Central Government Budget Bill for 2014
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1 Central Government Budget Bill for 2014 September 30th
2 Spain Macroeconomic Scenario Year on year % change Real GDP -1,6-1,3 0,7 Nominal GDP -1,7-0,3 2,1 Private Consumption -2,8-2,6 0,2 Government Consumption -4,8-2,3-2,9 Gross Capital Formation -6,9-6,1 0,2 Domestic Demand(*) -4,1-3,2-0,4 Exports of goods and services 2,1 5,7 5,5 Imports of goods and services -5,7-0,3 2,4 External Demand(*) 2,5 1,9 1,2 Employment (**) -4,8-3,4-0,2 Unemployment rate 25,0 26,6 25,9 Net lending (+)/ borrow. (-) with the RoW(***) -0,6 2,3 3,4 % change GDP 2014 BUDGET ,7 AFI 0,5 BBVA 0,9 Bankia 0,8 Catalunya Caixa 0,8 Cemex 0,8 CEEM_URJC 1,1 CEPREDE 0,9 CEOE 0,8 FUNCAS 1,0 ICAE_UCM 0,5 IEE 0,7 Instituto Macroeconomía y Fin. 0,6 IFL-UC3M 0,3 Intermoney 0,5 La Caixa 0,8 Repsol 0,8 Santander 0,9 Solchaga Recio & asociados 0,8 (*) Contribution to GDP growth; (**) EPA / LFS figures; (***) % of GDP 2
3 Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) by institutional sector (% GDP) Foundations of Economic Growth: Net lending, low inflation (less than 1%) and access to financial markets *2011, 2012 y 2013 Net of financial assisstance one-offs. Source: INE and IGAE Quarterly data (% QGDP) 2012 average 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 Net lending (+) vis-à-vis ROW -0,6-5,2-1,0 1,1 2,7-0,7 2,7 3
4 Fiscal Consolidation and Economic Growth Fiscal Contraction (+) or Fiscal Expansion (-) vs Economic Growth 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0 Fiscal Contraction (+) Expansion (-) Real GDP growth Source: OECD and European Commission. Fiscal effort measured as the OECD cyclically adjusted balance. Since 2009, European Commission Cyclically adjusted balance once the one-off financial measures have been deducted. General Government growth forecast for 2013 and Fiscal effort target. 4
5 45,00 General Government Primary expenditure/gdp (% GDP) Public expenditure reduction and fiscal consolidation. International Comparison 4,0 Change in cyclically adjusted primary balance (as % of potential GDP) 44,00 43,00 42,00 41,00 40,00 39,00 38,00 37,00 36,00 35,00 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0 3,3 3,1 2,7 2,3 2,0 1,7 1,4 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,7 0,60,50,40,3 Finland Austria Switzerland Belgium United Kingdom Slovak Republic Korea France Canada Portugal Netherlands United States Germany Australia Ireland Iceland New Zealand Italy Slovenia Spain Greece 0,2 0,0 Denmark Singapore Norway Israel Japan Hong Kong SAR Czech Republic Sweden -0,6-0,7-0,9-1,0-1,8 Financial assisstance not included. Source: IGAE, Ministry of Finance and Public Administration Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor April
6 General Government (National Accounts) 2012 results (million ) 2012: Unprecedented Fiscal Consolidation Effort 2011 (F)* 2012 (P) DEFICIT REDUCTION (+)2012 Central Government** Regional Governments Local Entities Social Security REVENUE INCREASE GENERAL GOVERNMENT** EXPENDITURE REDUCTION *2011 Data before funding system settlements. ** Net of one-offs to the financial sector. F: Final P: Provisional. (annual change in million ) EFFORT ACOMPLISHED EXPENDITURE REDUCTION EFFORT Unemployment benefits, Pensions & other Social transfer payments Interest on public debt (EDP) Source: IGAE REVENUE INCREASE PUBLIC DEFICIT REDUCTION
7 Public Consumption (y-o-y % change) Fiscal Consolidation: public consumption and civil servants Public sector employees (y-o-y change) Annual data Quarterly data Source: INE Source: INE, Social Security employees: Public Administration, Defence Social Security, Education, health, Social Services. 7
8 Private Sector Deleveraging and Improving Capitalization Saving and Investment of Non-Financial Firms (as % of GDP) Listed Companies (Million ) Source: INE Source: Bank of Spain; Companies 8
9 Unit Labour Costs (Base year 2005=100) Competitiveness, trade balance improvement and increasing FDI Non-energy trade balance (million ) Source: OECD Source: Bank of Spain Foreign Direct Investment Flows in Spain (as % of GDP) Source: Bank of Spain 9
10 Budget Stability Targets Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) requirement (as % of GDP) Targets Central Government -5,20-4,24-3,80-3,70-2,90-2,10 Regional Governments -3,41-1,84-1,30-1,00-0,70-0,20 Local Entities -0,39 0,22 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Social Security -0,07-0,99-1,40-1,10-0,60-0,50 General Government -9,07-6,84-6,5-5,8-4,2-2,8 Net of one-offs to the financial sector. One-offs: 0,49pp 2011, 3,8 p 2012, 0,3pp 2013 estimate. Source: IGAE 10
