Regional climate adaptation solutions towards resilient energy systems

Transcription

1 Regional climate adaptation solutions towards resilient energy systems Sönke Stührmann Stefan Gößling Reisemann, Thomas Blöthe, Jakob Wachsmuth, Arnim von Gleich (Universität Bremen), Jens Clausen (Borderstep Institute) Climate Change and Regional Response 2013 (CCRR-2013) May 27-29, 2013, Dresden, Germany

2 Outline Introduction: The project, the region & energy as key sector From theory to practical implementation Focus: project data center cooling Open questions S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14

3 nordwest Prospects for climate-adapted Innovation Processes in the Model Region Bremen-Oldenburg in North Western Germany Metropolitan area Bremen- Oldenburg: 2.3 Mill. Habitants 5 year Project ( ) Time Frame: about 40 years ( ) 4 Sectors: Logistics & port management, food industry, Governance energy S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Source: 3/14

4 Energy - a key sector within the Region 1/3 of Germany's Gas storage capacity within the MPR (LBEG 2010) 95% of Germanys Gas production located in Lower Saxony (high share of gas sources within the region) + 98% of potential gas resources (LBEG 2008, Gabriel et al. 2010) About 40% of Germany's shipped hard coal imports were landed in the five ports within the region (2010) 78% of Germany's petroleum imports landed Wilhelmshaven (2008) High Energy demand within the region, due to large industrial sector (Steel, automotive, wind energy, aeronautics + food industry) High share of renewables - 42% of total electricity production from renewables esp. Wind an Biogas (Total installed capacity: ~3.6 GW) S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Source: Gabriel et al. 2010, LBEG 2008, LBEG 2010, 4/14

5 The Process Design in northwest Roadmap of Change. How to build a resilient region? 4. Implementation of Lighthouse projects: What do we need to create a resilient energy system? 3. Innovation potential analysis (IPA): What opportunities arise from climate change? 2. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) : What is the impact of climate change on the regional energy sector? 1. Theory: How we can guide innovation processes under uncertainty? S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14

6 1. Theory - How we can guide innovation processes under uncertainty? The Resilience Approach In climate adaptation research uncertainties play an important role Our approach is based on the idea that ecosystems always are confronted with changing environments Following ecosystem theory, Resilience (Holling & Gundersson, 2006; Brand, 2006 ) could be a kind of guiding principle for this Despite all differences between social-technical systems & social-ecological systems, some principles seem to be transferrable Resilience describes the capability of systems to maintain their system services even under stress and in turbulent environments (despite massive external disturbances and internal losses) S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14 (Holling & Gundersson, 2006; Brand, 2006, Gleich et al. 2010, Stührmann et al )

7 1.Theory - Elements of a resilient energy system Strengthening regional supply Variability, Diversity, Modularity, Flexibility Increasing decentral, sustainable, (climate) adaptive generation Decentrality, Redundancy, Adaptivity Using regional storage Storage and buffer capacity, Robustness, Supply security Dynamic management of generation, storage and demand Intelligence, Flexibility, Connectedness Using waste heat and material residues Resource breadth, Efficiency, Sustainability S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Gleich et al. 2010, Stührmann et al. 2012, Wardeckker 2010, Chaudry, 2011) 7/14

8 Structural Climate 2. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) What is the impact of climate change on the regional energy sector? Global climatestorylines Regional climate scenarios System analysis (Abilities/ Structure/Resources) Energy system scenarios Supply chain analysis Expert interviews/ workshops Technolog. Models + Impact analysis S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Gabriel et al. 2010, Wachsmuth et al. 2013, Gößling Reisemann et al /14

9 2. Vulnerability assessment- Preliminary Findings (Current) regional energy supply system is well equipped for: Current regional energy supply system is not well equipped for: handling most foreseeable and continuous climate impacts handling known disturbances and uncertainties including predictable events in their planning surprises, including massive extreme events (e.g. flooding) non-quantifiable uncertainties /yet unknown disturbances handling local /regional conflicts (especially land + resource use) large scale restructuring (e.g. transition to decentralized system) S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Gabriel et al. 2010, Wachsmuth et al. 2013, Gößling Reisemann et al /14

10 3. Innovation Potential Analysis (IPA) 1.Region 2.Cluster 3.Field of Innovation 4. Innovation Candidates Cluster food industry Cluster Logistics Cluster Energy 1.Field of Innovation 2.Field of Innovation Cluster Governance Low Exergy Solutions District heating & Heat driven chiller cooling Mobile heat Resilient Energy Infrastructures Pump storage Organic-Rankine- Cycle plants Methane- + Hydrogen storage Electro mobility Li.-Ion Battery Virtual power plant Demand Side Management Biogas - Rusitec About 28 Candidates were investigated in 2 Technology Screenings Each assessed within 4 Criteria Groups (in total 15 indicators) S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Fichter et al. 2010, Clausen et al /14

11 4. Implementation of Lighthouse projects - What we need to create a resilient energy system? Vuln. Ass. (VA) Innov. Poten. (IPA) Guiding Principle System Structures System Abilities System Resources Low Exergy Solutions Geothermal cooling of a data center Low Exergy Solutions Resilient Energy Infrastructures Cooling turkey barns (close energy & material cycles) New type of Biogas plant (using cellulose rich substrates) S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14

