Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions
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1 Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance IMFS Working Lunch, Frankfurt (Main), 15 July
2 Triangle of Stability 2
3 Instability threatens independence of monetary policy Fiscal dominance Macroeconomic imbalances Financial dominance 3
4 Public debt at record highs, peaking Public debt as a percentage of GDP Euro area 70.5* 65 78,4 94,2 92,5 Germany 60,2 63,7 72, ¾ France 60,2 64,4 79,0 95,0 97,0 Italy 109,6 99,7 112,5 132,1 130,6 Spain 60,9 35,5 52,7 97,7 101,4 Portugal 51,0 68,4 83,6 130,2 123,0 Greece 88,5* 103,1 126,8 177,1 173,5 Ireland 46,7 24,0 62,3 109,7 103,8 UK 41,9 43,6 65,8 89,4 90,1 Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015); for ; AMECO; : Euro area excluding EST and GRC (16 countries); Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points * European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015) [Statistical Annex] 4
5 but primary balance still often in deficit Primary net lending/borrowing as a percentage of GDP Euro area Germany ½ France 0,1-4,8-1,8-1,3 Italy 3,2-0,9 1,6 2,3 Spain 3, Portugal -0,1-6,8 0,5 1,7 Greece -2,2-10,3 0,4 1,8 Ireland 1,3-11,9-0,1 0,6 UK -0,8-8,9-2,9-0,5 Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015); for : AMECO; : Euro area excluding EST and GRC (16 countries); Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points 5
6 Healthier government expenditure growth Before crisis: skyrocketed in some countries After crisis: reduced sharply 10,00% 9,00% average annual growth rate of nominal government expenditure ,00% 2,00% average annual growth rate of nominal government expenditure ,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% -2,00% -3,00% -4,00% -5,00% FRA ITA DEU PRT GRC IRE ESP 0,00% FRA ITA DEU PRT GRC* IRE ESP Source: AMECO (COM Spring forecast 2015 ); *ESA95 Eurostat 6-6,00%
7 Public expenditure ratios: room for reduction Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP Euro area 47,5* 45,3 50,6 49,0 48,0 Germany 47,6 42,7 47,4 43,9 43 ¾ France 52,1 52,2 56,8 57,2 56,5 Italy 47,3 46,8 51,1 51,1 49,9 Spain 39,9 38,9 45,8 43,6 41,4 Portugal 36,6 40,8 45,3 45,7 44,7 Greece 44,5* 46,9 54,0 49,3 47,9 Ireland 34,0 35,9 47,6 39,0 36,8 UK 38,2 42,9 49,7 44,4 41,9 Singapur 22,8 12,0 18,0 18,2 20,4 Korea Source: European Commission Spring Forecast (5 May 2015); For Singapur and Korea: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2015); for : AMECO; : Euro area excluding EST and GRC (16 countries); Germany: Federal Statistical Office and MoF-Projection rd. on ¼ percentage points *ESA 1995, Eurostat 17,2 20,5 21,3 21,3 20,8 7
8 Instability threatens independence of monetary policy Fiscal dominance Macroeconomic imbalances Financial dominance 8
9 Unit labour cost divergence reversing Euro area = 100 Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015) 9
10 Macroeconomic rebalancing in progress Exports of goods and services at constant prices, avg. growth rate Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015) 10
11 Unemployment rates high, improvements 11Source: AMECO (COM Spring Forecast 2015)
12 Instability threatens independence of monetary policy Fiscal dominance Macroeconomic imbalances Financial dominance 12
13 Private sector debt stabilizing at high levels Debt outstanding in percent of GDP Private Households Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland United Kingdom Nonfinancial Corporations Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Greece Ireland United Kingdom Source: Statistical Data Warehouse, June Annual data; except for GRC and ITA 2014: Quarterly data Q4
14 Financial sector more resilient Tier 1 Capital Ratio 2008Q4 2014Q DEU FRA ITA ESP PRT GRC IRE UK 14 Source: ECB, Consolidated Banking Data
15 but sovereign-bank nexus still high 15 Source: ECB
16 How to unburden monetary policy? Rules-based fiscal framework sustainable public finances Economic policy coordination, single market flexible factor markets, competitiveness, employment and growth Well-regulated financial markets financing of real economy, financial stability 16
17 Strategy for stabilising Economic and Monetary Union AIM Reduce government debt Coordinate economic policies Stabilise financial market CRISIS PREVENTION Stability and Growth Pact and Fiscal Compact MTOs and 3% limit; adjustment path Binding debt reduction (debt percentage-60% x 1 / 20 p.a.) Quasi-automatic sanctions (including deposits and fines) National debt brakes Europa 2020 Macroeconomic surveillance procedure Euro Plus Pact Financial market reform New oversight mechanisms for the EU financial market (at both the macro and the micro levels) Stricter regulation (including increases in capital) Banking Union including a Single Supervisory Mechanism as well as new rules for the resolution of banks and a single bank resolution fund EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE 17 European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Permanent protective mechanism European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) Temporary rescue package
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