11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 1 Photovoltaik und globale Energieversorgung Arnulf Jäger-Waldau European Commission, DG JRC, Ispra Institute for Energy Renewable Energies Disclaimer 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 2 The capacity numbers were collected from Press Announcements of over 300 different companies with a cut-off date End of April 2011. The capacity figures have a high uncertainty due to the different methods of determining them. Nevertheless I used them to show what is discussed in the public. The use of the material is permitted as long as the sources are acknowledged. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information.
11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 3 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions Remark 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 4 Energy Unit used throughout the Presentation: For electrical & thermal energy TWh Divide by 10: = Number of 1.3 GW Nuclear Reactors = Bio. Revenue
Solar Energy Potential 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 5 Theoretical: 1.2 10 5 TW solar energy potential (1.76 10 5 TW striking Earth; 0.30 Global mean albedo) Practical: 600 TW solar energy potential (50 TW - 1500 TW depending on land fraction etc.; WEA 2000) Onshore electricity generation potential of 90 TW (with 15% conversion efficiency): Photosynthesis: 90 TW Potential of Solar Energy 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 6 Annual renewables Total Non-renewables Analysis in Perez, Fall 2008, Architecture and Daylight, Velux Magazine
PV in the Energy Context 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 7 Energy Needs: (TPES) 2008: 514 EJ/year = 16.3 TW 2020: 628 EJ/year = 19.9 TW 2050: > 1,047 EJ/year = > 33.2 TW Until 2050 new capacity for 16.9 TW needed! Need to build 34 new 1 GW plants per month Electricity 2006: 2.30 TW (14%); 2020: 2.99 TW (15%) Current scenarios PV 2010: 0. 45 GW; 2020: 0.11 TW; 2050: 0.5 TW Photovoltaics 2020: 0.5% TPES, 3.7% Electricity TW: continuous necessary energy, i.e. every second Source: IEA World Energy Statistics and World Energy Outlook EPIA, SET for 2020 Current Scenarios 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 8 Year 2010 [GW] 2020 [GW] 2030 [GW] 2050 [GW] Actual Installations 39 Greenpeace* (reference scenario) Greenpeace* ([r]evolution scenario) Greenpeace* (advanced scenario) IEA Reference Scenario IEA ACT Map IEA Blue Map IEA PV Technology Roadmap 14 18 21 10 22 27 27 * 2010 values are extrapolated as only 2007 and 2015 values are given 80 335 439 30 80 130 210 184 1,036 1,330 < 60 130 230 870 420 2,968 4,318 (0.5 TW) non competitive 600 1,150 3,155
11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 9 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions World-wide PV Production 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 10 25,000 Annual PV Production [MW] 20,000 15,000 10,000 Rest of World United States Taiwan PR China Europe Japan 2010: estimates 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Annual Production/Production Capacity [MW] Announced Capacity Increases 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 11 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Production 2009 Japan China USA India Estimated Production 2010 Europe Taiwan South Korea ROW Planned Capacity 2009 Planned Capacity 2010 Planned Capacity 2012 Planned Capacity 2015 Announced Capacity Increases 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 12 Production Capacity [MW/year] 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Crystalline Wafer Silicon Thin Films 0 2006 2009 2010 2012 2015
Grid connected installations 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 13 Annual Photovoltaic Installations [MWp] 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Rest of Europe Italy Spain Germany Rest of World China United States Japan 2010 estimates 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Data source: PV News, Photon International, Navigant Consulting, i-suppli and own analysis Grid connected installations 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 14 Cumulative Photovoltaic Installations [MWp] 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Rest of Europe Italy Spain Germany Rest of World China United States Japan 2010 estimates 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Data source: PV News, Photon International, Navigant Consulting, i-suppli and own analysis
11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 15 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions Energy Pay Back Time Development 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 16 1977: 6.4 years for silicon module = 12.5% (US manufacturing) 2006: Module + Frame* + BOS Radiation - 1700 kwh/m 2 /year and 1000 kwh/m 2 /year = 5.5 14% : 1.1 2.1 years 1.9 3.6 years 2009: Module + Frame* + BOS Radiation - 1700 kwh/m 2 /year and 1000 kwh/m 2 /year = 8.5 14% : 0.8 1.3 years 1.4 2.2 years 2020: Module + Frame* + BOS Radiation - 1700 kwh/m 2 /year and 1000 kwh/m 2 /year = 12 19% : 0.7 0.95 years 1.2 1.6 years Data sources: J. Lindmayer et al, Report SX/11/3, Solarex Corp. 1977; C. Hu et al, Solar Cells, McGraw-Hill, 1983; V. Fthenakis et al, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 2006; E.A. Alsema et al, 21 st EUPVSEC, 2006; M.J. de Wild-Scholten, 21 st EUPVSEC, 2006; Strategic Research Agenda, European PV Technology Platform, 2007; M. De Wild-Scheuten, Thin Film Industry Forum Berlin 2009 and Crystal Clear Final Event Munich 2009; V. Fthenakis et al, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 2009