11 Revenues BUDGET 2013 COLLECTION BUDGET 2014 ( million ) % change (1) (2) (3) (3)/(1) (3)/(2) 1. TAX REVENUE (before transfers to Territorial Entities) ,1 2,4 PERSONAL INCOME TAX ,4 1,7 CORPORATE TAX ,4 5,4 VAT ,4 2,7 EXCISE TAXES ,1 0,5 OTHER ,5 3,6 2. TAX REVENUE (after transfers to Territorial Entities) ,5 1,8 3. NON-TAX REVENUES ,0-0,9 4. TOTAL NON FINANCIAL REVENUE (2+3) (after transfers to Territorial Entities) ,9 1,3 11
12 Available expenditure for the Ministries Distribution of Central Government Expenditure (million ) % change M % 1. Non-financial expenditure limit ,7 2. Interests ,2 3. Other Ministerial Expenditure ,9 4. NON FINANCIAL EXPENDITURE OF THE MINISTRIES (1-2-3) ,6 5. Social Security Contributions, Transfers to the Public Employment Service, contributions to electricity system costs" ,8 6. AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE FOR THE MINISTRIES ( ) ,7 main actions: - R&D+i ,3 - Education grants ,5 - Theater and Sports Federations ,1 - Housing Plan ,8 12
13 Summary by ministries Million SECTIONS Difference % change 2014/13 12: MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND COOPERATION ,8 12: MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (1) ,4 13: M. OF JUSTICE ,3 14: M. OF DEFENCE ,2 15: M. OF FINANCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONS ,9 16: M. OF THE INTERIOR ,2 17: M. OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT (FOMENTO) ,2 17: M. OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT excluding obligations of previous financial years ,5 18: M. OF EDUCATION, CULTURE AND SPORTS ,6 19: M. OF EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY ,5 20: M. OF INDUSTRY, ENERGY AND TOURISM ,6 20: M. OF INDUSTRY, ENERGY AND TOURISM excluding electricity system costs ,7 23: M. OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENVIROMENT ,0 25: M. OF THE PRESIDENCY ,6 26: M. OF PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL SERVICES AND EQUALITY ,6 26: M. Of Public Health, Social Services and Equality (2) ,0 27: M. OF ECONOMY AND COMPETITIVENESS ,5 27. M. OF ECONOMY AND COMPETITIVENESS (3) ,1 31: MISCELLANEOUS MINISTRIES EXPENDITURE ,4 TOTAL MINISTRIES EXPENDITURE , , ,6 excluding contributions to the Social Security, Public Employment Service and electricity system costs , , ,7 (1) Homogeneous data, according to the budgetary treatment of the international organisations fees. (2) Homogeneous data, excluding obligations of previous financial years, transfers to the Hospital Clínico and the Health Cohesion Fund. (3) Homogeneous, excluding contributions to European Organization for Nuclear Research, contributions to Greek Security Market Program portfolio(233m ), transfers to the National Market Commission 13 and the National Competition Commission (CNMC).
14 Economic classification of ministries expenditure 2014 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET Ministries Excluding contributions to electricity sector costs, Social Public Employment Service and Social Security (million ) SECTIONS % CHANGE % CHANGE BUDGET BUDGET 2013/2012 BUDGET / MillIon % MillIon % I. Personnel expenditure , ,3 Active employees , ,6 Mutualism , ,8 II. Current expenditure on goods and services , ,1 M. of the Interior , ,9 Other sections , ,0 III. Financial expenditure , ,2 IV. Current Transfers , ,2 Current Operations , ,2 V. Contingency Fund and other unforeseen issues , VI. Real Investments , ,6 VII. Capital Transfers , ,6 Capital Operations , ,3 NON-FINANCIAL BUDGET , ,7 *VIII. Financial assets , ,6 NON-FINANCIAL BUDGET+CHAPTER , ,7 (*) Excluding contributions to ESM, Financing Mechanism for the payment to suppliers arrears and Regional Liquidity Mechanism, chapter 8 decreases by 4,4%. 14
15 Spending Policies Consolidated Budget POLICIES BUDGET 2013 % /total BUDGET 2014 % /total % BASIC PUBLIC SERVICES , ,6-1,8 SOCIAL EXPENDITURE , ,6 4,4 ECONOMIC AFFAIRS , ,1 6,3 GENERAL PUBLIC SERVICES , ,6 0,0 CHAPTERS 1 THROUGH , ,00 2,7 15
16 Distribution of Consolidated expenditure 16
17 Territorial funding % Territorial funding ,65% Regional Governments funding ,61% Local Entities funding ,46% 17
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