The problem solution framework. Process guidance for adaptation practitioners. Celeste Young

Transcription

1 The problem solutio framework Process guidace for adaptatio practitioers Celeste Youg

2 Celeste Youg was partially supported to coduct this research uder Commowealth Collaborative Research Network fudig to Victoria Uiversity. ISBN: Recommeded citatio: Youg, C. (2014). The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers. VISES Climate Chage Workig Paper No. 19, Victoria Istitute of Strategic Ecoomic Studies, Victoria Uiversity, Melboure. Youg, C. ad Joes, R. (2014). Uderstadig Adaptatio. I: Youg, C. (2014). The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers. VISES Climate Chage Workig Paper No. 19, Victoria Istitute of Strategic Ecoomic Studies, Victoria Uiversity, Melboure Ackowledgemets: Prof Roger Joes for his cotributios to the Uderstadig Adaptatio sectio ad his review of this documet. Prue Day from the City of Greater Bedigo, Yvoe Lych from City of Melboure, Greg Hut from South Easter Climate Chage Coucils Alliace, Jim Ricketts from Victoria Uiversity, Dr Roger Bodma ad Dr Bejami Presto for their review of this documet. David McIes, Jurge Scheider, Burke Reouf, Travis Riches, Roby Major, Lalitha Ramachadra, Pey Mueller, Chris Harvey, Beverly Ae Foster, Lydal Joes, Joh Houliha ad Kirsty Lee, Holly Foster, Be Morris, Margarita Kumick ad all the practitioers from local ad state govermet, commuities ad idustry who have shared their observatios ad kowledge Victoria Istitute of Strategic Ecoomic Studies, Victoria Uiversity, Melboure Australia. Disclaimer: The materials ad iformatio cotaied i this documet are provided for iformatioal / guidace purposes oly ad do ot costitute legal advice. Users of this iformatio assume all resposibility ad risk for the use of the materials. Victoria Uiversity, ad ay cotributors to the developmet of this documet, do ot assume ay legal liability or resposibility for the accuracy, completeess, or usefuless of ay material cotaied withi this package ad i o evet shall Victoria Uiversity be liable for ay damages resultig from the applicatio of this iformatio, however caused. You should ot act or omit to act o the basis of this publicatio without first obtaiig appropriate advice i respect of your particular circumstaces. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 2

3 Cotets Glossary of key terms ad phrases 4 Overview: lookig at adaptatio through 5 the problem solutio framework Sectio 1: Uderstadig adaptatio 7 Why do we eed to adapt? 8 What is adaptatio? 8 How is adaptatio differet to mitigatio? 8 Key drivers of adaptatio 9 Uderstadig systems 9 Assessig complex systems 10 Workig with ucertaity 12 The role of resiliece 12 Summary 12 Sectio 2: The problem solutio 14 process framework Backgroud 15 The phases of the problem solutio framework 15 The problem phase purpose 16 The solutio phase purpose 16 Iovatio as part of the process 16 Framig 16 The process 17 Subsequet iteratios of the process 17 The process stages 18 Summary 18 Appedices 19 Sectio 3: Iovatio ad adaptatio 28 The eed for iovatio 29 What is iovatio? 29 Systemic iovatio: the big picture 30 Bottom up: social iovatio 30 Adoptio ad diffusio 30 Implemetig iovatio 31 Key eeds for iovatio 32 Iovatio as part of the adaptatio process 32 Summary 33 Sectio 4: Adaptatio commuicatio 34 The cotext for adaptatio commuicatio 35 The challege for commuicatio 35 Framig 35 Commuicatig adaptatio effectively 36 Tools 39 Commuicatio as part of the adaptatio process 39 Makig sese of research 39 The role of arratives 40 Usig scearios 41 Scearios i the workshop process 41 Facilitatig workshops 42 Summary 43 Appedices 45 Sectio 5: Developig ad itegratig 47 ew kowledge New kowledge 48 Trasmissive ad trasformative kowledge 48 developmet Developig kowledge commuities ad etworks 50 Itegratig ew kowledge ito curret systems 50 Systems ad tools 51 Usig local kowledge 52 The role of research i geeratig ew kowledge 53 Summary 55 Sectio 6: Maagig chage 56 Uderstadig chage 57 Uderstadig the ladscape 57 Trasformatio ad trasitio 57 Strategic chage 58 Areas of resistace 59 The role of grief 59 Appreciative iquiry: workig from the bottom up 60 Commo aspects of successful chage 61 maagemet models Summary 61 Appedices 62 The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 3

