Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015)

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1 Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments (April 2015)

2 Development of the industrial sector in 2014 After two years of recession, industrial production returned to growth in The moderate growth in the second half of the year was influenced by the high base rate from the second half of 2013, when the Czech industry underwent a more distinct revival. For 2014 as a whole, Czech industrial output increased year on year by 4.9 % (after a decline of 0.8 % in 2012 and 0.1 % in 2013) and, within this framework, production in the manufacturing industry increased by 6.4 %. The main feature in most manufacturing sectors was stabilisation, while in the mining and quarrying sector and the production and distribution of electricity, gas and heat, production continued to fall (by 2.8 %, and 2,4 % in 2014 respectively). The results achieved were a decisive factor in the growth of the domestic economy as a whole, as gross value added increased significantly (by 2.9 %), particularly in manufacturing (by 6.9 %), as compared to the overall performance (by 2.0 %). Industrial production in the Czech Republic, Germany and Eurozone including the trends (seasonally adjusted data, year-on-year changes in %) Source: Czech Statistical Office, Eurostat, graph MIT 1

3 The main driving force for industrial growth remained the production of motor vehicles, which its share represented over a quarter (26.1 %) of total industrial revenues, with dynamic year on year growth (by 13 %). Production rose in twenty sectors of the manufacturing industry in 2014 (representing 90.1 % of the total). Apart from the production of motor vehicles, higher growth was recorded in the production of computers, electronic and optical products (18.1 %), coke and refined petroleum products (11.8 %), manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (9.6 %) and, after a number of years, the manufacture of furniture (7.9 %). Index of industrial production (annual changes in %) ,3 10,6 8,6 5 3,9 5,9 4,9 0-1,8-0,8-0, , Source: Czech Statistical Office, graph MIT Manufacture of motor vehicles rose by 10,7 % in 2014 (according to the Automotive Industry Association). Production of passenger and small commercial vehicles, which make up 98 % of vehicle production, rose by 10.5 %. From the domestic car manufacturers, production in Škoda Auto rose by 15 % (with a share of 59 % of total passenger car production), in TPCA by 9.7 % (with a share of 16 %) and in Hyundai by 1.3 % (with a 25 % share). When broken down by main industrial groupings, trends in production corresponded to the development of expenditure on gross domestic product, where production of capital goods rose the most in 2014, by 8.5 %, followed by production of durable consumer goods, with an increase of 6.2 % and production of intermediate goods, with an increase of 5.8 %. Production also rose in non-durable consumer goods by 1.8 %, while energy production fell by 2.3 %. 2

4 1Q/12 2Q/12 3Q/12 4Q/12 1Q/13 2Q/13 3Q/13 4Q/13 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 Growth in production in 2014 was stimulated by a large increase in new industrial orders, averaging 12.1 % (compared to 3.8 % in 2013) of which foreign orders increased by 12.9 % (4.8 % in 2013) and domestic orders increased by 10.5 % (1.8 % in 2013). Over the course of the year, the pace of the growth in foreign orders gradually showed decline during the individual quarters, influenced by a cool-down in production growth in the Eurozone and in our most important trading partner, Germany. In contrast, domestic orders rose in the second half of the year, following on from an increase in household consumption and demand from businesses. Industrial production, employement and new orders, including trends (y-o-y changes in %) Development of industrial production Employement New orders Source: Czech Statistical Office, graph MIT Breaking down production by the technological complexity of production, increased sales were recorded across all sectors, the highest increase being in the HIGH-TECH sector at 15.0 % (where its share on manufacturing industry revenues increased by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4 %). The manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products occupies an important position in this sector. In the decisive MEDIUM HIGH-TECH sector, sales increased by 14.2 % (with the share of the sector rising by 1 percentage point to 50.3 %), which significantly reflected the growth in production of motor vehicles. Sales rose in the other two sectors, but their share decreased. In the MEDIUM LOW-TECH sector the increase was 9.1 % 3

