Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH

Transcription

1 Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH 1

2 CO 2 Emission [g/km] Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market Development of average CO 2 -emission in Europe Heavy commercial vehicles >6t from today 1965: ~ % Direct injection / Turbo chargers / New transmissions and intercooling : ~973 Introduction of different stages of emission legislation (mainly NO x ) 2014: ~848 ACEA % % Increasing fuel prices, ongoing CO 2 -emission legislation discussions, SCR technology as well as Innovations pushes further consumption reductions Source: lastauto omnibus

3 CO 2 /Greenhouse Gas regulations worldwide* Heavy Commercial Vehicles ~20% 17% 20% ~45% ~20% No regulation Regulation under discussion Regulation effective Expected CO 2 reduction potential until 2020 compared to 2005 ~35% ~25% Target Commitment Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2011, FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1 and FCCC/SB/2011/INF.1/Rev.1 CO 2 / Greenhouse Gas Regulations for heavy-duty trucks and buses start to spread worldwide Different to car CO 2 -emission regulations, the limits in the Asian countries are stricter than for EU/US. *Bubble size equates to relative market volume 3

4 Fuel/CO 2 efficiency Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market 35,0% Vehicle measures for CO 2 reduction in Europe 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% ACEA Vision % 0.5% 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 7.5% 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 5.0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% // EGR: Exhaust Gas Recirculation / FIE: Fuel Injection Equipment / PPC: Predictive Power train Control / DCT: Double Clutch Transmission / HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle / WHR: Waste Heat Recovery // Source: BOSCH / CO 2 picture: Verivox Additional CO 2 -reductions require further power train measures 4 Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.

5 Model to simulate the diffusion of CO 2 -technologies in the market Use cases: Longhaul HD Distributor Lower Construction Garbage Coach Distributor City Bus Technologies: Customer: Simulation model Results Construction Industry Logistic Industry Consumer goods Industry Municipality - Public transportation - Waste management Quelle: BOSCH

