Viet Nam Green Growth Strategy!

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1 Support towards! Viet Nam Green Growth Strategy! in Thanh Hoa Scott Muller Low Emissions Asian Development (LEAD) Program Institute for Sustainable Communities (USAID Contractor) Thanh Hoa, Vietnam 11 December, 2013

2 VGGS in Thanh Hoa Work Shop Outputs: Outline Potential Next Steps in Developing Green Growth in Thanh Hoa. Preliminary GG Stakeholder Analysis and GG Engagement Plan. Agenda: Green Growth Overview & Components Case Examples Steps for Moving Green Growth into Practice! Working Group Sessions What are the Next Steps in Developing GG in Thanh Hoa Province? Stakeholder Analysis and GG Engagement Plan

3 What is Green Growth? an important tool for achieving sustainable development. (Rio +20)! Green Growth should contribute to eradicating poverty as well as sustained economic growth, enhancing social inclusion, improving human welfare and creating opportunities for employment and decent work for all, while maintaining the healthy functioning of the earth s ecosystems. (UNCSD, 2012)

4 What is LED? The ultimate aim of a low-carbon development strategy [as a species of green growth strategy] is to catalyze concrete actions that support development, but with less emissions than without intervention. (Van Tilberg et al, 2011)

5 What is Green Growth? S. Muller

6 What is LED? Bangladesh $120,000,000,000 Bangladesh: GDP (US$) 70,000 $90,000,000,000 52,500 $60,000,000,000 35,000 $30,000,000,000 17,500 $ GDP (current US$) GDP (current US$)

7 What is LED? Bangladesh $120,000,000,000 Bangladesh: GDP (US$) vs. GHG Emissions (kt CO2) 70,000 $90,000,000,000 52,500 $60,000,000,000 35,000 $30,000,000,000 17,500 $ GHG Emissions (ktco2) GDP (current US$) CDIAC GHG Emissions (kt CO2) GDP (current US$) World Bank Data

8 What is LED? Thailand $400,000,000,000 Thailand: GDP (US$) vs. GHG Emissions (kt CO2) 400,000 $300,000,000, ,000 $200,000,000, ,000 $100,000,000, ,000 $ GHG Emissions (ktco2) GDP (current US$)

9 What is LED? Indonesia $900,000,000,000 Indonesia: GDP (US$) vs. GHG Emissions (kt CO2) 500,000 $675,000,000, ,000 $450,000,000, ,000 $225,000,000, ,000 $ GHG Emissions (ktco2) GHG Emissions (kt CO2) GDP (current US$) GDP (current US$)

10

11 Singapore s National Climate Change Strategy What is LED? Singapore Singapore's Past CO2 Emissions ( ) CO2 (kt) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Key: Absolute CO 2 Emissions Year CO 2 Intensity (CO 2 emissions per dollar GDP)

12 What is LED? $16,000,000,000 Cambodia: GDP (US$) vs. GHG Emissions (kt CO2) Cambodia 5,000 $12,000,000,000 3,750 $8,000,000,000 2,500 $4,000,000,000 1,250 $ GHG Emissions (ktco2) GHG Emissions (kt CO2) GDP (current US$) GDP (current US$)

13 What is LED? Korea $1,200,000,000,000 Korea: GDP (US$) vs GHG Emissions (ktco2) 600,000 $900,000,000, ,000 $600,000,000, ,000 $300,000,000, ,000 $ GHG Emissions kt (ktco2) GDP (current US$) GDP (current US$)

14 What is LED? Viet Nam $160,000,000,000 Vietnam: GDP (US$) vs. GHG Emissions (kt CO2) $120,000,000, $80,000,000, $40,000,000, $ GHG Emissions (ktco2) GHG Emissions (kt CO2) GDP (current US$) GDP (current US$)

15 Green Growth -High Level Examples Korea Ethiopia China Germany Mexico Cambodia S. Muller

16

17 Common Steps - Developing a GG Approach Vision VGGS Participatory Strategy Low Carbon Growth Greening Production Greening Lifestyles Action By 2020: Increase GDP per capita 100% (vs. 2010) Reduce BTUs:GDP by 2%/yr Reduce GHG:GDP intensity by 8-10%

18 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios No Impact 1. No impact 2. Sectoral displacement Positive Growth 3. Green sector growth 4. Economic greening 5. Multi-sector growth Negative Growth 6. Economic stagnation/ de-growth * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD

19 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios Scenario 1: No Impact A - Total Economy B - Traditional Sector C - Green Sector C B A * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD

20 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios Scenario 2: Sectoral Displacement A - Total Economy D C - Green Sector D - Growth Green Sector B->G - Losses in Traditional Sector C B G A * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD

21 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios Scenario 3: Green Sector Growth A - Total Economy B - Traditional Sector C - Green Sector D - Growth Green Sector E - Economic Growth D C B * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD A E

22 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios Scenario 4: Economic Greening A->E - Total Economy B->F Traditional Sector C - Green Sector C B F A E

23 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios Scenario 5: Multi-Sector Growth A->E - Total Economy B->F Traditional Sector Growth C->D - Green Sector Growth D C B F * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD A E

24 6 Subnational Green Growth Scenarios C->D Green Sector Growth B->G Traditional Sector A>H Contraction of Economy Scenario 6: Economic Stagnation/ De-growth C D B G H * Hammer, S. et al (2011) Cities and Green Growth, A Conceptual Framework. OECD A

25 Green Growth Overview & Components

26 Challenges to Green Growth & LED New Approaches in Some Sector Appreciate environmental quality Change consumer attitudes Economic approach beyond GDP Increased Investment Urban infrastructure Electricity generation Energy efficiency Requires Behavioral Change & Choice How much will it cost? Social impacts?