5 (with share on manufacturing fell down by 0.6 percentage points to 25.0 %) and in the LOW-TECH sector 15.1 % (with a reduction of 0.7 points in share to 14.4 %). Development of manufacturing industry by technical demands of production (organization with 50 or and more employees, y-o-y changes in %, difference in pct. points) Sales Share in Share in CZ-NACE from sales of sales of Difference Industrial activity manufacturing in year 2013 manufacturing in year Manufacturing industry total 11,9 100,0 100,0 0,0 HIGH-TECH 15,0 10,1 10,4 0,3 MEDIUM HIGH-TECH 14,2 49,2 50,3 1,0 MEDIUM LOW-TECH 9,1 25,6 25,0-0,6 LOW-TECH 6,9 15,1 14,4-0,7 Source: Czech Statistical Office, table by the Ministry of Industry and Trade Growing sales in industry (by 10 %) coupled with lower employment growth (the average number of employees recorded increased by 1.8 %) were reflected in increased labour productivity (by 8 %), which therefore outpaced the growth in real wages (by 2.1 %). This resulted in a decline in nominal unit costs (by 5.1 %), and real unit costs (by 4.3 %). The average monthly gross nominal wage of employees in industry rose by 2.5 % year on year in 2014 and amounted to CZK 27,608. Expected industrial development in 2015 The results achieved by industry in 2014 became one of the most important growth factors for the domestic economy. The positive results were influenced not only by the revival of the economies of Western European countries, which led to a growth in foreign orders, but also by increased consumption by Czech households, which was reflected in a growth in domestic orders. Last year s performance by Czech industry has established strong foundations for 2015, which is why we are expecting year on year growth to continue at around the same level as in These positive expectations are supported by preliminary indicators for January and February, which show strong growth. Consumer and business sentiments and investor confidence also improved in our most important trading partner, Germany, at the beginning of 2015, stemming from low energy and oil prices and the weak euro exchange rate against the dollar. This should also be positively reflected in domestic industrial results. 4

6 Development of foreign trade in 2014 In 2014 the foreign trade of the Czech Republic (according to preliminary data from cross-border statistics) again broke the records achieved in the previous year. Turnover in 2014 rose to CZK 6,790.4 billion (a year on year increase of CZK billion), the trade balance improved its previous historic surplus, growing to CZK billion (CZK 91.3 billion more year on year). Exports achieved excellent results, with a total of CZK 3,616.5 billion and a year on year increase of 13.9 %, which exceeded import volumes of CZK 3,174.0 billion and an increase of 12.4 %. Exports last year benefited in particular from healthy European car markets, as well as from demand for products from a range of other areas of manufacturing. The weak crown also had a positive impact on foreign trade, strengthening the competitiveness of domestic products. Its impact on imports was cushioned by falling prices of energy commodities, but despite this solid domestic demand and the exchange rate of the crown pushed these in an upward direction. A similar trend can also be seen in the foreign trade figures calculated on the basis of the national concept (which follows actual trade with goods between Czech and foreign companies, i.e. the transfer of ownership between residents and non-residents). In 2014 exports rose to CZK 3,151.0 billion, i.e. by 13.1 % year on year and imports to CZK 2,995.8 billion, i.e. by 11.8 %. The trade surplus based on the national concept increased to CZK billion, which is over CZK 48.7 billion more year on year. Foreign Trade of the years (current prices) Source: Czech Statistical Office, March 2015, graph MIT, Department for Economic Analyse Foreign trade figures were directly related to changes in the exchange rate during the course of The average rate for the Czech crown over 2014 as a whole rose to CZK/EUR, which meant it weakened against the euro by 6.0 % year on year. The CNB s commitment to maintain the crown s exchange rate against the euro near the level of 27 crowns/euro continued to place pressure on the crown. The average 5