6 Causal loop diagrams can reveal the complexity as well as interdependency of stake holders in the CV market Technical Market volume Interest of gas regulation CNG cruide oil industry Technical Amortisation costs Return-to-base regulation LNG DVP Number of existing gas station Interest gas station Number of Investment owner return-to-base vehicles area-covering Willingness to invest Market volatility infrastructure in infrastructure Technical know-how National infrastructure infrastructure construction availability infrastructure natural gas provider Pipline long-haulage infrastructure Stable political/ Infrastructure infrastructure alternative powertrains market conditions company owned Capacity of gas Corporate social market Local infrastructure infrastructure station/ infrastructure responsibility Fuel consumption availability Pipline pressure Profitability of Overhead Engagement level Amortisation infrastructure New business models in (electrical) line customer Market volume inrastructure investment investment transportation business natural gas Existing pipeline Battery capacity Cooperation customer/ Infrastructure network Training subsidies energy provider Availability "Stand alone" gas Overcapacity Transparency of station Cooperation natrual Battery weight CNG gas provider/ OEM Economical fuel prices Power/ torque of Battery cost uncertainty natural gas engines Battery loading On-side refilling Customer HUB construction Uncertainty time Security of Reduction of subsidies e.g. tax capabilities acceptance Fleet homogenity Comparability/ price demand Urban DVP dependency on cruide Preference for Electrification declaration of natrual gas oil dominant design auxiliaries Variety of technologies LongDistance Electrification Battery rediness Fuel diversification Emission free cities DVP powertrain level Gas station density Fleet size Service and Periode of usage Service training maintenance cost Technical / car old vehicles effort uncertainty concepts User know-how on-site reffilling station Service effort Energy density Effort to apply for On-site refilling Uncertainty natural gas Infrastructure Costs Factor cost Technicalsubsidies Familiarity Fuel price Diesel Driver Refilling effort Kind of Transportation ExtraUrban DVP transportation Number of pilot EU infrastructure Personal cost business projects Refilling time Driver assistance Fuel price natural subsidies Request of Fuel price Amortisation time gas Predictive Powertrain systems subsidies Number of cars per TCO Buying decision Control (PPC) Combustion Availability Transportation gas pump efficiency Tank volume technologies availability LNG efficiency Market volume natrual gas Waste Heat maturity level Aerodynamic engines passenger cars R&D subsidies Recovery (WHR) subsidies messures Lightweighting Subsidies Period of usage Range availability CNG Telematic-/ early error Customer demand Alternative Competition OEM detection service Availability of energy/ Competition Willingness to select technology availability Local subsidies raw material Driving profil Infrastructure cost powertrain Knowledge about transportation business availability technologies National subsidies DVP E-Connectivity Fuel/ CO2 savings Autonomous Quality and reliability driving Political technology Conventional Technological technology availability Willingness to Competition of delivery Market share Costs of openess research customer power trains awareness OEM cooperation Well-to-wheel Noise emission Technological Cooperation energy savings E-mobility regulation development/ engine supplier Well-to-wheel Willingness to Financial capabilities "Green logistics" concepts emissions cooperate user External Service city government Tour mangement/ Entry restriction Component cost Vehicle loading alternative vehicles Engine efficiency KnowHow customer planing volume Usefulness meassures OEM presence in Awareness CO2 Number of cars Harmonisation segments Pioneering spirit Vehicle loading within city center customer Relevance Noise Investment costs/ capacity Bidding process price sensitivity Global spread of Urbanisation development time Number of regulation R&D expenses vehicles Particulate matter Market Market volume OEM Environmental zone/ Politics transparency Political interest technologies Political regulation Governmental Additional weight vehicle labeling Vehicle loading PC/ LCV subsidy program weight alternative technology utilization regulation "Green Image" attractiveness Toxic emission Transport volume Local restrictions rediness level Reliability/ durability OEM size of technologies Exhaust gas Personal attitude Installation space technologies OEM OEM margin Number of empty emission/ Euro6 CO2-oriented CO2-regulation decision maker drives Price stability Relevance toxis taxiation Saving potential Modular concepts emissions Interest local/ city Qualification Infrastructure problems technologies e.g. congestion government Innovativeness Usage of platforms employee OEM OEM Attractivity OEM R&D of over segments Air quality Society's pressure/ budget development Energy tax Trade margin regulation "Green Image" Achievement of Natural gas engine society objectives OEM Profitability OEM Reference concepts technology Road tolls and "Green Image" charges meassures Procurement of Interest European OEM Attractiveness of Union CO2-Limits components Additional cost of market position OEM Political decision Cooperation OEM/ Marketing alternative power trains making process Lobbying local government expenses OEM OEM Interest Local interest of OEM brand Expactation of members of the EU diversification Public OEM European climate Global market transportation Technological Personal background of politics penetration Life time engines complexity EU commissioner Compatibility Responsibility infrastructure Market penetration CO2-targets alternative powertrains Cruide oil price Exemplary characteristics out of expert interviews: Customer demand: e.g. Habit, Reliability, Charging station, E- Mobility, E-Connectivity, Driver assistance systems Politics: e.g. Emission free cities, Subsidies, CO 2 - Reduction, Fuel taxation : e.g. Constructed size, OEM-size, Level of maturity, Market volume Infrastructure: e.g. Emerging markets, Margin per fuel- / Charging-station, Payback period, Investment cost & incentive 6 Quelle: BOSCH-Seitz

7 Scenarios of CO 2 -technology penetration until 2030* Long-haul City Bus Total HCV market 4% 12% 9% 75% 14% 10% 9% 67% 19% 4% 27% 50% 48% 4% 18% 30% 4% 8% 6% 12% 70% 19% 6% 15% 10% 50% Electric PT Diesel WHR Gas Diesel Hybrid Diesel Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 * European heavy commercial vehicle market including advanced power train technologies and vehicle efficiency packages CO 2 -technology penetration strongly depends on respective use case Source: BOSCH internal PT-Simulation 7

8 Summary The CO 2 -technology penetration rate depends from different use cases and emission legislations For CO 2 -reduction beyond 2020 further power train measures are necessary The era of pure diesel power trains is far from being over, but in certain commercial vehicle use cases its dominance will decline 8 Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.

9 Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH 9