INTRO TO RENEWABLE PROJECT INVESTING
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1 INTRO TO RENEWABLE PROJECT INVESTING NYU LAW: INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TRAINING: FINANCIAL ISSUES AND FUTURE OF COAL MICHEL DI CAPUA JANUARY 2012 US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
2 CONTENTS Global sector overview Intro to renewable projects and policies Intro to US renewables US renewable financing US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
3 GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY, ($BN) 30% $243bn 19% $180bn 4% $186bn 34% $151bn 48% $113bn 48% $76bn $52bn Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for reinvested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
4 INDUSTRY SIZE COMPARISON ($BN) Clean energy investment Clean energy generation capacity investment Fossil-based generation capacity investment Total energy sector investment $243bn $187bn $219bn $1,200bn Global luxury goods market (spending) Global advertising (spending) $243bn $640bn Oil (spending) $3,200bn Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Facebook, Bain & Co, PWC, George Washington Business School US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
5 RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CONTEXT RE provides 16% of global final energy production RE provides 19.4% of global electricity generation Germany generated 21% of electricity from RE, 1 st 6 mo 2011 Wind provides 22% of electricity in Denmark, Portugal 21%, Spain 15.4%, Ireland 10.1% Texas produces 8% of its electricity from wind power in % of power capacity additions in China are now renewable Nearly 50% of transport fuel in Brazil is from ethanol 96 countries have policy targets for renewable energy Source: REN21, various US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
6 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY STIMULUS SPENDING BY YEAR, ($BN) Global total = $193.9bn % 68 35% Spent = $94.8bn, 49% Unspent = $31.1bn, 16% 0.0 0% % % 9.7 5% e 2012e 2013e Note: according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance expectations Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
7 LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY Q ($/MWH) Marine - Tidal Marine - Wave STEG - Parabolic Trough STEG - Parabolic Trough + Storage Wind - Offshore STEG - Tower & Heliostat STEG - LFR PV - c-si STEG - Tower & Heliostat w/storage PV - Thin Film Geothermal - Binary Plant Biomass - Gasification PV - c-si Tracking Biomass - Anaerobic Digestion Biomass - Incineration Geothermal - Flash Plant Municipal Solid Waste Wind - Onshore Coal Fired Landfill Gas Natural Gas CCGT -1% -3% +6% +1% -9% -1% -9% -3% -4% -2% -2% +1% -1% +6% +5% +1% +1% +1% +5% % % Carbon forecasts from the BNEF European Carbon Model with a 2020 horizon $74/tCO2. Coal and nat gas prices from the US Department of Energy EIA Annual Energy Outlook % change represents change in mid from Q LCOE BNEF 2011 EU-ETS EUA Forecast Q Central Scenario Q Central Scenario Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
8 THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 MW (log) historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Thin-film experience curve First Solar thin-film module cost Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98 Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FSLR filings US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
9 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY 0.70 $/kwh 0.60 More sun Residential power market GW 0.40 Denmark Hawaii 50GW Netherlands Germany UK Slovakia Japan US excl. CA Italy France South Korea China Turkey Portugal Spain Greece CA South Africa 2010 LCOE 2015 LCOE ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Average residential power price kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. CA is California. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
10 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX SEPTEMBER NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Note: Values as of 30 Sep 2011; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
11 TOP 10 GLOBAL PV CELL MANUFACTURERS 2006, 2010 (RANK ORDER BY CAPACITY) % per year 2010 Company Country Capacity (MW) 1. Sharp Japan Q-Cells Germany Suntech China Motech Taiwan Solarworld Germany China Sunergy China Kyocera Japan Isofoton Spain Schott Germany Sanyo Electric Japan 115 Company Country Capacity (MW) 1. JA Solar China 1, Suntech China 1, First Solar (TF) US 1, Yingli China 1, Trina Solar China 1, Q-Cells Germany 1, Canadian Solar China Motech Taiwan Gintech Taiwan JinkoSolar China 600 Note: Capacity counted as either crystalline silicon cell or thin film module. TF is thin film Europe US China Other Asia Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company announcements US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
