Il fotovoltaico dopo il V Conto Energia verso la grid parity
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1 Il fotovoltaico dopo il V Conto Energia verso la grid parity Niccolò Cusumano Università Bocconi, IEFE Bolzano, 19/09/2013
2 03 Good old times? USA 48 billion $ China 51 Germany 3129 Italy billion $ 12 India Source: REN21
3 A changing landscape GWh Hydro RES Total Thermal Total electricity request 12 per. Mov. Avg. (RES Total) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total electricity request) gen-05 apr-05 lug-05 ott-05 gen-06 apr-06 lug-06 ott-06 gen-07 apr-07 lug-07 ott-07 gen-08 apr-08 lug-08 ott-08 gen-09 apr-09 lug-09 ott-09 gen-10 apr-10 lug-10 ott-10 gen-11 apr-11 lug-11 ott-11 gen-12 apr-12 lug-12 ott-12 gen-13 apr-13 lug-13 Source: Terna, monthly report
4 National Renewable Energy Action Plan target for PV by 2020 and the necessary yearly market to reach this 2020 target (linear projection). Official target vs reality Table 2 - NREAPs vs. reality of PV markets in the EU 27 (MW) Cumulative installed capacity in 2012 NREAPs 2020 target for PV Necessary yearly market until 2020 Target reached in Market in 2011 Market in 2012 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Rest of EU 27* Total EU , , ,003 32,411 1, , , , , , , ,860 51,753 2, , , , , , reached in 2012 reached in 2011 reached in 2012 reached in 2010 reached in reached in reached in reached in 2011 reached in reached in ,756 7, , , ,079 7, , ,672 Source: EPIA (2013)
5 The expansion came at cost global incetives to PV $ billions (source:
6 The current debate The current debate is all around incentives and their costs Is this the real problem? Should we focus instead on how integrate renewable into the electricity market? General duties other than A3 component 2% Network services 15% RES incentives (A3) 17% Taxes 13% Energy 53% Energy price for an average consumer, AEEG
7 Is the demand, stupid! (Electricity demand in Italy, baseline scenario, TERNA) 380,0 370,0 360,0 TWh 350,0 340,0 330,0 320, ,0 300, Source: terna
8 Energia scambiata in borsa Is is still a market? Energia scambiata in borsa Energia collocata in borsa dal GSE Altro Rinnovabile GWh 791 GWh 596 GWh (28,3%) 180 (30,1%) (58,4%) 220 (36,0%) 181 (29,6%) (65,6%) 285 (36,0%) 196 (24,8%) (60,8%) giovedì 25 aprile 2013 domenica 19 maggio 2013 venerdì 24 maggio 2013 Aggregato Fotovoltaico Aggregato Altro Eolico Rilevante Idrico Fluente Solare Rilevante Termico CIP6 2% 0% 0% 24% 12% 24% 2% 15% 47% 43% 2% 0% 16% 24% 13% 45% 2% 0% 18% 24% 13% 43% Source: GSE
9 Source: GSE Peak shaving Energia scambiata in borsa e prezzi Confronto Maggio 2006 vs Maggio 2013 venerdì 26 maggio 2006 venerdì 24 maggio MW Source: Althesis /MWh Prezzo orario 2006 Prezzo orario GWh Solar (red) vs Non-solar prices (blue) Energia scambiata 2006 /MWh 2006 vs ,9 72,4 Prezzo medio orario s Prez orar
10 PV in Germany Source:
11 RES impact on energy prices Cost of incentives Price of energy RES alter market structure Merit order on which market prices are based does still reflect the new reality? Are we leading towards capacity markets? We should improve intraday market liquidity and build interconnections Source: GSE
12 Grid parity, a moving target
13 Evolution of PV energy cost /W Source: EPIA
14 LCOE PV scenarios LCOE (2010 USD/MWh) EPIA (advance) EPIA (reference) EPIA (moderate) IEA (PCEG) IEA (Roadmap) Source: IRENA FIGURE 6.1: LCOE SCENARIOS FOR PV SYSTEMS, 2010 TO 2030.
15 Module prices evolution Crystalline Trend from Trend from modules Origin / Wp February 13 March 12 Germany % % China % % Japan % % Thin film modules CdS/CdTe % % a- Si % % a- Si/µ- Si % %
16 Ground mounted Industrial Commercial Residential European PV cumulative capacity segmentation by Figure 10 - European PV cumulative capacity segmentation by country in 2012 (%) country in 2012 (%) 0 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Ground mounted Industrial Commercial Residential Source: EPIA (2013)
17 What kind of perspectives Residential market: Go beyond distinction between renewable and energy efficiency It is important to keep a stable regulatory framework Close the gap between sell prices (prezzo zonale) and buy price (tariffa) Industrial market Improve netmetering Trader model
18 Does it make sense to produce outside China? Most of chines producers are struggling due to an overcapacity and deteriorating credit conditions Modules represents a fraction of total value of plant (30%-40%) We still don t know what will be the winning technology in future, some new markets are dominated by European enterprises
19 L evoluzione della tecnologia solare fotovoltaica Best Research (Laboratory) Cell Efficiencies Prima generazione Terza generazione Seconda generazione Source:NREL
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