4 Glossary of key terms ad phrases Adaptatio I huma systems, the process of adjustmet to actual or expected climate ad its effects, which seeks to moderate harm or exploit beeficial opportuities. I atural systems, the process of adjustmet to actual climate ad its effects; huma itervetio may facilitate adjustmet to expected climate (IPCC 2012). 1 Cost-beefit aalysis Systematic process for balacig the costs ad beefits of a project or actio. It usually ivolves chages i margial values over time discouted to allow for factors such as the cost of fiace, preferece for risk, the value of exteralities ad the cost of opportuity. Framig The term used to describe key terms of phrases that are used to create meaig for a activity, process or evet i adaptatio. 2 I practitioer terms, they are the words, images, emotio ad messagig used to develop a cotext for a particular commuicatio. Impacts Effects o atural ad huma systems. Impacts geerally refer to effects o lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, ecoomies, societies, cultures, services ad ifrastructure due to the iteractio of climate chages or hazardous climate evets occurrig withi a specific time period ad the vulerability of a exposed society or system. Impacts are also referred to as cosequeces ad outcomes. The impacts of climate chage o geophysical systems, icludig floods, droughts ad sea-level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts. 3 Itagible values No-moetary goods, services or assets/ liabilities. These iclude social, cultural ad evirometal values that cotribute to log-term social welfare. Learig by doig The process of studyig a set of actios to determie their impact ad whether they are producig the iteded outcomes. This is a reflexive process iteded to maximise the beefits of actig ad learig from these actios. Liear A direct relatioship betwee oe or more variables that remais costat over time. A direct lie of respose. Maladaptatio The adverse outcomes of adaptatio efforts that iadvertetly icrease vulerability to climate chage. Actio that udermies the future ability to adapt by removig opportuities ad hamperig flexibility is also maladaptive (modified from IPCC 2012). 4 Resiliece The capacity of social, ecoomic, ad evirometal systems to cope with a hazardous evet or tred or disturbace, respodig or reorgaizig i ways that maitai their essetial fuctio, idetity ad structure, while also maitaiig the capacity for adaptatio, learig, ad trasformatio. 5 Scearios A eablig tool that ca combie both diverse kowledge ad potetial futures i a way that allows the sythesis of a umber of possible optios. Tagible values Direct market values of goods, services or assets/liabilities. Threshold The level of system chage or impact that prompts or merits a chaged respose. I terms of maagemet, jurisprudece, legislative requiremet ad performace targets are ofte applied at critical cotrol poits withi a system. Refereces 1 Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage (IPCC). (2012). Maagig the Risks of Extreme Evets ad Disasters to Advace Climate Chage Adaptatio. A Special Report of Workig Groups I ad II of the Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage. Cambridge Uiversity Press, Cambridge, UK ad New York, USA, Goffma, E. (1974). Frame Aalysis: A Essay o the Orgaizatio of Experiece. Harper ad Row, Lodo. 3 IPCC. (2014). Summary for Policymakers. I Climate Chage 2014: Impacts, Adaptatio, ad Vulerability. Volume I: Global ad Sectoral Aspects. Cotributio of Workig Group II to the Fifth Assessmet Report of the Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage. Cambridge Uiversity Press, Cambridge, Uited Kigdom ad New York, NY, USA. 4 IPCC. (2012). Op cit. 5 IPCC. (2014). Op cit. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 4

5 Overview: lookig at adaptatio through the problem solutio framework I dyamic systems where there is costat chage ad ucertai outcomes, cotrol is ofte sought but rarely achieved. The oly real way to maitai agecy ad activity i these situatios is through people, process ad uderstadig. Climate chage is a systemic, dyamic issue where ew kowledge ad coditios are costatly evolvig. For idividuals, commuities ad orgaisatios, adaptig ofte meas learig how to respod to cotiuous chage i a way that builds resiliece ad sustais what they value. How this happes at a practical level has prove to be a voyage of discovery for may practitioers, who have bee learig by doig as they piece together the bits of the adaptatio puzzle. The problem solutio framework was developed by actively workig with researchers ad climate chage practitioers i Australia over a umber of years to assist practitioers i makig sese of the iformatio they received ad how to apply it i their cotext. What l observed durig this time was that successful practitioers i this field ofte ituitively used iovatio techiques, but did ot always recogise iovatio or uderstad how it worked. I foud that i some cases practitioers were gettig stuck i the problem phase ad cotiuig to use problem framig throughout the process, which could cause barriers to actio ad egagemet. What eeded to be uderstood was the chageover betwee the problem ad solutio phases, ad which work practices were best suited for the differet parts of the adaptatio process. I also foud i some cases that practitioers were movig ito the solutio phase without fully uderstadig the ature of the problem which could lead to urealistic expectatios ad poor outcomes. The other difficulty practitioers were ecouterig was that may of the risk frameworks beig used for the solutio phase were liear ad did ot accommodate iovatio or the uderstadig of social systems, collaboratio ad chage. As a result of this, tools ad methods were beig overlooked or ot used correctly. The level of ivestmet of time ad resources ecessary to support the iovatio eeded for adaptatio activities was also beig uderestimated as a result of this. Missig i practice were seve key aspects: The recogitio of where the chages occur betwee the problem ad solutio phases ad the differet focus ad requiremets of each phase. The recogitio of the active role that iovatio plays i the process of adaptatio ad the types of resources ad fiace eeded to support this. A overall coceptual process framework that could be used to guide but ot dictate how practitioers udertake their work. A uderstadig of the how key compoets such as developig ad itegratig ew kowledge, commuicatio ad chage maagemet worked together to support adaptatio activities. A uderstadig of how to best maage cotiuous shortad log-term chage, ucertaity ad collaboratio. A uderstadig of which frameworks would best facilitate the developmet ad use of ew kowledge. A uderstadig that may of the tools eeded for adaptatio are i plai sight ad are already used i areas of operatios. Areas of curret practice such as developmet ad itegratio of ew kowledge ito systems, chage maagemet ad commuicatio are icluded i this framework, as they ca be used to support ad iform adaptatio activities (see Figure 1, overleaf). All of these practice areas: share commo attributes are already established i may operatioal ad orgaisatioal cotexts ca provide a startig poit for practitioers that is familiar, which ca be built upo. Goverace is aother importat aspect of effective adaptatio practice because the collaborative actios eeded require structures that eable decisio makig across diverse ad ofte competig agedas. These structures also eed to provide oversight that maitais accoutability but allows some level of autoomy at lower levels to eable actio. This problem solutio framework has bee developed with the uderstadig that adaptatio is a process of social chage, where recoectig commuities ad buildig resiliece is as importat as developig ad itegratig ew kowledge ad techologies. Both risk ad iovatio play active roles ad ca be used for adaptatio activities. Risk frameworks ad methods are useful for orderig how to idetify ad assess the problem. Iovatio frameworks ad methods are useful for maagig the risks associated with dyamic situatios that have ucertai outcomes ad surprises. Adaptatio is ot a tickig the box exercise. What is used ad how it is used is depedet upo the cotext it is applied i, the task it is beig applied to ad who is applyig it. It is a process that chages ad requires willigess to egage with complexity ad disorder to reach a poit of uderstadig of where you are i the process, ad what actios might be possible. That is why this framework it is ot prescriptive. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 5