12 Low Exergy Solutions FOCUS: Geothermal cooling of a data center I Need for adaptation? Perspective: Energy supply High grid loads, due to increasing integration of renewables Waste heat potentials often unused Higher risk for blackouts during heat waves, if cooling demand increases (compression cooling - electr. driven Technology) Perspective: data center High Energy demand for cooling of data center (+ 50 to 150% of servers electric capacity) & high costs Increasing Temperatures & Heat waves Demand for high reliability (TIER 4 Standard) Increasing interest in green IT concepts S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14

13 Low Exergy Solutions FOCUS: Geothermal cooling of a data center II Idea: using natural heat sinks for cooling to decrease peak loads in summer Build a redundant cooling system Combine new & standard technologies Increases Resilience by e.g: Increased diversity of used cooling technologies By switching to alternative cooling strategies -> decreasing peak load Implementation: combination of a free cooler with geothermal probes and integral wells Status: test drilling (200m) and simulation completed Planning process and contracting in final stage Authorization process started Finalization until autumn 2013 S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Additional Benefits: High efficiency Lower C02 Emissions Low-maintenance costs High reliability Optional: Use heat pumps to store heat into the ground + using it for heating/cooling buildings around the data center 13/14

14 Conclusion & Open questions Climate adaptation is only a weak motive for innovation Innovation is dependent on motivation of stakeholders and regional situation Who found who? Relation between personal agenda of stakeholders & science Implementation of innovative candidates is difficult to systemize How to weigh different resilience demands (e.g. heat vs. electricity) against each other and against other political constraints? How to deal with a partly unsolvable contradiction: Increase in Resilience needs a minimum of e.g. redundancy, buffer and decentralization -> decreases efficiency? S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May /14

15 Thank you for your attention! Sönke Stührmann S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May 2013 Source: Vision 2050 fu r einen klimaangepassten und resilienten Raum der Metropolregion Bremen-Oldenburg im Nordwestens,

16 Literature Brand, Fridolin (2005): Ecological resilience and its relevance within a theory of sustainable development. Leipzig: UFZ Centre for Environmental Research Chaudry, M., Ekins, P., Ramachandran, K., Shakoor, A., Strbac, G., Wang, X., & Whitaker, J. (2011). Building a Resilient UK Energy System Research Report, (April). Gleich, Arnim von, Stefan Gößling-Reisemann, Sönke Stührmann, Peer Woizeschke, and Birgitt Lutz-Kunisch. Resilienz Als Leitkonzept - Vulnarbailität Als Analytische Kategorie. In Theoretische Grundlagen Für Erfolgreiche Klimaanpassungsstrategien, edited by Klaus Fichter, Arnim Von Gleich, Reinhard Pfriem, and Bernd Siebenhüner, Bremen: Projektkonsortium nordwest2050, Holling, C.S. (1996): Engineering resilience vs. ecological resilience. In: Schulze, Peter C. (Hg.): Engineering within ecological constraints. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press, S Holling, C. S.; Gunderson L. H. (2002). Resilience and Adaptive Cycles, in: Gunderson, Lance H.; Holling, Crawford S. (2002): Panarchy. Understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Washington: Island Press Gößling-Reisemann, S., & Stührmann, S. (2012). Klimawandel und Vulnerabilität der Energieversorgungssysteme im Nordwesten Deutschlands Systematische Analyse unter Unsicherheit. In M. Decker, A. Grundwald, & M. Knapp (Eds.), Der Systemblick auf Innovationen - Technikfolgenabschätzung in der Technikgestaltung (pp ). Berlin: edition sigma. Stührmann, S., Gleich, A. von, Brand, U., & Gößling-Reisemann, S. (2012). Mit dem Leitkonzept Resilienz auf dem Weg zu resilienteren Energieinfrastrukturen. In M. Decker, A. Grundwald, & M. Knapp (Eds.), Der Systemblick auf Innovationen - Technikfolgenabschätzung in der Technikgestaltung ( pp ). Berlin: edition sigma. Chaudry, M., Ekins, P., Ramachandran, K., Shakoor, A., Strbac, G., Wang, X., & Whitaker, J. (2011). Building a Resilient UK Energy System Research Report, (April). Wardekker, J. A., De Jong, A., Knoop, J. M., & Van der Sluijs, J. P. (2010). Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), doi: /j.techfore Fichter et al. 2010: Leitfaden Innovationspotenzialanalyse, Werkstattbericht, Gößling-Reisemann, S., Gleich, A. von, Stührmann, S., & Wachsmuth, J. (2013). Climate change and structural vulnerability of a metropolitan energy supply system the case of Bremen-Oldenburg in Northwest Germany. Journal of Industrial Ecology.(accepted, forthcoming) Gabriel, J.; Meyer, S. 2010: nordwest 2050 Perspektiven für klimaangepasste Innovationsprozesse in der Metropolregion Bremen- Oldenburg. Eine Vulnerabilitätsbezogene Wertschöpfungskettenanalyse für ausgewählte Wertschöpfungsketten im Cluster Energiewirtschaft, Bremer Energie Institut. S. Stührmann - CCRR - Dresden, May