Economic Analysis of Solar Power: Achieving Grid Parity

Transcription

1 Economic Analysis of Solar Power: Achieving Grid Parity Annie Hazlehurst Joint MBA / MS Environment & Resources Candidate Stanford Graduate School of Business 1

2 Questions to be Answered What are the markets for solar? How do we think about the cost of solar relative to other power sources? What do cost profiles need to be in order to achieve grid parity? Where is the industry today and where is it headed? 2

3 3 Primary Types of Solar Power Photovoltaics (PV) Concentrating PV Solar Thermal 3

4 3 Primary PV Markets Today Residential Rooftop Commercial Rooftop Groundmounted (Usually utility scale) 4

5 2 Emerging PV Markets Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) Enabled by flexible form-factor Rural Electrification Requires cheaper batteries and panels for wide-spread adoption Also niche applications: calculators, satellites, remote power, etc. 5

6 Electricity Supply Chain 6

7 Cost of Electricity Varies By Geography: Ranging From 6-20 cents/kwh in the US 7

8 WA: 15% by 2020* OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)* 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) Incentives Driving Adoption Renewables Portfolio Standards MN: 25% by 2025 MT: 15% by 2015 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017 MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015* NY: 24% by 2013 NV: 25% by 2025* IA: 105 MW OH: 25% by 2025 CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* WV: 25% by 2025* IL: 25% by 2025 CA: 33% by 2020 UT: 20% by 2025* KS: 20% by 2020 VA: 15% by 2025* AZ: 15% by 2025 NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) MO: 15% by 2021 NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) ME: 30% by 2000 New RE: 10% by 2017 NH: 23.8% by 2025 MA: 15% by % annual increase (Class I Renewables) RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 23% by 2020 PA: 18% by 2020 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 MD: 20% by 2022 DE: 20% by 2019* DC: 20% by 2020 HI: 40% by 2030 State renewable portfolio standard State renewable portfolio goal Solar water heating eligible TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement * Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources 29 states & DC have an RPS 6 states have goals Source: 8

9 Solar s Competitiveness Depends on Sunlight 9

10 Measuring Efficiency: Capacity Factor Capacity Factor = average power. max power capability The higher the capacity factor, the more efficient the plant Solar cells have a capacity factor of roughly 18% Compare that to coal plants that can achieve >80% 10

11 How Do You Calculate Cost/KwH? Wp: Watt-Peak. Amount of power generated with one sun of radiation, 1,000 W/m2 $/Wp: Includes module, BOS, and installation $/KwH (or Levelized Cost Of Electricity) requires more information: LCOE = n=25 Σ NPV(Cap + Fin + O&M) n=1 Σ kwh 11

12 Sample Calculation Of $/KWh Sample Assumptions C-Si Capital Cost per kw (includes installation) $5,500 Nameplate Plant Size (KW) 1,000 Total Capital Cost $5,500,000 Life of Asset (years) 25 Construction time (months) 6 Tax Rate 38% Inflation annual 1.50% Inverter capex per watt $0.15 Inverter capex cost $150,000 O&M cost per MWh $8.00 Years between Replacing Inverter 10 Utilization Factor 0.00% Annual Degradation 0.50% Carbon Tax (Credit) per MWh $0.00 ITC 30% WACC 0.0% FINANCING ASSUMPTIONS Risk free rate 5.00% % debt 60% Spread over RFR 3.00% Cost of Debt 8.00% % equity 40% Equity Beta 1.5 Expected return of market 10.00% Cost of equity 12.50% WACC 8.0% Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 12

13 Sample Calculation Of $/KWh (C ont) BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS Annual inflation 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Fuel cost per MWh O&M cost per MWh $ 8.00 $ 8.12 $ 8.24 $ 8.37 $ 8.49 $ 8.62 $ 8.75 $ 8.88 $ 9.01 $ 9.15 $ 9.28 $ 9.42 $ 9.56 $ Carbon cost (revenue) per MWh Incentives, other BASE CASE CASH FLOWS AT Fuel costs AT O&M costs - (4,043) (8,165) (8,247) (8,328) (8,411) (8,495) (8,579) (8,664) (8,750) (8,837) (8,925) (9,013) (10,248) Carbon Tax Tax benefits: - Depreciation Effect 418, , , , , , PTC/ITC 1,650, Other incentives Construction Costs (5,500,000) (174,081) Terminal Value Cash Flow to Enterprise (3,432,000) 664, , , , ,889 (8,495) (8,579) (8,664) (8,750) (182,918) (8,925) (9,013) (10,248) - Discount Factor Present Value of Cash Flow (3,432,000) 615, , , ,002 76,235 (5,360) (5,013) (4,689) (4,386) (84,915) (3,837) (3,589) (1,505) Net Present Value of Cash Flow (2,232,688) BASE CASE PLANT PRODUCTION Capacity (KW) ,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Utilization / capacity factor (%) 0.0% 18.3% 18.2% 18.2% 18.1% 18.0% 17.9% 17.8% 17.7% 17.6% 17.5% 17.4% 17.3% 16.3% Annual degradation 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Production (KW) Annual production (MWh) ,598 1,590 1,582 1,574 1,566 1,558 1,551 1,543 1,535 1,527 1,520 1,424 - Discount Factor Present Value of Energy Produced ,371 1,263 1,164 1, Net Present Value of Energy (MWh) 15,750 Levelized Cost of Energy ($/kwh) $0.14 Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 13