6 The aim of the Problem Solutio framework is to provide a foudatio of uderstadig for practitioers so they ca choose the process pathway they eed for the specific task they are udertakig. This way they ca pla ad implemet adaptatio actios i their ow cotext, i their ow way with the resources they have. PROBLEM SOLUTION Chage maagemet Goverace Commuicatio Kowledge developmet ad itegratio RISK INNOVATION Figure 1 Relatioship of the compoets of the problem solutio framework The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 6

7 1 Uderstadig adaptatio Celeste Youg ad Roger Joes I this sectio Why do we eed to adapt? What is adaptatio? How is adaptatio differet to mitigatio? Key drivers of adaptatio Uderstadig systems Assessig complex systems Workig with ucertaity The role of resiliece Summary Refereces

8 Why do we eed to adapt Climate chage is already affectig how we live i Australia through recet climate-related evets such as, drought, flood, fire ad heat waves. Although the resultig evirometal, social ad ecoomic costs are icreasig across all levels of our commuities, uderstadig how to address this issue effectively is still beig developed. Experiece of past evets ca iform a certai level of uderstadig but is isufficiet. New thikig frameworks are eeded to deal with uprecedeted ad potetially rapid chages i future climate risks. The most exposed orgaisatios ad commuities will eed to udertake both short- ad log-term plaig if they are to prepare for a wide rage of potetial impacts. Failure to address log-term issues may icrease vulerability ad decrease the capacity to cope, raisig the cost of respodig to impacts whe they occur. What is adaptatio? Eve with cocerted efforts to reduce greehouse gases, some climate chage caot be avoided, with most chages to 2040 beig locked i. All commuities ad idividuals will eed to adapt i some way. If they do t adapt i a plaed way, they will have to respod to evets as they happe, icreasig the likelihood of loss, maladaptive resposes ad icreased vulerability to future evets. Plaed adaptatio will eed to be geographically ad sectorally specific, ad suited to the cotext it is to be used i. For example, plaed tourism idustry resposes will be specific to: The type of tourism (eg. eco-tourism, cruises, cultural tourism such as galleries, parks, museums) Where is it located geographically (eg. atioal parks, coutry regios, coastal ad marie areas or cities) Who the operators are (eg. small or large busiess operators) The types of hazards that may affect them (eg. bushfire, floods, drought, extreme storm evets). May differet defiitios of adaptatio are i use, most of which revolve aroud actios ad processes. A widely-accepted defiitio of adaptatio accommodatig this comes from Smit ad Wadel: a process, actio or outcome i a system to allow the system to better cope with, maage or adjust to some chagig coditio, stress, hazard, risk or opportuity. 1 It is a social process that itegrates local kowledge of climate risks with expert kowledge ad ew techologies to maage the risk of the chagig climate i specific cotexts. From 1980 to 2012, disaster-related losses amouted to US$3,800 billio worldwide. Some 87% of these reported disasters (18,200 evets), 74% of losses (US$2,800 billio) ad 61% of lives lost (1.4 millio i total) were caused by weather extremes. Chagig risks World Bak, I Australia, the cost of atural disasters is projected to icrease from $6.3 billio aually to aroud $23 billio per year by Ecoomic assessmets of future impacts associated with rapid chage show such evets are likely to be more costly tha curretly aticipated, so this figure is likely to uderestimate the real cost. The risks associated with evirometal chages are ofte o-liear. Rather, they ca blow out, with dramatic step chages. Dagerous Degrees, The Climate Istitute (2013) 4 The mai perceptio of adaptatio is that it ca be addressed icremetally over time because climate chage is gradual ad sigificat impacts will oly occur decades ito the future. However, recet research idicates that rather tha gradual icremetal chage, the climate chages i a step-like fashio, producig rapid shifts i raifall regimes or chages i the icidece of extreme evets. 5 Clusters of upredictable extreme evets, such as the successio of droughts, fires, storms ad floods that affected Australia betwee 2006 ad 2012, were certaily hotter, ad may have bee wetter (floods) ad drier (drought) due to climate chage. Similar evets occurrig i the future have the potetial to sigificatly harm a wide rage of ecoomic, social ad atural values. 6 How is adaptatio differet to mitigatio? Mitigatio ad adaptatio are two related but differet aspects of climate risk maagemet: risk reductio ad risk respose. Mitigatio aims to reduce climate chage risk by reducig greehouse gas cocetratios i the atmosphere by lowerig emissios ad sequesterig carbo dioxide. This i tur reduces risks from future impacts. It requires a mix of policy ad actios operatig withi global ad atioal frameworks ad quatifiable accoutig. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 8

