SPAIN WEEKLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN

Transcription

1 SPAIN WEEKLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN JULY 8 th 1

2 NIPO: Elaboración y coordinación: Secretaría de Estado de Economía y Apoyo a la Empresa Dirección General de Análisis Macroeconómico y Economía Internacional Subdirección General de Análisis Coyuntural y Previsiones Económicas

3 INDEX (1) Table 1. Quarterly National Accounts. Main Aggregates. Year-on-year change Table 1a. Quarterly National Accounts. Main Aggregates. Quarter-on-quarter change Table 1b. Quarterly National Accounts: Wages, Productivity and Labour Costs Table. General and Industry Activity Indicators Table 3. Construction and Services Activity Indicators Table. Domestic Demand (Private Consumption and Equipment Investment) Table a. Housing Indicators Table 5. External Demand, Balance of Payments and Net External Reserves Table. Labour Market Table 7. Prices and Wages Table 8. Public Sector: State Operations Table 9. Monetary and Financial Sector Table 1. International Indicators (I) Table 11. International Indicators (II) Table 1. Summary of Indicators Chart 1. Summary of Indicators (1) Supplementary data and list of abbreviations can be obtained from Síntesis de Indicadores Económicos.

4 Table 1. QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS. BASE 1 Chain-linked volume; adjusted data (1) July 8, 1 Year-on-year growth rate in % DEMAND 15 1() 15 I 15 II 15 III 15 IV 1 I Final consumption expenditure Households Non-profit Institutions (3) General government Gross fixed capital formation Tangible fixed assets Equipment and cultivated assets Construction Intelectual Property Products Change in inventories () Domestic demand () Good and service exports Good and service imports Net exports () GROSS VALUE ADDED Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry Construction Services GDP m.p (1) Seasonally and calendar adjusted data. () Available period data (3) Non-profit making institutions serving households. () Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points). (ESA 1). Source: INE. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT & COMPONENTS GDP () Net exports () 19 DOMESTIC DEMAND: COMPONENTS () Domestic demand () Private Consumption Expenditure GFCF Construction GFCF Equipm.and cultivat.assets NET EXPORTS: COMPONENTS () 1 GVA NON AGRICULTURAL SECTORS () -15 Goods and services exports Goods and services imports GVA Industry GVA Construction GVA Services

5 Table 1a. QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS. BASE 1 Chain-linked volume; adjusted data (1) July 8, 1 DEMAND Quarter-on-quarter growth rate in % 1 IV 15 I 15 II 15 III 15 IV 1 I Final consumption expenditure Households Non-profit Institutions () General government Gross fixed capital formation Tangible fixed assets Equipment and cultivated assets Construction Intelectual Property Products Good and service exports Good and service imports GROSS VALUE ADDED Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry Construction Services GDP M.P (1) Seasonally and calendar adjusted data. () Non-profit making institutions serving households. (3) Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points). (ESA 1). Source: INE. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND COMPONENTS 7 DOMESTIC DEMAND: COMPONENTS (q-o-q % change) GDP (q-o-q % change) Net Exports (3) Domestic Demand (3) Private Consumption Expenditure GFCF Construction GFCF Equipment and cultivated assets NET EXPORTS: COMPONENTS (q-o-q % change) GVA NON AGRICULTURAL SECTORS (q-o-q % change) -5 Goods and services exports Goods and services imports GVA Industry GVA Construction GVA Services

6 Table1b. QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: WAGES, PRODUCTIVITY AND LABOUR COST (1) Year on year percentage change July 8, 1 Quarter on quarter percentage change 15 1() II.Q.15 III.Q.15 IV.Q.15 I.Q.1 II.Q.15 III.Q.15 IV.Q.15 I.Q.1 TOTAL ECONOMY Unit labour cost Compensation per employee Labour productivity GDP deflator MANUFACTURING Unit labour cost Compensation per employee Labour productivity GVA deflator (1) Adjusted seasonal and calendar effects. () Available period data. Source: INE (CN1). UNIT LABOUR COST AND THEIR COMPONENTS TOTAL ECONOMY MANUFACTURING Compensation per employee Labour productivity Unit labour cost Compensation per employee Labour productivity Unit labour cost TOTAL ECONOMY q-o-q % change Compensation per employee MANUFACTURING q-o-q % change Labour productivity Unit labour cost Compensation per employee Labour productivity Unit labour cost

