Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies

Transcription

1 Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies Stan Rosinski Program Manager, Renewable Generation 2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review March 3, 2011

2 Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies Key Takeaways Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among Power generation technologies Fuels Renewable resources Balance business objectives with Environmental stewardship Regulatory compliance Future scenarios Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable electricity supply 2

3 The Cost Challenge (in 2007 ce ents) Cents/kWh U.S. Retail Price of Electricity (commercial, industrial, residential) Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years what about the next 40 years?

4 Where Does Our Electricity Come From? 2009 Electric Sector Generation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 4

5 Comparing Generation Technologies 5

6 How Many Plants Does it Take to Power a City? A Sense of Scale Nuclear Coal Natural Gas = = Biomass 1 2 Geothermal Wind Turbines 3 Solar Photovoltaic = = = , Million Annual electricity consumption for 1 million homes (based on average annual household consumption of 12,000 kilowatt hours) 6

7 Which Plants are Used the Most Today? 7

8 Summary Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among Power generation technologies Fuels Renewable resources Balance business objectives with Environmental stewardship Regulatory compliance Future scenarios Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable electricity supply Stakeholder understanding di of these tradeoffs is important t 8

9 Energy Efficiency in Resource Portfolio Planning Omar Siddiqui Director, Energy Efficiency i 2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review March 3, 2011

10 24 States have Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (4 more pending) Source: FERC 10

11 CFLs Contribution to Savings Has Been Huge California, 53% Massachusetts, 52% All sectors Residential 2009 Savings CFL Savings Vermont, 39% Residential New York, 24% Residential All Other Savings EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That! Source: DOE CFL Market Profile

12 EPRI Energy Efficiency Technology Pipeline Accelerating Readiness of Emerging Efficient Technologies Assessment & Lab Testing R&D Field Tests/Demos 10s to 100s of units Coordinated Deployments 1000s of units Full Program Rollout EPRI EE EPRI EE e.g. Northwest Alliance Base Program Demonstration Project rollout of 8,000+ ductless heat pumps Utility EE Programs Technology assessment and validation Instrument extensively Evaluate: estimated deemed savings, installation, demographics, behavior Performance results to refine deemed savings Build supply chain infrastructure Full adoption Conduct M&V 12

13 Energy Efficiency Potential Analysis Methodology Does it create positive net present value for customers? Behavioral barriers; supply constraints Program budget realities and learning curves Economic Potential Maximum Realistic Achievable Achievable Potential Potential Economic Screen Market Screen 13 Program Screen

14 Levelized Cost of Electricity for EE Programs Capital Equipmentq p Infrastructure Incentives Administration Rebates/financing -customers Planning, design, delivery Incentives supply chain Program EM&V Buy downs - manufacturers Other R&D other Technical Factors Unit energy savings (kwh, kw) Useful life of measures Behavioral Factors Usage rate Persistence/replacement Saturation/free-riders Price/Rate induced load changes [1] Levelized Fixed Charge Rate; discount rate, function of organization s weighted average cost of capital 14

15 Energy Efficiency is competitive with supply on a cost basis Cost of US Electric End-Use Efficiency Programs, 2009 All EE Programs Commercial & Industrial Total U.S. West South Midwest Northeast Residential $0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 Cost ($/kwh) Source: CEE State of the Efficiency Program Industry, 12/10/2010. Calculated from Table 5 (US Electric Program Expenditures, 2009) & Table 21 (US Estimated Annual Electric Energy Savings for 2009). All EE Programs also includes programs classified under Low Income and Other, which are not counted under Residential, Commercial, or Industrial. 15

16 Cost & Achievable Potential by Sector & End Use 2025 Medium Forecast Loads & Prices (Pacific Northwest) Avg = 2.4 /kwh Achieveable Potential (MWa) Average Levelized Cost (Cents/kWh) Res. CFL Ls Ind. Non Aluminum m Com m. New & Repl. Equip ip. Com. New & Repl. Lighting Res. Heat Pump Water Heaters Com. New & Replacement HVAC Com. Retrofit HVAC Res. Clothes Washer rs Com. Retrofit Lighting Res. Existin ng Space Cond. (Shel ll) Com. Retrofit Infrastructure re Agriculture Irrigation Res. Water Heaters Res. HVAC System Conversion ns Res. New Space Cond. (Shell ll) Com. Retrofit Equipment Res. Hot Water Heat Recovery Com. New & Rep. Infrastructure re Res. HVAC Sys ystem Commissioning ng Com. Retrofit Shel ell Com. New & Replacement Shel ell Resid idential Refrigerator rs Source: Northwest Power Planning Council 16

17 Energy Efficiency Supply Curve by 2025 Pacific Northwest Average e Megawat tts ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Industrial Irrigation Commercial Residential <1.0 <2.0 <3.0 <4.0 <5.0 <6.0 <7.0 <8.0 <9.0 <10.0 >10.0 Levelized Cost cents per kwh ($2000) Source: Northwest Power Planning Council 17

18 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 18