Stan Benjamin Eric James Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Susan Sahm Bill Moninger NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
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1 Impact of upper-air and near-surface observations on short-range forecasts from NOAA hourly assimilation cycles (RUC and Rapid Refresh) aircraft profiler VAD winds rawinsonde GPS precipitable water METARs radar reflectivity AMVs Stan Benjamin Eric James Haidao Lin Steve Weygandt Susan Sahm Bill Moninger NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO Wed 23 May 2012 WMO Workshop on Impact of Obs on NWP
2 RUC / RAP hourly cycling 18-h fcst 18-h fcst Initial Condition Fields 18-h fcst Hourly RUC or RAP 1-hr fcst Background Fields Radar DDFI Analysis Fields 1-hr fcst DDFI 1-hr fcst 3DVAR 3DVAR Obs Obs Time (UTC)
3 Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models Rapid Refresh (RAP) replaced RUC at NCEP 1 May 12 Uses WRF, GSI with RUC features 13km Rapid Refresh new operational model, new 18h fcst every hour 13km RUC prior operational model, new 18h fcst every hour
4 NOAA hourly updated models from RUC to Rapid Refresh RAP Community-based advanced model and analysis in RAP - WRF-ARW: advanced numerics, non-hydrostatic -GSI: advanced satellite data assimilation Model Domain Grid Points Grid Spacing Vertical Levels RUC CONUS 451 x km 50 RAP North America Vertical Coordinate Sigma/ Isentropic Pressure Top Boundary Conditions ~50 mb NAM 758 x km 50 Sigma 10 mb GFS Model Assimilation RUC RAP RUC 3DVAR GSI w/ radiances DFI Yes w/radar Yes w/radar Cloud Analysis Yes Yes Thompson (2003) 5 species Thompson (2008) 6 species Cloud microphysics Radiation Conv PBL LSM LW/SW param RRTM/ Grell Burk RUC Dudhia Devenyi Thompson 2003 RRTM/ Goddard Grell 3d MYJ RUC 2010
5 Topic of this presentation: 3 sets of regional observation denial experiments with NOAA hourly assimilation cycles Rapid Update Cycle experiments Cold-season Nov-Dec days Warm-season August days Experiments used 2009 version of RUC Rapid Refresh Warm-season May-June days Experiments used 2012 version of experimental RAP (ESRL version)
6 RUC/Rapid Refresh Hourly assimilation cycle Cycle hydrometeors Cycle soil temp., moisture, snow 1-hr fcst Background Fields 3DVAR Obs 1-hr fcst Analysis Fields 3DVAR Obs 1-hr fcst Time (UTC) Hourly observations (stations for raobs/profiles) RUC CONUS Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) Profiler NOAA Network (V) Profiler 915 MHz (V, Tv) flagged 25 Radar VAD (V) Radar reflectivity CONUS 2km 2km RAP 2011 N.Amer Lightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN Aircraft (V,T) 1.4 7K 2 15K Aircraft WVSS (RH) Aircraft TAMDAR (V,T,RH) Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) Buoys/ships (V, ps) Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) 4500 flagged GOES AMVs (V) AMSU/HIRS radiances Used GOES cloud top pressure/temp 13km 13km WindSat scatterometer 2 10K
7 Rapid Refresh obs counts (not counting radar reflectivity, GOES cloud, polar sat radiances) METARs, buoys, ships, SYNOPs Aircraft, profilers, raobs, VADs, AMVs Sfc, aircraft, raobs Aircraft, raobs, sfc NOAA Stan Benjamin 5/3/2012
8 RUC/RAP observation denial experiments
9 Observations assimilated in hourly update models (RUC, Rapid Refresh) NEXRAD VAD winds Radar reflectivity
10 RUC/RAP specific analysis features Cloud and hydrometeor analysis Special treatments for surface observations Digital filter based reflectivity assimilation
11 RUC - Sep-Dec 2002 Man only RAOB verification every 10 hpa (Moninger et al. WAF 2010) RAP - March hPa 1h h Verification against rawinsonde data over CONUS domain RMS vector difference (forecast vs. obs) RUC and RAP are able to use recent obs to improve forecast skill down to 1-h projection for winds
12 Location for 3 verification domains Region 0 - National Region 1 - Eastern Region 2 - Midwest / Great Lakes 12
