Internet Dagarna 2000

Transcription

1 Internet Dagarna 2000 October 24th , Cisco Systems, Inc. 1

2 Dennis Davidsson Director Market Development Public Carrier IP Group 2

3 What s Driving the Demand? 3 How How How Many Many Many of of of You You You Have Have Have Seen Seen Seen This This This Chart Chart Chart???

4 What s Driving the Demand? Data Voice 4

5 What s Driving the Demand? Internet 5

6 A Few Facts and Figures Internet 36,700,000 Hosts 71,618 Newsgroups 300,000,000 Web Sites 300,000 Hosts 1,000 Newsgroups 0 5,000 Hosts 241 Newsgroups Government and Academia Commercialization Mosaic/WWW

7 A Little Closer to Home... 7 How How How Many Many Many s s s Did Did Did You You You Receive Receive Receive Years Years Years Ago Ago Ago???

8 Increasing Volume... Received per Day 10 Years Ago Years Ago Today

9 Increasing Payloads... Received per Day Average Size 10 Years Ago 5 Years Ago Today KB 1 5 KB 10 KB 20 MB 9

10 Increasing Challenge! Received per Day Average Size Totals 10 Years Ago Years Ago 1 20 Today KB 1 5 KB 100 KB 2 MB 0-2 KB KB MB 10

11 Surprising Statistics IBM stops selling PCs in retail outlets 33% of medical conditions are researched on web ebay accounts for 10% of US Postal Service small package volume! Fed Ex would need 20,000 customer service employees to replace its online services (InformationWeek 10/99) 10 Million people are using Dialpad to make free, long-distance calls in USA 11

12 Bandwidth / Line Rates Kbit/s bits/s Mbit/s bits/s Gbit/s bits/s Tbit/s bits/s 1 Tbit/s = K users 12

13 U.S. Network Capacity Carrying capacity explodes by more than 8,000% Level 3 Frontier Qwest GTE (Qwest fiber) IXC Williams Sprint MCI WorldCom AT&T 1.2 terabits/second 21.7 terabits/second Total Bandwidth: 99.8 terabits/second Fortune Magazine 13

14 Internet Growth Drives The Timing of IP Trunk Capacity x OC192c Mbps x OC192c Tier 1 ISP x OC48c 16 x OC48c 0 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03

15 Innovation Is Driving Cost of Networking Down Bandwidth Cost ($/Mbit/s) Line and Network Speeds (Gbit/s) 155M 1000 Optical (WDM) 100 TDM M 1 2,5G Routers/Switches 10G Year Year Source: Ryan, Hankin and Kent and Internal Data 15

16 Market Trends Fiber everywhere Decreasing costs of bandwidth Optical infrastructure New services 16

17 SP Market Conditions Service provider market is highly competitive and dynamic Service differentiation and cost of delivering the services key to survival and growth Requirements for highly scalable, cost-effective, flexible network 17

18 SP Competition in Europe 1990 Fixed Networks < 70 Mobile/Wireless < 30 ISPs 0 IP Telephony 0 Global Networks < 10 Total < > 1,200 > 150 > 2,500 > 50 > 20 > 4,000 18

19 What runs over the Internet? File Transfer 4% UDP 4% Mail 2% Other 15% WWW 75% Source: Electronicast, Internal Analysis 19

20 And, the winner is. Other 10% % of WAN Traffic Other 35% IP 20% SNA 45% IP 80% SNA 10% Source: Gartner Group

21 Infrastructure Rigid structure yields high cost per bit Lower-margin services disfavor new investment Customer Premise Local CO Interexchange Local CO Customer Premise Class 5 Switch DS0 Class 4 Switch DS0 Class 4 Switch DS0 Class 5 Switch DS0 DS1 DS1 DS1 DS1 DS0 3/1 DACS 3/1 DACS DS0 DS1 DS3 SONET ADM DS3 DS3 DS3 DS3 SONET ADM DS3 DS1 OC3/12 OC48 OC48 OC48 OC3/12 21

22 Optical Internetworking Optimized infrastructure for data services Statistical muxing over largest available pipe Flattened network gives a 10x cost reduction Customer Premise Local CO Interexchange Local CO Customer Premise DS1 Ethernet OC-48c ~ OC-48c WDM ~ OC-48c OC-48c Ethernet DS1 22

23 Optical Internetworking Traditional Model Optical Internetworking IP ATM/ FR SONET /SDH Lower equipment cost Lower operational cost Simplified architecture Scalable network capacity IP Router Optical IP Services Big Optical Pipe Optical 23

24 Internet Backbone Evolution Early 1990s IP PPP/HDLC SONET/SDH Fiber IP ATM/FR SONET/SDH Fiber IP POS SONET/SDH Fiber IP POS MPLS DWDM Fiber IP POS DPT MPLS OXC DWDM Fiber ATM POS 622Mbps DWDM 2.5Gbps POS DWDM Channels DWDM terminals Internet backbones have evolved to keep up with the explosive growth and leveraged new technologies Growth has been driven through increased number of users and access speeds PPP Point to Point Protocol POS Packet Over SONET/SDH DWDM Dense Wave Division Multiplexing DPT Dynamic Packet Transport MPLS Multi-Protocol Label Switching OXC Optical Cross Connects. 24

25 POP Evolution Late 1980s Early 1990s Mid 1990s Shared FDDI Ring X POS FDDI Switch X POS Ethernet ATM POS POS Cisco 75XX GSR DPT GSR Cisco 75XX Cisco 75XX Cisco 75XX Cisco 75XX POP architecture has evolved over the past few years to keep up with the explosive growth Number of access ports, speed of access and operational simplicity driving new designs POP consolidation of backbone, optical aggregation and. content aggregation applications 25

26 Broadband DSL, Cable, and Wireless Remote Office, Branch Office DSL Cable Wireless Residential Enterprise Campus Residential V POTS/ PSTN IP/TV TIBCO Internet PSTN Node Node Remote Office, Branch Office 25K HP Dial 250K HP Internet V SS7 V PSTN P2P Hub Fiber Node PBX P2MP KTS 26

27 Broadband Common Network Design EACH TECHNOLOGY NEEDS SPECIAL DESIGN CABLE FEATURE CORE END USER XDSL IP CORE TO EDGE END USER LEASED LINE WIRELESS 27

28 Broadband Future Network Design INTELLIGENT NETWORK DEVICE END USER IP CORE Lower equipment cost Lower operational cost Simplified architecture Scalable network capacity REPLACE EVERY 5TH YEAR END USER 28

29 Optical IP Networks Common Architecture TDM TDM TDM TDM Metro Access Metro Aggregation Backbone Metro Aggregation Metro Access DPT Rings Dark Fiber Using Cisco GSR and Cisco 7500 Point-to-Point POS Over SONET/SDH DWDM or Dark Fiber Using Cisco GSR DPT Rings Dark Fiber Using Cisco GSR and Cisco

30 Basic Elements of the Metro Architecture IP Fiber Ethernet 30

31 A hole in the wall IP 31

32 Thank You! Dennis Davidsson Director Market Development Public Carrier IP Group voice: (408) fax: (408)

33 0642_02F9_c1 1999, Cisco Systems, Inc. 33