Q4.14 Financial Results. March 23, 2015

Transcription

1 Q4.14 Financial Results March 23, 2015

2 Table of Contents 1 Results overview 2 Liquidity 3 Profitability 4 Asset quality 5 Capital 6 Appendix

3 Results overview 1

4 4Q14 results: key take-aways Liquidity Group deposits edge up 3% yoy fending off domestic outflows Turkey provides diversification, deposits +14% yoy Low L:D and substantial Eurosystem liquidity buffers provide a strong shield 6.2bn outflows in 5 months since end of Q3.14 Profitability FY.14 Core pre provision earnings up 28% yoy, driven by Greece up 77% Group Core Operating Profit reaches 229m reversing FY.13 losses of 226m Net profits including one offs at 66m, before one offs at 174m DTA recognized in 2014 neutralizes the implications of a deteriorating economic cycle Profitability Q4.14 Increase in NII across all regions (+3%) Costs down 14% vs. Q4.13 Run rate CoR absorbed by core PPI Asset quality 90dpd flows kept abating in Q4 across all jurisdictions 90dpd ratio contained to a best-in-class 31.9% in Greece and 24.3% for the Group The economic uncertainty since the end of Q4.14 and during 2015 has increased substantially the domestic impairment model s parameters were revised accordingly Coverage boosted to more than 60% Capital CAD remains strong post the one off provisioning adjustment CET1 at 13.6% Fully loaded BSIII at 9.4% excluding the impact of capital actions 3 Results overview

5 Liquidity 2

6 Despite domestic outflows in Q4, Group deposits end up +3% yoy aided by Turkey; Domestic deposits stabilizing in March Deposits evolution by geography ( bn) Gross loans evolution by geography ( bn) YoY YoY Group % Group % SEE & other 7,5 7,4 7,5 7,3 7,3-1.7% 7,4 7,4 SEE & Other 6,6 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 +2.2% 6,6 6,6 6,6 16,2 17,1 17,4 18,9 19, % 20,2 20, % (TL) 12,6 13,6 13,0 14,2 14, % 15,0 15,0 15,3 +9.2% (TL) Turkey Turkey 43,7 45, ,1 43,9 +0.5% 41,2 39,9 39,7-6.4bn 46,5 46,0 45,5 45,2 45,3-2.5% 45,7 45,8 Greece 3Q14 to 15 March Greece 2 1 Jan Feb 15 Mar 2 1 Jan Feb Provisional data 5 Liquidity

7 Low L:D starting point absorbs outflows, remaining below 100% L:D ratio evolution Greek deposit flows per category ( bn) 165% 115% 113% 110% 106% 109% Peer average 1 Greece QoQ ytd 0,3 0,1 +5% +1% 116% -0,7-5% 110% -2,6-11% -0,9-15% 97% 90% 93% 94% 93% 95% Group -2,2-2,6-12% 84% 83% 81% 83% Greece -4,2 2Q12 4Q14 15 Mar Savings Sight Time & other 1. Simple arithmetic average 6 Liquidity

8 Current cash value of excess Eurosystem collateral amounts to 15bn Eurosystem exposure evolution ( bn) Eurosystem collateral breakdown ( bn) 13 Mar ,7 2,2 4,2 1,2 2,5 1,0 1,1 0,1 23,0 Pillar-2 Other ,2 Pillar-3 30 Sep 2014 Δ Depos Q4 Δ Depos ytd Δ State depos Eurosystem funding ( bn) Δ repos Δ secur Δ loans Δ other 15 Mar 2015 ECB: 10.1bn EFSF 9.2 ELA ,5 3,3 1,1 4,3 3,8 1,4 Cov. bonds Greek Sov. Credit claims Securitizations Other 34,7 20,7 18,0 ECB 11,0 10,7 14, ,3 ELA 13% of Group assets 1 cash value of eligible collateral: 37.7bn 9,7 ECB 2Q12 15 Mar Excl. EFSF bonds 7 Liquidity

