The Personal Turbine: How small could it go? By: Lukas Skoufa

Transcription

1 The Personal Turbine: How small could it go? By: Lukas Skoufa

2 Outline of the discussion My interest in this topic Brief comments - electricity industry in the last 100 years Gas turbine technology Microturbines (Personal Turbine) Engineering challenges Barriers to adoption A look at some novel applications Concluding remarks

3 Something to keep in mind "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977

4 My interest in this topic Claire Soares 2008 book mentions that within the next three decades the age of the personal turbine (PeT) will emerge. PeTs will at some point will become as prevalent as PCs are. My previous work several publications into the competitiveness of the dominant centralised electricity supply industry. This time I m taking a look at the other end of the scale, distributed micro-generation with a multi-disciplinary approach e.g., engineering and commercial aspects. Advancements in technologies in my lifetime, my first computer was an IBM 286 PC with a 40MB hard drive worth about $3000 in 1991, have convinced me that a PeT might be possible!

5 Electricity Supply Post WWII Electricity Supply became dominated by government-owned large scale vertically integrated systems By the late 1980s/1990s electricity supply was opened up to competition But not transmission as it s a natural monopoly However if we look back around 100 years electricity was essentially a local supply system Climate change/carbon emission pressures will not go away The dominance of large scale power generation is declining people can now choose to go off the grid, but at some expense

6 Power Industry Delivery Process

7 One view - Future of Electricity Supply Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources H vehicle 2 Surplus heat EV Source: IEA, 2012, Energy Technology Perspectives

8 Gas and Steam Turbines - History Source: Giampaolo, 2011, Gas Turbine Handbook

9 Large Scale Gas Turbine Power Generation Technology Advances in design and metallurgy (in line with or independent of military and commercial aircraft power plant advances) Number of installed and proposed GT plants worldwide has increased since 1980s/1990s at expense of coal Environmental pressures on brown and black coal plants Such plants are being mothballed or retired from service in USA, Europe, Australia, but In other cases there are new plants in Europe, Asia GTs plants taking base-load and two-shift operational modes More maintenance How to optimise performance, availability, reliability Life extensions

10 Size from 1 W to 300kW Microturbines Have gained market acceptance during last 15 years (30 kw and above models) Could be used for intermittent, continuous, stand by power needs Efficiency may be as low as ~15%, but with recuperator could be as high as ~40% (based on LHV) Rotational speeds from 40,000 up to 120,000 RPM Low noise levels to 55 dba if using silencer Exhaust temperature C Manufacturers include Capstone, Turbec SpA, and Elliott Microturbines Large gas turbine manufacturers are also involved (GE and Siemens)

11 Microturbines

12 65 kw Capstone Microturbine

13 Microturbines But the very micro power output range (1W 5 kw) is not commercialised as yet CO 2 emissions - 0.7t CO 2 /MWh to around 0.9 CO 2 /MWh NO x emissions 7 15 ppmv Capital costs for the commercially available microturbines are in the range $500/kW to around $US1500/kW This would increase for the very small scale microturbine

14 Microturbine Efficiencies Source: Gillette, 2010, Microturbine Technology Matures, POWER

15 Long Run Marginal Cost ($/MWh) 250 Power Generating Technologies - Emissions Solar Thermal Solar PV Black Coal USC CCS Brown USC CCS Black IGCC CCS Brown IGCC CCS Tidal Geothermal Wind Hydro GT Fuel Oil Biomass Black Coal IGCC OCGT Peaking Black USC Black Coal SC Brown USC Landfill Gas Black Coal USC Black Coal CCGT OCGT Intermediate Brown Coal Emissions Intensity Factor (t-co2/mwh)

16 S Curve for Technology Development Source: Imperial College London Centre for Energy Policy and Technology and E4tech Consulting, 2003, The UK Innovation System for New and Renewable Energy Technologies

17 Electricity Technology S Curve Micro GT Source: Imperial College London Centre for Energy Policy and Technology and E4tech Consulting, 2003, The UK Innovation System for New and Renewable Energy Technologies

18 Engineering Issues Efficiency might not be an issue for such a high power to weight technology Fuel supply fuel cell, water, LNG, H 2 Manufacturing use of ceramics and nano composites Safety hot and toxic exhaust gases; it only takes one to fail and caused injury; noise Innovation support from government and private sectors important Life of a microturbine, it is 100,000 fired hours without any servicing? Reliable and quality power supply? Disposal after use

19 Life-Cycle Analysis Source: Svoboda, 2008, Note on Life Cycles Analysis

20 Barriers to Commercialisation You may have invented the world s best mouse trap but barriers are present to its broad adoption; 1) Technical shaped in part by Point #5 below 2) Regulatory long term environmental policies 3) Planning/Permitting not as relevant to such small scale technology 4) Lack of Standards will there be an industry standard type? 5) Public Lack of Awareness/Opposition ease of use very important. Consumers want hassle free products! 6) Rate of adoption in developed and developing countries

21 Stand-By power consumption is about 8% of residential electricity demand Source: MacKay, 2009, Sustainable Energy without the hot air

22 Microturbines Applications Source: Decuypere and Verstraete, 2005, Micro Turbines from the Standpoint of Potential Users, Micro Gas Turbines (pp )

23 Concluding Remarks Very small microturbines can be commercialised There are many issues to solve and overcome but this is part of the development process When 2030s Thank You! Contact for Lukas Skoufa: