Broadband Satellite Markets, 11 th Edition

Transcription

1 Report Briefing

2 Report Description NSR s Broadband Satellite Markets, 11th Edition is an industry leading analysis and forecast of all key market segments within the overall satellite broadband sector, including VSAT networking markets, satellite broadband Internet access services, and broadband trunking & backhaul applications. The study assesses the installed base of sites or subscribers in seven different regional markets, investigates trends impacting market growth, forecasts service and equipment revenue, and predicts satellite capacity requirements for provisioning each market vertical. Beyond classic C- and Ku-band capacity, NSR also led the industry in forecasting use of High Throughput Satellites (HTS) for the different satellite broadband market applications as well as introducing projections for uptake of O3b capacity for specific market segments. Some of the main issues and questions addressed in the study include: What are the trends driving or restraining growth in the installed base of sites or subscribers for each market? Which market segments and which regions are most likely to benefit from new demand or expansion of existing services? Who are the main players in each industry segment, and what have been their key successes in the last year? What are the revenues to be generated from service provisioning and customer premises equipment sales in each region and market segment? What is the satellite capacity demand for each service in each region, and how is this being provisioned?

3 Broadband Satellite Market Segmentation Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Source: NSR Primary Elements of the Report Include: Industry trend analysis including NSR s qualitative assessment of each major market segment A bottom-up forecasting approach based on detailed sites and subscriber data Results of the forecast in terms of installed base of sites/subscribers, service and CPE revenues, and bandwidth provisioning requirements for every market segment studied More than 300 detailed tables and charts Step-by-step methodology Variance analysis for each market to highlight any changes between the current and prior forecasts in this market A Complete Analytical Perspective Elements of this study include: Complete report document segmented by analysis on all regions, players, market opportunity and demand trends An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections A summary PowerPoint file containing a summary of all report findings and data. Complimentary 1/2 half day of consulting time with the NSR analyst who authored the report to review report findings and interpret the market.

4 Key Features Broadband Satellite Markets, 11th Edition Data Segmentation Market Forecasts Satellite Broadband Access Enterprise VSAT Networking Satellite Trunking & Backhaul Subscribers Service Revenues CPE Revenues Capacity Demand One-Way Services Two-Way Services IP Trunking Backhaul Sites Service Revenues CPE Revenues Capacity Demand Sites Service Revenues CPE Revenues Capacity Demand Sites Service Revenues CPE Revenues Capacity Demand Sites Service Revenues CPE Revenues Capacity Demand Source: NSR Who Should Purchase this Study Satellite Service Providers and Integrators Satellite Equipment Manufacturers National, Regional, and Global Satellite Operators ISPs and Satellite Broadband Access Service Providers Mobile & Cellular Service Providers Banks, Financial Institutions Other Investors

5 Executive Summary Market Overview Enterprise VSAT networking growth comes from social inclusion and classic corporate verticals including some overlooked narrowband services NSR forecasts that the Asian and Latin American markets will see some of the fastest rates of growth in enterprise VSAT services and will begin to equal or exceed in terms of installed base of VSAT sites more mature markets like North America. Both regions are experiencing similar demand trends with government social inclusion, USO, school network and related projects being big factors in driving growth in the installed base of VSAT sites. Also, Asia and Latin America are experiencing solid gains coming from more classic enterprise-class segments like banking & finance, oil & gas, retail and corporate clients. Often overlooked by the industry, NSR also registered good gains in two-way narrowband VSAT services in the last year, notably in Asia, North America and Western Europe. This is largely thanks to ATM and lottery networks that are very well suited to two-way narrowband VSAT services. Just as important, the industry is reporting that these same regions as well as a number of others should see significant expansions in ATM and lottery services, among other applications, in the coming 3-4 years that will drive important gains in the installed global base of two-way narrowband sites. 3.8 million net new satellite broadband Internet access subscribers globally by 2021 In terms of pure installed base, NSR projects that satellite broadband access subscribers will outnumber all other segments of the broadband satellite market by The large majority of subscriber growth will come from the North America and Western Europe followed by Latin America. These are the regions where the markets are most open to tapping into the real demand for broadband access services and where NSR is seeing the greatest opportunities to not only address unserved households and businesses, but to also truly compete with poor quality adsl in the underserved segments. Fewer trunking sites, but more bandwidth On a global basis, NSR forecasts that the installed base of satellite-provisioned IP trunking sites will decline due to ongoing competition from undersea cables and terrestrial fiber. However, satellite s Achilles heel of relatively high cost capacity compared to fiber will at least be partially alleviated as new technologies for trunking come to the fore, notably O3b and HTS capacity. These new O3b and HTS trunking services will help stabilize the global decline in satellite trunking sites from about 2016/2017 onwards. More important, NSR projects that global capacity requirements (in Gbps terms) for satellite trunking services will increase from 2012 onwards