9 Profitability 3

10 Group Core PPI, +28% yoy excl. FX, reflects domestic cost cutting and group core income stabilization Group core PPI evolution ( m) FY14 net profit ( m) +28% yoy % yoy Group recurring Group SEE & other 32 Turkey 318 Greece -283 FY13 Core PPI ΔNII ΔFees ΔOpEx FY14 Core PPI FX impact FY14 Core PPI after FX Non-core FY14 PPI 9 Profitability

11 Group Core PPI performance is spearheaded by Greece, up +77% yoy Core PPI Greece ( m) Core PPI Turkey (TL m) % yoy +5% yoy FY13 NII Fees OpEx FY Core PPI SEE & other ( m) +20% yoy FY13 NII Fees OpEx FY14 FY13 NII Fees OpEx FY14 10 Profitability

12 Despite headwinds, Q4 Group Core PPI absorbs CoR Core PPI by region quarterly evolution ( m) Group core operating profit ( m) SEE & Other Turkey Greece 1 FY13 FY14 Core Oper Profit Core PPI Provisions 11 Profitability

13 Group NIM improves as Turkey s contribution in NII increases Group NII & NIM NII per region ( m) FY14 FY13 yoy 344 Greece % 336 Turkey (TL m) % SEE & other % 317 Group NII % +3% qoq Fees & commissions per region ( m) Total SEE & other Turkey Insurance Greece 1 NII ( m) NIM (bps) Pillar 2 cost 1. Excluding cost for Pillar-2 Govt. guarantees 12 Profitability

14 NII improved qoq across all regions Greece Turkey NII (TLm) NII ( m) NIM (bps) SEE & other NII ( m) NIM (bps) NII ( m) NIM (bps) 13 Profitability

15 Time deposit repricing continues in Q4 despite tight liquidity conditions Greek deposit spreads (bps) Greek deposits evolution ( bn) Core Total New production: 150 bps Time 43,7 21,2 45,9 46,0 46,1 24,1 23,5 23,7 43,9 20,9 +0.3% yoy Time bps 6,8 6,4 6,8 6,8 7,2 Sight & other ,7 15,4 15,6 15,6 15,7 Savings 14 Profitability

16 Greek lending spreads stabilize as corporate spread pick up offsets retail spread compression Greek lending spread (bps) Greek gross loans evolution ( bn) Consumer Total lending spread (bps) SBLs 46,5 46,0 45,5 45,2 45,3-2% yoy 17,3 17,2 17,0 16,9 17,3 Corporate Corporate 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,1 4,0 6,3 6,2 6,1 5,9 5,7 SBL Consumer ,5 18,4 18,2 18,2 18,2 Mortgages Mortgages 15 Profitability

17 Deposit vs. loans yield movement improves both in Turkey and SEE in 4Q14 Turkey lending yield Turkey deposit cost 12,50% 12,40% 12,79% 12,35% 12,20% 46,0 48,5 48,7 52,2 52,8-15bps qoq 6,84% 7,30% 5,97% 6,30% 6,08% 37,3 40,4 37,7 40,8 40,7-22bps qoq Net loans (TL bn) Loans' yield Deposits (TL bn) Deposit cost SEE & other lending yield SEE & other deposit cost 7,60% 7,37% 7,83% 8,39% 7,49% -90bps qoq 3,59% 3,26% 5,03% 4,84% 3,46% -138bps qoq 6,4 6,4 6,4 6,3 6,2 6,6 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 Net loans ( bn) Loans' yield Deposits ( bn) Deposit cost 16 Profitability

18 Group cost containment is led by impressive domestic cost cutting (-15% yoy) and tight cost control in Turkey Group Opex by geography ( m) Greek OpEx evolution ( m) Cost-to-income ratios (%) FY14 FY13 yoy % Greece 60,3 70,3-10pps Greece % Turkey % SEE & other % Group Opex % +2% in TL terms Turkey Group FY14 50,6 49,5 56,3 60,3 FY13 +1pps -4pps Group OpEx by category ( m) Headcount evolution ( 000) 212 FY14 FY13 yoy ,3 35,0 35,0 34,9 34,1 Personnel % G&As % 15,1 15,2 14,9 14,2 13,9 Turkey Depreciation % Group Opex % Staff G&A and other 14,5 12,0 12,3 12,3 12,2 Greece 17 Profitability

