US Ethane and Ethylene Exports & Markets Report

Transcription

1 US Ethane and Ethylene Exports & Markets Report Introduction With the development of shale gas and oil the U.S. production landscape has experienced a dramatic shift over the last 5 years. There has been an increase in crude oil production of over 2 million barrels per day which fundamentally changed the global energy market, creating a supply shock that is affecting the petrochemical industry around the world. Mcf/d = Thousands of cubic feet per day $/BBl = USD per barrel $/MMBTU = USD$ per million British Thermal Units MBPD = Thousand barrels a day Million BBl/d= Million barrels a day Graph 1: US Oil Production Million BBl/d As shown in Graph 2 there has been an even greater growth in natural gas, ethane, and natural gas liquids (NGL) production. This shift in the production profile will cause considerable excess supply in the ethane and NGL markets. Even with an increase in exports, there remains a considerable excess of ethane production forecast for the U.S. This is driving demand for more processing and export infrastructure within the U.S. to enable monetization of the excess ethane and NGL s. Graph 2: US Shale Gas Production ,, Total Natural Gas Production (Mcf/d) 45,, 4,, 35,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, Utica Permian Niobrara Marcellus Haynesville Eagle Ford Bakken Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 1

2 Graph 3: Ethane Supply Balance in the US Thousand BBl/d 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Current capacity Conversions & Expansions New Builds New Builds after 22 Ethane Production Capacity Forecast Gap to be filled by exports and ethane rejection The production of ethylene is a vital part of the global chemicals and plastics value chain and totals 145 million tons per year. The pricing between the alternative steam cracker feedstocks has changed dramatically over the last 1 years. As U.S. shale gas production hit the market early in this period, cracker economics turned in favor of ethane crackers over international naphtha crackers. In turn, international petrochemical companies INEOS, BOREALIS, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES and SABIC secured US ethane supply contracts. This feedstock supply model will now be tested as the oil prices (and naphtha and LPG prices with it) have declined and reversed the feedstock economics back towards naphtha and LPG internationally. Graph 4: Oil to Gas Prices Brent oil Natural gas HH spot Brent crude $/BBL Henry Hub Spot $/MMBTU 2 2

3 Ethane and EthyIene InternationaI Market Demand The cost spreads in petrochemical feedstocks around the globe are driving the pursuit of U.S. ethane exports forward. Sunoco Logistics and Enterprise Products are the first movers in establishing US ethane export terminals. INEOS, SABIC (converting from cracking naphtha to cracking ethane), and Borealis are installing ethane receiving terminals to counteract the decline in ethane production from the North Sea. Reliance, INEOS, Borealis and SABIC will be the primary shippers out of Enterprises s Morgan s Point facility. An estimated 8% of Enterprise Products 24 MBPD Morgan s Point capacity is already under firm take or pay contracts. Reliance will be making deliveries to India s extensive system of ethane crackers and is also an equity holder in U.S. shale production allowing Reliance to be a party to the entire value chain. Prospectus There are three primary market drivers for U.S. ethane exports: I. Current ethane crackers needing additional supply due to declines in production from historical suppliers or optimization of supply pricing. II. Naphtha crackers which are being converted to ethane feedstock. III. Fuel supply to other markets, particularly the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America where short transport distances are advantageous. Estimated contracted volumes by trade route l Export Terminal l Import Terminal Houston, TX Targa Resources TBD MBPD Marcus Hook, PA Sunoco Logistics 7 MBPD Marcus Hook, USA Houston, USA Morgan s Point, USA Morgan s Point, TX Enterprise 2 MBPD Trade lane data Origin Destination MBPD n Kaarstoe Rafnes 24.5 n Kaarstoe Stenungsund 15. n Marcus Hook Rafnes 2. n Marcus Hook Stenungsund 11.5 n Marcus Hook Grangemouth 1. n Marcus Hook Uncommitted 28.5 n Morgan s Point Uncommitted 42.5 n Morgan s Point Teeside 44. n Morgan s Point Jamnagar 73.5 n Morgan s Point Uncommitted 4. Grangemouth, UK Ineos 6 Storage Capacity cbm Kaarstoe, Norway Grangemouth Rafnes, Norway Grangemouth, UK Stenungsund, Sweden Teeside, UK Teeside Teeside, UK Sabic Europe 77 Storage Capacity cbm Kaarstoe, Norway Statoil 6 MBPD Jamnagar, India Kaarstoe Rafnes, Norway Ineos 57 Storage Capacity cbm Rafnes Stenungsund Stenungsund, Sweden Borealis 52 Storage Capacity cbm U.S. major shale production areas Bakken Niobrara Utica Marcellus Permian Haynesville Houston, TX Targa Eagle Ford 3