6 despite the declining installed base of trunking sites. This is a reflection of the significantly greater amount of capacity that the new O3b and HTS provisioned trunking services can bring to bear in the trunking market at a much lower price per bit. 3G/4G services drive transition in satellite backhaul market NSR forecasts that steady backhaul site growth will continue through to 2014/2015, most especially for the Sub-Saharan African and Asian markets, mainly for traditional SCPC C-band and TDMA Ku-band provisioned backhaul services. However, the commercial and competitive requirement on telcos and celcos to expand 3G/4G services to ever more rural and remote areas implies that traditional C- and Ku-band services become ever less cost effective as the data load at the 3G/4G sites exponentially increases. Yet, the satellite industry does have a solution, which is the migration of backhaul services to O3b and HTS provisioned backhaul sites that can offer substantially more capacity as a much cheaper price. These new technologies are projected to rapidly grow and drive strong gains in the installed base of satellite backhaul sites from about 2015 onwards. Broadband Satellite Market Sites & Subs by Region Sites & Subs ('000,000s) Asia SSA MENA CEEU WEU LAM NAM Source : NSR 4.6 million net new sites/subscribers by 2021 for the total broadband satellite market Putting together the combined global base of enterprise VSAT networking sites, satellite broadband Internet access subscribers, and broadband trunking & backhaul sites, NSR estimated that the total installed base of sites and subscribers stood at 3.5 million in This is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8% reaching 8.1 million in Service and customer premises equipment (CPE) revenues for the broadband satellite industry are projected more than double between 2011 and 2021 scoring a US$4.9 billion net gain. Service revenues, especially from enterprise VSAT networking and satellite broadband access

7 segments, will contribute the largest portion of this revenue gain. Further, North America will account for the most regional service and CPE revenues given its large and mature enterprise VSAT market and rapidly growing satellite broadband Internet access industry. $10.0 $8.0 Broadband Satellite Market Service & CPE Revenues by Region Asia SSA MENA CEEU WEU LAM NAM US$ Billions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Source : NSR 1,500 1,200 Global Broadband Satellite Leased TPE and Bandwidth Demand Ka Band C Band HTS Ku Band O3b MHz TPEs Gbps Source : NSR

8 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1. BROADBAND SATELLITE MARKETS, 11TH EDITION ES.1.1. Market Overview ES.1.2. Report Overview 1. GLOBAL OVERVIEW 1.1. OVERVIEW OF MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS Introduction and Review Market Segment and Regional Definitions Global Service Revenues Global Customer Premises Equipment Revenues Global Capacity Demand 2. VSAT NETWORKING SERVICES 2.1. ENTERPRISE VSAT NETWORKING SERVICES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 2.2. ENTERPRISE VSAT NETWORKING SERVICES DEFINITION AND MAJOR MARKET TRENDS Market Definitions Key Players in VSAT Networking Services Addressable Vertical Markets 2.3. ENTERPRISE VSAT NETWORKING SERVICES MARKET FORECASTS Regional One-Way and Two-Way VSAT Site Forecasts Global Enterprise VSAT Networking Site Forecasts Comparison of BBSM 10th and BBSM 11th Market Forecasts Global Enterprise VSAT Networking Service and CPE Revenues Global Enterprise VSAT Networking Capacity Demand 3. SATELLITE BROADBAND ACCESS SERVICES 3.1. SATELLITE BROADBAND ACCESS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 3.2. SATELLITE BROADBAND ACCESS SERVICES DEFINITION AND MAJOR MARKET TRENDS One-Way Satellite with Terrestrial Return Two-Way Satellite 3.3. SATELLITE BROADBAND ACCESS SERVICES MARKET FORECASTS Regional Satellite Broadband Access Subscriber Forecasts Global Satellite Broadband Access Subscriber Forecast Comparison of BBSM 10th and BBSM 11th Market Forecasts Global Satellite Broadband Access Service and CPE Revenues Global Satellite Broadband Access Capacity Demand