19 Asset quality 4

20 Higher provisions in Q4 and reduced 90dpd formation lift coverage to 60% Group 90 dpd ratio Greece 90 dpd ratio 23,6% 24,2% 24,4% 24,4% 24,3% 29,0% 30,3% 31,0% 31,6% 31,9% Coverage 53.5% 53.2% 53.6% 54.4% 60.4% Coverage 52.7% 52.4% 52.9% 53.6% 60.2% Turkey 90 dpd ratio SEE & other 90 dpd ratio 6,1% 6,0% 5,5% 5,5% 5,3% 28,0% 28,5% 27,8% 28,2% 27,6% Coverage 67.5% 70.6% 68.0% 69.6% 74.9% Coverage 51.4% 50.2% 51.8% 51.9% 54.4% Incl. TL 0.5bn NPL sale; 2. incl. TL 0.3bn NPL sale 19 Asset quality

21 90dpd formation down 23% qoq Group Greece dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) CoR (bps) 90dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) CoR (bps) Turkey SEE & other dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) CoR (bps) dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) CoR (bps) 20 Asset quality

22 Domestic corporate formation slows down further; Retail formation only slightly affected by pre-election uncertainty in 4Q14 Mortgages 1 ( m) Consumer ( m) Q13 2Q13 3Q132 SBLs ( m) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Corporate ( m) Q13 2Q13 3Q13 1Q13 2Q13 3Q dpd 21 Asset quality

23 Domestic coverage levels are pushed up to reflect more conservative estimates underlying the impairment model 90 dpd - NPE reconciliation ( bn) Greek NPEs and coverage by segment Total Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporate 90 dpd % 68% Forborne not yet cured < % Forborne not yet cured % 76% 57% 34% Other impaired loans NPEs % 51% 45% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total Cash coverage Greek restructured loans flows Greek 90 dpd and coverage by segment Corporate Retail QoQ -23% -19% -26% 29% 25% 52% 90% 56% 69% 32% 23% 77% 60% Cash coverage Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total 22 Asset quality

24 Capital 5

25 Capitalization remains strong as post provisioning adjustment CET1 and FL BSIII ratios settle at 13.6% and 9.4% - no capital actions included CET 1 ratio Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation 16,2% 15,8% 8,0 1,4 0,3 8, ,6% Excluding all capital actions 10,5% -2.3% -1.9% 9,4% Ordinary equity GW & intangibles State prefs Q3 to Q4 CET 1 reconciliation Minority interest CET 1 15,8% -3bps -183bps -1bps -16bps -19bps 13,6% RWAs ( bn): 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 State Prefs Other BIII FLT (2024 CRDIV rules) CET 1 3Q14 PAT excl. one-offs One-offs RWAs movement AFS Other CET 1 3Q14 24 Capital

26 Appendix 6

27 Appendix: P&L 1/2 Group Greece m FY14 FY13 yoy% 4Q14 3Q14 qoq% NII % % Net fees % % Insurance income % % Trading & other income (75) (63) (36) 75% Income % % Operating Expenses (2 067) (2 354) -12% (546) (510) +7% Pre-Provision Income % % Provisions (1 450) (1 627) -11% (378) (368) 3% Operating Profit 154 (76) - (15) 45 - Taxes 112 (86) % Minorities, non cash charges & other impairments (92) (27) (24) +13% PAT (before one-offs) % (16) 81 - Other one-offs (1 093) (51) >100% Attributable PAT % (1 109) 30 - m FY14 FY13 yoy% 4Q14 3Q14 qoq% NII % % Net fees % % Insurance income % % Trading & other income (62) 95 - (72) (34) >100% Income % % Operating Expenses (1 051) (1 236) -15% (268) (265) +1% Pre-Provision Income % % Provisions (1 051) (1 185) -11% (274) (261) +5% Operating Profit (359) (663) -46% (155) (107) +46% Taxes >100% % Minorities, non cash charges & other impairments (80) (23) (24) -4% PAT before one-offs (238) (133) +78% (137) (38) >100% Other one-offs (45) (474) -90% (1 033) (49) >100% Attributable PAT (283) (1 171) (87) >100% 26 Appendix