7 Table. GENERAL AND INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDICATORS (Year-on-year percentage change except as indicated) July 8, 1 Previous Latest 15 1(1) 15 III 15 IV 1 I 1 II(1) data data Date GENERAL Composite Activity Indicator () Q.. 1 Social Security covered workers Jun. 1 Electric power consumption (3) " Non energy imports (vol.) Apr. 1 Households & business financing () May. 1 Economic Sentiment Indicator Jun. 1 Large Firms Sales (5) May. 1 Central Balance Sheet (Quarterly) - Gross operating income Q ROI -Cost of debt () " INDUSTRY Composite Industry Indicator () Q.. 1 IPI calendar adjusted May. 1 Social Security covered workers Jun. 1 Business Surveys (balances in pp) Industry confidence indicator (sa) " Industry unfilled orders " Inventories " Industry capacity utilization % Q.. 1 Industry Turnover Index (7) Apr. 1 Industry new orders (7) " PMI Industry Index Jun. 1 (1) Available period data. () Adjusted for seasonal, calendar and outliers effects. (3) Adjusted for calendar and temperature effects. () Deflated by CPI without energy and food. (5) Calendar adjusted deflated and fixed sample. () Ordinary income on net assets (before taxes) minus interest on borrowed funds. (7) At current prices and adjusted for calendar. Sources: MESS, REE, BE, AEAT, INE, European Commission, SGACPE and NTC Research LTD-Reuters. 5 ACTIVITY INDICATORS Economic Sentiment Indic. (right s.) Composite Activity Indicator (y-o-y) 1 1 INDUSTRY PROD. INDEX (CALENDAR ADJUSTED) Y-o-y Annualized q-o-q ELEC. POWER CONSUM. AND LARGE FIRM SALES Large firms sales (y-o-y) Electric power consumption (y-o-y) INDUSTRY CONF. IND. AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION 11 8 ICI Cap.Utiliz.(right scale)

8 Table 3. CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES ACTIVITY INDICATORS (Year-on-year percentage change except as indicated) July 8, 1 CONSTRUCTION Previous Latest 15 1(1) 15 III 15 IV 1 I 1 II(1) data data Date Composite Construction Indicator () Q.. 1 Cement Apparent Consumption May. 1 Social Security covered workers Jun. 1 Floorage approvals: total Apr. 1 Floorage approvals: housing " Official bidding (at current prices) " Construction confidence indicator (3) Jun. 1 Mortgages. Number Apr. 1 ". Amount borrowed " Housing: Prices per sq meter Q.1. 1 Dwelling sales Apr. 1 - New " - Used " SERVICES Composite Services Indicator () Q.. 1 Social Security covered workers Jun. 1 Air traffic passengers May. 1 Railway traffic goods. (Tm per km) " Foreign tourists " Hotel overnight stays " Retail trade confidence indicator (3) Jun. 1 Services confidence indicator (3) " Services Turnover Index () Apr. 1 (1) Available period data. () Adjusted for seasonal, calendar and outliers effects. (3) Balances in percentage points. (sa). () Adjusted for calendar. Sources: OFICEMEN, MESS, MFOM, AENA, RENFE, IET, INE, European Commission and SGACPE. 8 SERVICES: SOCIAL SECURITY COVERED WORKERS AND TURNOVER INDEX () Turnover Index Social Security covered workers HOUSING PRICES AND MORTGAGES: AMOUNT BORROWED () Housing prices Mortgages: amount borrowed (right s.) CONSTRUCTION INDICATORS Confidence Indicator (balances) Composite Indicator ()(right s.) SERVICES INDICATORS Confidence Indicator (balances) Comp. Ind. ()(right s.)