14 Levelized cost comparisons Capital cost per kw Capacity Factor Fuel Cost per MWh O&M per MWh Solar PV (Crystalline) 5,500 18% $0 $8 25 Solar PV (Thin Film) 4,500 18% $0 $10 25 Fuel Cell DG 3,250 90% $45 $32 20 Solar Thermal 4,000 25% $0 $8 20 Nat Gas (CCGT) 1,000 85% $43 $6 40 Coal 2,750 85% $30 $10 45 Nuclear 6,000 92% $7 $17 40 Wind 2,500 35% $0 $10 25 Geothermal 3,500 95% $0 $25 20 Life (years) Capital cost: raw material cost (steel, silicon, etc.) Capacity factor: efficiency, utilization rate (cells cannot compare to plants) Fuel cost: commodity pricing (oil, natural gas, water ZERO for solar!) O&M: labor, maintenance (location, durability) Lifetime: Depreciation (tax benefits) Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 14

15 Cost of solar vs. other energy sources $/Kwh $0.15 $0.12 $0.09 $0.06 $0.03 $0.14 $0.12 $0.09 $0.08 $0.06 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00 Solar PV (Crystalline) Solar PV (Thin Film) Solar Thermal Fuel Cell DG Nuclear Coal Nat Gas (CCGT) Wind Geothermal Efficiency Remember that: This is just the generation cost and does not include transmission, overhead or emissions capture Utilities use a blend of different options depending on conditions Solar costs include PTC/ITC incentives Crystalline costs are ~$0.24/kwh without incentives Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 15

16 Solar is Peak Times Provides power during peak (most expensive) times of day Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 16

17 Utility Dispatch Curve - NorthEast Dispatch curve utilities turn on cheapest variable cost power first Cost of the highest needed to meet demand sets the market price Source: Credit Suisse First Boston 17

18 Solar can be Competitive Today at Peak Average cost over 25 yrs of PV cell electricity including 8% interest payments: $0.24/kWh Peak (afternoon) Wholesale Rates: ***Average over last year $0.25/kWh Wholesale electricity prices have dropped >50% since last summer it s hard to compete with cheap coal and natural gas Pricing above does not include incentives Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Good Energies 18

19 The Ultimate Goal: Grid Parity Source: NREL, HSBC 19

20 The Path to a Solar World With a 10% efficient PV system, we could supply all the US energy needs with a square of land some 400km on a side (Cover Texas and Oklahoma pand handles, part of Kanas and a slice of Colorado). Engineering & Science Publication 2007 $6.00/W Compete with peak times, ~10% of total usage $3.00/W Compete with most natural gas powered generation, ~25% of total usage $1.00/W Compete with coal, >75% of total usage $0.50/W Cheapest source of energy, solar powers the world Source: Various **Costs ($/W) are full BOS cost 20

21 $/Wp Ranges From $4-9 Depending On Type Of Installation Representative Costs, 2008 Residential Commercial Utility System size 3.8KW 210KW 10MW $/Wp, in US $8.98 $6.68 $4.93 /kwh - Phoenix, AZ /kwh - Boston, MA Costs for 2009 will be even lower, some installations are being done as low as $3 / watt Source: SAM model, built by DOE and Sandia National Labs. Costs are representative of realistic figures, not average costs from sample installations. Does not include incentives. 21

22 Cost Components of a System $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 $/Wp Prices to Installer, 210 KW Commercial Rooftop System, SAM 2008 $6.67 $0.79 $0.19 $0.68 $0.19 $4.83 Modules Inverter Installation labor BOS Miscellaneous Total Source: SAM model, built by DOE and Sandia National Labs. Costs are representative of realistic figures, not average costs from sample installations. Does not include incentives. 22