9 Adaptatio is cotext ad geographically specific, workig predomiatly at local to regioal scales ivolvig actios by idividuals, commuities, busiesses ad govermet. Its primary focus is to reduce the egative effect of the curret climate impacts ad to prepare for future coditios where climate plays a role. It also idetifies ad pursues opportuities that arise as part of climate chage. Key drivers of adaptatio Adaptatio has two key drivers that alig with commo objectives; adaptatio to maitai somethig such as way of life, a busiess or a commuity; or to esure ecoomic or social growth that is sustaiable. The appropriate maagemet of available resources is essetial to achievig adaptatio outcomes. Both these objectives are depedet upo the orgaisatios that implemet them, which be affected by iteral ad exteral factors that determie the type of adaptatio actios that ca be udertake. Iteral factors that ifluece adaptatio actios iclude: available resources such as skills, kowledge, time ad fiace curret strategic directios ad plaig curret processes ad systems operatioal ad istitutioal frameworks. Exteral factors that ifluece adaptatio actios iclude: geographical cotext regulatory eviromet surroudig commuity desity, culture, diversity, etc. policy stability ad chage markets resource availability. 7 These factors ca act as costraits or eablers depedig upo the cotext ad type of adaptatio actio required. For example, oe orgaisatio may have limited fiacial resources but may have access to a umber of voluteers who ca assist. The actios they udertake will be tailored to the skills, umber ad availability of those voluteers. They may also be costraied by policies relatig to the use of voluteers ad examie workig with other orgaisatios that do ot have these costraits. For example, Coservatio Voluteers Australia carry out coservatio ad Ladcare projects. Practitioers will eed to cosider how to work withi these costraits but also how to thik outside of them ad iovate. Thikig outside the costraits allows for creative problem solvig that works towards more sustaiable outcomes. Resource ad capacity costraits, for example, ca be overcome at times through multiparty collaboratios where parties pool resources to work towards a mutually beeficial outcome. A example is the work udertake by regioal bodies, such as greehouse actio alliaces i Victoria, where groups of muicipal coucils have pooled kowledge ad resources to develop regioal adaptatio plas. These collaboratios have eabled less well-resourced coucils to udertake adaptatio activities that would otherwise ot have bee possible. Uderstadig systems Adaptatio is a systemic issue that affects evirometal, social ad ecoomic systems (Figure 1.1). Each of these systems is supported by a umber of smaller subsystems that i tur iteract with each other. It helps to see a idividual operatio as a system with may iteractig parts ad also to recogise that each system, whether it be a commuity, busiess etwork or govermet agecy, is part of a larger system. May of these systems are complex, itercoected ad iterdepedet. For example, i atural systems such as rivers ad coastlies that cross jurisdictioal boudaries; stakeholders from oe area may take actio that may have repercussios dowstream or further alog the coastlie, trasferrig the resposibility for maagig ay subsequet risks to other jurisdictios. The iterrelated ature of these systems ca result i chai reactios that resoate across systems ad through subsystems, possibly cotiuig for log periods after a evet. Social Ecoomic Evirometal Figure 1.1 Iteractive evirometal, social ad ecoomic systems. Secodary impacts of evets such as flood, fire ad drought are ofte overlooked but ca icrease vulerability ad reduce resiliece to future evets. Durig the drought of , for example, may farmers experieced high debt ad reduced farm productivity due to evirometal degradatio accompayig prologed dry coditios. Secodary impacts, such as icreased metal health issues ad reduced social cohesio, also affected may commuities. 8 This, i tur, icreased the vulerability of some farmers to accumulatig impacts. At a ecoomic level, secodary impacts ca be devastatig particularly i regioal areas where small busiesses may ot have the resiliece or strategies to deal with such evets. After the fires i Marysville i 2009, for example, 80% of local busiesses had failed withi 12 moths. 9 The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 9

10 Uderstadig how differet compoets of a system will be impacted by climate chage ca help orgaisatios pla for future evets. For example; i a operatioal system the chai of impacts across both the iteral ad exteral system of the operatios ca make it easier to make decisios about: How each area is impacted. What the priorities are i a give cotext. What adaptatio optios may eed to be cosidered. For example, a busiess system has may iteractig parts (staff, capital ifrastructure, itellectual capacity ad culture); ad this busiess system is part of a larger system ivolvig suppliers, logistical supply chais, customers, competitors, ad the policy ad regulatory eviromet (Figure 1.2). Assessig complex systems A commo framework used to assess evirometal systems is the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts ad Respose (DPSIR) Framework. This is a systematic idicator selectio procedure 11, which ca ecourage ad support decisio makig by ascertaiig how a system works, ad is affected through mappig cause-ad-effect of these compoets o each other. The key aspects of this are: Drivers what is drivig the system? Pressures what is exertig pressure o which compoets of the system? State what is the state of the system? Impacts what is the impact o compoets of the system? Resposes what resposes are happeig i the system ad how do they affect the other compoets? A illustratio of a simple use of the DPSIR framework is show overleaf (Figure 1.3). This diagram shows possible resposes to the affects of icreasig impacts of climate chage. As each actio is take it will affect each compoet it directly impacts ad also have flow-o effects for other compoets i the system. For example, the applicatio of regulatio ad policy ad fiacial icetives ca have a direct impact o the EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON BROADER NETWORK public/private electric ad water utilities ad other ifrastructure VALUE CHAIN supplies of atural resources ad raw materials disruptios to supply chai other iputs ito productio CORE OPERATIONS physical assets, productio processes, or O&M workforce ad chagig lifestyles customers access to product customers ad demad for goods ad services govermet-supplied services Figure 1.2 The Risk Disk. 10 The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 10

11 drivers that create the eed the for adaptatio ad ca either icrease or reduce the pressures, which i tur shape the state of the eviromet. This i tur ca affect the types of impacts experieced which i tur directs the types of resposes eeded. Uderstadig the surroudig systems, or a aspect of your ow operatioal system, also supports the developmet of itegrated approaches that work withi our ow atural ad social systems to better maage climate impacts ad adaptatio resposes. The followig questios ca be useful whe applyig or thikig through this framework 12 : What is your area of iterest? (eg. adaptatio, ocea health) What are the boudaries of the area you wish to examie what eeds to be icluded ad what does t? What are the boudaries of the system/s you are assessig? What idicators will be most effective for assessig this system? How should these idicators be categorised? (eg. quality, scale, time) How should these idicators be orgaised across the assessmet framework? What are the cause ad effect pathways i the framework? RESPONSE Mitigatio Improvig preparedess/resiliece Policy, regulatios, fiacial icetives Risk assessmets, adaptatio plas, commuity actios DRIVERS The icreasig effects of the impacts of climate chage IMPACTS Degradatio of eviromet Natural resource depletio Social ad ecoomic disruptio ad chage Plaig policy, stadards Moitorig ad evaluatio, research PRESSURES Icreasig fiacial ad social burde Resource costraits Evirometal chages ad icreasig populatio growth STATE Icreased vulerability of society, eviromet ad ecoomies to climate chage impacts Figure 1.3 DPSIR framework showig adaptatio resposes. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 11

