ETBE - back in fashion? Trends and opportunities in the ETBE & Ethanol markets

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1 ETBE - back in fashion? Trends and opportunities in the ETBE & Ethanol markets Presentation to World Biofuels Markets, Amsterdam Geraldine Gilmartin 16 th March, 21

2 Outline ETBE: Global markets overview Focus on Europe Focus on Japan Ethanol: Global markets overview Emerging trends Review

3 Where is ETBE produced? ETBE production capacity one year ago EU production increases in 26/7 27 Brazil start-up (Oct) 28 still EU and Brazil 1H9 still EU and Brazil..2H9 US and Japan mt/yr 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global ETBE nameplate capacity: Jan 29

4 ETBE production capacity - today What s changed? Italy + capacity (Mar and Nov) Romania (Sep) Brazil (mid-year) US (Oct) Japan (Nov) mt/yr 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global ETBE nameplate capacity: 21

5 Where is ETBE consumed? Germany: ethanol and ETBE mt 9,. Germany: Ethanol Consumption 8,. 7,. 6,. 5,. 4,. 3,. 2,. 1,.. Source: BAFA (Jan- Nov) Strong growth in consumption..

6 But growth is in direct blending, not ETBE cu m Germany: Bioethanol Consumption ETBE Ethanol Source BAFA

7 Italy: ETBE-only fivefold capacity increase in ETBE 21 small growth, despite higher targets (3.5%) No direct blending until 211 (targets of 4%) Declining gasoline market Large diesel (and biodiesel) TAEE..?, mt Italy: Gasoline consumption Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Unione Petrolifera

8 Spain: ETBE-only (for now) 29 targets met with ETBE Domestic output at capacity Higher targets (5.83%) More imports Slow start to direct blending Declining gasoline but growing bio content Large diesel sector mt 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: CORES Spain: Petrol+ biofuel consumption 29 gasoline 28 gasoline 29 % biofuel 28 % biofuel Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.%

9 UK: ethanol-only A better year for ethanol? RFA data for April 29-October 29 UK - ethanol by country of origin Sweden.2 m l - % Pakistan.4 m l % UK 23 m l 17% 1,2 1, 8 6 UK: Bioethanol and Biodiesel Consumption mln litres Ethanol Biodiesel Brazil 19 m l 77% Unknown 8 m l 6% Source: UK HM Customs Increases in mandate, demand, and domestic ethanol output

10 Where is ETBE consumed? Japan s story ETBE vs ethanol PAJ commitments: 2, cu m ETBE FY9 And 84, cu m FY 21 Nov 9 first domestic ETBE production (Nippon Oil) Dec 9 first US imports Q111 second domestic plant cu m Japan: ETBE imports Required

11 Big in Japan 84, cu m ETBE Circa 38-4, cu m ethanol Less than 1% of gasoline market Max blend rate 3% (6% ETBE) Small domestic ethanol production Net importer for some time E1? cu m 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, Source: PAJ Japan: Fuel Consumption Gasoline Diesel

12 Who is supplying Japan? Japanese ETBE Imports ' cu m Netherlands Brazil USA Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Jan 1

13 ETBE - price trends Gasoline MTBE ETBE = volatility! $/mt 5 ETBE: Premium to MTBE Aug-6 Mar-7 Oct-7 May-8 Dec-8 Jul-9 Feb-1 $/mt 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ETBE/MTBE spot prices, FOB ARA ETBE MTBE

14 Key EU ethanol markets Key European Fuel Ethanol Markets - mln litres 21 Production Consumption cu m 31, 26, 21, E85 Sales in Sweden 1 16, , 25 6, France Germany Spain Sweden UK 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source:SPI Increases in demand; imports required; pressure on discretionary markets

15 Domestic production margins healthy; increases in EU capacity EUR/mt European Grain and Ethanol Prices FOB T2 Ethanol LIFFE Feed Wheat Contract Oct 7 Apr 8 Oct 8 Apr 9 Oct 9 GBP/mt /cu m EU Ethanol T1 vs T2 spot prices (FOB Rdam) T2 T1 plus 192/cu m duty T1 plus 12/cu m duty 1/1/28 1/7/28 1/1/29 1/7/29 1/1/21 T2 competitive versus T1 (denat); import pressures

16 Regional Surplus/Deficit.. and Brazil Net Exports Regional Fuel Ethanol Surplus/Deficit Brazil Fuel Ethanol Exports 2 bln litres , mln litres 1 3, 2, -1 1, -2 Europe N America C & S America Africa Asia & Middle East

17 New trends in global ethanol trade Anydrous En specs FOB Santos USD/cu m EN Spec Prices at Origin & Destination $/cu m $/cu m 85 8 Margin (RHS) FOB Rdam T1 FOB Santos Nov 8 Feb 9 May 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 Feb the closure of the Brazilian arb..

18 And new opportunities.. Comparative Anhydrous Prices $/gal (FOB Santos vs FOB NYH) FOB Santos FOB NYH Dec 8 Feb 9 Apr 9 Jun 9 Aug 9 Oct 9 Dec 9 Feb $/cu m US - EU Arbitrage Margin US Price plus Premium & Freight EU Grade T1 FOB Rdam $/cu m Nov 8 Feb 9 May 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 Feb the opening of the US arb..

19 Review of trends ETBE EU captive market (still) Brazil to EU and Japan US to Japan long-term US to EU short-term, and inter-company More imports into Europe? Some conversion of ETBE to MTBE in Europe? Ethanol Brazil reduced export capability US importer to balanced to exporter Exporting to Europe And Brazil..? And EU to US ethanol shipments!

20 ETBE is back in fashion A stopgap for countries preparing ethanol logistics But still in use and growing in some locations Complements direct blending Helps meet targets In demand, regardless of mandates Ethanol global trade really opening up....and ETBE trade just starting to grow

21 LAUSANNE BRISBANE SANTOS LONDON BANGKOK

22

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