KenGen and Renewable Energy Partnership in Electro-Technical Innovation to Generate Sustainable Power

Transcription

1 KenGen and Renewable Energy Partnership in Electro-Technical Innovation to Generate Sustainable Power David Muthike Strategy Director, KenGen 2 November 2015, Nairobi 1

2 2 CONTENTS 1 Renewables in Africa 2 Power Sector Overview 3 KenGen s Renewable Strategy

3 Africa is taking Economic Growth Leadership Production Growing 3

4 4 Growth in Productivity Driving Economic Development. 1. Universal access to electricity is the backbone of production. 2. The continent is endowed with sufficient renewable natural resources. 3. Renewable power generation enhances production competitiveness.

5 HYDRO POWER POTENTIAL 1. Africa has over 60GW of hydropower capacity feasible but not yet developed. 1. However, on the other hand, Africa is still the world s region which has exploited less than 7% of its technical and economical feasible hydropower potential. 2. Hydropower is clean and emission free electricity generation technology and therefore it represents an environment friendly energy option, suitable to contrast climate change. Source: 5

6 GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL - LESS THAN 10% DEVELOPED RINGS OF FIRE Kenya >10,000MW Ethiopia >5,000MW >15,000MW potential The Continent has highly trained and experienced technical capacity to develop renewable power Comoros DRC Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia 7.2MW Kenya 609MW Zambia 0.2MW? Malawi Mozambique Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Burundi Source: TMO; Internet Sources; Argeo 6

7 SOLAR POWER POTENTIAL - Africa Has Highest Potential in the World. World Solar Irradiation Map kwh/m 2 /day 1. Much of Africa is well exposed to sunlight. 2. Similar opportunities exist for Wind Power Generation 3. A regional approach to overcoming barriers to renewable energy required. Most Prominent Solar Power Producers Globally -MW 4. Kenya partnering with regional countries to develop renewable power. 7

8 WIND POWER POTENTIAL - Significant Wind Potential World Wind Map Potential W/m 2 /day 1. Africa has significant wind potential in the Northern, Eastern and Southern regions. 2. Wind power generation in Africa at 2,600 Megawatts in Kenya targets 1,600 Megawatts on Wind by year

9 BIOENERGY POTENTIAL - Biofuels remain largely under explored in Africa 9 1. More than 50% of the vast continent of Africa may support biofuel crops. 2. Adoption of biofuels taking shape. 3. Kenya has planned investments in cogeneration and biofuels. Co-generation 26MW Mumias Planned 18MW Biofuel in Kilifi

10 10 CONTENTS 1 Renewables in Africa 2 Power Sector Overview 3 KenGen s Renewable Strategy

11 KENYA POWER SECTOR SETUP Source: KenGen, SBP Office 11 Ministry of Energy & Petroleum Electricity Value Chain ERC (regulator) Energy Tribunal A Single Buyer Market Geothermal Primary Energy GDC Generation Transmission Distribution Customers KenGen 70% Market Share KenGen IPPs Nuclear preparatory Phase IPPs KNEB Imports KeTraCo Kenya Power REA

12 KENYA POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW 12 Tx & Dx Line Length (60,297km) Target Access by % National Installed Capacity (2,298MW) Electricity Access (~48%) Number of Customers (3.86 Million) Annual Sales June 15 (7,130GWh) Highest recorded Peak Demand (1,570MW)

13 13 PROJECTED NATIONAL POWER DEMAND National Plan to add 50% of Renewables 17,764 17,754MW TOTAL CAPACITY MIX Hydro 263 1,600 Wind 15,006 2,200 Hydro Imports 12,141 4,200 Nuclear 10,097 Today s Peak = 1,570MW Installed Capacity 2,298MW Demand is 30%-40% lag 8,226 6,768 4,491 Fossil 4,659 1,482 1,278 3,141 2,038 3,474 5,000 Geothermal 2009/ / / / / /30 1 Peak Demand (MW) Total Capacity (MW)

14 WIND KENYA WIND ATLAS POTENTIAL OVER 10,000 MW 14 Red indicates very good potential power plant sites Wind Logging Sites 1. Malindi, 2. Marsabit (Bubisa1) 3. Marsabit (Bubisa2) 4. Marsabit Hill 5. Isiolo (KenGen) 6. Kerio Valley 7. Kisumu 8. Maseno 9. Kisii (Gucha) 10. Kinangop 11. Loitoktok 12. Narok 13. Ngong (KenGen) 25.6MW