Energy Needs for 160GW production 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 17 2006 technology mix: 400 TWh 1.5% of total 2020 electricity 40% of PV generated 2020 electricity 2009 technology mix: 270 TWh 1.0% of total 2020 electricity 27% of PV generated 2020 electricity 2020 technology mix: 190 TWh 0.7% of total 2020 electricity 19% of PV generated 2020 electricity 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 18 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions
Water Needs for Electricity Production 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 19 Figure: Sandia Nat. Lab. Some Water Facts 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 20 Water Requirements for Thermoelectric Power 44% of European Freshwater withdrawl 39 % of US Freshwater withdrawl Approx. 3 to 4% of world Freshwater consumption 19% of Electricity use in California are related to water use 13% of natural Gas Demand in CA is related to water use Data sources: EEA Water report California Energy Commission DoE
Water Facts 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 21 Current Water Requirements per year for a 1 GW Factory Cooling water per year: 14-19 10 6 m 3 Cooling water accounts for approx 25% of Total Annual Facility Energy Consumption Raw water consumption: 1.75-3 10 6 m 3 Raw water consumption for 160GW annual production: 280-480 10 6 m 3 Equivalent to water need of 140-240 TWh of Thermoelectricity BUT over 25years lifetime water consumption of PV electricity would be about < 0.12 m 2 /MWh Data sources: SEMI PV Group m+w zander, R. Gattereder, Presentation photon Munich 2007 Water Needs for Power Plants 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 22 Fuel Water needs for fuel [m 3 /MWh primary] Conversion technology Water withdrawl [m 3 /MWh] Water consumption [m 3 /MWh] Coal 0.5-2 thermoelectric plant 1-185 2-6 Oil 15-30 thermoelectric plant 1-185 2-3 Natural Gas > 0.1 thermoelectric plant 0.3-74 0.3-0.7 Nuclear 0.5-2 thermoelectric plant 31-75 1.5-3 Hydro reservoir + dam 0-210 Hydro river run neglectable Wind N.A. turbine 0 0 Solar N.A. CSP 2-3.5 2-3.5 Solar N.A. Photovoltaics 0.1 > 0.1 Data source: VWRRC Special report No SR46-2009 DoE, Report to Congress, Energy Demands on Water Resources 2006
11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 23 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions Solar Economics 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 24 First-Order Solar Estimates for 1000 TWh/yr Output in 2025 First case: 1 kw PV produces 1 MWh/year 1000 GW PV systems needed Capital cost: At 1.5/W*, 1.5 trillion through 2025 (replaced every 60? years)** Operating cost: @ 15/kW-yr: 10 billion/yr (~0.01 /kwh) Second case: 1 kw PV produces 1.5 MWh/year ~ 670 GW PV systems needed Capital cost: At 1.5/W*, 1.0 trillion through 2025 (replaced every 60? years)** Operating cost: @ 15/kW-yr: 6.7 billion/yr (< 0.01 /kwh) * Weighted average now to 2025, non residential systems ** 0.5% annual degradation ignored
Solar Economics 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 25 System annual capital cost at 5% loan (low-risk rate): Case 1: 75 billion/yr (Capital &Interest) 0.075 /kwh Case 2: 50 billion/yr (Capital &Interest) 0.05 /kwh System O&M: 0.01 /kwh Transmission and back-up: ~ 0.03 /kwh (ouch) Raw cost of solar electricity (2025) : Case 1: 0.115 /kwh Case 2: 0.09 /kwh Conventional fuels might be higher than 11 c/kwh by then 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 26 Energy Needs Photovoltaics Overview Energy Pay Back Water Needs Solar Economics Solar Vision Conclusions
Cumulative installed capacity [GW] Scenario comparisons 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 27 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Set for 2020 + vision extrapolation 2020 2030 2050 Greenpeace/EREC (2010) IEA PV Roadmap (2010) Sources: IEA PV Roadmap 2010, Greenpeace energy [r]evolution, 2010, EPIA SET for 2020 Scenario comparisons 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 28 PV generated electricty [TWh] 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 2020 2030 2050 1 Set for 2020 + vision extrapolation Greenpeace/EREC (2010) IEA PV Roadmap (2010) Sources: IEA PV Roadmap 2010 & WEO 2009, Greenpeace energy [r]evolution, 2010, EPIA SET for 2020 Final electricity consumtion IEA Reference Scenario (2009)
PV in the Energy Context 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 29 Energy Needs: (TPES) 2008: 514 EJ/year = 16.3 TW 2020: 628 EJ/year = 19.9 TW 2050: > 1,047 EJ/year = > 33.2 TW Until 2050 new capacity for 16.9 TW needed! Need to build 34 new 1 GW plants per month Solar Vision 2050: 2.6 TW Photovoltaics 2050: 7.8% TPES, 45 % Electricity TW: continuous necessary energy, i.e. every second Source: IEA World Energy Statistics and World Energy Outlook EPIA, SET for 2020 Conclusions 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 30 Growth of PV electricity installations is much faster than predicted by most scenarios! Adaptation of current grid structures to accommodate larger share of de-centralised RES is needed to enable a large scale use of PV electricity. Only increasing markets ensure that PV electricity prices are continuously declining! For the next decade solar PV will still need support The European Union is currently the largest body with a legally binding target of 20% GHG reductions and 20% RES use by 2020! PV electricity is an important building block to realise a decarbonised energy supply
Conclusions 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 31 Energy Pay Back Time of PV Systems has decreased significantly Are the expected further EPBT decreases ambitious enough? Reduction of water consumption should be a top priority Not only because of environmental, but also out of economic reasons Photovoltaics has a huge environmental potential, but it won t be achieved with business as usual! Photo by Steve Locke Thank you for your attention! 11/05/2011 EKZ Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich 32