7 exchange rate of CZK/USD meant that the domestic currency also fell by 6.0 % against the American dollar. Due to the weakening of the crown s exchange rate, prices of exports and imports rose. Without the effect of the exchange rate, foreign trade prices would be much lower. In terms of exports, the weak crown helped to improve the competitiveness of Czech exporters, while in terms of imports, it limited deflationary pressures stemming from a global decline in the prices of certain commodities, primarily mineral fuels and energy. Import prices therefore rose at a slower rate, on average by 1.9 % for 2014 as a whole (a decline of 0.2 % compared to 2013), while export prices increased by 3.5 % year on year (by 1.2 % compared to 2013). In the most important categories of exports, prices of semi-finished products rose by 5.2 %, miscellaneous manufactured articles by 4.4 % and prices of machinery and transport equipment by 3.7 %. In contrast, prices of mineral fuels fell by 5.0 % and food prices by 0.2 %. The highest year on year increases in import prices for the most important categories were recorded for food prices at 4.4 %, machinery and transport equipment rose by 3.5 %, semi-finished products by 3.2 % and prices of miscellaneous manufactured articles by 2.5 %. However, the rate of growth of import prices was curbed by falling prices for mineral fuels, which declined by 5.6 % year on year, where the current price of oils was 7.8 % lower and prices for other raw materials lower by 3.3 %. The faster year on year growth for export prices compared to prices of imports was reflected in terms of trade, which remained positive at a total % for 2014 as a whole (in 2013 this was %). Prices therefore contributed to the excellent foreign trade figures and, subsequently to the overall performance of the Czech economy. Import and Export Prices, Terms of Trade (%) Source: Czech Statistical Office, March 2015, graph MIT, Department for Economic Analyse 6

8 Most Czech imports and exports in 2014 were traditionally with the EU 28, which accounted for 82.1 % of total domestic exports and 66.3 % of imports. Exports to this grouping rose by 15.5 % year on year and imports by 14.3 %. Total turnover, compared to the same period of the previous year, rose by CZK billion to CZK 5,074.5 billion and the trade balance with the EU 28 was active in our favour, totalling CZK billion, which is CZK billion more than in These figures again confirm the strong dependence of the Czech Republic on the European Union countries and their economic situation therefore strongly impacts on our national economic performance. Over the long term, the most important partners for the Czech Republic s foreign trade have been our neighbours, which are also Member States of the European Union. As is traditional, Germany has maintained its position as our strongest trading partner and it is our most important import and export destination in the region. Exports here strengthened by 16.6 % and our western neighbour increased its share of total exports to 32.0 % (by 0.7 p.p.). Its share of total imports, which grew year on year by 14.5 %, was 26.1 % (a year on year increase of 0.5 p.p.). Because we exported more to Germany than we imported, our trade balance registered a surplus of CZK billion in our favour, which is a year on year increase of CZK 59.6 billion. Heightened political tensions in Eastern Europe resulted in a reduced volume of Czech exports to the Commonwealth of Independent States (by 8.9 % year on year, to CZK billion), mainly because of the dramatic decline in exports to Ukraine. The armed conflict on its territory has led to deep economic and social problems for this country, which, as far as the Czech Republic is concerned, has resulted in a 36.5 % decline in our exports to Ukraine, year on year. Ukraine s share of total Czech exports fell by 0.4 p.p. to 0.6 %. In our trading relations with Russia, the effect of anti-russian and Russian sanctions on our economy has not yet been fully felt. Although exports for the Russian Federation decreased year on year by 2.7 % to CZK billion and its share of our total exports fell by 0.6 p.p. to 3.1 %, exports to this territory have tended to be extremely volatile in individual years (e.g. in 2013 there was a decline of 1.6 %). Given the fact that imports from Russia were substantially lower (15.0 % year on year), forced down by declining global prices of mineral fuels and the lower volume of imported gas, the trade deficit also decreased considerably, by CZK 19.6 billion, to CZK 16.3 billion. The Czech Republic therefore recorded its largest trade surplus with Germany, the second highest surplus derived from trade with Slovakia, which rose year on year by CZK 14.5 billion to CZK billion. The five countries with which the Czech Republic had the highest trade surpluses in 2014 also included the United Kingdom (CZK billion), France (CZK 80.3 billion) and Austria (CZK 57.8 billion).the Czech Republic typically registers trade deficits in its trade with Asian countries. The highest deficit resulted from foreign trade with China, amounting to CZK billion, which widened by CZK 7

