GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT
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1 GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT Bloomberg EMEA Summit London, 12 October 2015 Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory Board
2 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) % -7% -8% 12% 35% 12% -9% 27% 50% 30% Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1
3 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2
4 AMER NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3
5 APAC NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael 13 October Liebreich 2015 BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 4
6 EMEA NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR ($BN) Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5
7 SPAIN NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6
8 ITALY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7
9 GERMANY NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8
10 FRANCE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9
11 UK NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) '15 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Four quarter running average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10
12 SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLES PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 11
13 SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION. Competitive auctions Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 12
14 SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE EU PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION Competitive auctions. Auctions legislated but yet to be held or pilot auctions only SUBSIDY BUDGET Capped Frozen / no new support Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 13
15 PRINCIPAL STATE- AND NATIONAL-LEVEL POLICY MECHANISMS FOR RENEWABLES PROJECTS (IN FORCE OR PROPOSED) Market-based mechanisms eg, auctions, renewable energy certificate schemes, renewable portfolio standards Feed-in tariff/premiums Country switched to auction or tender programme since
16 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY 2014 ($/MWH) Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat Wind - offshore PV - thin film PV - c-si PV - c-si tracking Biomass - anaerobic digestion Biomass - gasification Biomass - incineration Municipal solid waste Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Small hydro Large hydro Landfill gas Geothermal - flash plant Natural gas CCGT Coal fired CHP Nuclear PV projects as low as $58/MWh Onshore wind as low as $37/MWh central H central Fossil technologies: US China Europe Australia Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15
17 THE ROAD TO PARIS Image: UNFCCC 16
18 G7 JUNE 2015 SCHLOSS ELMAU Emissions must be cut 40-70% by mid-century and phased out entirely by 2100 Picture: Wikimedia 17
19 LAUDATO SI DEMAND SIDE There is an urgent need to develop sources of renewable energy. Pope Francis Picture: Wikimedia 18
20 THE ECONOMIST COVER, SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE DECEMBER 2014 Source: The Economist 19
21 WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, ($2015 / BARREL) or? Note: The Green line represents the WTI Spot price, and has been adjusted for inflation and is represented here in real 2015 US$ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, World Bank 20
22 OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, (US$/MMBTU) NBP (UK) Henry Hub (US) BAFA (Germany border price for Russian gas) North East Asia LNG Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into the Northeast Asia market. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ICAP, Platts 21
23 AN AGE OF ENERGY PLENTY AGE OF COMPETITION 22
24 US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, BCFD Marcellus Marcellus Haynesville Haynesville Eagle Ford Fayetteville Eagle Ford Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Barnett Bakken Woodford AntrimBakken UticaAntrim Rest of US 'shale' Utica Gas rigs online Other Shale Oil rigs online Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA 23
25 AVERAGE LATERAL LENGTH (FEET) 7,000 6,000 5, % 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 24
26 DRILLING COST/LATERAL LENGTH (INCLUDES VERTICAL) ($/FOOT) 1,400 1,200 1,000-71% Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 25
27 COMPLETION COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT) 1,400 1,200-42% 1, Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 26
28 WELL COST/LATERAL LENGTH ($/FOOT) 2,500 2,000-57% 1,500 1, Range Resources, 28 July 2015, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 27
29 NORTHEAST GAS PRODUCTION PER RIG (MCFD) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,
30 MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS Canada UK Norway Poland Mexico USA Algeria Libya China Brazil Australia 200 trillion cubic feet Argentina South Africa Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, April
31 Operational, under construction or post-fid Pre-FID LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA) Other North America Russia East Africa West Africa Australia Other North America Russia West Africa North Africa Indonesia Malaysia Australia Qatar Demand Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 30
32 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 31
33 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32
34 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 33
35 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 34
36 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35
37 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 36
38 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37
39 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 38
40 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 39
41 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 40
42 GLOBAL POWER DEMAND GROWTH, DEMAND UNDER NEO WILL BE 15% LOWER IN 2040 THAN IEA NEW POLICIES SCENARIO Negative Low Medium High Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 41
43 ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE (2014 US$/TONNE) ARA Newcastle Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation according to YoY CPI Index from UK Office of National Statistics Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ONS 42
44 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD S&P 500 Oil & Gas NEX 100 Stowe Global Coal 50 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Note: Values as of 08 September 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43
45 COAL BANKRUPTCIES Investment Pte Image: various company sources 44
