Introduction to the forecasting world Jukka Julkunen FMI, Aviation and military WS
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1 Boundary layer challenges for aviation forecaster Introduction to the forecasting world Jukka Julkunen FMI, Aviation and military WS
2 Forecast for general public We can live with it - BUT Not enough for aviation purposes Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
3 Aviation and weather Trees are about 200m away. The tower (air traffic control) is about 1000m away (opposite side of the runway) Could be seen BUT visibility < 1km = FOG Photo: Heikki Kauppinen Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
4 Aviation forecaster s duty is to serve aviation community Offer Internationally standardized services ( by ICAO) Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Significant Weather Charts to upper atmosphere (SWC) Warnings of hazarous weather phenomena (SIGMET) thunderstorms, turbulens, icing Observations available from aerodrome METAR - METeorological Aerodrome Report from aircrafts (AIREP) Others: Satellites, weather radars, different kinds of Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus ground based weather obs stations, soundings
5 Use of aviation forecasts and observations Aviation forecasts are used for planning of flight operations - estimations of: fuel consumption passenger/gargo relation, safety possibility of getting to the distant airport, keep time tables Observations are mainly for decision making for safe landing and takeoff Forecasts are made by certified forecaster (ICAO requirement) fcst are monitored continuously and amended as necessary Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
6 Weather forecast for aviation community 1. Significant weather chart Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
7 Weather forecast for aviation community Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
8 2. TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) is a point forecast Area of 8km circle around the airport 8 km runway Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
9 TAF Terminal Aerodrome Forecast Made for international and domestic aerodromes Mandatory for international aviation (civil/military) Validity 3 to 30 hours, time resolution ~1 hour Have to: Continuous monitoring by forecaster against local and other observations available WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED, GUSTs HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY WEATHER PHENOMENA (intst + phenomena) CLOUD COVERAGE (0-8/8) and CEILING Forecast significant changes of parameters Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
10 Aviation observations and fcst for airport Coded messages as ahort as possible and easily interpreted METAR -observation Helsinki-Vantaa airport wind visib weather cloud layers T/Td pressure METAR EFHK Z 05011KT SHSN SCT010 BKN025 00/M01 Q1015= TAF - aerodrome forecast Helsinki-Vantaa airport TAF EFHK Z 2803/ KT SHSN SCT009 BKN020 TEMPO 2803/ SHSN BKN009 PROB / SHSN TEMPO 2809/ SHSN BKN013= Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
11 Forecasted parameters and spatial resolution Trees are about 200m away. The tower (air traffic control) is about 1000m away, but where? Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
12 Examples of required accuracies by ICAO Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
13 Visibility (10m horizontal) ICAO requirement of accuracy TAF visibility categories : 000m 150m 350m 600m 800m 1500m 3000m 5000m 8000m Resolution: Categories are very demanding!! But visibility in one of the most important meteorological parameters for aviation Postprosessing (Example HARMONIE) Climatology example probability of vis < 1000m (page 21) Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
14 Clouds; ceiling height of cloud layer measured in the area of airport Significant ceiling categories (accuracy of the fcst): 000ft 100ft 200ft 500ft 1000ft 1500ft 30m 60m 170m 300m 500m NOTE: resolution!! Ceiling is very important parameter (flight planning and decision making during approach and departure) Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
15 Other important parameters Precipitation type Hail, Graupel, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, snow, rain, drizzle post-processed in HARMONIE Icing : light, moderate, heavy Notice: Icing is dependent on a type of an aircraft (velocity, engines, icing protection) also postprosessed parameter (use through FMI Metworkstation) Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
16 Use of NWP Choose the best (locally) NWP-forecast By subjective analysis and coordination with colleaques f.ex. Meteograms (Harmonie) Stable PBL below 500m in the most important layer for aviation Forecasting: Temperature - Zero-line LWC, Humidity Hydrometeors Aerosols Horiz and vertical resolution Time resolution Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
17 EU demands and Single European Sky (SES) SESAR development project under SES are working on common Aviation technologies in Europe One of the main interest is to lower aviation costs and to get European traffic more effective (flexible, f.ex. keeping time tables) One way in order to reduce the costs is automation The service volyme will be so large that manual weather services are practically impossible Solution is to develop atmospheric NWP models Particularly model quality in atmospheric PBL very important on the way to automated aviation service Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
18 Time crossection for aerodrome (made by hand using obs+model (HIRLAM RCR) NOTE: Hyper-logarithmic vertical (altitude) scale Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
19 We really need your contribution Thank You! Photo Meteorologist Janne Ylläsjärvi at Rovaniemi airport
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