12 CONTENTS Global sector overview Intro to renewable projects and policies Intro to US renewables US renewable financing US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
13 RENEWABLE PROJECT ELEMENTS Outputs Electricity Environmental attributes (RECs, carbon offsets) Revenues / benefits Sale of electricity (eg, via PPA) Renewable project Sale of environmental attributes Tax benefits CAPEX Opex Debt repayment Costs Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
14 CLEAN ENERGY POLICIES FOUR TYPES Feed-in tariffs Fixed offtake price (funded by ratepayer or taxpayer) Long-term visibility European wind and solar markets Trade and quota Utility obligations trading programme Market mechanism, and drives towards a fixed target REC markets eg, UK, Italy, India, Australia, Chile, US Tax incentives Tax credits, accelerated depreciation, VAT exemptions Enhanced project economics US PTCs and ITCs Tenders Reverse auctions Price discovery Latin America, China US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
15 CONTENTS Global sector overview Intro to renewable projects and policies Intro to US renewables US renewable financing US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
16 US CLEAN ENERGY ASSET FINANCE ($BN) Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q Wind Solar Biofuels Biomass & Waste Geothermal Marine & Small Hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
17 AVERAGE WIND POWER PRICE RELATIVE TO REGIONAL WHOLESALE PRICES ($/MWH) PJM West ERCOT West MISO (Cinergy Hub) Southwest Power Pool California PPA price (signing date) Note: Price indices are calculated by averaging the hourly price at ISO hubs throughout a 24-hour day. Quarterly rolling averages are used to eliminate outliers. Small sample size accounts for some variation in PPA prices in Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
18 US WIND PROJECT INSTALLATIONS, (MW) -92% 3886% -76% 331% -74% 332% PTC expires June 1999, extended Dec 1999 PTC expires Dec 2001, extended Feb 2002 PTC expires Dec 2003, extended Oct ,714 1,766 2, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, AWEA US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
19 EFFECTS OF US POLICY MECHANISMS ON THE LOWER BOUND OF STEG LCOES ($/MWH) STEG - Parabolic STEG - Parabolic STEG - Tower & Heliostat STEG - LFR STEG - Tower & Heliostat PV - Csi PV - Thin Film Low end of LCOE range with US policy mechanism support Normal range of LCOEs Lowest cost analysis includes reduction of capex of 30%, utilisation of accelerated 5 year modified accelerated cost recovery system (MACRS) depreciation and financing of term debt at +25 basis points to the 15 year USD swap rate. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
20 SNAPSHOT US RENEWABLE POLICY story $65bn in federal stimulus for renewables and energy efficiency Other policies to promote renewable build (FERC orders to enable new transmission, accelerated review and approval of projects on federal land) Friction: domestically (eg, Solyndra); internationally (trade wars) 2012 and short-term outlook Efforts to extend tax credits (possible) and reinstate cash grants (unlikely) Broad-based support for early-stage clean-energy research New emphasis on growing US exports, including renewable technology Wild cards The elections of November 2012 Regulations governing natural gas fracking Myths and misperceptions Federal support for renewables creates huge costs to US Treasury Renewable energy requires federal subsidies indefinitely US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
21 CONTENTS Global sector overview Intro to renewable projects and policies Intro to US renewables US renewable financing US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
22 PROJECT FINANCE STRUCTURES: CORPORATE MODEL sources of funding Project Sponsor 100% equity 100% cash flows and tax credits Project company (100% equity) 100% cash flows Power and REC sales ITC/PTC 100% tax credits MACRS sources of revenue sources of tax credits Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
23 PROJECT FINANCE STRUCTURES: SIMPLIFIED TAX EQUITY Lender Loan Interest payments sources of funding Developer Tax equity investor Benefits mostly in the form of project cash flows Project company (100% equity) Benefits mostly in the form of tax incentives Power and REC sales ITC/PTC Investment tax credits (based on project cost) Production tax credits (based on project performance) sources of revenue MACRS sources of tax credits Accelerated depreciation (defers income tax obligations) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
