U.S. Dedicated Internet Access Services Market Update N88E-63 February 2011

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1 U.S. Dedicated Internet Access Services Market Update 2010 February 2011

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 7-9 Research Scope and Definitions 10 Market Overview and Trends Analysis Total Market Revenues Forecasts Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market Revenues Forecasts and Pricing Analysis Wholesale DIA/High-speed IP Transit Services Market Revenue Forecasts and Pricing Analysis Competitive Analysis and Market Share Analysis About Frost & Sullivan

3 List of Figures Total DIA Services Market: Market Spending Overview (U.S.), 2010 and Total DIA Services Market: Impact of Top Industry Challenges (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Market Drivers Ranked in Order of Impact (U.S.), Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Average MRC by Port Speed (U.S.) Wholesale DIA/High-speed IP Transit Services Market: Average Per MB Price by Port Speed (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: Competitive Structure (U. S.), Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Comparison of Common SLAs for Leading Service Providers (U.S.),

4 List of Charts Total DIA Services Market: Market Engineering Measurements (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Revenue Forecasts (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Revenue Forecasts Comparison by 2009 Study vs Study (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Revenue Split by Wholesale vs. Retail (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Revenue Split by Service Type (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: T1 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: T3 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: OC-3 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: OC-12 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: OC-48 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: OC-192 Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: 10M Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: 100M Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: 1G Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Total DIA Services Market: 10G Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Revenue Forecasts Comparison by 2009 Study vs Study (U.S.), Wholesale DIA/High-speed IP Transit Services Market: Revenue Forecasts (U.S.) Wholesale DIA /High-speed IP Transit Services Market: Revenue Forecasts Comparison by 2009 Study vs Study (U.S.), Total DIA Services Market: Market Share Analysis (U. S.), Total DIA Services Market: Market Share Comparison (U.S.), 2008 and Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Market Share Analysis (U. S.), Retail/Enterprise DIA Services Market: Market Share Comparison (U.S.), 2008 and Wholesale DIA/High-speed IP Transit Services Market: Market Share Analysis (U. S.), Wholesale DIA/High-speed IP Transit Services Market: Market Share Comparison (U.S.), 2008 and

5 Executive Summary 7

6 Executive Summary The U.S. Dedicated Internet Access (DIA) services market has gone through some interesting changes in the past 2 years. Both retail (DIA) and wholesale (high-speed IP transit) market segments experienced negative year over year growth rate from 2008 to 2009, primarily due to the economic downturn. The market revenues did rebound modestly in 2010, with the retail market recovering faster than the wholesale market. In the retail DIA services market, demand for traditional services such as T1/T3 and SONET is declining, but the growing demand for Ethernet services for enterprise bandwidth requirements is sustaining the market growth. Also, the increased focus on value-added services to manage revenue decline resulting from selling pure bandwidth has helped the market sustain revenue growth. VoIP (CPE/network-based), IP VPN, and managed security services are some of the value-added services being offered along with DIA. The demand for high-speed IP transit services or wholesale DIA services is largely driven by the growth in bandwidth consumption by the consumer broadband market particularly video applications. However, pricing pressure in the wholesale market has clearly led to reduced revenues overall. Frost & Sullivan expects the total DIA services market to sustain year-over-year growth rates between x and x percent from 2010 to The growth in revenues will come primarily from the retail DIA services market as enterprises continue to invest in high-speed Internet services to run business applications: data center connectivity, contact center solutions, data back-up and recovery, VoIP, cloud-based services and others. Although most of these applications are typical drivers for adoption of private IP networks, the cost competitiveness of the DIA service serves as a key reason for its adoption by enterprises. 8

7 Executive Summary (Contd ) Total DIA Services Market: Market Spending Overview (U.S.), 2010 and 2015 Measurement Name Measurement Trend Total Dedicated Internet Access Market Revenues Base Year Revenues (2010) Potential Revenues (2015) Base Year Revenue Growth Rate Forecast Year Market Revenue Growth Rate Wholesale Market Revenues Base Year Revenues (2010) Potential Revenues (2015) Base Year Revenue Growth Rate Forecast Year Market Revenue Growth Rate Retail Market Revenues Base Year Revenues (2010) Potential Revenues (2015) Base Year Revenue Growth Rate Up Forecast Year Market Revenue Growth Rate Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 9

