COMPARISON OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST OF NPP WITH ALTERNATES IN PAKISTAN

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1 COMPARISON OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST OF NPP WITH ALTERNATES IN PAKISTAN IAEA INPRO dialogue forum 8 toward nuclear energy system sustainability: economics, resource availability and institutional arrangements Vienna, Austria August 26-29, 2014 Muhammad Saleemullah, Applied Systems Analysis Division, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

2 Contents 2 Some basic facts Current status Energy situation Electricity situation Nuclear power status Peak demand forecast Energy sources for power generation Comparison of alternate options

3 Pakistan: Basic Facts Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world having about 183 million population (Urban share: 37%) Population growth : 2.0% per year GDP : 223,378 Million US dollar GDP growth : 3.7% per year Per capita income : 1,340 US dollar Total primary energy supply: 64.6 MTOE Per capita energy supply : 0.35 TOE Electricity generation : 98,894 GWh Per capita electricity consumption: 420 kwh

4 Installed Capacity May Total: 25,023 MW Sources: i) State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA ii) Newspaper information.

5 Electricity Generation Mix Total: 98.9 TWh Source: State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA

6 Nuclear Power (Operational) 6 KANUPP C-1 C-2 Contractor CGE (Canada) CNNC (China) CNNC (China) Capacity (Gross) 137/100 MW 325 MW 325 MW Start of Construction Aug 1966 Aug 1993 Dec 2005 Commercial Operation Dec 1972 Sep 2000 May 2011

7 Nuclear Power (Under Construction) 7 Pressurized Water Reactors, 2x340 MW C-3 C-4 Contractor CNNC (China) CNNC (China) Contract Signing 20 Nov Nov 2008 Contract Effective Date 31 Mar Mar 2010 Groundbreaking 5 Aug Apr 2011 First Concrete Pouring 4 Mar Dec 2011 IAEA Safeguards Approval 8 Mar Mar 2011 Commercial Operation (as per contract) Dec 2016 Oct 2017

8 Peak Demand Forecast (Regression Analysis 2011) 8 Fiscal Year Low Medium High ,223 20,223 20, ,867 29,414 31, ,739 45,398 50, ,694 68,736 79, ,525 97, , , , ,373 (MW) Source: Electricity Demand Forecast based on Regression Analysis (Period 2011 to 2035), Office of G.M. Planning Power NTDC/PEPCO WAPDA House Lahore, February 2011

9 Options available for Power Generation 9 Hydro (Potential =55,000 MW; Already exploited =7,500 MW) Gas-fired (Gas insufficient to meet current requirements) Nuclear (Target of 8,800 MW installed capacity by 2030) Wind (Potential =~50,000 MW) Solar (Potential high; techno-economic issues) Oil-fired (Small reserves; expensive option) Coal (Resource ~ 186 billion tonnes; 98% of the resource is lignite with more than 40% moisture) 9

10 Main Financial Assumptions for Future Plants (Country Specific) 10 Discount Rate (State Bank of Pakistan s Discount Rate) = 10% Interest Rate Local Loan (SBP rate + 2% spread) = 12.0% Return on Equity (Offered to Thermal Plants) = 16% Debt Equity Ratio = 80 : 20 Export Credit (at 3.90% p.a., CIRR for NPPs) Average Electricity Sale Price ( ) = 85% of Contractor FE Cost = Cents 12.0/kWh (Different tariff for different electricity consumers. Sale price is lower than generation cost different is provides by the Government as subsidy) Average Electricity Generation Cost IPPs ( ) = Cents 14.9/kWh Average Electricity Generation Cost Thermal Plants ( ) Interest during Construction (IDC) = Cents13.9/kWh = Capitalized 10

11 Future Nuclear Power Plants (Plant Specific) 11 Plant Size = 1000 MW Construction Starts = 2015 Construction Period = 7 Years Commissioning Year = 2022 Plant Capacity Factor = 85% (Gen III + ) Overnight Investment Cost = US $ 4,389/kW in 2015 Phasing of Investment Cost = 7%, 13%, 20%, 22%, 16%, 13%, 9% Contractor Share in Cost = 85% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%) Owner Share in Cost = 15% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%) Plant Life = 40 Years Fuel Cost = 0.64 Cents/kWh O & M Cost (including Decommissioning & Waste Disposal) = 0.70 Cents/kWh Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific 11

12 Future Coal-fired Power Plants (Plant Specific) 12 Plant Size = 1000 MW Construction Starts = 2018 Construction Period = 4 Years Commissioning Year = 2022 Plant Capacity Factor = 80% Overnight Investment Cost (Brown Coal ) = US $ 2,704/kW in 2018 Phasing of Investment Cost = 33%, 33%, 14%, 20% Contractor Share in Cost = 70% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%) Owner Share in Cost = 30% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%) Plant Life = 30 Years Plant Thermal Efficiency = 40% Fuel Cost (Imported Coal) = US $ 129/ton Fuel Cost (Local Coal) = US $ 103/ton O & M Cost = 0.60 Cents/kWh 12

13 Upfront Tariff by NEPRA Upfront Tariff by NEPRA Comparison of Levelized Electricity Generation Cost 13 All Cost and Revenues are in Constant Dollars Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific 13

14 Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options (INPRO : UR1, Cost of Energy) 14 Plant Type Overnight Cost LEGC (Units) ($/kw) (Cents/kWh) NPP 4, UR1 AL1.1 LEGC of Nuclear is comparable Coal (Local) 2, Coal (Imported) 2, Notes: 1. Government has set a target of 8800 MW installed capacity of nuclear by Till now government is the only investor in Nuclear Energy. Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific 14

15 Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options (INPRO : UR2, Ability to Finance) 15 UR2 UR2 AL2.1.1 IRR less than Alternate Plant Type IRR ROI NPV (Units) (%) (%) ($ M) NPP ,116 Coal (Local) ,265 Coal (Imported) AL2.1.2 ROI better than Alternate UR2 AL2.1.3 NPV is Comparable Notes: 1. Average sale price of electricity was US Cents 10.2/kWh in As sale price is subsidized by the Government, so estimated average generation cost of thermal power plants (US Cents 13.9/kWh in ) is used for analysis. Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific

16 Thank You

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