24 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED FINANCING FROM TAX EQUITY AND TREASURY GRANT ($BN) $3.9 $1.9 $2.0 Projected incremental 2011 Treasury grant Treasury grant $0.5 $3.2 $6.1 $3.4 $1.9 $1.3 $3.3 $2.0 $1.7 $1.9 $1.9 $ YTD E 2012E Projected incremental tax equity Tax equity Notes: The values in this figure may not match values in previous figure since this analysis is across all sectors (whereas previous figure is for wind only) and because the two analyses likely use different assumptions about timing (ie, assumed gap between tax equity financing date and project commissioning date) and about percentage of projects historically financed on balance sheet. Source: US PREF Prospective tax equity market observations US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
25 POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF TAX EQUITY: CASH PAID FOR TAXES BY MAJOR US COMPANIES (TRAILING 12 MONTHS) ($BN) 500 largest US public companies by sector 15 major investor-owned utilities in US $48 Exelon Corp Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Constellation Energy Group Inc Dominion Resources Inc/VA $35 $30 PacifiCorp PPL Corp Southern Co Edison International $9 $14 Unisource Energy Corp Wisconsin Energy Corp DTE Energy Co DPL Inc 0 Energy Financial Industrial Tech / Telecom Other Sempra Energy Duke Energy Corp MDU Resources Group Inc Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg terminal data US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
26 COST OF DEBT AND TAX EQUITY INVESTMENT YIELDS FOR A TYPICAL 100MW WIND PROJECT, % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 3m LIBOR 15y swap Debt spread Tax equity Tax equity ("pre-tax") Note: Pre-tax' tax equity is an academic construct designed to allow for comparison with tax-free debt instruments equal to the nominal yield divided by one minus tax rate. Both project debt spreads and tax equity yields are estimated from discussion with market participants. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
27 AVAILABLE FINANCING OPTIONS BY DEVELOPMENT STAGE FOR A 50MW FLASH PROJECT Early-stage/high-risk Middle-stage/medium-risk Late-stage/low-risk Surface exploration Exploration drilling Initial production drilling Confirm, validate resource Complete drilling programme Plant engineering & construction Commission plant Sign PPA Seed capital/ angel investment $ m 4-5x ROE Private equity $5-30m at 20-40% ROE, partial developer match If unavailable, developer financing at 15-20% hurdle rate Mezzanine/ bridge debt/equity $15-20m debt at 13-15% % project equity stake with 25-30% ROE Construction/ convertible debt $250m debt at LIBOR Developer equity or partnership to satisfy 65-70% leverage ratio Term debt/longterm instrument n $250m debt at LIBOR Note: Base-case project is in a developed geothermal market such as the US with little country or political risk. The end of drilling and start of plant construction are often nonsequential development companies often begin surface work while drilling activities are ongoing. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
28 SNAPSHOT US RENEWABLE FINANCING story Tax credits instrumental to surge of wind throughout the decade Cash grant rescued sector; DOE loans drove record investments Limited appetite in public markets (eg, failed First Wind IPO) 2012 and short-term outlook Return to tax equity: economics work but are there enough players? Steady terms of debt, though concerns about availability from European banks Increasingly sophisticated structures (eg, syndicated tax equity) Wild cards Will PTC be extended? Can small solar projects survive without cash grant? Are there hopes for other incentives such as MLPs? Myths and misperceptions Assuming high capacity factor, PTC is always preferable to ITC There are no financing options for purely merchant projects US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
29 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg New Energy Finance accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Bloomberg New Energy Finance does not consider itself to undertake Regulated Activities as defined in Section 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not registered with the Financial Services Authority of the UK. US CLEAN ENERGY INTRO TO RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS NYU LAW, JAN
30 INTRO TO INVESTING IN RENEWABLE PROJECTS MICHEL DI CAPUA, MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Water Nuclear SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets
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