ADVANCED STRESS TESTING

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1 SYDNEY 15 & 16 SEPTEMBER 2008 T R A I N I N G ADVANCED STRESS TESTING Course Highlights: Course Tutors: Efficiently analysing, reporting and communicating stress test results The problem with haircuts Steps towards best practice analytics Stress-testing portfolio risk model assumptions Economic capital models and how to stress them Impact of stress testing on expected loss and capital Where to next from Basel II? Stress testing as part of the business management plan Frank Ashe Associate Professor at the Centre for Applied Finance MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY Anthony Carolan Senior Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Enterprise Risk Analytics WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION Clayton Joyce Manager, Stress Testing Portfolio Management & Models HBOS AUSTRALIA Andrew Santone Market Risk Manager, ABN AMRO Patrick Winsbury Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE Mark Young Director, Banking Risk Management PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS Who Should Attend? This course is relevant to executives working in credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk and also those involved in operational risk, risk analysis, and financial modeling. It is particularly useful to: Credit analysts Credit risk managers/heads Market risk managers/heads Liquidity risk managers/heads Portfolio analysts Quantitative analysts and researchers Risk analysts Risk managers Risk researchers and developers Risk modellers Chief risk officers

2 ADVANCED STRESS TESTING T R A I N I N G TRAINING Sydney 15 & 16 September, 2008 ABOUT THE COURSE A continuing turbulence in the global financial sector has brought to light the serious need for more adequate stress testing. 'This, coupled with the pressure for stress testing requirements set by Basel II, has meant that effective stress testing is imperative in any financial institution's risk management framework. Many managers recognise that stress tests themselves should be dynamic such that they consider new scenarios as business conditions evolve yet still be stable enough to provide firms with a useful gauge for monitoring the evolution of their risk profile over time. In light of recent events, most firms in the survey found problems in certain features of their stress tests or with the stress tests of particular products, and many firms indicated that they planned to make specific changes in the design and implementation of stress tests. (Senior Supervisors Group report on Observations on Risk Management Practices during the Recent Market Turbulence 6th March 2008). This timely training course will look at developing a clear path for your stress testing framework, and, how to execute that amongst the challenges from the whole business model. The current regulatory requirements will be critically analysed through differing stages of implementation. Through practical case studies and interactive Q&A sessions this training course aims to provide straightforward platforms to benchmark and share different industry practices. LEARNING OUTCOMES By the end of this course delegates will be able to: Develop a credit risk stress testing framework Understand the different stress testing approaches taken by various banks Manage stress testing across the whole business Interpret and use stress testing results to make business decisions FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR TO REGISTER YOUR PLACE CALL the registration hotline on / BOOK online via

3 ADVANCED STRESS TESTING DAY ONE MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER Coffee and registration 9.00 WHAT IS STRESS TESTING AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS? Why stress test: Risk concentrations, large exposures Model weaknesses Interaction between credit, market, liquidity and operational risks Types of stress methodologies - their objectives and pitfalls: Historical events Mechanical (factor push, constrained loss optimisation, monte carlo methods) Hypothetical Prospective tests Scenario analysis and actions: How to efficiently analyse, report and communicate on the stress test results Communication challenges with top management and regulators Contingency planning Andrew Santone Market Risk Manager ABN AMRO Morning break CREDIT RISK STRESS TESTING - QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES Stress testing frameworks and techniques Macro variables approach Portfolio credit modelling approach Direct perturbation of risk parameters approach Impact of stress testing on expected loss and capital Anthony Carolan Senior Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Enterprise Risk Analytics WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION Lunch STRESS TESTING WITHIN LIQUIDITY RISK Stress testing based on publicly available data The problem with haircuts Anticipating regulatory action Lessons learned from the liquidity crisis Patrick Winsbury Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE Afternoon break STRESS TESTING WITHIN THE ECONOMIC CAPITAL MODEL How can your portfolio cope with different levels of stress? Economic capital models and how to stress them Implication of Basel accord specifics: latest thinking and techniques How to asses economic capital requirements with interest rate sensitivity Mark Young Director, Banking Risk Management PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS End of day one