9 4. TRUNKING & BACKHAUL SERVICES 4.1. BROADBAND TRUNKING & BACKHAUL SERVICE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 4.2. SATELLITE TRUNKING & BACKHAUL SERVICES DEFINITION AND MAJOR MARKET TRENDS Satellite Trunking Market Service Definition and Trends Satellite Backhaul Market Service Definition and Trends 4.3. SATELLITE TRUNKING & BACKHAUL MARKET FORECASTS Regional Satellite Trunking & Backhaul Site Forecasts Global Satellite Trunking & Backhaul Site Forecast Comparison of BBSM 10th and BBSM 11th Market Forecasts Global Satellite Trunking & Backhaul Service and CPE Revenues Global Satellite Trunking & Backhaul Capacity Demand A. APPENDICES A.1 ENTERPRISE VSAT NETWORKING FORECAST METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS A.1.1 One-Way and Two-Way VSAT Site Forecast Methodology A.1.2 Service Revenues Forecast Methodology A.1.3 Customer Premises Equipment Revenues Forecast Methodology A.1.4 Capacity Demand Forecast Methodology A.2 SATELLITE BROADBAND ACCESS FORECAST METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS A.2.1 Subscriber Forecast Methodology A.2.2 Service Revenues Forecast Methodology A.2.3 Customer Premises Equipment Revenues Forecast Methodology A.2.4 Capacity Demand Forecast Methodology A.3 SATELLITE TRUNKING & BACKHAUL FORECAST METHODOLOGIES AND ASSUMPTIONS A.3.1 Satellite Trunking Sites Forecast Methodology A.3.2 Trunking Service Revenues Forecast Methodology A.3.3 Trunking Customer Premises Equipment Revenues Forecast Methodology A.3.4 Trunking Capacity Demand Forecast Methodology

10 List of Exhibits Ex. ES.1 Broadband Satellite Market Sites & Subs by Region, Ex. ES.2 Broadband Satellite Market Service & CPE Revenues by Region, Ex. ES.3 Global Broadband Satellite Leased TPE and Bandwidth Demand, Ex. ES.4 Broadband Satellite Market Segmentation Ex. ES.5 Forecasts by Market Segment Ex. 1.1 Global Enterprise VSAT Site Installed Base, Ex. 1.2 Global Satellite Broadband Access Subscribers, Ex. 1.3 Global Broadband Trunking & Backhaul Site Installed Base, Ex. 1.4 Broadband Satellite Market Segmentation Ex. 1.5 Broadband Satellite Market Segments Definitions Ex. 1.6 Regional Definitions Ex. 1.7 Forecasts by Market Segment Ex. 1.8 Broadband Satellite Service Revenues by Market Segment, Ex. 1.9 Broadband Satellite CPE Revenues by Market Segment, Ex Global Broadband Satellite Leased TPE and Bandwidth Demand, Ex Broadband Satellite Leased C-Band TPE Demand by Market Segment, Ex Broadband Satellite Leased Ku-Band TPE Demand by Market Segment, Ex Broadband Satellite Leased Widebeam Ka-Band TPE Demand by Market Segment, Ex Broadband Satellite Leased O3b Bandwidth Demand by Market Segment, Ex Broadband Satellite Leased HTS Bandwidth Demand by Market Segment, Ex. 2.1 Enterprise VSAT Networking Market Segmentation Ex. 2.2 Parameters of Broadband VSAT Satellite Networking Services Forecasts Ex. 2.3 Definitions of Small, Medium and Large Ex. 2.4 Parameters of Narrowband VSAT Satellite Networking Services Forecasts Ex. 2.5 Satellite VSAT Networking Market- Tier One and Two Manufacturers and Managed Service Providers Ex. 2.6 Satellite VSAT Networking Market- Tier One and Two Manufacturers and Managed Service Providers (cont.) Ex. 2.7 Enterprise and SME Addressable Market Verticals Ex. 2.8 North American Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex. 2.9 North American Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex North American One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex North American One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Latin American Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Latin American Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Latin American One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites,

11 Ex Latin American One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Western European Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Western European Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Western European One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Western European One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Central & Eastern European Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Central & Eastern European Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Central & Eastern European One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Central & Eastern European One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Middle Eastern & North African One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Middle Eastern & North African One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Asian Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Asian Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Asian One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Asian One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Global Baseline Two-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Global Baseline Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex Global Baseline One-Way Broadband VSAT Sites, Ex Global Baseline One-Way Narrowband VSAT Sites, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition Two-Way Broadband VSAT Site Forecast Comparison, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Site Forecast Comparison, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition One-Way Broadband VSAT Site Forecast Comparison, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition One-Way Narrowband VSAT Site Forecast Comparison, Ex Global Two-Way Narrowband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global One-Way Narrowband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global Narrowband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global Two-Way Broadband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global One-Way Broadband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global Broadband VSAT Service Revenues, Ex Global Two-Way Narrowband VSAT CPE Revenues, Ex Global One-Way Narrowband VSAT CPE Revenues, Ex Global Narrowband VSAT CPE Revenues, Ex Global Two-Way Broadband VSAT CPE Revenues, Ex Global One-Way Broadband VSAT CPE Revenues,

