Scenarios for the Market-development of Electrified Vehicles

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1 LR - Institute of Vehicle Concepts Scenarios for the Market-development of Electrified Vehicles September 28, 2010 Stephan A. Schmid, Bernd Propfe

2 Content Overview on the project Vehicle technology scenario model VECTOR21 Scenario results Conclusions r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 2

3 Overview of the project Perspectives of hybrid-/electric vehicles in an energy system with a high share of renewable electricity Battery-cost-modeling Techno-economic analysis: vehicles, infrastructure Mittel roß Vehicle stock by technologies Szenario 1 Szenario 2 VECTOR 21 Eingangsparameter Vehicle scenarios, electricity demand Optimisation of renewable electricity supply Story-Lines Integration into the electricity net Context of e-mobility Why should it start now? Perspectives of hybrid-/ electric vehicles Economic and political framework Institut für Technische Thermodynamik (Coordinator) r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Slide 3 Institute of Vehicle Concepts

4 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model Modeling both technology supply and customer demand energy consumption technology costs fuel prices, taxes, computer model fuel economy packages vehicle size vehicle size powertrain concept vehicle choice customer (900 types) adopter group type of fuel technical parts annual mileage willingness-to-pay sales / market shares CO 2 emissions r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 4

5 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model Within the model, 900 different types of customers are simulated Vehicle segment L M S 3 vehicle sizes: small, medium, large Input based on historical data of the erman Federal Motor Transport Authority 3 x Annual driving distance ifferent distributions for the driving distances, depending on the vehicle size ata based on the survey Mobilität in eutschland 2008 (Mi) 60 x Adopter group Five different attitudes towards innovations Based on theory from Rogers Crucial for willlingness-to-pay of customers 5 Source: LR; Mobilität in eutschland 2008 (Mi); Kraftfartbundesamt 900 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 5

6 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model The buying-decision is implemented in a three step approach vehicle variants (combination of vehicle technology and fuel) step 1: filter for vehicle size category and general compulsory requirements step 2: choose lowest relevant cost of ownership (RCO) step 3: choose lowest well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions Source: LR, VECTOR21 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Slide 6 Institute of Vehicle Concepts

7 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model The model has been validated using historical data for market penetrations of iesel-vehicles on the erman market r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Slide 7 Institute of Vehicle Concepts

8 VECTOR 21 - Scenario 1 For the first scenario, business-as-usual assumptions have been defined Scenario assumptions Source Oil price [ /bbl] CN fuel tax [%] 20 starting in 2018: 100 Legislation Electricity price [ ct/kwh] 21,5 34,1 37,3 36,4 35,7 Leitszenario 2010 EE H 2 -price [ ct/kwh] 16,4 39,0 37,6 36,5 35,5 Calculation Percentage H 2 produced by electrolysis [%] ( ) : (0 100) LR analysis CO 2 -emissions electricity [g/kwh] 21 Leitszenario 2010, EE (BMU) CO 2 -emissions H 2 [g/kwh] Calculation CO 2 -target [g CO 2 /km] 2015: Legislation, BMU CO 2 -penalty [ / (g CO 2 /km)] 95 Legislation, LR analysis Willingness-to-pay [%] 0-20 Customer analysis istribution vehicle segments [S/M/L %] (25/55/20) (28/50/22) (30/45/25) KBA KBA: erman Federal Motor Transport Authority, BMU: Federal Ministry for the Environment r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 8

9 VECTOR 21 - Scenario 1 - New vehicle fleet Alternative vehicle concepts will not be able to dominate the market CN CN Hyb Hyb CN 5 Hyb 5 Hyb small medium Hyb CN 5 CN Hyb Hyb CN Hyb 5 Hyb CN Hyb large all r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 9