9 Table. DOMESTIC DEMAND (PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT) (Year-on-year percentage change except as indicated) July 8, 1 Previous Latest 15 1(1) 15 III 15 IV 1 I 1 II(1) data data Date PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Composite Consumption Indicator () Q.. 1 Retail sales index deflated (**) May. 1 Consumer goods. Apparent consum.()(*) Apr. 1 IPI consumer goods (adjusted) May. 1 Consumer goods imports (vol.) Apr. 1 Passenger car registrations Jun. 1 Real wages (3) Q.1. 1 Consumer confidence indicator () Jun. 1 Large firms sales. Consumption (5) May. 1 EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT Composite Equipment Indicator () Q.. 1 Capital goods. Apparent consum.()(*) Apr. 1 IPI capital goods (adjusted) May. 1 Capital goods imports (vol.) Apr. 1 Truck registrations May. 1 Large firms sales. Capital (5) " BUSINESS SURVEYS Consumer goods. Capacity utilization (%) Q.. 1 Capital goods. Capacity utilization (%) " (1) Available period data. () Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. (3) Adjusted for seasonal outliers and calendar effects. And deflated by private consumption expenditure () Balances in percentage points (sa). (5) Calendar adjusted, deflated and fixed sample. (*) New methodology applied to the published data. (**) Without service station. Sources: SGACPE, INE, AEAT, European Commission, ANFAC and MIET. 55 CONSUMER CONF. INDICATOR AND PASSENGER CAR REG. (balances and ) Passenger car registrations Consumer Confidence I.(right s.) 8 1 IPI (CALENDAR ADJUSTED) -1 Consumer goods Capital goods CONSUMER GOODS: COMPOSITE AND APPARENT CONSUMPTION () 7 CAPITAL GOODS: COMPOSITE AND APPARENT CONSUMPTION () Composite Indicator (right s.) Composite Indicator Apparent Consumption Apparent Consumption

10 Table a. HOUSING INDICATORS (Year-on-year percentage change except as indicated) July 8, 1 Previous Latest 15 1(1) 15 III 15 IV 1 I 1 II(1) data data Date LEADING INDICATORS Housing starts (thousands) Mar. 15 Floorage approvals: housing Apr. 1 Official bidding. Residential " Housing order books (balances in pp) Jun. 1 COINCIDENT INDICATORS Housing investment Q.1. 1 (QNA)(1=1)() Construction GVA (QNA)(1=1)() " Composite Housing Indicator () Q.. 1 CIPI(3). Building Apr. 1 Cement apparent consumption () May. 1 IPI Clay building materials Apr. 1 Construction employment. LFS Q.1. 1 Construction unemployment. LFS " HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY Housing. Built for sale (thousands) Apr. 1 Housing sales (thousands) May. 1 - New " - Used " Non-resident foreigners transactions Q.1. 1 Housing investment deflator (QNA) () " Housing Price Index " - New " - Used " Rental CPI May. 1 FINANCIAL CONDITIONS New housing mortgages - Number Apr. 1 - Amount borrowed " Interest rate on house purchase () May. 1 Credit to households for housing " Delinquency household loans ratio (%) Q.. 15 Affordability based on wages (%) (5) " 1) Available period data. () Calendar and seasonal adjusted series. (3) Construction Industry Production Index. () To households. Annual equivalent rate. (5) Without deductions. Sources: MECC, INE, MFOM, OFICEMEN, MIET, EUROSTAT and BE. HOUSING. BUILT FOR SALE AND NEW SALES thousands 7 35 Housing: built for sale New housing sales 5 7 HOUSING STARTS AND ACCRUED thousands Housing starts Housing accrued

11 HOUSING INVESTMENT AND COMPOSITE INDICATOR 15 CEMENT CONSUMPTION AND CIPI BUILDING 5 Cement consumption CIPI Building 5-5 Housing investment (QNA) 5 5 Composite Housing Indicator ORDER BOOKS & CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE balances in pp Housing order books Construction confidence indicator HOUS.FLOORAGE APPROVALS & IPI CLAY BUILDING (smoothed) 1 Housing floorage approvals IPI Clay building materials CREDIT FOR HOUSE PURCHASE & MORTGAGES Credit to households Mortgages: amount borrowed (right s.) HOUSING PRICE & INTEREST RATE & percentage Housing Prices per m Interest rate on house purchase (right s.) 5, - 3, , UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & AFFORDABILITY percentage 3 HOUSEHOLDS LOANS DELINQUENCY RATIO percentage 8 5 Unemployment rate Affordability based on wages (right s.)

