GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT Bloomberg EMEA Summit London, 12 October 2015 Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory Board Twitter: @mliebreich
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004 14 ($BN) 400 600 350 500 300 400 250 300 200 150 200 100 100 50 0 0 7% -7% -8% 12% 35% 12% -9% 27% 50% 30% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2
AMER NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR 2004-2015 ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3
APAC NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR 2004-2015 ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael 13 October Liebreich 2015 BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 4
EMEA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR 2004-2015 ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5
SPAIN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) 12.6 8.6 5.8 5.4 5.7 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 2.9 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.6 1.01.2 1.2 1.00.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.9 0.80.9 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.10.20.1 0.3 0.9 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6
ITALY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) 9.3 7.7 8.4 7.1 6.8 5.7 5.4 4.8 2.8 3.7 4.0 3.63.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.20.30.20.20.20.2 0.20.2 0.6 0.50.4 0.60.9 1.6 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.90.8 0.8 0.40.2 0.2 0.3 0.40.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7
GERMANY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) 15.0 13.0 11.6 11.0 10.7 9.0 8.9 8.9 7.0 7.5 7.1 6.9 7.67.7 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.1 4.1 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.73.4 5.1 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.4 4.8 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.0 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.5 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.7 1.92.0 1.5 2.1 1.0-1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8
FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) 0.20.10.10.1 0.3 0.80.8 0.6 1.01.2 0.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.00.7 1.20.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.70.60.7 0.91.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9
UK NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-2015 ($BN) 7.9 5.3 5.3 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.01.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 4.0 4.4 2.1 3.4 2.0 3.1 2.2 4.0 1.8 4.1 3.9 2.5 4.0 3.9 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLES PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 11
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION. Competitive auctions Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 12
SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION Competitive auctions. Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only SUBSIDY BUDGET Capped Frozen / no new support Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 13
PRINCIPAL STATE- AND NATIONAL-LEVEL POLICY MECHANISMS FOR RENEWABLES PROJECTS (IN FORCE OR PROPOSED) Market-based mechanisms eg, auctions, renewable energy certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards Feed-in tariff/premiums Country switched to auction or tender programme since 2010 14
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY 2014 ($/MWH) Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat Wind - offshore PV - thin film PV - c-si PV - c-si tracking Biomass - anaerobic digestion Biomass - gasification Biomass - incineration Municipal solid waste Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Small hydro Large hydro Landfill gas Geothermal - flash plant Natural gas CCGT Coal fired CHP Nuclear PV projects as low as $58/MWh Onshore wind as low as $37/MWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 1037 844 2013 central H1 2014 central Fossil technologies: US China Europe Australia Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15
THE ROAD TO PARIS Image: UNFCCC 16
G7 JUNE 2015 SCHLOSS ELMAU Emissions must be cut 40-70% by mid-century and phased out entirely by 2100 Picture: Wikimedia 17
LAUDATO SI DEMAND SIDE There is an urgent need to develop sources of renewable energy. Pope Francis Picture: Wikimedia 18
THE ECONOMIST COVER, SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE DECEMBER 2014 Source: The Economist 19
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000 2015 ($2015 / BARREL) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 or? 20 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Note: The Green line represents the WTI Spot price, and has been adjusted for inflation and is represented here in real 2015 US$ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, World Bank 20
OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, 2004 15 (US$/MMBTU) 20 18 16 20 18 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 2004 2005 2006 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NBP (UK) Henry Hub (US) BAFA (Germany border price for Russian gas) North East Asia LNG Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into the Northeast Asia market. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ICAP, Platts 21
AN AGE OF ENERGY PLENTY AGE OF COMPETITION 22