10 VECTOR 21 - Scenario 2 The second scenario assumes more progressive parameters towards e-mobility Scenario assumptions Source Oil price [ /bbl] CN fuel tax [%] 20 starting in 2018: 100 Legislation Electricity price [ ct/kwh] 20,7 36,7 40,2 38,3 37,7 Leitszenario 2010 EE H 2 -price [ ct/kwh] 16,4 42,5 41,5 39,0 38,2 Calculation Percentage H 2 produced by electrolysis [%] ( ) : (0 100) LR analysis CO 2 -emissions electricity [g/kwh] Leitszenario 2010, EE (BMU) CO 2 -emissions H 2 [g/kwh] Calculation CO 2 -target [g CO 2 /km] 2015: Legislation, BMU CO 2 -penalty [ / (g CO 2 /km)] 2015: Legislation, LR analysis Willingness-to-pay [%] 0-20 Customer analysis istribution vehicle segments [S/M/L %] (25/55/20) (28/50/22) (30/45/25) KBA KBA: erman Federal Motor Transport Authority, BMU: Federal Ministry for the Environment; Variations from scenario 1 are marked green r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 10

11 VECTOR 21 - Scenario 2 - New vehicle fleet ue to severe CO 2 -penalties, alternative vehicle concepts will succeed CN CN Hyb CN Hyb 5 small Hyb CN 5 large Hyb Hyb CN Hyb 5 medium Hyb Hyb CN 5 all Hyb CN Hyb r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 11

12 VECTOR 21 - Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2 The changes will have a slow impact on the entire vehicle stock New vehicle fleet Hyb 5 CN Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Hyb CN Hyb Hyb 5 CN Hyb CN Hyb Vehicle stock Hyb 5 CN Hyb CN Hyb CN Hyb 5 Hyb CN Hyb r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 12

13 Conclusion VECTOR21 facilitates the ex-ante analysis of the future passenger car market, taking into account technology developments and external factors Vehicle technologies vs. customer behavior New vehicle fleet Entire vehicle stock Emissions and costs ynamic simulation Sensivities Ex-ante analysis Taxes and subsidies Congestion charges Raw material prices Technology costs overnmental organisations Utility companies OEMs Logistics service provider Utilization Further development Additional countries: EU, China (already implemented), Mobility patterns Sensivity-analysis Commercial vehicles r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Slide 13 Institute of Vehicle Concepts

14 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Slide 14 Institute of Vehicle Concepts

15 BACK UP r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 15

16 Scenario calculations Scenario 1 (Baseline) Assumptions Backup Oil price [ /bbl] Share of biofuels [%] Electricity Source erman mix Electricity CO 2 intensity [g/kwh] Electricity price [ /kwh] Hydrogen source natural gas electricity Hydrogen CO 2 intensity [g/kwh] Hydrogen price [ /kwh] CO 2 target value new vehicles [g/km] CO 2 penalty for exceeding target [ /(g/km)] Customers willingess to pay for fuel economy [%] Vehicle size categories (small / medium / large) [%] 25/55/20 26/52/21 28/50/23 29/47/24 30/45/25 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 16

17 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model Szenario 2 (Business-As-Usual) Neufahrzeugflotte Backup FCV CN -HEV CN-HEV FCV CN 5 -HEV small CN-HEV CN -HEV 5 -HEV medium FCV CN-HEV CN -HEV 5 large -HEV 5 -HEV all Quelle: Mock 2010 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 17

18 Scenario calculations Scenario 2 (Climate Protection) Assumptions Backup Oil price [ /bbl] Share of biofuels [%] Electricity Source renewables Electricity CO 2 intensity [g/kwh] Electricity price [ /kwh] 0,21 0,21 0,37 0,37 0,37 Hydrogen source electricity Hydrogen CO 2 intensity [g/kwh] Hydrogen price [ /kwh] 0,21 0,21 0,38 0,38 0,38 CO 2 target value new vehicles [g/km] CO 2 penalty for exceeding target [ /(g/km)] Customers willingess to pay for fuel economy [%] Vehicle size categories (small / medium / large) [%] 25/55/20 26/52/21 28/50/23 29/47/24 30/45/25 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 18

19 VECTOR 21 Vehicle Technology Scenario Model Szenario 2 (Climate Protection) Neufahrzeugflotte CN FCV CN CN-HEV FCV 5 small -HEV CN CN-HEV CN-HEV -HEV -HEV FCV 5 medium -HEV -HEV CN -HEV FCV 5 large -HEV 5 all CN-HEV -HEV Quelle: Mock 2010 r. Stephan A. Schmid > f-cell 2010 > Folie 19

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