EASTERN AFRICA AFRICA POWER POWER POOL POOL eapp@eappool.org http://www.eappool.org

EASTERN AFRICA AFRICA POWER POWER POOL POOL eapp@eappool.org http://www.eappool.org

Outline EAPP members-electricity tariff Unit generation -Thermal options EAPP region-unit generation of candidate hydro projects(uganda, Tanzania, Sudan, Kenya) Screening curve for Non-Hydro options-ethiopia Trends on Power exchanges

Typical Electricity Tariff($cents/Kwh) Country Residential Commercial Ethiopia.3 7.7 Kenya 23.1 1.1 Tanzania 17.2 1. Current generation in EAPP member states ~5-2$/kwh

EAPP-Future thermal options Unit generation s Country Type Capacity (MW) Capital with IDC ($/kw) Fixed c/kwh Variable c/kwh c/kwh Fixed % Variable % Egypt STPP - NG 13 119 2.57 1.82.39 3.7 59% 1% CCGT - NG 1 121 2. 1.3 3.7 59% 1% Nuclear 1 3 8..9 9. 9% 1% Ethiopia Geothermal 75/1 353.73 1.75 8.8 79% 21% Kenya Geothermal 1 37 8.38 1.75 1.13 83% 17% STPP - coal (Richards Bay) 3 2919 5.92 5.5 1.97 5% % Rwanda Diesel/Methane 1 313.9 2.5 8.7 Sudan STPP - Crude 25 23.5 9.38 13.3 77% 23% Tanzania STPP - Coal 382.77 2.5 9.2 3% 7% OCGT - NG 2 11 2.3 5.1 7.13 72% 28% Uganda CCGT - Gasoil 185 131 2.8 21.73 2.1 28% 72% STPP - HFO 23.13 1.27 18.9 11% 89%

EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-uganda Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Name Ins. Cap MW Avrg. Energ y GWh Orig. MUS D Price Year Esc.In dec. 29 Esc. Dec. 9 MUS D Const Years IDC % IDC in Env. Mitiga tion in in Amort O& M Insur ance + Interi m Repl. Energ y c/kw h Inves t $/kw Uganda Karuma High 7 5512 2 29 1 2 5 2 133 2793 282 1 295 5.35 399 Ayago 55 33 28 29 1 28 28 12 2151 217 3 8 227 5.2 391 Murchiso n High 75 59 158 29 1 158 5 158 79 158 17 177 3. 2211 Isimba 1 788 3 29 1 3 3 17 33 37 1 1 38.87 331 Notes : The capital of large hydro plants includes the of transmission required to connect the HPP to the system Environmental Mitigation s already include IDCs.

EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-tanza Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit $/kw Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh TANZAN IA Ruhudji 358 1928 9.7 28 1. 9.7 5 2.2 1.8. 1.8 2. 1.79 2.15 5.9 3.2 1717 Kinansi II 12 9 191.91 28 1. 191.91 3 15.8 222.1. 222.1 22.39..78 23.77 3.5 185 Masigira 118 28.7 28 1. 28.7 18.5 2.3. 2.3 2.85.59.8 2.3 3.9 288 Rumakali 222 175 58.9 28 1. 58.9 5 2.2 57.15. 57.15 57.5 1.11 2..1.11 258 Mpanga 1 955 28.9 28 1. 28.9 18.5 293.91. 293.91 29..72 1.3 31.39 3.29 21 Stiegler Gorge 1 3 223 872.8 28 1. 872.8 5 2.2 18.2. 18.2 19.3 1.5 3.79 11.5 5.1 31 Stiegler Gorge 2 15 31.91 28 1. 31.91 5 2.2 38.28. 38.28 38.9 3. 1.35 3.31 2.88 Stiegler Gorge 3 3 1523 25.87 28 1. 25.87 5 2.2 31.. 31. 31.9 1.5 1.11 3.55 2.27 15 Igamba Falls (Stage 2)* 8 5 11.3 2 127.2 1.37 3 15.8 1.3. 1.3 1.8.. 1.78 2.73 278 Igamba Falls 98 m 8 9. 2 127.2 513.85 18.5.2..2 1.18. 2.12 3.71 12.9 7583 Ikondo 3 182.88 29 1..88 3 15.8 71.39. 71.39 7.78 1.7 2.59 79.7.29 2181 Taveta 15 85 379.88 29 1. 379.88 3 15.8 39.. 39..32.73 1.5.59 5.8 331 Songwe Bipugu 3 153 8.7 2 127.2 1.93 3 15.8 123.7. 123.7 12.8.17.3 13.8 8.55 338 Songwe Sofre 157 73 255.5 2 127.2 32. 3 15.8 375.28. 375.28 37.85.79 1.31 39.95 5.3 239 Songwe Manolo 19 78 259.32 2 127.2 329.83 3 15.8 381.5. 381.5 38.8.75 1.3.5 5.2 251 Kakono (High) 53 9.7 28 1. 9.7 3 15.8 1.2. 1.2 1.51.27.3 11.1 2.7 19 Kishanda 27 187 181. 2 127.2 23.21 18.5 271.78. 271.78 27.1 1..95 29. 2.7 1313 Luiche 15 1 8.7 2 127.2 87.38 3 15.8 11.8. 11.8 1.2.8.35 1.3 1.3 7 Rusumo Falls (Full) 2 227. 28 1. 227. 18.5 28.5 29.5 297.95 3.5.31 1. 31. 7.7 85

EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-sudan Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh Sabaloka 9 7 59 2 Shereiq 315 192 87 2 Kagbar 3 113 73 2 Dal 1 (low) 3 198 1113 2 7 Dagash 285 153 8 2 Fula 1 72 13 1319 2 Shukoli 21 13 2 2 Lakki 21 13 29 2 Bedden 278 88 2 Rumela 3 83 193 2 1.5 23. 1.5 915. 8 1.5 797.5 11. 1128. 58 1.5 83.2 1.5 1378. 75 1.5 39. 3 1.5 8. 3 1.5 919.8 1.5 21.7 SUDAN 18.5 735. 7 5 2.2 1137. 7 5 2.2 99.9 2 5 2.2 12. 18 5 2.2 138. 97 5 2.2 1713. 18.5 518.2 9 18.5 529.3 9 5 2.2 112. 87 3 15.8 233.3 8 31.15 7. 2. 1137. 7 39.88 13. 8. 12. 18 1.81 18. 78 8.9 1781. 9 21.95 5.2 22.2 551.8 2 5.99 1188. 8 1.9 23. 7 $/kw 77.32.5 2.8 8.5 12.1 8518 11.7 1.58 3.98 12.3.13 312 13.97 1.5 3.1 19.7 7.72 33 11.2 1.7.91 18.3 7.52 12 19.1 1.3 3.78 11.21 7. 3792 179.72 3..2 189.5.59 275 5.9 1.5 1.89 57.3 3.98 2573 55. 1.5 1.93 58.. 228 119.91 2..1 12.7.59 2972 2.5.15.85 25.5 3.79 811

EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects-kenya Name Generation Investment Annual s () Unit Prices Install Avera Escalat Env. Energy Origina Esc. ed ge Price ed to Const. Mitigat Amortiz l Index IDC % with O & M INS+INT unit $/kw Cap. Energy Year Dec. 9 Years ion ation REPL 29 IDC MW GWh c/kwh Mutonga 33 235.3 Low Grand Falls 1 77.9 Magwagwa 12 525 29.5 Karura 5 18 19. 2 8 2 8 2 2 9 1. 235.3 1..9 127.2 37.5 7 1. 19. KENYA 3 15.8 272.2 18.5 5.1 1 18.5 2.2 3 15.8 22.7. 272.2. 5.1 1. 2.2. 22.7 27.5.3.95 28.71 8.5 537 5.88.7 1.9 57.8 8.13 3887.. 1.55.75 8.9 385 22.87.28.79 23.9 13.1 9

Typical future generation projects-unit ($cents/kwh) Ethiopia- (3-5) Uganda- (3-5) Tanzania-(3-5) Sudan-(-8) Kenya-----(8-1)

EAPP region-unit of Candidate hydro projects.. DRC and Ethiopia have even more attractive hydro sites. But there is interest in the development of Geothermal/Wind/Solar power(energy mix).. Looking at hydro, the best projects in terms of unit are yet to come. Fossil-fuelled generation hardly compete with hydro in the EAPP region, but with geothermal/wind/solar based generation. Imports also affect the average generation in the individual systems with less hydro potential

Annual $/kwh Screening Curves for Non-Hydro Plant $/kwh.5 Generation Screening Curve.5..35.3.25.2.15.1.5. % 1% 2% 3% % 5% % 7% 8% 9% Annual plant load factor GT (DFO) GT gas CCGT gas Geothermal Nuclear Biomass - wood/bagasse Wind Solar Biomass - prosopis/bagasse

Power exchange trends... Significant power exchange already exists between Ethiopia, Sudan and Djibouti. PPA is already signed between Kenya and Ethiopia for a firm power transfer of MW. More generation projects to be commissioned in EAPP region from the short to the long term,which leads to increased power exchange between members More PPAs and WAs are expected to be signed in the near future(ex.tz/et/ke) There seem to be no space for future major fossil-based generation in EAPP if countries remain committed to development of the vast RE potential in the region

eapp@eappool.org http://www.eappool.org Zafarana Wind Farm, Egypt Olkaria Geothermal PP, Kenya Ubungo Gas PP, Tanzania Merowe Hydro PP, Sudan