12 Workig with ucertaity Because the climate is a dyamic ad upredictable system, there will always be a sigificat level of ucertaity associated with adaptatio plaig. A acceptace of workig with the ukow ad icomplete iformatio is ecessary, particularly i relatio to future projectios ad policy outcomes. This ca be a major barrier to udertakig adaptatio. Differetiatig betwee the types of future ucertaity i the adaptatio process will help to see how they ca best be maaged. Some ucertaities ca be maaged with ew kowledge, some with better uderstadig of the decisio makig cotext, ad some with processes that ca chage ad offer more flexible resposes to uexpected outcomes. I particular, ogoig moitorig provides early warig of chagig coditios. For example, a busiess may ot be able to predict a extreme evet such as a heat wave, but it ca moitor weather reports ad activate respose measures if such a evet is likely to occur. Table 1.1 outlies key areas of ucertaity ad actios. Maagemet strategies ca accommodate ogoig ucertaities by usig flexible, reflexive processes throughout the adaptatio process. These allow for surprises ad chage to be assessed ad respoded to as they arise. The role of resiliece Buildig resiliece is a growig aspect of Australia climate chage policy ad plaig policies. It is featured at a state policy level, such as the Victoria State Adaptatio Pla 13 ad State Emergecy White Paper 14. At the federal level, it is the focus of the Natioal Strategy for Disaster Resiliece 15 udertake by COAG ad has bee icorporated i the Climate Adaptatio Outlook Framework 16. Resiliece has also become a key focus of orgaisatios such as Ecoomic Developmet Australia, who see it as cetral to sustaiig future busiesses. 17 Resiliece meas differet thigs to differet people ad as a result, ca be a difficult cocept to put ito operatio. A recet ad useful defiitio adopted by the Arctic Coucil is: The capacity of a social-ecological system (or orgaisatio) to cope with a hazardous evet or disturbace, respodig or reorgaisig i ways that maitai its essetial fuctio, idetity, ad structure, while also maitaiig the capacity for adaptatio, learig, ad trasformatio. 18 Criteria defiig resiliece are cotext ad task-specific, ad it is difficult to come up with a set of measures that ca be used to evaluate success or failure. Uderstadig whe ad where chagig risks may lead to critical thresholds beig exceeded is a essetial requiremet for maagig ad maitaiig resiliece. Exceedig a critical threshold such as a loss of operatios, prohibitive iput costs or fiacial impact due to evets ca result i decreased resiliece. It is particularly importat to be able to idetify the sigals that precede these thresholds ad take actio before the threshold is reached. 19 Whe approachig resiliece, it helps to see it as a cotiuous task, ad orgaisatios should aim to be adaptig well to cotiuous chage rather tha beig well adapted to a particular set of coditios. 20 Summary Climate chage presets a key risk for our eviromet, our ecoomies ad our commuities. For people udertakig adaptatio it requires uderstadig of their iteral ad exteral systems, ad the relatioship ad iterdepedecies betwee them. It also requires a uderstadig of mitigatio ad adaptatio activities, ad the differeces ad syergies betwee these two areas. Ucertaity is part of the adaptatio process that eeds to be accommodated ad maaged i a way that eables effective resposes ad actio. It is also importat to idetify where opportuities to act exist, ad where it is ot possible to do so. Resiliece to ot oly climate impacts but also to the chages that will be required as a result of our chagig climate, is key to future sustaiability beig achieved. Table 1.1 Key areas of ucertaity, agecy ad actios that ca be take by adaptatio practitioers. KEY AREA OF UNCERTAINTY AREA OF AGENCY ACTIONS THAT CAN BE UNDERTAKEN BY PRACTITIONERS Scietific ucertaity about the ature of future climate risks. Ucertaity regardig actios that have bee take to reduce impact ad mitigate risk. Operatioal (activity-related) ucertaity about iovatio ad ucertai outcomes of adaptatio actios. Circumstatial ucertaity relatig to surroudig political, ecoomic, social ad evirometal coditios. Moitorig ad respose Moitorig ad respose Plaig ad respose Strategic plaig ad respose Moitor, review ad icorporate ew iformatio ito activities as eeded. Moitor, review ad icorporate ew iformatio ito activities as eeded. Ogoig plaig, moitor, review, respose ad adjustmet. Strategic plaig, moitorig, review of ew iformatio ad icorporatio ito activities as eeded. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 12