28 Appendix: P&L 2/2 Turkey SEE & other TL m FY14 FY13 yoy% 4Q14 qoq% NII % % Net fees % % Core Income % % Trading & other income (67) 102 n/a 4 n/a Income % % Operating Expenses (2 229) (2 172) +3% (596) +12% Pre-Provision Income % % Provisions (994) (844) +18% (354) +53% Operating Profit % % Taxes (227) (258) -12% (36) -54% Minorities (3) (1) +87% (0) -54% Attributable PAT % % m FY14 FY13 yoy% 4Q14 qoq% NII % 82 5% Net fees % 24 2% Core Income % 106 4% Trading & other income % % Income % % Operating Expenses % % Pre-provision income % 45 13% Provisions % % Operating Profit % 6-63% Other impairment % % Taxes % -2-57% Minority % % Attributable PAT % 0-98% 27 Appendix

29 Appendix: Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Group Summary Balance Sheet Turkey m FY14 FY13 yoy% 3Q14 qoq% Cash & Reserves % % Interbank placements % % Securities % % Loans (Gross) % % Provisions (10 574) (8 851) +20% % Goodwill & intangibles % % Tangible assets % % Other assets % % Total assets % % TL m FY14 FY13 yoy% 3Q14 qoq% Cash & Reserves % % Interbank placements % % Securities % % Loans (net) % % Goodwill and intangibles % 239 1% Tangible assets >100% % Other assets % % Total assets % % Interbank liabilities % % Due to customers % % Debt securities % % Other liabilities % % Hybrids % 81 +1% Minorities % % Equity % % Total liabilities and equity % % Interbank liabilities % % Due to customers % % Debt securities % % Other liabilities % % Minorities % 170 0% Equity % % Total liabilities and equity % % 28 Appendix

30 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 Q4.08 Q2.09 Q4.09 Q2.10 Q4.10 Q2.11 Q4.11 Q2.12 Q4.12 Q2.13 Q4.13 Q2.14 Q4.14 Aug-07 Apr-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Macroeconomic conditions showed a further improvement in Q4:2014 although the recovery lost steam GDP growth and economic sentiment indicator Unemployment rate and employment growth % qoq in 4Q % GDP, q-o-q (s.a., left axis) ESI NBG weights (right axis) GDP, y-o-y (s.a., left axis) Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) Current account balance (% GDP) Goods exports & tourism revenue (yoy) % GDP % Greece Euro area Goods exports excl. oil & ships (y-o-y, 12m ma) Tourism revenue, gross (y-o-y, 12m ma) 29 Appendix

31 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aug-07 Apr-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Higher uncertainty has begun to take a toll on financial market conditions and fiscal performance Greece State budget primary balance (% GDP) Retail sales & capacity utilization % of GDP* Retail sales volume, y-o-y, 3m mov.avg (left axis) Capacity utilization (right axis) Greek & Portuguese 10y GB spread over bund Yield curves % m 3y 5y 10y 15y Greece: 10y Government bond spread over bund Portugal: 10y Government bond spread over bund September 11th, 2014 December 12th, 2014 March 11th, 2015 Source: IMF, Bank of Greece, Ministry of Finance 30 Appendix

32 Contact details Paula Hadjisotiriou Deputy CEO Greg Papagrigoris Co-Head of IR Paul Mylonas Deputy CEO Anthony Kouleimanis Co-Head of IR This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.