4 SYDNEY 15 & 16 SEPTEMBER 2008 DAY TWO TUESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER Registration and coffee 9.00 CASE STUDY:ATTUNING STRESS TESTING SPECIFICALLY TO YOUR INDIVIDUAL ORGANISATION What historical scenarios to use? What should the parameters be? 70 years of benign conditions How prepared are you? What does the perfect storm look like? Attuning stress testing specific to your individual organisation Developing quantitative data for integrated risk stress testing Speaker to be advised please see website for updates Morning break APPLICATION OF STRESS TESTING FROM THE SENIOR SUPERVISORS GROUP REPORT: OBSERVATIONS ON RISK MANAGEMENT Differences between banks Identification of risks and their possible effect Senior management involvement Business unit acceptance Supervisory response Frank Ashe Associate Professor at the Centre for Applied Finance MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY Lunch USING STRESS TESTING RESULTS - BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF STRESS TESTING Impact of stress testing on performance management How to understand models and assumptions Stress testing as part of the business management plan Expert judgment vs analytics Use and interpretation of stress testing results Clayton Joyce Manager, Stress Testing Portfolio Management & Models HBOS AUSTRALIA Afternoon break CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS Current market practices of stress testing amongst top financial institutions Specific issues to address in the Australasia context The regulatory environment Local regulators interpretations of pillar 2 of the Basel accord Implementation best practices Where to next from Basel II? Mark Young Director, Banking Risk Management PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS End of course IN-HOUSE and ONLINE TRAINING Would you like to know more about e-learning and tailored in-house training for this subject? For further details of our full-service in-house and online training solutions tailored to meet your exact needs, please contact Mary-anne Edmunds, Financial Training Solutions, CIFT. Tel: , CIFT is the specialist Financial In-house and E-learning Company of Incisive Media

5 TUTOR BIOGRAPHIES Frank Ashe, Associate Professor at the Centre for Applied Finance, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY Dr. Frank Ashe has a consulting practice specialising in risk management, investments and comparative corporate governance. He maintains a part-time Associate Professorship at the Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre where he is responsible for the Financial Risk Management course. Prior to 2002, Dr. Ashe has worked in Australia and Canada with consultancies, insurance companies, investment management firms, bond dealers, and financial software houses. His 25+ years of practical experience have been predominantly in the measurement and management of financial risk and return, with an emphasis on asset-liability management, and developing risk measurement and management tools for novel situations. He is a regular presenter at industry seminars and colloquia, and is currently President of the Australian Q-Group. He regularly travels throughout East Asia, teaching financial risk management in Beijing, Singapore and Tokyo. Anthony Carolan, Senior Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Enterprise Risk Analytics, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION Anthony Carolan has PhD in applied statistics. He is a Senior Manager in the Enterprise Risk Analytics team at Westpac with seven years practical experience in quantitative credit risk modelling. He has been involved in the development of stress testing models covering a number of credit portfolios throughout the bank. Clayton Joyce, Manager, Stress Testing Portfolio Management & Models, HBOS AUSTRALIA Clayton Joyce is Manager of Stress Testing within Portfolio Management & Models for HBOS Australia. Clayton is responsible for the central development and management of stress testing for the organisation focusing on credit risk. Holding a Masters in Information Management and Systems, Clayton previously worked for management consultancy firms Charter Wilson and Simsion Bowles & Associates. Andrew Santone, Market Risk Manager, ABN AMRO Andrew, started work at ABN AMRO (Copenhagen Office) in 1996 and moved to head up their market risk management function in 1997 for Denmark and Norway. He transferred to Head office to head up market risk management for the banks Treasury area. Late 2002 transferred to Sydney to head up Trading Risk Management for AUST and NZ along with Asia for exotic products. Patrick Winsbury, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group, MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE Patrick Winsbury is a Senior Vice President with Moody s Financial Institutions Group, based in Sydney. He covers banks in Australia and New Zealand. He joined Moody s FIG Group in 1997 and has been stationed in Asia and US. Mark Young, Director, Banking Risk Management, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS Mark is a Director at PricewaterhouseCoopers in their Banking Risk Management. He is a subject matter expert in credit, market and operational risk modelling as well as the development of regulatory and economic capital frameworks and risk-adjusted performance systems for Banks and Banc Assurers. Prior to joining the firm Mark headed the Basel II project for the Australian subsidiary of a Dutch banking and assurance group. Previous to that he headed the Economic Capital and Portfolio Management functions of major Australia Banking, Insurance and Funds Management leader and headed their Economic Capital and Portfolio Management functions.