9 51.3 billion year on year. The second highest deficit was from trade with South Korea (CZK 51.9 billion), followed by Azerbaijan (CZK 36.7 billion), Japan (CZK 30.4 billion) and Poland (CZK 29.1 billion). Foreign trade by regions in 2014 TURNOVER Annual EXPORT Annual IMPORT Annual BALANCE 2014 change 2014 change 2014 change Indicator CZK mil. Share (%) in % CZK mil. Share (%) in % CZK mil. Share (%) in % CZK mil. CZK mil. Total ,0 13, ,0 13, ,0 12, Developed market economies ,9 14, ,5 15, ,3 13, EU countries ,7 15, ,1 15, ,3 14, EFTA countries ,8-3, ,0 10, ,5-20, Other developed market countries ,4 12, ,3 10, ,5 14, Developed countries ,7 14, ,4 21, ,3 9, Transition economies ,5 10, ,5 13, ,5 8, Commonwealth Independent States ,5-5, ,4-8, ,7-2, Other* ,1 18, ,2 9, ,7 19, Unspecified ,3 7, ,1-19, ,5 11, OECD countries ,9 14, ,2 15, ,7 13, *) China, North Korea, Cuba, Laos, Mongolia, Vietnam Source: Czech Statistical Office, table by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, March 2015 Country CZK mil. Foreign trade by selected countries in 2014 Turnover Export Import Balance Annual change Annual change Annual change Share (%) CZK mil. Share (%) CZK mil. CZK mil. in % CZK mil. in % CZK mil. in % Germany ,7 29, ,6 32, ,5 26, Slovakia ,6 6, ,8 8, ,6 5, Poland ,4 6, ,2 6, ,4 7, China ,8 5, ,7 1, ,5 11, France ,9 4, ,0 5, ,1 3, Italy ,4 3, ,5 3, ,2 4, Austria ,7 3, ,9 4, ,8 3, United Kingdom ,6 3, ,6 5, ,4 2, Russian Federation ,7 3, ,7 3, ,0 4, Netherlands ,7 3, ,3 2, ,9 3, Hungary ,9 2, ,5 2, ,1 2, USA ,6 2, ,3 2, ,6 2, Belgium ,9 2, ,7 2, ,6 1, Spain ,7 2, ,5 2, ,2 1, Switzerland ,3 1, ,6 1, ,8 1, Share (%) CZK mil. Annual change Source: Czech Statistical Office, table by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, March 2015 In terms of the commodity structure, the positive developments in foreign trade were primarily due to machinery and transport equipment, which were, just as in previous years, the main driving force behind exports. Their dominant share of the export market increased year on year by 1.1 p.p. to 55.0 %. They made up 43.3 % of total imports, i.e. 2.3 p.p. more year on year. Exports of this commodity group increased by 16.2 % year on year and imports by 18.8 %. The trade balance ended with a surplus of CZK billion, which is an increase of CZK 60.1 billion. The highest share (34.3 % with a growth of 1.5 p.p.) in the group of machinery and transport equipment is held by road vehicles, where exports grew by 21.3 % year on year, and as a result their share of total exports strengthened by 1.2 p.p. to 18.9 %. 8

10 Commodity structure of foreign trade in 2014 EXPORT Annual IMPORT Annual BALANCE 2014 change 2014 change Indicator CZK mil. Share (%) in % CZK mil. Share (%) in % CZK mil. CZK mil. Total ,0 13, ,0 12, of which: 0 Food and live animals ,6 12, ,9 7, Beverages and tobacco ,7 19, ,6-1, Crude materials ,4 4, ,5 0, Mineral fuels, lubricants ,7 2, ,5-7, Animal and vegetable oils ,3 12, ,3 16, Chemicals ,6 18, ,6 14, Manufactured goods by material ,5 8, ,6 10, Machinery and transport equipment ,0 16, ,3 18, Manufactured articles ,8 14, ,4 15, Commodities not classified ,2 9, ,3-13, Source: Czech Statistical Office, table by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, March 2015 Development of foreign trade in 2015 The current values of preliminary indicators, the latest developments in the economic condition of our main trading partners, especially predictions of economic growth in Germany, and the low prices of energy commodities, lead us to assume that the favourable path followed by Czech foreign trade will continue during Any escalation of the tension between Ukraine and Russia and the negative impact of deflationary pressures, which are currently appearing in the EU Member States, will pose potential risks for its further progress. 9

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