12 Table 5. EXTERNAL DEMAND, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND NET EXTERNAL RESERVES July 8, 1 Total Jan.-last month (1) 1() 15() 15 1 Previous Latest Date FOREIGN TRADE (Custom basis) Million euros: - Exports Apr. 1 - Imports Trade balance % change year on year:- Exports. Value BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Million euros) Volume Imports. Value Volume Trade balance. Value Goods and services Apr. 1 Primary and secondary incomes Current balance Capital balance Current and capital balance Net change in assets, excluding BE Net change in liabilities, excluding BE NCA-NCL, excluding BE Net change in BE position with Eurosystem BE net position with the Eurosystem (3) Q.1. 1 (1) Accumulated figures. () 1 customs data are final, 15 data are provisional. (3) End of period data. Sources: DA, BE and SGACPE. 5 EXPORTS. VOLUME 3 IMPORTS. VOLUME Smoothed Original Smoothed Original BALANCE OF PAYMENTS quarterly averages. Billion euros Current & capital balance - - NET CHANGE IN BE POSITION WITH EUROSYSTEM billion euros - Trade balance

13 Table. LABOUR MARKET July 8, 1 Latest data Change over previous year, thousands Percentage change over previous year Average Average Previous Latest Average Average Previous Latest Date Thousands 15 1(1) data data 15 1(1) data data LABOUR FORCE SURVEY Labour force Q Employment " Non agricultural " Wage earners " Temporary workers " Permanent workers " Unemployment " % of labour force Points of change over previous year Unemployment rate " Male " Female " Young (1 years) " PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT SERVICES Change over previous year,thousands Percentage change over previous year Registered unemployed Jun Registered contracts " Permanent contracts " Temporary contracts " SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM Covered workers () Jun Payroll employment () " (1) Available data period. () Monthly average Sources: INE, MESS and SPEE. EMPLOYMENT % change over previous year Employment LFS UNEMPLOYED % change over previous year 3 Social security covered workers Unemployment LFS Registered unemployment EMPLOYEES % change over previous year Total 3 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE % of labour force All 3 Permanent workers 7 Men Women

14 Table 7. PRICES AND WAGES (Year-on-year percentage change) July 8, 1 DEC. DEC Previous Latest (1) 1 15 data data Date CONSUMER PRICES (CPI). Headline May. 1 Food " Non food " - Industry excluding energy " - Services " - Energy " Core () " HARMONIZED INFLATION DIFF.(3): Total Jun. 1 Core May. 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCER PRICES: Total " Consumer goods " UNIT VALUE INDEX: Exports Apr. 1 Imports " WAGES: Collective bargaining () May. 1 Total labour cost per worker (5) Q.I. 1 - Wage costs " - Non-wage costs " (1) Available data period. () CPI excluding energy and non-processed food. (3) Difference between Spanish and Euro area harmonized inflation, in percentage points. () Data include the application of wage revision clauses in annual average data (except for the current year). (5) Data for December refer to th quarters. Sources: INE, Eurostat, DA, SGACPE and MESS. CONSUMER PRICES 1 PRODUCER PRICES 5 Headline inflation -5 All items Core inflation Consumer goods HARMONIZED INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS percentage points Headline WAGE INCREASE 1 Core -1 Agreed wages index Total wage cost per worker