US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, 2000 2015 BCFD 50 45 40 30 20 10 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Marcellus Marcellus Haynesville Haynesville Eagle Ford Fayetteville Eagle Ford Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Barnett Bakken Woodford AntrimBakken UticaAntrim Rest of US 'shale' Utica Gas rigs online Other Shale Oil rigs online 0 0 2000 2000 2002 2005 2004 2006 2010 2008 2010 2012 2015 2014 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA 23
AVERAGE LATERAL LENGTH (FEET) 7,000 6,000 5,000 +114% 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/marcellusdn/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015 Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 24
DRILLING COST/LATERAL LENGTH (INCLUDES VERTICAL) ($/FOOT) 1,400 1,200 1,000-71% 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/marcellusdn/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015 Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 25
COMPLETION COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT) 1,400 1,200-42% 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/marcellusdn/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015 Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 26
WELL COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT) 2,500 2,000-57% 1,500 1,000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/marcellusdn/range-resources-company-presentation-july-28-2015 Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 27
NORTHEAST GAS PRODUCTION PER RIG (MCFD) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 28
MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS Canada UK Norway Poland Mexico USA Algeria Libya China Brazil Australia 200 trillion cubic feet Argentina South Africa Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April 2011 29
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Operational, under construction or post-fid Pre-FID LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Other North America Russia East Africa West Africa Australia Other North America Russia West Africa North Africa Indonesia Malaysia Australia Qatar Demand Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 30
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 240 1.6 220 200 GDP 1.4 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 31
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 240 1.6 220 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 33
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 34
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 2012 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 36
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 2012 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 2012 2013 1.4 200 GDP 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 38
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 2012 2013 1.4 GDP 200 2014 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 39
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion 1.8 2010 2011 240 1.6 220 2012 2013 1.4 GDP 200 2014 1.2 180 Historical 1.0 160 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 0.8 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 40
GLOBAL POWER DEMAND GROWTH, 2012-40 DEMAND UNDER NEO WILL BE 15% LOWER IN 2040 THAN IEA NEW POLICIES SCENARIO Negative Low Medium High Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 41
ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007 2015 (2014 US$/TONNE) 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 100 150 100 ARA Newcastle 50 50 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation according to YoY CPI Index from UK Office of National Statistics Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ONS 42
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 2015 YTD 200 150 S&P 500 Oil & Gas NEX 100 Stowe Global Coal 50 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Note: Values as of 08 September 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43
COAL BANKRUPTCIES Investment Pte Image: various company sources 44
COAL The coal business in the United States has kind of died, so we re out of the coal business now. Bill Koch Picture: Forbes 45
DEVELOPING WORLD ENERGY The greatest crisis society confronts is not a future environmental crisis predicted by computer models but a human crisis today that is fully within our power to solve... with coal. Energy Access For All With Green Coal campaign Picture: Peabody Energy 46
AFRICAN PROVERB The gazelle does not have to outrun the cheetah It has to outrun the slowest gazelle Clean energy Coal Oil Sands Oil Gas Image: Denis Donohue / Shutterstock 47
US LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 200 150 100 50 Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Natural gas Coal 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 48
EUROPE LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 200 150 100 50 Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Natural gas Coal 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 49
CHINA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 150 Onshore wind 100 Utility-scale PV 50 Natural gas Coal 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 50
INDIA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 150 Onshore wind 100 Utility-scale PV 50 Natural gas Coal 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 51
TOTAL INVESTMENTS PER TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 (US$ REAL) RENEWABLES TAKE 65% OF THE $12.2 TRILLION POWER INVESTMENT TO 2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10/13/2015 52