13 Refereces 1 Smit, B. ad Wadel, J. (2006) Adaptatio, adaptive capacity ad vulerability. Global Evirometal Chage, 16, World Bak. (2013). Buildig Resiliece: Itegratig climate ad disaster risk ito developmet. Lessos from World Bak Group experiece. The World Bak, Washigto DC. 3 Deloitte Access Ecoomics. (2013). Buildig our Natio s Resiliece to Natural Disasters, Australia Busiess Roudtable for Disaster Resiliece ad Safer Commuities, Deloitte Access Ecoomics. 4 The Climate Istitute. (2013). Dagerous Degrees. The Climate Istitute, Sydey. 5 Joes, R., Youg, C., Hadmer, J., Keatig, A., Mekala, G. ad Sheeha, P. (2013). Valuig Adaptatio Uder Rapid Chage. Natioal Climate Chage Adaptatio Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia. 6 Youg, C. ad Joes, R. (2013b). Buildig Bridges: Supportig Adaptatio i Idustry Thik Tak Cotext Paper. Victoria Cetre for Climate Chage Adaptatio Research, Melboure. 7 Youg, C. ad Joes, R. (2013). Op cit. 8 Edwards, B., Gray, M., ad Huter, B. (2008). Social ad ecoomic impacts of drought o farm families ad rural commuities. Submissio to the Productivity Commissio s Iquiry ito the Govermet Drought Scheme. Australia Istitute of Family Studies. 9 Youg, C. (2013). Smart Futures: VCCCAR Regioal Busiess Roudtable Fial Report, Victoria Cetre for Climate Chage Adaptatio Research, Melboure. 10 Sussma, F. ad Freed, R. (2008). Adaptig to Climate Chage a Busiess Approach, Pew Cetre for Climate Chage, Washigto, DC. 11 Niemeijer, D., ad De Groot, R. (2008). Coceptual framework for selectig evirometal idicator sets, Ecological Idicators, 8, Niemeijer, D., et al. (2008). Op cit. 13 Departmet of Sustaiability ad Eviromet. (2013). Victoria Climate Chage Adaptatio Pla, Victoria Govermet Melboure. 14 Departmet of Premier ad Cabiet. (2012). Victoria Emergecy Maagemet Reform, Victoria Govermet, Melboure. 15 Coucil of Australia Govermets (COAG). (2011). Natioal Strategy for Disaster Resiliece: Buildig our atio s resiliece to disasters, coag.gov.au/ode/81 (accessed 13 July 2014) 16 Australia Govermet Departmet of the Eviromet (DoE). (2013). Climate Adaptatio Outlook, (accessed 1 February 2014) 17 Meetig with Matthew Gould, Executive Officer, Ecoomic Developmet Australia, May Arctic Coucil. (2013). Glossary of terms. I: Arctic Resiliece Iterim Report. Stockholm Eviromet Istitute ad Stockholm Resiliece Cetre, Stockholm. 19 Greg Hut, Executive Officer, South Easter Climate Chage Coucil Alliace. (2013, April). Climate Adaptatio Pathways Workshop, Departmet of Idustry Iovatio, Climate Chage, Sciece Research ad Tertiary Educatio, Caberra. 20 Youg, C. ad Joes, R. (2013). Op cit. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 13

14 2 The problem solutio process framework Celeste Youg I this sectio Backgroud Phases of the problem solutio framework Problem phase purpose Solutio phase purpose Iovatio as part of the process Framig The process Subsequet iteratios of the process Process stages Summary Refereces Appedices

15 Backgroud The problem solutio framework was origially desiged i 2010 as a process-based coceptual framework to assist decisio makig ad maagemet of adaptatio projects through defiig the differet problem solutio compoets of the adaptatio process. Sice the, the framework has bee developed further ad aspects of it refied. This framework draws heavily o observatios of adaptatio practitioers over a umber of years. It also draws o a wider rage of practitioer ad research kowledge i sustaiability, busiess iovatio, emergecy maagemet ad the arts, where dyamic ad ubouded situatios are commo. These practice areas all have established processes ad frameworks that eable outcomes i ucertai situatios. They also provide a familiar base from which practitioers ca start. The lack of clarity regardig a overall process for adaptatio plaig ad implemetatio has cofused may practitioers, who are ofte preseted with umerous ufamiliar actios ad little isight as to how the overall picture fits together. This was highlighted i work udertake by VCCCAR to map adaptatio processes used by local govermets i Victoria, which observed there are multiple startig poits ad ways of udertakig the process. 1 Adaptatio is dyamic ad systemic, ad therefore caot be maaged through cotrol. It requires flexible, iterative frameworks which allow for reflectio ad adjustmet. The problem solutio framework was developed with this i mid. I particular it aims to clarify: The problem ad the solutio phases ad the chageover poits betwee these two phases. (This is importat because although both phases overlap ad iform each other, each phase requires differet approaches, methods ad tool applicatio.) The cetral role that iovatio has i the process of adaptatio implemetatio. How areas of curret practice, such as developig ad itegratig ew kowledge, commuicatio ad chage maagemet, ca be used to support adaptatio activities. Tools selectio ad applicatio for the differet types of adaptatio activities. Optios for maagig cotiuous chage ad learig ad dyamic risks. Framig is a importat aspect of this framework because how a exercise is framed ofte dictates what is used ad how it is used. The key framig for the whole adaptatio process to date has bee risk. This has meat that the predomiat frameworks ad tools that have bee used by practitioers have bee risk-based. Usig this sigle framig of risk for two very differet phases of a process has at times ot oly bee hamperig the implemetatio of the actios themselves, but also the effective use ad allocatio of resources. Risk frameworks are useful as a meas to uderstad the problem ad develop resposes, however they do ot always fully address the eeds of practitioers durig the solutio phase. The use of iovatio framig ad frameworks ca help address this issue as iovatio frameworks are desiged to support social ad techological chage ad trasformatio. They also offer optios for maagig dyamic risk where outcomes are ucertai. Iovatio combies what is preexistig with ew kowledge ad techologies, so it also ecourages practitioers to cosider other frameworks, systems ad tools already i plai sight, such as busiess cotiuity, ISO stadards ad quality assurace frameworks that ca be used to itegrate adaptatio ito curret operatios or commuities. Adaptatio is also complex because it is cotext specific ad so eeds are diverse. This makes it impossible to give a sigle explicit istructio for udertakig adaptatio. That is why this framework poits to key compoets that are ecessary for adaptatio ad orders them ito phases ad key tasks. This allows practitioers to develop their ow istructios through idetifyig where they are, ad uderstadig the optios available to them. This way they maitai owership of their activities through the choices they make. Phases of the problem solutio framework Adaptatio has two distictly differet phases: a problem phase ad a solutio phase (Figure 2.1). These separate phases overlap ad iform each other but have differet eeds i Problem Idetificatio of problem Risk Assessmet Assessmet Figure 2.1 The problem solutio phases. Solutio Implemetatio of actio Iovatio relatio to kowledge, commuicatio, methodology ad tool use. Although much has bee writte about the problems ad solutios of adaptatio, there is little literature i adaptatio that shows how this should be applied, or what pathways ca be used to avigate through them. Each phase directs: what framig is used the type of tools used ad how they are used the type of ucertaity ecoutered, ad the way commuicatio ad kowledge developmet is udertake. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 15

