Carlos Fernández Alvarez
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1 Carlos Fernández Alvarez Senior Coal Analyst Madrid, 30 January 2014
2 About the IEA Established in November 1974 in order to: Promote energy security Provide analysis to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy Current objectives have evolved; Secure member countries reliable energy supply Promote sustainable policies Improve transparency of energy markets Support global co-operation on energy technology Find solutions through engagement and dialogue The Medium-Term Coal Market Report is published under the authority of the IEA Executive Director
3 Coal only knows a direction: upwards PRIMARY ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS
4 BAU: China leading the (coal) world COAL DEMAND IN CHINA AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD
5 2012: breaking trends COAL DEMAND AND GROWTH IN CHINA AND US
6 What happened in China in 2012? COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN CHINA (y-o-y)
7 OECD countries are not reducing coal use COAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS
8 Growth led by non-oecd COAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS
9 But who is more coal dependant? COAL USE IN POWER GENERATION Note: 2011 Data
10 Displace coal in Asia will not be that easy COAL AND GAS PRICES. IMPLIED CO2 PRICE TO TRIGGER FUEL SWITCHING
11 Seaborne steam coal trade, always up DEVELOPMENT OF SEABORNE HARD COAL MARKET, Mt * Steam coal Metallurgical coal Annual growth (right axis) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
12 and moving East Total global trade volume 887 Mt (2012) (+113 Mt 2011/12) Seaborne exports from 51 Mt (-4) Russia 97 Mt (+7) 113 Mt (+15) 22 Mt (+3) 46 Mt (+11) Seaborne imports to the Atlantic Basin 206 Mt (+2) Seaborne exports from the Atlantic Basin 135 Mt (+18) Seaborne exports from the Pacific Basin 582 Mt (+82) Seaborne imports to the Pacific Basin 681 Mt (+111) 24 Mt (-5) 18 Mt (-3) Seaborne exports from South Africa 74 Mt (+6) 563 Mt (+85) 49 Mt (+12) Atlantic Basin Suppliers to both markets Pacific Basin
13 Paper trade still is in the Atlantic COAL DERIVATIVES TRADE Mt API2 API4 Other
14 Russian coal: so far away AVERAGE DISTANCE FROM SOME EXPORTING REGIONS TO THE PORTS DISTANCE FOR COAL IN RUSSIA Mt Mainly domestically consumed coal Exported coal 0 < > km
15 Prices going down SPOT PRICE OF THERMAL, COKING AND PCI COAL (AUSTRALIA-FOB) USD/t Newcastle steam coal (FOB) Australian low vol PCI (FOB) Australian prime hard coking (FOB)
16 South African coal: going to Asia DESTINATION OF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTS Mt Japan and Korea China India Other Asia Europe ROW
17 Colombian coal taking its place COLOMBIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS TO EUROPE AND PRICES USD/t Mt South African exports to Europe (right axis) Colombian exports to Europe (right axis) Richards Bay (FOB + freight) Puerto Bolivar (FOB + freight) Northwest Europe (ARA CIF)
18 Uneconomic decisions? AUSTRALIAN STEAM COAL SUPPLY COST CURVE AND PRICES USD/t Exports 2012 covering FOB costs Exports Mt Newcastle FOB (2012 average) FOB costs Short-term marginal costs
19 Does coal price follow oil and gas prices? DAY ROLLING CORRELATIONS FOR COAL WITH GAS AND OIL Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 API2-TTF 252 day rolling correlation API2-Brent 252 day rolling correlation
20 Met coal producers also struggling MET COAL COST CURVE AND PRICES USD/t FOB price Jan 12 FOB price Nov Australia Canada Russia United States Other Mt
21 Debunking myths: US shale gas and coal price GW US coal fired retirements US retirements
22 Was unburned US coal exported? COAL BALANCE IN US
23 This is the answer The James River Coal company announced Tuesday it is closing several mines in eastern Kentucky and laying off 525 employees. Argus Energy has notified West Virginia labor authorities that it will shut two underground coal mines, a preparation plant and the Wayne County River Terminal on December 27. Major Layoffs at Oxbow Coal Mine America West Resources entered bankruptcy in February 2013 The vice president of Springfield Coal Company tells us nearly 190 Crown III miners have been laid off in Farmersville. Patriot Coal entered bankruptcy protection in July 2012 More than 250 miners and employees have been let go. The lay-offs took place at the Guyan Surface Mine and the Fanco Prep Plant in Yolyn in Logan County.
24 China, always uncertain MAIN FACTORS IMPACTING ON COAL DEMAND IN CHINA
25 Economics of coal-based SNG does make sense A VERY ROUGH ESTIMATE OF COAL-BASED SNG
26 Coal trade: growing faster, moving East 113 (+16) 65 (+14) 113 (+21) 489 (+106) 89 (+15) 223 (+63) Global thermal seaborne trade 1131 Mt (2018) (+244 Mt )
27 Wrapping up Coal demand will grow at 2.3% per year to reach almost 9 billion tonnes in 2018 Despite some policy changes, China will lead the way, absorbing roughly 60 % of that growth OECD consumption remains flat Indonesia and Australia will lead exports growth Coal conversion in China emerges as a driver of demand growth
28 Thanks for your attention Muchas gracias To buy the book, click: Comments to the report are welcome and should be addressed to:
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