13 Aircraft Diurnal dependencies for observations minimum in commercial traffic at night (06z- 11z) over N.America Profiler, VAD winds vulnerable to bird migration contamination at night in spring/fall Surface Winds/temperature/dewpoint obs representative over deeper boundary layer in daytime
14 Breakdown for RUC/RAP OSE results 7-9 experiments (control, 6-8 obs denial experiments) 2 Regions US National (data rich) Midwest (very data rich) 4 layers hpa (full depth) hpa (near surface) or (lower trop) hpa (mid-troposphere) hpa (upper troposphere, lower stratosphere) 2 seasons winter summer Forecast duration 3h, 6h, 9h, 12h Valid time of day 00z, 12z 5 dimensions! Q: HOW TO SUMMARIZE? A: Composite plots
15 1st Breakdown for RUC OSE results 7-9 experiments (control, 6-8 obs denial experiments) 2 Regions US National (data rich) Midwest (very data rich) 4 layers hpa (full depth) hpa ( near surface) hpa (mid- troposphere) hpa (upper troposphere, lower stratosphere) 2 seasons winter summer Forecast duration 3h, 6h, 12h Valid time of day 00z, 12z 6 dimensions! Q: HOW TO SUMMARIZE? A: Composite plots
16 RUC airc raob GPS WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control RH - national hpa #1 obs type = Raobs #2 = GPS-PW SUMMER
17 RAP airc VAD raob sfc Valid 00z - daytime airc VAD sfc GPS Valid 12z - nighttime RH - national hpa #1 obs type = Raobs Close #2 = aircraft #3 GPS at night - VAD in day - sfc day/night More crosscovariance effect w/ GSI/RAP for windmoisture than w/ RUC
18 RUC airc raob WINTER airc No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control raob sfc Temp - national hpa Tie for #1 = Aircraft, RAOBs Aircraft more at 3h, RAOB-12h Sfc ~ aircraft, RAOB in summer(!) SUMMER
19 RAP airc raob Valid 00z - daytime airc Valid 12z - nighttime Temp - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 = RAOBs Aircraft more at 3h, RAOB-12h
20 RUC airc airc raob No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control raob WINTER Wind - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 = RAOBs SUMMER
21 RUC airc prof raob WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control raob Wind - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 = RAOBs Smaller players: prof, AMV, sfc SUMMER
22 RAP airc raob Valid 00z - daytime airc Valid 12z - nighttime Wind - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 = RAOBs #3 = surface Smaller players: sfc, VADs
23 2nd Breakdown for RUC OSE results 7 experiments (control, 6 obs denial experiments) 2 Regions US National (data rich) Midwest (very data rich) 4 layers hpa (full depth) hpa ( near surface) hpa (mid- troposphere) hpa (upper troposphere, lower stratosphere) 2 seasons winter summer Forecast duration Wind only 3h, 6h, 12h
24 RUC airc VAD WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW - control Wind - national hpa Aircraft, VAD, sfc - 3h - winter Sfc - 3h - summer SUMMER
25 RAP airc Valid 00z - daytime Valid 12z - nighttime Wind - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 =sfc (esp.night) #3 = raob, prof
26 airc prof raob RUC WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW - control Wind - national hpa #1 overall - Aircraft, by far #2 - RAOBS, distant #3- profiler SUMMER
27 3rd Breakdown for RUC OSE results 7 experiments (control, 6 obs denial experiments) 2 Regions US National (data rich) Midwest (very data rich) 4 layers hpa (full depth) hpa (near surface) hpa (mid-troposphere) hpa (upper troposphere, lower stratosphere) 2 seasons winter summer Forecast duration 3h, 6h, 12h First, look at RH
28 RUC airc raob GPS WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control GPS RH - MIDWEST hpa #1 obs type = Raobs, aircraft Closely followed GPS-PW TAMDAR strong RH effect SUMMER
29 RAP airc GPS Valid 00z - daytime RH - MIDWEST hpa Daytime #1 = sfc, aircraft #3 = GPS airc prof VAD GPS Valid 12z - nighttime Nighttime Aircraft, prof, GPS Negative impact - VAD at night (bird migration?) - Radar refl
30 RAP airc airc prof prof GPS Valid 00z - daytime Valid 12z - nighttime Wind - GtLakes hpa Day- Aircraft, prof, VAD, sfc Night Sfc, VAD, aircraft, prof, GPS