46 COAL The coal business in the United States has kind of died, so we re out of the coal business now. Bill Koch Picture: Forbes 45
47 DEVELOPING WORLD ENERGY The greatest crisis society confronts is not a future environmental crisis predicted by computer models but a human crisis today that is fully within our power to solve... with coal. Energy Access For All With Green Coal campaign Picture: Peabody Energy 46
48 AFRICAN PROVERB The gazelle does not have to outrun the cheetah It has to outrun the slowest gazelle Clean energy Coal Oil Sands Oil Gas Image: Denis Donohue / Shutterstock 47
49 US LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Natural gas Coal Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 48
50 EUROPE LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Natural gas Coal Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 49
51 CHINA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 150 Onshore wind 100 Utility-scale PV 50 Natural gas Coal Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 50
52 INDIA LCOE ($/MWH NOMINAL) 150 Onshore wind 100 Utility-scale PV 50 Natural gas Coal Note: Capacity factors onshore wind: 25-35%; solar PV: 10-15% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance: 51
53 TOTAL INVESTMENTS PER TECHNOLOGY, (US$ REAL) RENEWABLES TAKE 65% OF THE $12.2 TRILLION POWER INVESTMENT TO 2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10/13/
54 RENEWABLES TO DOMINATE POWER SUPPLY GROWTH Renewables are poised to seize the crucial top spot in global power supply growth Affordable renewables are set to dominate the emerging power systems of the world Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA Picture: Mikhail Evstafiev, Wikimedia 53
55 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR), 2014 (%) US 4% France 3% UK 9% Germany 16% Japan 5% Mexico 3% China 5% 0 1-5% 6-10% 11-25% 26-50% 50+% Brazil 3% ME + Africa 0% India 3% Australia 8% Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from BNEF s New Energy Outlook 2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 54
56 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION- INTERMITTENT ENERGY (WIND & SOLAR), 2040 (%) US 24% France 30% UK 63% Germany 77% Japan 20% Mexico 32% China 37% 0 1-5% 6-10% 11-25% 26-50% 50+% Brazil 34% ME + Africa 26% India 32% Australia 52% Note: This only shows the combination of wind and solar energy generation. All numbers come from BNEF s New Energy Outlook 2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 55
57 ENERGY SERVICE BATTLEFIELD Nest acquisition Smart thermostats, home Bundled??? automation electricity, entertainment and home automation IHD and smart thermostat program HomeKit Load disaggregation BEMS for DR and energy efficiency Integrated smart homes Solar PV and energy monitoring Home automation Digital Life connected home service Smart thermostats and load disaggregation HIVE home heating Home Load controls Bundled disaggregation automation telecoms and energy Behavioural engagement Home automation Smart thermostats and behavioural DR HEM tools 1m connected home customers Smart thermostats to reduce churn Residential Bundled HEM telecoms, tools energy and Smart DRhome energy. Residential storage hubs energy storage. Heating controls Smart lighting / Smart Connected home home home automation platform / IoT (AT&T) Smart thermostats Registered energy Smart supplier home partnerships/investment Bundled Virtual mobile telecoms, operator electricity Smart and 80k gas thermostats customers Bundled insurance, telecoms and energy Bundled electricity telecoms services Home energy management Energy supply and services Bundled telecoms, electricity supply beginning in 2016 DR and retail services HEMS platform 56
58 E.ON SPLIT 57
59 ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE WORLDWIDE, billion ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN USE WORLDWIDE, million (to scale) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 58
60 Crystalline Si PV Module price (USD/W) EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINE SI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS m=26.3% ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW) Note: Values from are based on BNEF s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here: Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 59
61 Crystalline Si PV Module price (USD/W) EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS & CRYSTYALLINE SI PV MODULES: HISTORICAL COST REDUCTIONS Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh) ,000 10, , m=26.3% 10 1 Lithium-ion battery pack price (USD/Wh) EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 60% SINCE 2010 m=15.5% ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW) Note: Values from are based on BNEF s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here: Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 60
62 BEIJING, CHINA Photo: Reuters/NASA 61
63 DELHI, INDIA Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons 62
64 LOS ANGELES, USA Photo: UCLA 63
65 PARIS, FRANCE Photo: D NNI$/Creative Commons 64
66 LONDON, UK Photo: HHRCA 65
67 VW DIESELGATE Source: Flickriver 66
68 GAP BETWEEN EUROPEAN TEST AND REAL WORLD EMISSIONS, VARIOUS VEHICLES, (%) Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 67
69 URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra 68
70 CHANGING UK ELECTRICITY MIX POWER GENERATED BY SOURCE, (TWH) SHARE OF GENERATION, 2015 YTD (%) % 300 Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 23.8% 20.1% 26.2% 27.5% 0.5%
71 UK HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY BILL 2014 ( ) Minus 30 rebates + >>> Other, 45 Renewables Obligation, % Energy and climate 5% change policies Supplier costs and margins Energy and climate change policies Network costs Supplier costs and margins Wholesale energy costs Network costs Small-scale Feed-in- Tariffs, 9 Wholesale energy costs Source: UK DECC Annual domestic energy bills 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Michael Liebreich 2014 BNEF EMEA Summit, London, 12 October 70 Note: Real 2014 Sterling.
72 UK LCOE BY TECHNOLOTY H ($/MWH) PV - c-si (U) Coal Natural gas CCGT 13% 17% 19% 5% 36% 44% Wind - onshore 27% Note: Natural gas CCGT and coal includes a carbon cost of $26/tonne Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 71
73 UK ENERGY POLICY Image: Wikimedia Commons 72
74 IN SUMMARY The old is dying and the new struggles to be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. Antonio Gramsci Co-Founder & Leader, Italian Communist Party Picture: Wikimedia Commons 73
75 Thanks! MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Michael Liebreich Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system
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