12 Ex Global Broadband VSAT CPE Revenues, Ex Narrowband VSAT Networking Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand By Region, Ex Global Narrowband VSAT Networking Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Broadband VSAT Networking Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand By Region, Ex Global Broadband VSAT Networking Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex. 3.1 Typical Two-Way Satellite Broadband Access Service Configuration Ex. 3.2 Typical Ku-band Coverage vs. HTS Coverage Ex. 3.3 North American Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex. 3.4 North American Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex. 3.5 Latin American Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex. 3.6 Latin American Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex. 3.7 Western European Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex. 3.8 Western European Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex. 3.9 Central & Eastern European Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex Central & Eastern European Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex Sub-Saharan African Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex Sub-Saharan African Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex Asian Satellite Broadband Subscribers, Ex Asian Residential & Business Broadband Subscriber Breakout, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Subscribers by Region, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Bandwidth Demand, Ex Satellite Broadband Access Subscriber Market Share, 2011 Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition Satellite Broadband Access Subscribers Forecast Comparison, Ex Average ARPU by Region, Ex Average CPE Cost by Region, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Service Revenues, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access CPE Revenues, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Service and CPE Revenues, Ex North American Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Latin American Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Latin American Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Western European Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Western European Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Central & Eastern European Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber,

13 Ex Central & Eastern European Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Middle Eastern & North African Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Sub-Saharan African Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Sub-Saharan African Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Asian Estimate of Kbps of HTS Capacity Allocated Per Subscriber, Ex Asian Satellite Broadband Access TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Leased Ku-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Satellite Broadband Access Leased HTS Bandwidth Demand, Ex. 4.1 Key Satellite Operator s Teleports Map Location Ex. 4.2 North American Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex. 4.3 Latin American Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex. 4.4 Latin American Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex. 4.5 Western European Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex. 4.6 Central & Eastern European Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex. 4.7 Central & Eastern European Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex. 4.8 Middle Eastern & North African Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex. 4.9 Middle Eastern & North African Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex Sub-Saharan African Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex Asian Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex Asian Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex Global Baseline Broadband Trunking Sites, Ex Global Trunking Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Baseline Broadband Backhaul Sites, Ex Global Backhaul Bandwidth Demand, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition Trunking Site Forecast Comparison, Ex BBSM 10th & BBSM 11th Edition Backhaul Site Forecast Comparison, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Service Revenues, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Service Revenues, Ex Global Broadband Trunking CPE Revenues, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul CPE Revenues, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased TPE & Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased C-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased C-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased Ku-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased Ku-Band TPE Demand,

14 Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased Ka-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased Ka-Band TPE Demand, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased O3b Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased O3b Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Broadband Trunking Leased HTS Bandwidth Demand, Ex Global Broadband Backhaul Leased HTS Bandwidth Demand, Ex. A.1 Rating Elements for Narrowband VSAT Site Forecast Model Ex. A.2 Rating Elements for Broadband VSAT Site Forecast Model Ex. A.3 Template for Determining Growth Factors, by Service and Region Ex. A.4 Assumed Breakout of Narrowband Sites for North America, Ex. A.5 Assumed Breakout of Broadband Sites for North America, Ex. A.6 Assumed Narrowband Monthly Service Prices for North America, Ex. A.7 Assumed Broadband Monthly Service Prices for North America, Ex. A.8 Assumed Narrowband CPE Prices for North America, Ex. A.9 Assumed Broadband CPE Prices for North America, Ex. A.10 Assumed Contention Ratios for Narrowband and Broadband VSAT Services in North America, Ex. A.11 Average Channel Bandwidth per Narrowband VSAT Site in North America, Ex. A.12 Average Channel Bandwidth per Broadband VSAT Site in North America, Ex. A.13 Enterprise Satellite Bandwidth Demand Formula Ex. A.14 Rating Elements for Satellite Broadband Access Subscriber Forecast Ex. A.15 Average Kbps Provisioning per HTS Subscriber by Region, Ex. A.16 Conversion Factor for Mbps to MHz, Ex. A.17 Average Satellite Bandwidth Demand per C- & Ku-Band Broadband Trunking Site, Ex. A.18 Average Satellite Bandwidth Demand per O3b Broadband Trunking Site, Ex. A.19 Average Satellite Bandwidth Demand per HTS Broadband Trunking Site, Ex. A.20 Rating Elements for C-& Ku-Band Satellite Broadband Trunking Site Forecast Ex. A.21 Rating Elements for O3b Satellite Broadband Trunking Site Forecast Ex. A.22 Rating Elements for HTS Satellite Broadband Trunking Site Forecast Ex. A.23 C-, Ku- & Ka-Band Broadband Trunking Monthly Service Pricing per Mbps by Region, Ex. A.24 O3b Broadband Trunking Monthly Service Pricing per Mbps by Region, Ex. A.25 HTS Broadband Trunking Monthly Service Pricing per Mbps by Region, Ex. A.26 Average Trunking CPE Prices by Service Type, Ex. A.27 Average O3b Trunking CPE Prices by Region,