23 Cost Components: Si vs Thin Film Source: HSBC Global Research 23

24 Lay of the Land Technology Efficiency (1) BOS Cost ($/w) Module Cost ($/w) Space Requirements Materials Constraints Distributed / Centralized Primary End Markets 2008 Market Size Crystalline PV 12-20% Low to Medium Si - abundant Distributed Thin Film PV 6-12% Medium to High Te, In - rare Both Multi-Junction / Concentrator 20-25% Medium Ge - rare Both Rooftop - Residential and Commercial Rooftop/Ground - Resid/Comm/Sm. Utility Ground - Comm., Small Utility $25 billion $7 billion $0.4 billion Solar Thermal 20-30% 3-4 NA High (3) steel, etc. - abundant Centralized Ground - Utility $1 billion Organic (2) 2-3% NA NA NA C - abundant Distributed BIPV, others negligible 1) Represents module efficiency - typically 2-4% efficiency is lost going from cells to modules for c-pv and thin film; multi-junction losses are 10-20% in the concentrators 2) This technology is in very early stages of develoment, numbers shown reflect what early companies such as Konarka and Plextronics have been able to achieve 3) Requires a lot of land because can only achieve cost competitiveness at large scale, but has the highest energy per area density of any solar technology Source: Lux Research, Cleantech Network, various 24

25 What We Need to Do Drive down costs Increase efficiency Reduce materials usage / use cheaper, abundant materials Scale and standardization Smarter design and automation Vertical and horizontal integration Increase adoption Access to financing Creative business models Policies, ie price on carbon, RPS, etc. Source: Various 25

26 How Fast Does It Need to Grow? Growth of an Industry World electricity consumption (MM kwh) 14,787,000 19,045,000 21,699,000 24,371,000 27,133,000 30,116,000 Solar intalled capacity (GW) ,528 2,461 Solar MM kwh 2,160 36, , ,969 1,833,816 2,953,379 % Growth NA 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Solar Generation 0% 1% 3% 7% 10% Growth Rate Sensitivity Compound Annual Growth Rate ( ) 10% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% % Global Energy Powered by Solar <1% 1% 9% 63% 400% Source: EIA, Jeffries, Morgan Stanley Research, Goldman Sachs Research 26

27 How Fast Can It Grow? Google grew revenues at a 80% CAGR from (50% from 06-08) 10% CAGR predicted by analysts going forward Global mobile users grew at 25% CAGR over the last decade 3x installed capacity next year: Would require 15% of the world s proven tellerium reserves / 7% of estimated reserves Or 20% of the world s estimated indium reserves Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Jeffries 27

28 How Fast Will It Grow? The solar industry already grew at a 30-40% CAGR over the last decade Solar production grew 80% in 2008, expected to fall 33% in 2009 Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Jeffries 28

29 Current State of Solar Industry Source: Jeffries Clean Tech Primer

30 Pricing Declines Will Continue Module costs have fallen roughly 80% over the last 25 years Expect 25% yoy 09 Chinese producers expected to get c-si module costs to ~$1.30 / watt on new lines Many companies will sell below cost in the next few years due to supply glut Political backlash is a threat of falling prices, ie Spain Source: Solar Economics Forum 2009, Prime Star Solar 30

31 Who s Making, Who s Buying 33% of supply came from China Expect >30% decline in sales this year Spain expected to account for only 5% by 2010 and the U.S. 20% Source: Navigant Consulting, SolarBuzz 31

32 Increase in Utility Scale Systems PPAs, RPS, stimulus financing, economies of scale all pushing solar markets to larger systems Spain and other countries currently cap system size Long run costs must decline further for utilities to adopt solar independently of policy mandates Source: Emerging Energy Research 32

33 VC Solar Investments 3Q09 Solar was 40% of VC investments in clean tech for Compared to 30% in 2009 YTD Smaller rounds, fewer companies funded Is solar saturated? still represents only 0.7% of total energy generation and offers an abundant source of fuel Source: Cleantech Network Annual Report

34 What s Hot, What s Not? Thin film received the most funding (48%) in 2008, Solar Thermal the second most at 19% 80% went to CIGS Shift to utility scale projects like solar thermal as well as balance of system and service model plays Source: Cleantech Network Annual Report 2008, Navigant Consulting

35 What and Who to Watch The big players First Solar, Sunpower, Suntech, etc. Low cost or high quality that will enable them to capture margins Emerging technologies Thin film, solar thermal Chinese manufacturing Access to low cost financing will drive capacity building Industry consolidation First Solar acquired OptiSolar MEMC acquiring SunEdison Materials access Tellerium and Indium could be constrained Creative business models and financing SolarCity Smart grid integrated plays Global policies and incentives Many European countries are capping subsidies by industry size Impact of stimulus funding in the U.S. 35

36 The way we use energy strengthens our adversaries and threatens our planet President Obama 1/20/09 36