15 Table 8. PUBLIC SECTOR: STATE OPERATIONS (Accumulated figures in million euro) July 8, 1 IN CASH BASIS IN CASH BASIS NATIONAL ACCOUNTING December December % May May % May May % REVENUE Taxes Personal income tax Corporate income tax VAT Excise duties Other taxes Other revenue (1) EXPENDITURE Wages and salaries () Goods and services Interest payments Current transfers () Fixed investment Capital transfers NET OVERALL BALANCE (1) Pro-memoria Total taxes (3) Personal income tax VAT Excise duties (1) Includes fees, property income and current and capital transfers. () Homogenized data in relation to the change in the treatment of pensions paid by the State. (3) Includes the participation of regional and local governments. Source: MINHAP. STATE OPERATIONS Accumulated figures in the last 1 months ( billion) 5 Revenue Expenditure 175 PERSONAL INCOME TAX Accumulated figures in the last 1 months ( billion) Net Overall Balance CORPORATE INCOME TAX Accumulated figures in the last 1 months ( billion) 5 VALUE ADDED TAX Accumulated figures in the last 1 months ( billion)

16 Table 9. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR July 8, 1 DEC APR MAY JUN JUN-3 JUL-7 RESIDENTS FINANCING (1) Total financing (loans and securities) Non-financial corporations Households General government INTEREST RATES () ECB Intervention rate (3) Euribor rates: 3 month month year Gov. Bond yield: Spain Germany US year spreads: Spain-Germany US-Germany Banks rates: Total Loans. Synthetic rate Mortgage loans (households) Deposits. Synthetic rate STOCK EXCHANGE MADRID. IBEX-35 () EXCHANGE RATES () US $/ Jp / Nominal effective () (1) Year-on-year percentage change. () Period averages. (3) Data at the end of period. () Percentage change from the beginning of the year. Sources: BE, ECB, FT, Madrid stock exchange and MECC RESIDENTS' FINANCING Total Non-financ.corporations Households General government year government bond 1 month euribor INTEREST RATES Porcentages DIFFERENTIAL WITH GERMANY 1 year, basis points Spain Greece Ireland Portugal Italy France US/ Jp / EURO EXCHANGE RATE Index 3=

17 Table 1. INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS (I) July 8, 1 15 GDP % change IPI % change Latest q-o-q y-o-y 3 months (1) 1 year CPI % annual change Previous Latest Unemployment rate % Labour force () Previous Budget balance () % GDP Latest 1 17 Germany 1..7 I May.1.3 Jun.1.1 Jun.3. France 1..7 I May.. Jun I U.Kingdom.. I May.3.3 May.. May Italy..3 I Apr Jun May.3. Spain (3) 3..8 I May May.9 1. I EU I Apr May May - - Euro area 1.. I Apr Jun May US...3 I May May 5..7 May Japan..5 I May May May OECD.1. IV Mar.8.8 May.. Apr.9. (1) Average of last 3 months relative to the previous 3 months average.() European Commission, IMF and OECD. (3) In Spain IPI, calendar adjusted and s.a.. () In Germany and United Kingdom, registered unemployment. Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, OECD, The Economist and MECC. 8 GDP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. Smoothed series Spain Germany France US Spain Germany France US CPI 5 BUDGET BALANCE % GDP - Spain Germany France US Spain France Germany US

18 Table 11. INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS (II) July 8, 1 Exports of goods (1) % change 1 1 month year Imports of goods (1) % change 1 1 month year Stock markets (3) Current account % change bn % GDP () latest 1 m week Germany May.1.3 May 7.9 I France May May -8. May U.Kingdom May May -1.9 I Italy.7. Apr 3.9. Apr 35.8 Jan Spain.1.5 Apr Apr 18. Apr EU.. Apr Apr Euro area.9. Apr. -3. Apr 39. Apr US May May 8.7 I Japan May May May (1) All data seasonally adjusted. () Economic forecasts of European Commission, IMF and OECD. (3) Previous data. Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, OECD, The Economist and MECC. 5 EXPORTS OF GOODS. Smoothed series IMPORTS OF GOODS. Smoothed series 15 Spain Gerrmany France US Spain Germany France US CURRENT ACCOUNT % GDP STOCK MARKETS December =1 8 Spain Germany France US Spain Germany US