15 SOLAR KENYA SOLAR MAP 15 40km Solar PV (kwh/m2/day) Kenya has potential for solar PV and CSP

16 GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL IN KENYA 10,000 + MW Source: SBP; GDD; Argeo; 16 > 10,000MW in over 23 sites Private developers already licensed at Olkaria III, Akiira and Longonot fields Olkaria Block(1,200MW) (i) 605MW developed (ii) Drilling for >500MW ongoing Suswa, Longonot, Olkaria, 509MW Eburru, Menengai, Arus-Bogoria, Lake Baringo, Korosi, Paka, Lake Magadi, Badlands, Silali, Emuruangogolak, Namarunu Barrier Mwananyamala Homa Hills Nyambene Ridges Chyulu Hills

17 Kenya a Geothermal Leader Olkaria Cementing Kenya s Geothermal Foot Print 17 At 609MW Kenya ranks 8 th Globally in Geothermal installed capacity of this, KenGen Generates 509MW from Olkaria 3,500 3,450 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,870 1,341 1, MW Source: KenGen,

18 18 CONTENTS 1 Renewables in Africa 2 Power Sector Overview 3 KenGen s Renewable Strategy

19 Kenya Ready to do Business KenGen Produces 73% of National Capacity 19 In our 61 st Anniversary; Listed on Nairobi Securities Exchange 70% Government owned US$ 3.2 billion Asset Base; US$ 250 million Annual Turnover; An ISO 9001:2008 & ISO 14001:2004 1,611 MW 85% KenGen Installed Capacity KenGen is Renewable Capacity

20 OUR GOAL IS TO SHIFT TO GEOTHERMAL LED RENEWABLE STRATEGY Source: SBP; 20 Generation Mix Movement ,182MW ,611 MW ,290 MW 5 Wind 49 Geothermal Fossil Fuel Hydro A green KenGen with ~50% geothermal portfolio

21 HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG TANA CASCADE Hydro 820MW Tana Cascade (~52% of our total capacity) Hydro Potential for 500+MW potential for future development but must be in tandem with environmental conservation efforts Source: KenGen 21

22 KenGen GEOTHERMAL JOURNEY SINCE 1956 Source: SBP; GDD : Olkaria I 45MW commissioned +129% : Olkaria II 70MW commissioned 2010: Olkaria II 3 rd Unit 35MW commissioned 2014: Olkaria IV & I Unit 4&5 280MW commissioned Little activity for ~15yrs. (no funding for geothermal)

23 Source: SBP; GDD 23 KenGen GEOTHERMAL GROWTH (MW) Planned capacity /

24 ONGOING STRATEGY Planned Capacity Additions in the Medium Term Estimated Project Cost US$ 57 m US$ 314 m US$ 555 m US$ 571 m US$ 148 m 80 Total Capex US$ 1.65 bn 1,611 Medium Term Dominated with Geothermal Development 2, MW Wellheads Olkaria I U6 Olkaria V Olkaria VI Meru Wind Total

25 Source: SBP; 25 FUNDING OPTIONS KenGen HAS EXPLORED TO FINANCE RENEWABLES KenGen Project Financing Mechanisms Commercial Banks Capital Markets (debt/equity) Public-Private-Partnerships Build-Own-Transfer DFIs (AfD, AfDB, JICA, KfW, EIB) Governments (Exim Loans) Expensive Least expensive Commercial Banks Capital Markets Joint Ventures & PPPs BOT/BOOT/ Concessions DFIs ( World Bank AfD, ADB,AfDB,JICA, EIB, KfW Government

26 26 OUR PPA STRUCTURE IS TAILOR MADE AND STABILIZES FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Reflects Costs Plant by Plant Long Term Stability Maximises Generation Tailor Made Pricing structure reflects KenGen s underlying costs Remunerates KenGen on a plant by plant basis Provides stability and certainty over the project period Incentives to maximize the availability of generation plants and reduce operating cost Terms of each PPA are different and depends on the technology.

27 KenGen s Partnership With Industry Industry Partnership We Welcome You to Be our Long-term Partner in achieving Kenya s Vision 2030 Development Programmes through Standardization. G2G Innovation Seminar 18 th 21 st May 2016 Areas of Participation o Innovative Products o Continuous Improvement Technologies o Cost Reduction methodologies Enquiries For enquires and clarification, please reach me on: [email protected] Strategy & Business Development Director Thank You 27