27 Challenges to Green Growth & LED New Approaches in Some Sector Increased Investment Requires Behavioral Change & Choice Market Failures Appreciate environmental quality Change consumer attitudes Economic approach beyond GDP Perverse Incentives Urban infrastructure Political Barriers Electricity generation Energy efficiency Institutional Barriers Social System Barriers How much will it cost? Social impacts?

28 Common Steps - Developing a GG Approach Vision Strategy Action Planning and Coordination!!! Analysis and Communication!!! Development and Implementation of integrated policy portfolios

29 Steps to put Green Growth into Practice Planning & Coordination 1. Planning and Coordination 2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3. National and Sub-national Integration Analysis & Framing 4. Benefits Assessment 5. High-Level Vision, Targets, and Baselines 6. Options Analysis Pathways and Scenarios Policy and Implementation 7. Policy Design 8. Public - Private Collaboration 9. Financing Strategies

30 Planning & Coordination 1. Planning and Coordination 2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3. National and Sub-national Integration Complex Integration of Processes and Political Decisions Preliminary Studies & Assessments Fact Finding Recommendations: Implementation Structural Policy Changes Institutional Changes

31 Planning & Coordination Most Important: Process Design Are designed to avoid/deal with barriers Start carefully with maximum buy-in and ownership of all key players Are supported by leadership as high up as possible Are motivated by indigenous self-interest.

32 Planning & Coordination 1. Planning and Coordination 2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3. National and Sub-national Integration * Forthcoming GGBP Assessment Report

33 the entire ASEAN urban population will reside in only five Mega-Urban-Regions (MUR) 2 : the Bangkok-centered MUR (30 million); the Kuala Lumpur-Klang MUR (6 million); the Planning & Coordination Singapore Triangle (10 million); the Java MUR (100 million); and the Manila MUR (30 million). Nevertheless, despite this concentration of populations in MURs, it is the second and higher tier cities of ASEAN that are urbanizing the fastest. 1. Planning and Coordination 2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3. National and Sub-national Integration Asia Urbanization Trends 3 % of Population Living in Urban Areas Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam percent o 65 years, proportio 1970 to 2 8 percen Studies in have sho been attr distributi and they domestic ASEAN, GDP is ar more tha Hong Kon rates, as GDP is n

34 Analysis & Framing 4. Benefits Assessment 5. High-Level Vision, Targets, and Baselines 6. Options Analysis Pathways and Scenarios Planning Cycle as Top Down Process Stakeholder Engagement Vision Pathway Sector/ Tech priorities Policies & Implementation strategies Tools Tools Tools Tools * Forthcoming GGBP Assessment Report

35 Analysis & Framing 4. Benefits Assessment 5. High-Level Vision, Targets, and Baselines 6. Options Analysis Pathways and Scenarios Planning Cycle as Bottom Up Process Stakeholder Engagement Identification of GG options/ B-U Sectoral plans Prioritization Strategy Tools Tools Tools * Forthcoming GGBP Assessment Report

36 Policy and Implementation Outcome & Delivery 7. Policy Design 8. Public - Private Collaboration 9. Financing Strategies Degree of Government Leadership Degree of Private Leadership Mostly Public Discretion Government control and contract for service Shared Discretion Collaborative Governance: Private Role for Public Goal Mostly Private Discretion Breakthrough Capitalism: Public Role for Private Goal * Forthcoming GGBP Assessment Report

37 Support towards! Viet Nam Green Growth Strategy! in Thanh Low Emissions Asian Development (LEAD) Program Institute for Sustainable Communities (USAID Contractor) Thanh Hoa, Vietnam 11 December, 2013

38 Green Growth Components What are the Next Steps in Developing Green Growth in Thanh Hoa?! " Stakeholder Analysis and Green Growth Engagement Plan?!

39 Next Steps: GG Strategies in Thanh Hoa Planners What planning and coordination processes will be most effective for delivering GG in Thanh Hoa? What M&E approaches will best inform policy learning and implementation? What approaches to advancing GG at the provincial level will be most effective at achieving coordination and ambition? " Analysts What approaches for assessing and communicating the benefits of GG will be most successful at gaining decision-maker and stakeholder support? Which approaches to setting high-level visions, targets and baselines will be most effective to support the design of feasible GG programmes? What approaches to prioritizing options and pathways will be most successful to support he design of feasible GG programmes?

40 Next Steps: GG Strategies in Thanh Hoa Policy Makers What cross cutting policies and policy portfolios will be most successful to generate near term benefits while enabling longer term social and economic transformation? What approaches to public-private collaboration will be most successful to mobilize private sector leadership? What financing strategies will be most effective to mobilize resources for GG?

41 Stakeholder Analysis High Keep Satisfied Manage Closely Power Low Monitor (minimum effort) Keep Informed Low Interest High

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