19 July 8, 1 Table 1. SUMMARY OF INDICATORS Year-on-year percentage change except as indicated D. G. de Análisis Macroeconómico y Economía Internacional S. G. de Análisis Coyuntural y Previsiones Económicas Last Quarters Previous data (1) III.15 IV.15 I.1 II.1(1) Date Activity GDP volume (QNA)() Q Domestic demand contribution () Q Net exports contribution () Q.1. 1 Composite Activity Indicator (sca) Q.. 1 Large Firms Sales (3) May. 1 Economic Sentiment Indicator Jun. 1 Electric power consumption () Jun. 1 IPI calendar adjusted May. 1 Industrial Confidence Indicator (5) Jun. 1 Cement Apparent Consumption May. 1 Industry capacity utilization % Q.. 1 Domestic Demand Consumer Goods. Apparent cons.(*) Apr. 1 Retail sales index (3)(**) May. 1 Passenger car registrations () Jun. 1 Consumer confidence indicator (5) Jun. 1 Capital Goods. Apparent cons.(*) Apr. 1 Truck registrations () May. 1 Private Sector Financing (def.) May. 1 External Demand (Custom Basis) Export of goods: Value Apr. 1 Volume Apr. 1 Import of goods: Value Apr. 1 Volume Apr. 1 Trade balance. Value (mill. )(7) Apr. 1 Labour Market Labour force Q.1. 1 Employment Q.1. 1 Unemployment Q Unemployment rate % of lab.force Q.1. 1 Registered unemployment Jun. 1 SS covered workers Jun. 1 Prices and Wages CPI May. 1 Core CPI (8) May. 1 CPI differential eurozone (9) May. 1 Producer prices May. 1 Wages Collective bargaining (1) May. 1 Total labour cost per worker Q.1. 1 Public sector. State operations March April May Net borrowing (-) %GDP (11) Monetary and Financial Sector (1) 1 Mar. Apr. May. Jun. 3-Jun 3-Jun 7-Jul Eurozone intervention rate (13) M Interbank rate.euribor Y Interbank rate. Euribor Y Gov.Bond yield Spain Differential Spain - Germany Exchange rate ($/ ) Stock exchange Madrid IBEX-35 (1) Memorandum Items EE.UU Intervention rate.(13) Brent oil Price $ per barrel (1) Available period data. () Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects; contributions in percentage points. (ESA 1 new base 1). (3) Calendar adjusted data () Adjusted for calendar and temperature effects. (5) Balances in %.(sa). () ANFAC estimation. (7) Monthly average. (8) CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food. (9) Difference between Spanish and Euro zone harmonized CPI. (1) Accumulated figures; annual data include the application of wage revision clauses. (11) Accumulated data since January. (1) Period averages. (13) Level at the end of the period. (1) Percentage change accumulated since the beginning of the year.(*) New methodology applied to the published data Indicator.(**) Without service station. Source: S. G. de Análisis Coyuntural y Previsiones Económicas. from different sources. Latest data

20 Graph 1. SUMMARY INDICATORS GDP AND COMPONENTS (Adjusted Data) Domestic Demand (contrib.) GDP Net exports (contrib.) DOMESTIC DEMAND: COMPONENTS (Adjusted Data) Households Cons.Exp. GFCF Equip.and others GFCF Construction INDUSTRY: PRODUCTION AND CONFIDENCE and balances 8 ACTIVITY INDICATORS Large Firms Sales (left) 1 Econ.Sent.I.(right) Elect.Power Con (left) IPI calendar adjusted - 9 ICl IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. CUSTOMS (volume) Imports Exports CONSUMER GOODS. APPARENT CONSUMPTION 15 Consumer goods (adjusted) Capital goods (adjusted) EMPLOYMENT () Employment LFS CONSUMER PRICES () Social Security covered workers CPI Core inflation D. G. de Análisis Macroeconómico y Economía Internacional S. G. de Análisis Coyuntural y Previsiones Económicas