RENEWABLES TO DOMINATE POWER SUPPLY GROWTH Renewables are poised to seize the crucial top spot in global power supply growth Affordable renewables are set to dominate the emerging power systems of the world Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia 53
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR), 2014 (%) US 4% France 3% UK 9% Germany 16% Japan 5% Mexico 3% China 5% 0 1-5% 6-10% 11-25% 26-50% 50+% Brazil 3% ME + Africa 0% India 3% Australia 8% Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from BNEF s New Energy Outlook 2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 54
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR), 2040 (%) US 24% France 30% UK 63% Germany 77% Japan 20% Mexico 32% China 37% 0 1-5% 6-10% 11-25% 26-50% 50+% Brazil 34% ME + Africa 26% India 32% Australia 52% Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from BNEF s New Energy Outlook 2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 55
ENERGY SERVICE BATTLEFIELD Nest acquisition Smart thermostats, home Bundled??? automation electricity, entertainment and home automation IHD and smart thermostat program HomeKit Load disaggregation BEMS for DR and energy efficiency Integrated smart homes Solar PV and energy monitoring Home automation Digital Life connected home service Smart thermostats and load disaggregation HIVE home heating Home Load controls Bundled disaggregation automation telecoms and energy Behavioural engagement Home automation Smart thermostats and behavioural DR HEM tools 1m connected home customers Smart thermostats to reduce churn Residential Bundled HEM telecoms, tools energy and Smart DRhome energy. Residential storage hubs energy storage. Heating controls Smart lighting / Smart Connected home home home automation platform / IoT (AT&T) Smart thermostats Registered energy Smart supplier home partnerships/investment Bundled Virtual mobile telecoms, operator electricity Smart and 80k gas thermostats customers Bundled insurance, telecoms and energy Bundled electricity telecoms services Home energy management Energy supply and services Bundled telecoms, electricity supply beginning in 2016 DR and retail services HEMS platform 56
E.ON SPLIT 57
ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE WORLDWIDE, 2013 1.2 billion ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN USE WORLDWIDE, 2014 0.75 million (to scale) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 58
Crystalline Si PV Module price (USD/W) EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINE SI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS 100 10 1 m=26.3% 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW) Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here: https://www.bnef.com/insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 59
Crystalline Si PV Module price (USD/W) EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINE SI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh) 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 100 100 10 1 m=26.3% 10 1 Lithium-ion battery pack price (USD/Wh) EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 60% SINCE 2010 m=15.5% 0 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW) Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here: https://www.bnef.com/insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 60
BEIJING, CHINA Photo: Reuters/NASA 61
DELHI, INDIA Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons 62
LOS ANGELES, USA Photo: UCLA 63
PARIS, FRANCE Photo: D NNI$/Creative Commons 64
LONDON, UK Photo: HHRCA 65
VW DIESELGATE Source: Flickriver 66
GAP BETWEEN EUROPEAN TEST AND REAL WORLD EMISSIONS, VARIOUS VEHICLES, 2001-2014 (%) Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 67
URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra 68
CHANGING UK ELECTRICITY MIX POWER GENERATED BY SOURCE, 1998-2014 (TWH) SHARE OF GENERATION, 2015 YTD (%) 450 400 350 1.9% 300 Other 250 200 150 100 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 23.8% 20.1% 26.2% 27.5% 0.5% 50 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 69
UK HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY BILL 2014 ( ) 700 600 500 586 29 59 Minus 30 rebates + >>> Other, 45 Renewables Obligation, 36 400 29 59 124 VAT @ 5% 300 200 100 0 124 139 235 139 235 2014 Energy and climate VAT @ 5% change policies Supplier costs and margins Energy and climate change policies Network costs Supplier costs and margins Wholesale energy costs Network costs Small-scale Feed-in- Tariffs, 9 Wholesale energy costs Source: UK DECC Annual domestic energy bills 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Michael Liebreich 2014 BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 2015 @MLiebreich 70 Note: Real 2014 Sterling.
UK LCOE BY TECHNOLOTY H2 2015 ($/MWH) PV - c-si (U) Coal Natural gas CCGT 13% 17% 19% 5% 36% 44% Wind - onshore 27% 0 50 100 150 200 250 Note: Natural gas CCGT and coal includes a carbon cost of $26/tonne Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 71
UK ENERGY POLICY Image: Wikimedia Commons 72
IN SUMMARY The old is dying and the new struggles to be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. Antonio Gramsci Co-Founder & Leader, Italian Communist Party Picture: Wikimedia Commons 73
Thanks! MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Michael Liebreich Twitter: @mliebreich Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system sales.bnef@bloomberg.net