6 ADVANCED STRESS TESTING Code: T R A I N I N G TRAINING Sydney 15 & 16 September, 2008 T O R E G I S T E R Asia-Pacific Office By mail Conference Administration, Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd., 20/F, Tower 2, Admiralty Centre, 18 Harcourt Road Admiralty, Hong Kong By tel By fax to By London Office By mail Conference Administration, Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd., Haymarket House, Haymarket, London SW1Y 4RX, UK By tel +44 (0) By fax +44 (0) Book online*: Please do not cover this box as it contains important marketing information Registration details * Book and pay online and get a 35/$50 discount! Visit the Incisive Financial Publishing web site for an update on our forthcoming conferences and courses and for information on our magazines and books at Please tick the relevant box I AM A PAID SUBSCRIBER TO RISK / ASIA RISK MAGAZINE AND WOULD LIKE TO CLAIM A DISCOUNT OF 20% (Cannot be combined with any other discounts) My subscription reference is Early Bird Discount After before 31 July July 2008 SYDNEY US$2,379 US$2,799 Your registration fee includes breakfast, lunch and refreshments, where available pre course reading and your documentation pack. Book online or fax the completed form with your credit card details, or follow up the provisional reservation with a cheque made payable to Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd. In order that we process your registration with maximum efficiency, we request that a copy of this booking form accompanies your payment. Please complete the form below in BLOCK CAPITALS. For more than 3 delegates bookings, please contact Customer Services to discuss a group discount on Please note: Your payment must be received prior to attendance. PLEASE COMPLETE THE FORM BELOW IN BLOCK CAPITALS TITLE FIRST NAME FAMILY NAME JOB TITLE / POSITION DEPARTMENT COMPANY COMPANY TYPE ADDRESS CITY POST/ZIPCODE COUNTRY STATE TEL DIRECT TEL MAIN SWITCHBOARD FAX APPROVING MANAGER Payment Details I enclose a cheque payable to Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd. Payment is required prior to the event. A pro-forma invoice will be forwarded to you automatically should you not provide payment details with your booking. Please debit my VISA AMEX MAESTRO Issue No: MASTERCARD DINERS CLUB Valid from date: ACCOUNT ADDRESS IF DIFFERENT FROM ABOVE: 4228/08 Card No. Expiry date: SIGNATURE: DATE: Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd. VAT No: GB For companies in EU member states only: Please write your VAT/TVA/BTW/IVA/ MCMS/MWST/FPA number here We accept company cheques, credit cards and bank transfers. Please allow a minimum of seven working days for a bank transfer to reach us and phone or fax us when it has been sent. Please state the event name and delegate name to which it relates. Venue LUXURY VENUE TO BE CONFIRMED Please check the course website for updates Warning: Risk / Asia Risk Magazine is a registered trademark, and the title, contents and style of this brochure are the copyright of Incisive Media. We will act on any infringement of our rights anywhere in the world. Incisive Media. Cancellation: A refund (less 10% administration fee) will be made if notice of cancellation is received in writing three weeks before the event. We regret that no refunds can be given after this period. A substitute delegate is always welcome at no extra charge. Disclaimer: The programme may change due to unforeseen circumstances, and Incisive Media reserves the right to alter the venue and/or speakers. Incisive Media accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage to property belonging to, nor for any personal injury incurred by, attendees at our conferences, whether within the conference venue or otherwise. *All discounts must be redeemed when booking, discounts will not be valid or applied after this time. Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd reserve the right to decline any discount offers and this offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. Incorrect mailing, data protection: If any of the details on the mailing label are incorrect, please return the brochure to our database administrator at Incisive Media so that we can update our records and ensure that future mailings are correct. Please find our mailing address and fax details above. 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