31 Other RAP-related OSE studies PBL profilers for improved m wind forecasts Dept. of Energy funded Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) Radar reflectivity assimilation Critical for 3km hourly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) experimental forecasts in US for aviation, severe weather, renewable energy AIRS radiance / retrieval assimilation NESDIS-funded, GOES-R, goal: improve hourly assimilation impact for short-range RAP/HRRR forecasts
32 RAP/HRRR Reflectivity Verification Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dbz August 2011 CSI 13 km CSI 40 km 3km HRRR forecasts improve upon RAP 13km forecasts, especially at coarser scales much better upscaled skill Radar DDFI adds skill at both 13km and 3km 32
33 Wind Forecast Improvement Project vertically averaged wind profiler RMSE w/wfip data Improvement in m wind out to ~8h due to 10 extra 915 MHz wind profiler in n. central US both in RUC and RAP (RR) w/wfip data
34 AIRS Radiance Coverage in RAP 1.5-h time window (+/- 1.5 h), in 3-h cycle RAP retro run Brightness temp (BT) from AIRS 00Z channel May Z 06Z AIRS Impact Exps with RAP CNTL Relative Humidity 6h forecast err AIRS Ex. 1 (default 120 channels AIRS Ex. 2 (selected 68 channels) Haidao Lin, Steve Weygandt
35 CONUS, 6h/9h only, 12z+00z, RAP RH Similar contribution from sfc, aircraft, raob, GPS -20% Error reduction Wind #1 aircraft, distant #2 raob, sfc -20% Err red Temp Aircraft, raob -20% 6h F 0h A for normalizing V 1.5 m/s, T 0.6K RH 5% 35
36 Gt Lakes data-rich area,12z/0z, 6h/9h only, RAP RH Profiler added (sfc, air, GPS, prof) -20% Wind Profiler added (sfc, air, prof, GPS, raob, VAD) -20% Temp Aircraft, sfc -20% error red 6h F 0h A for normalizing V 1.5 m/s, T 0.6K RH 5% 36
37 Conclusions RUC/RAP OSE exps Extensive obs impact study performed for 1 winter and 2 summer retro periods using RUC/RAP for 3-12h forecast impact Heterogeneous observing system in US effective for short-range (3-12h) forecasts for tropospheric RH, temp, winds. Stronger wind-moisture cross-covariance with GSI in RAP than with RUC 3dVAR Aircraft data most important observation overall for short-range fcsts from troposphere-to-sfc (10-20% reduction for 6h fcst err for T/V/RH), but far from sole key observing system. For RUC OSEs - RAOBs of #2 importance overall For RAP OSEs (w/ GSI) broader contribution evident from different obs systems - GPS-PW, surface, RAOB Data-rich Great Lakes area profiler provides similar wind/rh impact 6 of 8 systems provide at least 5% err reduction for winds 4 of 8 do same for RH (aircraft, sfc, GPS-PW, profiler) 37
38 Conclusions RUC/RAP OSE exps #2 Results needing follow-up No additional value from mesonet data in RUC exps. ESRL, NCEP efforts underway to determine station/time/wind direction-dependent biases to improve forward model Test mesonet impact with RAP/GSI Little value added from AMVs in RUC or RAP experiments high obs error in GSI/RAP? Test U.Wisconsin AMVs VAD winds also show contribution but nighttime negative impact need better bird migration QC? Other RAP denial experiments needed WindSat, buoy, GOES-cloud Add cold-season retrospective impact tests for RAP/GSI EnKF/hybrid/GSI efforts hourly RAP, 6h for NOAA FIM global model RUC-OSEs - MWR article - June 2010 Benjamin et al. complements Moninger et al W&F paper on TAMDAR impact study 38
39 RAP No profiler Minus Control Control - All data No profiler experiment
40 airc airc Valid 00z - daytime Valid 12z - nighttime RAP Temp - national hpa #1 = Aircraft #2 = sfc #3 = raobs (night), VAD (day)
41 RUC airc WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW control No-mesonet control No-AMV - control Temp - MIDWEST hpa #1 = aircraft (incl. TAMDAR) #2 = surface (winter and summer) SUMMER
42 RUC airc WINTER No-aircraft - control No-profiler - control No-VAD - control No-RAOB - control No-surface - control No-GPS-PW - control Wind - national hpa #1 overall - Aircraft RAOBs - #1 12h SUMMER
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