Introduction to the Project and Today s Meeting

Transcription

1 EGM on Low Carbon Development Pathways, New York, May 2011 Introduction to the Project and Today s Meeting David O Connor, UN DESA

2 1. The Project: Supporting National Governments in the Transition to a Low- Carbon Development Pathway 2. Today s Meeting Contents 3. Brief on low-carbon energy planning in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines 2

3 DESA Project ( ) Division for Sustainable Development + Development Policy and Analysis Division. Possible partners: UNESCAP (Energy security scenarios) Countries (tbc): Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines. Objectives: strengthen technical capacities of policymakers and experts in defining and effectively implementing policies to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Focus: green technology, renewable energy, energy access, lowcarbon industries, fiscal sustainability, macroeconomic policy coherence, distributive equity. Beneficiaries are country-level teams, consisting of: Senior government officials in relevant ministries; Analysts in energy planning units and planning agencies; Research institutes, NGOs, etc. 3

4 Today s EGM Project activities Stakeholder mapping and regional inception workshop In-country training on energy-economy-environment modeling for low-carbon development Follow-up technical assistance EGM to peer-review outcomes of modeling exercises Website to disseminate toolkit (guidance documents, manuals, and computer codes) Regional wrap-up workshop to share lessons-learned 4

5 Problem Tree Effects Economic Growth/Development trumps climate mitigation Policymakers perceive GHG mitigation to be in conflict with economic growth, poverty eradication, and sustainable development Low-carbon development strategies not implemented Policy makers lack access to options for identifying, analysing and implementing nationally appropriate low-carbon development pathways Barriers to renewable energy and improved energy efficiency Lack of macro-economic analysis of low-carbon policy options Insufficient communication and integrated planning Causes 5

6 Today s Meeting Objective to learn lessons for the project from applications of a range of CGE, energy planning, other models for energy-climate policy analysis in developing countries Agenda CGE modeling perspectives of international organizations Other energy planning models and tools Open discussion on model use and development under the UN project Project planning and way forward (tomorrow) 6

7 Low carbon energy planning - who? Source: Mirakyan et al. (2008), 7

8 Energy-related decision making in Thailand 8

9 Energy planning process models and tools Indicators Energy models Indicators Structure problem System boundaries Define goals & scenarios Database Model runs Evaluate impacts Sensitivity analysis Compare options Select strategies Planner Decision maker Reference group Expert group Planner Planner Expert group Reference group Decision maker Expert group Actors Organisational steps Formal work plan 1. Preparation & orientation 2. Detailed analysis 3. Prioritisation & decision 9 Source: based on Mirakyan et al. (2008),

10 Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development 10

11 Models and tools in the project countries Dominated by engineers and energy systems models Thailand: MESSAGE, LEAP, ENPEP, WASP-IV, MAED, SIMPACTS, etc. Malaysia: ENPEP, WASP-IV, MAED, MESSAGE, etc. Indonesia: MARKAL, ENPEP, WASP-IV, MAED, DECADES, MESSAGE, SIMPACTS, FINPLAN, etc. The Philippines: ENPEP, WASP-IV, MAED, DECADES, MESSAGE, etc. UN-Energy WG on energy planning, 79 countries use MESSAGE, 46 SIMPACTS, and only 29 FINPLAN 11

12 Low-carbon development country analysis View of the project team National Policies - Growth strategies - Energy Global model environment, trade, etc. Energy model - Technologies - Emissions Other sources - Transport - Forestry - Agriculture Source: DSD/DESA Economy-wide modelling - CGE model - Microsimulations (poverty, equity) Economic structure Labour market Trade Macroeconomy Fiscal balance 12

13 Per capita CO 2 emissions vs. energy use in 2007 Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines CO2 emissions per capita from fossil fuel combustion [tco2] Developing and emerging Eritrea LDCs Project countries Indonesia India Yemen, Rep. Philippines Kenya Mozambique Ethiopia Developed United States Qatar South Africa Canada Malaysia China France Iceland Switzerland Thailand Brazil Energy use per capita [GJ] 13

14 Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Pop [mill.] Elec [TWh] Fossil elec [TWh] Dev plan Ene plan 15-yr Alt Energy Plan to 22 Low-C plan Nat l Strategy (07-12) Targets 0.42 kgco 2 / kwh by 2017; 20% alternative energy by 2022; 8% CRE by th Plan: RE the 5 th fuel; 10 th Plan ( ) NAC , NAC 2011 Reduce CO 2 intensity by 40% from 2005 to % RE in PE by 2025; 9.5GWh from RE by 2025; 5% biofuels in transport by NAC % RE in elec by 2013; 10% ethanol in transport by

15 Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines FIT Other subsidies, mandates Efficiency and labeling Public inv. and taxes Special note Fuel and elec. subsidies; Small RE Labelling and building codes Gasohol, coal power (Mae Moh), pipeline conflicts Small RE REDD RE mandates; RPS Tax incentives Voluntary labeling Voluntary measures Taxes; duties; RE fund Palm oil, Nuclear plans, Palm oil, Nuclear and geothermal plans; Role of regions in planning Geothermal 15

16 TNB power planning scenario for Malaysia (2009) 16

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18 Primary energy in Indonesia, Presidential decree no. 5 in 2006 Gas 22,24% Year 2005: ~6.3% Non-Fossil Coal 16,77% Hydro 3,72% Geothermal 2,48% Other Renew. 0,2% Year 2025: 15% Non-Fossil Oil 54,78% Gas >30% Coal >35% (Incl. 2% Coal Liq.) Hydro >2% Oil <20% Geothermal >5% Others >8% MiniHydro 0.2% Biofuels 5% Solar 0.2% Wind 0.05% Fuel cell 0.00% Biomass 0.5% Nuclear 2% 18 28/06/