Carlos Fernández Alvarez. Senior Coal Analyst

Transcription

1 Carlos Fernández Alvarez. Senior Coal Analyst

2 AGENDA BACKGROUND What is coal, how is coal mined, where is coal used for COAL ATTRIBUTES Coal is cheap, abundant and diversified SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS China leads the way COAL TRADE Well working, secure market A PRACTICAL CASE Blending coal CLEANING COAL Clean coal technologies

3 1 st Quarter BACKGROUND What is coal How is coal mined What is coal used for

4 What is coal?

5 How is coal mined?

6 What is coal used for? PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA UNITED STATES INDIA OECD EUROPE Electricity and heat gen Industry(Iron and steel) Industry(Others) Residential Others

7 2 st Quarter COAL ATTRIBUTES Coal is abundant Coal is cheap Coal is diversified

8 Coal is abundant years Total remaining recoverable resources Proven reserves Cumulative production to date 142 years 233 years 178 years 61 years 54 years Coal Natural gas Oil

9 Coal is low cost

10 Coal is cheap Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep $/Mbtu HH GB Brent PRB ARA

11 Coal is diversified

12 3 rd Quarter SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS

13 Long term dominance of non-oecd countries Mtce Coal demand. Historical trends and projections OECD non-oecd OECD projections non-oecd projections

14 Projection of metallurgical coal demand for non- OECD economies Mtce * China India Eastern Europe/Eurasia Other developing Asia Other non-oecd

15 OECD countries are not reducing coal use COAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS

16 Projection of thermal coal and lignite supply Mtce * OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania China Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Other developing Asia Others

17 Projection of metallurgical coal supply Mtce * OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania China Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Other developing Asia Others

18 4 th Quarter COAL TRADE

19 Coal trade: working well, no supply security issues Global thermal seaborne trade 887 Mt (2012)

20 Paper trade still is in the Atlantic COAL DERIVATIVES TRADE Mt API2 API4 Other

21 Few potential game changers USD/t Short term demand Supply cost curve with PRB Supply cost curve w/o PRB Mt

22 Local pollution: public enemy number one

23 South China: the great arbitrager Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Beijing Qinhuangdao Hebei Ningxia Qinghai Henan Sichuan Hubei Anhui Shanghai Hunan 3-Xi, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang Yun-Gui Jing-Jin-Ji Northeast East China Chuan-Yu-Qing-Zang Central South Imports Yunnan Chinese coal transport Guizhou Guangxi Hainan

24 5 th Quarter A PRACTICAL CASE Blending coal

25 Case 1. Thermal coal We need 1 mt coal for our power plant, which only accepts coal of 6000 kcal/kg Origin Calorific value (kcal/kg) FOB price ($/t) Freight ($/t) A Newcastle B Colombia C Indonesia We have been offered 1mt of coal A, 1 mt of coal B and tonnes of coal C. How much A B C coal you would buy?

26 Case 2. Coking coal We need 1 mt coal for our blast furnace, which only accepts coal of 20 % VM and ash < 10 % Origin VM (%) Ash (%) FOB price ($/t) Freight ($/t) A Queensland B Baltimore C Mozambique We have been offered 1mt of coal A, 1 mt of coal B and 1 mt of coal C. How much A B C coal you would buy?

27 6 th Quarter CLEANING COAL World class coal mining Low emissions Carbon Capture and Storage

28 The full chain of coal power generation

29 Mission: clean-up coal power sector

30 A good reclamation is essential

31 The challenge of advanced USC Boiler tube/piping C 700 C/ 30-35MPa C Steam turbine rotor/shaft Boiler Steam turbine ~ Generator - Nickel-based super-alloys - Ferrite/Austenitic alloys requires the development of nickel-based super-alloys that will enable plant components to withstand temperatures of 700ºC and beyond.

32 Local pollution: we know how to do it

33 CCS on efficient plants

34 Questions and comments are welcome and should be addressed to: