North American Broadband Market Update

Transcription

1 Synopsis This report highlights current broadband market conditions, analyzes significant events impacting future development, addresses the outlook for fiber and other alternative access methods, examines the market potential of value-added services, profiles consumer perspectives regarding broadband and valueadded services, and forecasts future growth. Publish Date: Jan 08 Market Share of Leading Broadband Service Providers Market Share of Leading Broadband Service Embarq Providers Cablevision 4% Charter 5% Qwest 5% Cox 7% Time Warner 13% Source: Parks Associates Research 2008 Parks Associates 2% Verizon 13% Other 8% AT&T (Including BellSouth) 21% Comcast 22% Note: AT&T and Verizon's fiber deployments are included in this chart Competition among leading service providers has intensified, with the top four service providers owning more than 70% of the market, said James Kuai, research analyst at Parks Associates. In order to compete with the cable MSOs in the long term, the two major telcos have shifted their focus from low-priced DSL services to fiber deployment, which can lead to better ARPU, higher customer loyalty, an integrated service bundle, and more advanced features. Contents The Bottom Line is a concise, executivelevel summary of the current state of the market, evolutionary path, and the implications for companies doing business in this space. A Parks Associates Resource Book contains a wealth of consumer survey data and company profiles a must-have reference for product/market planning. The Bottom Line 1.0 Notes on Methodology 2.0 The Changing Dynamics of the Broadband Service Market 2.1 Narrowband Market Update the Late Majority 2.2 Broadband Market Overview: U.S. and Canada U.S Canada 2.3 Competitive Dynamics: DSL vs. Cable DSL Cable MSO 2.4 ARPU Analysis 2.5 Bandwidth Cost Analysis 2.6 Regional Differences 3.0 Lessons from the European Broadband Market 4.0 Fiber Deployment: Making Inroads 4.1 Introduction to Technologies: FTTP, FTTN, and FTTC 4.2 Progress Report: Verizon vs. AT&T 4.3 Cable MSOs Fighting Back

2 5.0 Update on Alternative Broadband Technologies 5.1 Broadband Wireless Fixed Broadband Wireless Mobile Broadband Wireless The 700 MHz Auction 5.2 Municipal Wireless Network 5.3 Broadband Over Power Line 5.4 Satellite Broadband 6.0 Key Enabling Technologies 6.1 Fixed Mobile Convergence Technologies 6.2 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) 6.3 Femtocell 6.4 The Growing Importance of Residential Gateways (RGs) 7.0 Tiered Services, Bundled Services, and VAS Services 7.1 Tiered Services 7.2 Bundled Services 7.3 VoIP Services 7.4 Value-added Services Consumer Interest Broadband Entertainment Services Home Networking Services Storage/Backup Services 7.5 The Threat of Over-the-Top Services 8.0 Market Forecasts 9.0 Market Implications and Recommendations Resource Book Section I: Section II: Section III: Growth of Internet Adoption Demographics Analysis of Broadband Households Narrowband-Broadband Migration Section IV: Broadband Satisfaction Analysis Satisfaction Ratings by Providers in the U.S. and Canada Drivers for Satisfaction Section V: Broadband Subscribers Churns: a Detailed Analysis Internet Services: Who Switched and Where They Went A Comparison of Internet and Video Services: Who has Switched Decision Drivers for Switching Service Providers Those Who Plan to Move: Service Choices of Internet, Phone, and Video Those Who Moved: Which Service Provider Did They Call First Section VI: Value-Added Services Broadband Entertainment Home Networking Adoption and Usage of Home Network Home Networking Services from Service Providers Internet Security Online Storage Automated PC Maintenance the Dashboard

3 Section VII: Profiles of Cable Operators Comcast Corporation Time Warner Cable, Inc. Charter Communications, Inc. Cablevision Systems Corp. Cox Communications, Inc. Rogers Communications, Inc. Section VIII: Profiles of Telecom Operators AT&T Inc. Verizon Communications, Inc. Qwest Communications International, Inc. Embarq Clearwire Corporation Sprint Nextel Bell Canada Enterprises, Inc. Telus Figures The Bottom Line Likelihood for Narrowband Users to Upgrade to a Broadband Service Growth (Decline) of Narrowband-Only Households ( ) Subscriber Growth (Loss) of Major Narrowband Service Providers Growth of Cable/DSL Residential Broadband Services (Q to Q3 2007) Market Share of Leading Broadband Service Providers Percentage of Top Four BSP Quarterly Subscriber Gains among Industry-wide Quarterly Gains (Q to Q3 2007) Percentage Breakdown of Total DSL and Cable Broadband (Residential) Subscribers Market Share By Connection Methods in Canada (2007) Major Canadian Broadband Providers Subscriber Growth 2003-Q Introductory Download Speeds from Cable MSOs: 2006 vs 2007 Quarterly Growth Rate of Cable and DSL Residential Broadband Subscribers (%) Broadband Monthly ARPU: Dial-up, DSL, and Cable Broadband ARPU: DSL vs. Cable Service Providers Introductory Bandwidth Cost One MB/month: DSL vs. Cable Cable MSOs Enjoy a Strong Lead in High-Bandwidth Services (December 2006) Penetration of DSL and Cable Broadband among Top Ten Broadband States Availability of DSL and Cable Modem Services among Top Ten Broadband States (Dec. 2006) Percentage of Cable Modem Connections over Total Broadband Connections Growth of European Broadband Penetration Rate per Capita Interest in a Bundled Service Package European FTTx Deployment Plans Growth of Residential Fiber High-Speed Lines (Q Q3 2007) Comparison of Different FTTx Networks PON Technology Summary Households Passed and Connected by Deep Fiber Cable MSOs New Technologies and Standards Cable MSOs Marketing Initiatives in 2007

4 Interest in Mobile Broadband and Monthly Expenditure Willing to Spend by Segments 700 MHz Spectrum Deployment Economics Compared to 1900 MHz and 2400 MHz Large Muni-Wireless Plans Scaling back Notable Utility BPL Deployments in the U.S. Satellite Broadband Services in the U.S. Major Voice-Centric FMC Deployments An IMS Framework IMS Deployments of Major Telecom Vendors Femtocell Network Demonstration Additional Benefits of Femtocells Femtocell Development of Major Vendors Residential Gateways: Broadband Service Providers Broadband Service: Important Factors in Driving Satisfaction Bundled Services: DSL vs. Cable in Subscriber Numbers (Q1/07) Bundled Services: DSL vs. Cable in Percentages Cable MSOs and Their Bundled Services VoIP Services from Major Telecom and Cable Carriers Additional Services Desired for a Service Bundle: Internet-based Services Monthly Fee a Subscriber is willing to Pay for Additional Internet-Based Services Online Entertainment Activities (Q3/2007) Annual U.S. Revenue: Online Content Services (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Home Network Growth Home Network Type (Q3/07) Home Networking Offerings: Telecom and Cable Operators Interest in an Online Storage Solution Forecast of U.S. Broadband Households by Access Methods ( ) Forecast of FTTx and Mobile Wireless Residential Subscribers ( ) Forecast of U.S. Broadband Service Revenue ( ) Resource Book Internet and Broadband Adoption Internet Penetration by Gender Internet Penetration by Age Internet Penetration by Education Upgrade Internet Access (Q1/07) Breakdown of all U.S. Households by Internet Access and Intent to Subscribe (Q1/2007) Broadband and National Demographics: Gender Comparison Broadband Users Among All Age Groups Broadband and National Demographics: Income Comparison Broadband and National Demographics: Education Comparison Likelihood for Narrowband Users to Upgrade to a Broadband Service U.S. Broadband Customers: Rating Satisfaction with Provider Canadian Broadband Customers: Rating Satisfaction with Provider High and Low Satisfaction: U.S. Broadband Carriers High and Low Satisfaction: Canadian Broadband Carriers Broadband Service: Important Factors in Driving Satisfaction (U.S.) Broadband Service: Important Factors in Driving Satisfaction (Canada) Churn by Current Internet Access Method (Q4/06) Churn by Previous Internet Access Method (Q4/06)

5 How Did Voluntary Churners Churn: by Previous Internet Access Method Moving Churners by Previous Access Methods How Did Moving Churners Churn: by Previous Access Method Internet Churn by Current Internet Access Method Video Churn by Current Video Access Method Decision Factors for Switching Internet Service Providers by Previous Access Methods Driving Factors for Switching Internet Service Providers by Gender Preferred Broadband Service Provider After Planned Move Preferred Voice Service Provider After Planned Move Preferred Video Service Provider After Planned Move First Service Provider to Call After Moving by Previous Access Methods First Service Provider to Call After Moving by Age First Service Provider to Call After Moving by Gender Number of Hours Spent on Activity Media Activities Penetration of Home Data Networks Most Valuable Applications for a Home Network (U.S.) Offered and Accepted Home Networking Offer from BSP: U.S. Offered and Accepted Home Networking Offer from BSP: Canada What Factors were Important in Accepting a Home Networking Offer from the Broadband ISP? (U.S.) What Factors were Important in Accepting a Home Networking Offer from the Broadband ISP? (Canada) Respondents Experiencing Security-related Maladies What Internet Security Solutions are Used? Rating Internet Providers on Responsiveness to Security Issues (U.S.) Rating Individual Internet Providers on Responsiveness to Security Issues (U.S.) Rating Internet Providers on Responsiveness to Security Issues (Canada) Rating Individual Internet Providers on Responsiveness to Security Issues (Canada) Interest in Online Storage Solution: By Weekly Multimedia Activities Willingness to Pay for an Online Storage Solution Frequency of PC Maintenance Functions Interest in PC Maintenance Dashboard Comcast Financial Overview Comcast Subscriber Base Comcast Internet Packages Time Warner Cable Financial Overview Time Warner Cable Subscriber Base Time Warner Cable: Internet Packages Charter Financial Overview Charter Subscriber Base Charter Internet Packages Cablevision Financial Overview Cablevision Subscriber Base Cablevision Broadband Packages Cox Financial Overview Cox Subscriber Base Cox High-Speed Services Rogers Financial Overview Rogers Subscriber Base Rogers High-Speed Services

6 AT&T Financial Overview AT&T Subscriber Base AT&T Internet Packages with Voiceline AT&T Internet Packages without Voiceline Verizon Communication, Inc. Financial Overview Verizon Communication, Inc. Subscriber Base Verizon High-Speed Internet Packages Qwest Financial Overview Qwest Subscriber Base Qwest DSL Packages Embarq Financial Overview Embarq Subscriber Base Embarq DSL Packages Clearwire Financial Overview Clearwire Subscriber Base Clearwire Broadband Packages Sprint Financial Overview Sprint Mobile Broadband Packages Bell Canada Financial Overview Bell Canada Subscriber Base Bell Canada Broadband Packages Telus Financial Overview Telus Subscriber Base Telus Broadband Packages Attributes Parks Associates 5310 Harvest Hill Road Suite 235 Lock Box 162 Dallas TX toll free phone fax parksassociates.com parksassociates.com Authored by James Kuai and Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai Executive Editor: Tricia Parks Published by Parks Associates January 2008 Parks Associates Dallas, Texas All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America. Disclaimer Parks Associates has made every reasonable effort to ensure that all information in this report is correct. We assume no responsibility for any inadvertent errors.