16 Problem phase purpose The problem phase process is diagostic ad its purpose is to idetify what the problem is. This is doe by idetifyig the risks associated with potetial climate chage impacts ad prioritisig them. The primary framig that directs the frameworks ad tools used is risk. Kowledge durig this time is collected ad sythesised to eable uderstadig, owership ad decisio makig. Key questios associated with the problem phase are: What is the problem? Who is affected by this problem? Who is resposible for this problem? How are they affected by this problem? What are the priorities? Solutio phase purpose The purpose of the solutio phase is treatmet of the problem. This is achieved through the developmet ad implemetatio of adaptatio actios ad is the active phase of the process through to the fial evaluatio of project. The key framig for this phase is iovatio. Kowledge collected ad sythesised i the problem phase is itegrated ad used to eable agecy to act, lear ad improve. Key questios for the solutio phase: What solutio has the greatest value for the stakeholders? (Cost-effectiveess, social beefits, preservatio.) Who will be udertakig the actio? Who is resposible for the actio ad how are they resposible? (At a idividual ad agecy level.) What resources are available ad what is the capacity of the orgaisatio udertakig the actio? What are the risks associated with udertakig this actio ad how should they be maaged? Iovatio as part of the process Risk ad iovatio iform ad direct the type of actios that are beig udertake ad how they are udertake durig the differet stages of the adaptatio process (Figure 2.2). PROBLEM RISK DIRECT SOLUTION I most cases to date, iovatio has ot bee defied withi the adaptatio process. Detailig this is helpful because it allows for two thigs: 1. Greater uderstadig of the differet tools ad approaches eeded durig adaptatio ad their specific use, ad 2. Appropriate moitorig ad evaluatio durig these phases. It ca also help better defie the type of ivestmet ad programs eeded to eable adaptatio activities, ad help idetify the type of commuicatio eeded ad how it ca be applied. Framig As there are ofte multiple levels of framig for adaptatio activities, dividig these frames ito specific levels ca help with the idetificatio of available tools ad methods (Table 2.1). I the problem phase for example, a orgaisatio may udertake a project focusig o impacts ad hazards for a local fire authority ad use risk mitigatio frameworks. Alteratively, i the solutio phase, the actio might be to improve commuity attitudes relatig to fire safety ad use social ad busiess iovatio i a local commuity. Table 2.1 Framig levels for adaptatio. Level of framig Framig* Level 1: Adaptatio phase Problem Solutio Level 2: Focus for activity Risk Iovatio Level 3: Cotext where activity is applied Locatio (eg. commuity, regioal, urba) Sector (eg. agriculture, maufacturig, health) Research (eg. social, evirometal, ecoomic) Orgaisatio (eg. NGO, govermet, busiess, regioal body, local agecy) Level 4: Focus of activity Vulerability Social Resiliece Political Exposure Ecoomic Sesitivity Istitutioal Hazard Techological Impacts Systemic Busiess Icremetal Evirometal Operatioal * The framig i this table does ot ecompass all possibilities. Other terms ad sub-layers of framig ca be applied. INNOVATION INFORM Figure 2.2 Risk ad iovatio focus durig the problem solutio process. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 16

17 Problem Solutio Scopig Establishmet of risk criteria Collatio, uderstadig ad acceptace of the data Aalysis ad assimulatio of data Developmet of adaptatio actios optios Selectio of adaptatio actios Idetificatio of problem Assessmet 1 Evaluatio of adaptatio actio Assessmet of actio impact o the problem Assessmet 2 Developmet ad implemetatio of actios Developmet ad testig of adaptatio actio Adoptio ad diffusio of adaptatio actio (idea) Uptake of adaptatio actio Risk Iovatio Figure 2.3 The problem solutio process framework. The process The four key tasks (Figure 2.3) i the adaptatio process are: 1. Collatio of risk data. 2. Assessmet of risk data. Developmet ad selectio of adaptatio actios. 3. Developmet ad implemetatio of adaptatio actios. 4. Evaluatio of actios. The two assessmet tasks provide the trasitio poits betwee the problem solutio phases. Assessmet Task Oe has two key purposes: 1. To idetify, aalyse ad prioritise the risk(s), ad 2. The developmet ad selectio of the adaptatio actios. Assessmet Task Two has two key purposes: 1. The assessmet of the impact of the actio o the problem, ad 2. The evaluatio of the project udertake. As this process ca be applied to a specific project or a umber of projects at oce, there is o specific time for completig this process cycle ad some tasks will take loger tha others. For example, the buildig of a dyke will have a differet time frame to the developmet ad implemetatio of a ew adaptatio process i a busiess. (For details of this process, see Appedix 2.A.) Subsequet iteratios of the process As this process is cotiuous ad iterative, it is completed oly to be started agai. Kowledge is developed ad accumulated through each iteratio of the cycle, with each process cycle addig a ew kowledge layer (see New kowledge, p48). This meas addig a additioal step of kowledge evaluatio durig the first ad secod tasks of the cycle after the process cycle has bee completed for the first time (Figure 2.4, overleaf). This is to esure that kowledge beig used has ot bee superseded, ad that decisios are beig made upo the best available iformatio. Key questios for this stage are: What is the task? What iformatio do we have? Is there ew iformatio that should be icluded? Actios that have previously bee udertake may also be evaluated at the ed of the adaptatio process cycle to provide a complete picture of adaptatio actios udertake before re-eterig the risk phase of the cycle. With each ew iteratio of the cycle, you will be able to gauge progress made or adjustmets that may eed to be made to your overall adaptatio pla ad actios. This will assist the scopig of the ext exercise(s) that may be udertake. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 17

