31 Strategy 4: Moving toward energy intellectual society Promote business model, based on community-owned businesses. Focus more on public participation in decision making and project development process. Create job and indirect income to local people, where energy project is located. Initiate energy network in local area to manage local resource properly. Develop knowledge management system, including channel for public dissemination 31

32 Process of drafting Thailand Energy Master Plan Phase I Phase II 1.Identify key decision focus 2. Analyze key success factor, barrier and risk 3. Explore future scenarios 4. Analyze future energy demand and supply 5. Identify vision and key strategies 6. Guideline for Implementa tion

33 From Plan to Action (Guideline for implementation) Improve energy information system: transparent, reliability, accessibility Communication protocol and Integration in between related agencies and stakeholders Implementation and investment plans in line with the priority and importance Improve monitoring and evaluation system Restructure energy unit: assign one job by one host 33

34 34

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