8 Research Scope and Definitions Dedicated Internet access services, as defined in this study, comprises all TDM, SONET and Ethernet access services including DS1, DS3, OC3, OC12, OC48, 10 Mbps Ethernet, xxx Mbps Ethernet and 1 GigE. Dedicated internet access is referred to as DIA throughout the study. Excluded from the study is DSL, which is no longer classified within business dedicated Internet access services by the majority of the service providers. The wholesale portion of DIA is also commonly referred to as high-speed IP transit services in the industry. This is referred to as wholesale DIA in this study. The research study covers the U.S. market for Dedicated Internet Access services through the period 2008 to The analysis in the study includes retail (sales to enterprises) versus wholesale (sales to service providers) revenues, and percentage breakouts of revenues by service type. Additionally, this study provides market share analysis based on revenues for the U.S. Dedicated Internet Access services market only. Revenues considered for this research include revenues recognized by service providers from all types of dedicated Internet access services as described in the preceding paragraph. Within this analysis, Frost & Sullivan has also identified the industry challenges, market drivers, and market trends and presented details of the competitive landscape for dedicated Internet access services. High-level information on pricing trends is also included in the research. Overall, this research service leverages both secondary and primary research carried out by Frost & Sullivan and provides communications service providers with a quantitative and qualitative analysis of this evolving marketplace. Frost & Sullivan conducted interviews with executives from the major service providers and key regional service providers of dedicated Internet access. The interviews focused on discussion around industry trends and specific business strategies for both the wholesale and retail DIA markets. Internal Frost & Sullivan market estimates were compared with the interview data and publicly available financial data. 10

9 Market Overview and Trends Analysis 11

10 Market Engineering Measurements (U.S.), 2010 Total DIA Services Market: Market Engineering Measurements (U.S.), 2010 Measurement Name Measurement Trend Market age Growth Increasing Revenues (2010) Potential revenues (2015) Base year market growth rate (2010) Forecast period market growth rate (CAGR) Price sensitivity Customer demographics (product site number and types) Competitors (active market competitors in base year) Retail DIA Medium IP Transit High Retail Medium & Large Enterprises across verticals Wholesale ISPs, Content Providers, International Carriers Wholesale xx+ Retail xx+ Degree of competition Degree of technical change Customer satisfaction Market concentration (percent of base year market controlled by top four competitors) xxxx xxxxxx x xx percent Decreasing Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 12

11 Market Engineering Measurements (U.S.), 2010 (Contd ) These measurements are designed to assist in the strategic decision making process. Market age is an indication of where the market is in its lifecycle. Market age typically consists of four stages, namely introductory, growth, maturity, and decline/end of lifecycle. The U.S. Dedicated Internet Access services market should be considered a growth market at this stage. Although traditional services such as T1/T3 and SONET are maturing, the growing demand for Ethernet services for enterprise bandwidth requirements is sustaining the market growth rate. Frost & Sullivan s research also indicates a greater adoption of managed/value added services including managed security services, managed router, and addition of VoIP services which is contributing to revenue growth. Revenues for this market, including both retail and wholesale segments, are estimated to be in Revenues are expected to reach in Market revenues from legacy services such as T1/T3 and SONET still constitute a significant portion of the total market revenues in 2010, but are expected to decline over the next 5 years. Businesses of all sizes are considering migration to Ethernet applications to increase bandwidth for an equal or lower price. Price sensitivity was medium in 2010, owing largely to market domination by a handful of Tier 1 carriers. The degree of competition is medium but is expected to increase, as Tier 2 service providers in the market continue expanding Ethernet access to their network. As competitive carriers focus on Ethernet services the traditional services base will start to erode. Customer satisfaction among providers of DIA services is medium and continues to improve as service providers incorporate value-added services in their overall offerings. Service providers are using longer-term contracts, improved reliability, as well as better SLAs and bundled offerings to retain customers for a longer period of time. The market concentration (as a percent of the base year market controlled by the top four competitors in 2010) was at x. 13

12 Industry Challenges Total DIA Services Market: Impact of Top Industry Challenges (U.S.), Challenge 1-2 Years 3-4 Years 5 Years Price Erosion and Lower Commit Rates Reduce Overall Wholesale Market Revenues High Service Providers Find It Challenging To Differentiate Their Dedicated Internet Access Offerings Low Economic Downturn Has Impacted Multiple Components of the Sale Cycles Low Service Providers Struggle with Revenue Cannibalization of Legacy System Low Source: Frost & Sullivan 14

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