18 Scopig of project Review of kowledge Developmet of risk criteria Collatio of data Idetificatio of problem Assessmet Task 1 Assessmet of the project impact i relatio to the overall adaptatio program or other projects Assessmet of the actio o the problem Evaluatio of the project Assessmet Task 2 Implemetatio of actio Figure 2.4 Additioal steps for subsequet iteratios of the problem solutio process framework. Key questios for this stage are: How has this project reduced the problem? How has it cotributed to the adaptatio program ad other programs withi it? Has it impacted other programs ad do they eed adjustmet as a result? Referece 1 Fuefgeld, H. (2011). The Navigator, Presetatio, Victoria Cetre for Climate Chage Adaptatio Aual Forum, Hilto Hotel Melboure Australia. Process stages It is importat to ote that durig the adaptatio process that stages may chage or ot be eeded, particularly durig the implemetatio phase. This depeds o may factors, icludig: the maturity of particular actios, what is beig udertake ad how it is beig udertake. For example, adoptio, diffusio ad uptake of a idea may happe simultaeously, or a idea may have udergoe diffusio durig a previous project ad the key purpose becomes uptake of specific actios. Alteratively, a activity based o a risk that has previously bee assessed may ot eed to udertake aother assessmet, but may wish to re-evaluate ad update the previous assessmet istead. Summary The problem solutio framework provides a coceptual approach that ca be used to guide practitioers. It provides a foudatio that ca be built upo as adaptatio practice progresses ad allows for the additio of ew stages ad iterpretatios. I applicatio, it allows for practitioers to choose what is most appropriate for their cotext ad task. Key to this framework is the crossover from the problem to the solutio phase ad how this directs the framig ad the tools that are used ad how they are used. The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 18

19 Appedix 2.A: Process steps detail Scopig the risk assessmet Because climate risks ad their impacts are systemic, they are a ubouded problem. Parameters have to be established to boud the issue ad esure tasks beig udertake are achievable. Ways to boud a assessmet ad defie its scope iclude defiig: Aspects of risk to be examied (eg. vulerability, hazards, exposure, sesitivity, resiliece or a itegrated assessmet combiig several aspects). Geographical area regio, regioal, state, atioal. Jurisdictioal level orgaisatioal, muicipal, state, atioal. Systems area social, evirometal, ecoomic. Key questios What are the boudaries of the project? What goverace will be eeded? What moitorig ad evaluatio is eeded? The capacity of the group ad the resources available to them will also iform the project scope. This is also the poit where goverace, moitorig ad evaluatio should be set up for the project (see Appedix 2.B ad 2.C). Risk criteria Risk criteria ca be uderstood as: terms of referece that are used to evaluate the sigificace or importace of a orgaisatio s risks. They are used to determie whether a specified level of risk is acceptable or tolerable. The Praxiom Research Group report also otes that: They should: reflect a orgaisatio s values, policies, ad objectives; be based o its exteral ad iteral cotext; cosider the views of stakeholders; ad be derived from stadards, laws, policies ad other requiremets. Risk criteria allow a orgaisatio to clearly defie what level of risk the orgaisatio is prepared to accept for a particular evet or activity. It is agaist these criteria that a idetified risk will be evaluated durig the risk assessmet process to determie what actios are eeded. The risk evaluatio criteria ca be also be developed ad refied i later reiteratios of the cycle as ew risks are idetified ad aalysed. The scale of the criteria is depedet upo the scope that the project group have outlied ad ca rage from macro levels (such as a atioal assessmet) to micro levels (such as a busiess sector or orgaisatio). A umber of factors eed to be cosidered whe establishig risk criteria. These relate to how prepared a orgaisatio is, what it does ad how it operates, icludig: The exteral ad iteral eviromet. The curret risk profile what risks are curretly idetified. Risk appetite ad tolerace levels how much risk is acceptable ad how resiliet the orgaisatio is to the risks. Accoutabilities ad resposibilities who is resposible ad how they are resposible. Policies, plas, strategies ad frameworks ad processes that may apply (eg. busiess cotiuity plas, ISO frameworks, regioal ad state adaptatio plas). These form the basis for defiig the types of risks that are importat to a particular orgaisatio. Ofte there are diverse stakeholders ivolved i formig a criteria, so mappig syergies betwee these agedas ad uderstadig the values that iform these whe developig the fial criteria is importat. A umber of useful frameworks ad guidace materials with clear processes for uderstadig this are available. A useful resource is the Decidig for the coast, a guide for decisio makig for cost-effective adaptatio developed by the South Easter Coucil Climate Chage Alliace. Materials from emergecy services sectors such as the Commuity Emergecy Risk Assessmet (CERA) process developed by the Victoria State Emergecy Services are also useful. Key questios Who are the key stakeholders ivolved? What agedas are importat to stakeholders? What is cosidered a acceptable level of risk for the stakeholders? What is commo to all stakeholder agedas ad policies? What ca we agree upo? What do we wat to achieve? Praxiom Research Group Limited. (2010). Plai Eglish, ISO , praxiom.com/iso terms.htm#2.22_ Risk_criteria_ (accessed 2 December 2013). Marsde Jacob Associates. (2012). Decidig for the Coast: A Guide for Decisio-Makig o Cost Effective Adaptatio, localgov/examples/decidig-coast-guidedecisio-makig-cost-effective-adaptatio (accessed 13 July 2014). Victoria State Emergecy Service. (2014). Risk Assessmet. au/prepare/em-plaig/risk-assessmet (accessed 2 Feburary 2014). The problem solutio framework: process guidace for adaptatio practitioers VISES, Victoria Uiversity. Page 19