4 Scope of the Report The report is a quantitative data based report, completed using original research conducted in 215. Key Questions the report will answer include: 1) What is the projected U.S. supply surplus for ethane, ethylene, and polyethylene by year between 215 and 22? 2) How competitive is U.S. ethane vs. international naphtha as a petrochemical feedstock for international steam crackers? 3) What are the primary, competitive international markets for U.S. exported ethane, ethylene, and polyethylene? 4) What are the projected logistics infrastructure and transportation costs to export U.S. ethane, ethylene, and polyethylene to key international markets? 5) What are the economic trade offs for international regions to import U.S. ethane vs. ethylene vs. polyethylene? Data and analysis will include: Two crude oil price scenarios $4 - $6/bbl and $6 - $8/bbl with 5 year pricing assumptions for each. Benchmark costs for modifying or upgrading an existing naphtha cracker to ethane feedstock. Benchmark costs related to converting a power production unit from oil or LPG feed to ethane. The projected total export logistics cost from origin to destination for U.S. ethane, ethylene, and polyethylene. Markets Primary Export Export Market Analysis US Supply Balance New International Production Capacity Detailed Landed Cost Projections by International Region Export Terminal Capacity New Terminal Costs Vessel Capacity New Vessel Costs Pipeline Capacity New Pipeline Costs Projects Overview Ethane Ethylene Polyethylene Available Export Infrastructure Export Costs US Ethane Production As a chemical feedstock. - Project announcements, latest developments, and investment trends. - Ethane to Ethylene. Ethane as a power and fuel source. - Project announcements, latest developments, and investment trends. - Power plants. - Commercial and residential heating. Ethane Production five year forecast. - Current ethane supply output and percentage oil production and gas production. - Current output by shale basin. - Projected output by shale basin. - Regional infrastructure limitations. Ethane rejection vs. natural gas pricing. Ethane demand by fuel market. - U.S. - International. Ethane demand by U.S. ethane crackers. - Ethane demand by international ethane crackers. Ethane demand for export vs. alternative feedstock. - Competition from naphtha cracking. - Competition from methanol-to-olefins. - Competition from coal-to-olefins. 4

5 Sample Tables Sample tables below are shown partially complete for illustration purposes only. Fully completed tables are featured in the final report. Table 1: Ethane & Ethylene Carriers Dedicated Ethane Carrier Fleet cbm Min temp C Delivery Status Charterer Trade Solvang Clipper Harald Anthony Veder Coral Parensis Evergas JS INEOS INSIGHT JS INEOS INGENUITY JS INEOS INTREPID Ocean Yield / Hartmann Navigator Gas NAVIGATOR AURORA NAVIGATOR ECLIPSE NAVIGATOR NOVA NAVIGATOR PROMINENCE Reliance Industries United Ethane Carriers Table 2: Ethane Trade Route Details And Estimated Freight Rate Trade Route Ship type Vessel Capacity (cbm) Lot size tons Days round voyage Ton/yr Est. freight rate per ton US Gulf / Far East via Panama US Gulf / NW Europe US Gulf / NW Europe US Gulf / NW Europe US EC / NW Europe US EC / NW Europe US EC / NW Europe 5

6 Methodology Our internal databases will be supplemented with primary research and fieldwork to gather quantitative data on: US ethane and ethylene production. Ethylene project plans, status and investment trends. Crude oil pricing scenarios. Export costs for ethane, ethylene and polyethylene. Modelling and forecasts of commodity flows and market requirements. About Us: Through independent market research and large-scale international petrochemical conferences, Petrochemical Update helps decision makers anticipate the petrochemicals future and formulate timely plans in the face of rapid change. As an independent division within FCBI-Energy, Petrochemical Update can draw on an unparalleled wealth of knowledge and networks across the oil, gas, petrochemicals, renewable energy and nuclear sectors. Our analysts are known for independence, fundamental research, foresight and original thinking. Our clients are oil and gas operators, petrochemical companies, utilities, contractors, traders, financial institutions, government authorities, service providers and other consultancy firms. Order your report in less than 6 seconds US Ethane and Ethylene Exports & Markets Report PubIication Date: 3th November 215 Format: Electronic Secure PDF format and the excel spreadsheets used to develop the data and forecasts in the report. Prices: SingIe-user price: Pre order Discount $499: $9,95 $9,451 Only one person has access to the report. Pre Order Discount Offer expires November 3th MuIti-user price: For a solution tailored to your company s needs, contact us for a quote. First name Last name: Company Telephone: Address: Ways to order: Scan and emaii back to: samuei@petchemupdate.com CaII SamueI Smith, Client Relationship Manager International: +44 () USA Toll-free: City Quantity Payment details: Name (as it appears on card): Card Number: Type of card: Zip/Postcode Expiry date: Security Code: Order your copy today at: 6